Show Me My Opponent, 2023 Maui Invitational: #1 Kansas

The Tournament of Death finally draws to a close

No GIFs today, sorry…running on a tight holiday schedule.

The 2023 Maui Invitational is a bloodbath disguised as a getaway. You think you’re flying out to Hawaii, gonna have a grand old time in the water. It’s such a beautiful place, after all, that you might momentarily forget you had a basketball game to win. The two teams in here lost against #2 and #4 in the AP Poll yesterday. Their reward: playing each other for the right to survive the Hawaiian Squid Game at 2-1 instead of 1-2.

For two teams that don’t share a conference and have pretty little in common, these two have a fascinating tendency to draw each other over and over, season after season. After never playing each other until a home-and-home series in 2009, this will be the eighth (!) meeting in 14 years. Tennessee and Kansas have tangled more frequently since 2009 than Kentucky/Indiana (6 times) and the same number of times as Memphis/Tennessee (8), both of which are actual non-conference rivalries. Tennessee and Kansas have actively chosen to schedule each other once; they simply keep finding one another on the court.

This will somehow technically only be the second highest-profile matchup between the two; the 2018 game featured #2 Kansas versus #5 Tennessee. Still, this is a relatively rare top-7 versus top-7 game in November…which will be the fourth game of this tournament alone to feature that. This is after both teams beat (or lost to) the current #2 and #4 teams in the poll yesterday.

Given the expectations of both coming in, Tennessee probably has slightly more to play for here, but it’s safe to say that at least one of the two anticipated being in today’s title game. Neither is, but this is still #1 versus #7 for the right to avoid a second early-season loss, and chances are it’ll be quite intense from start to finish. Get ready.

BELOW THE LINE ($): sorry but Dickinson would not really be that good of a WWE villain. You gotta have the ability to turn face as well as turn heel, if you’re just a heel forever everyone’s gonna hate you. Add a little depth to the character!

Kansas offense

Here is the difference between Kansas and all of the other programs in the world: they had a 1 seed last year, won 28 games, had a top-25 offense and defense, and still felt like they just achieved. Neither over or under, just there. Such are the joys of being a 1 or 2 seed in 13 of the last 16 tournaments and having a year where your 25th-ranked offense is deemed a mild disappointment.

With the opportunity to build anew thanks to a pair of key departures in Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick, Kansas hit the portal and has become very, very old. They have an average of 2.83 years of college experience among their rotation, the 16th-highest number in the sport. Of said eight-man rotation, six are juniors or seniors. I have a feeling you are well aware of who the best addition was.

Old foe Hunter Dickinson is back once more for a final ride in college. Dickinson sat #2 in KenPom’s POTY rankings at the time of writing and it would be inaccurate to tell you it’s undeserved. Dickinson was already an elite All-American level star at Michigan with a worse supporting cast; at Kansas he looks utterly unstoppable in a completely different way than Zach Edey. This is a guy who is 38% from three on 131 attempts for his career and 60% from two. Exactly two other 7+ footers - Frank Kaminsky and Chet Holmgren - have finished either their career or 2+ seasons with those numbers. It’s rarefied air.

Understandably, Kansas looks for a variety of ways to get Dickinson involved offensively. He gets a ton of post touches and is the main option in the KU ball-screen sets as the roller/popper. Something I’ve noticed Kansas really loves to do is to push the pace off of a missed shot. That tracks in general, but the new piece this year is Dickinson running directly to the low block and posting up. Within 10 seconds of a miss, Dickinson can have posted up, dribbled, and worked his way for an easy layup.

Most of what Kansas does on offense centers around Dickinson, but there are quite useful pieces surrounding him that deserve mention. Senior Kevin McCullar reportedly worked very, very hard on his shot over the summer, and while the results are still TBD I’ve always liked McCullar a lot more as a slasher type than any sort of shooting maven. He’s the leader of the extremely dangerous Kansas transition attack and perhaps the reason that Kansas is currently playing faster games than pretty much everyone else in the nation. McCullar is a two-way star, of which I like the defense more than the offense.

We’ve got to get to the other starters, all of whom are role players with well-defined roles. DaJuan Harris is the point guard that makes the engine run. Harris remains a frustrating watch from time to time with a high turnover rate, but he is a tremendous shooter (41% career 3PT) who remains the same low-usage, high-floor guy I have come to know. Freshman Elmarko Jackson has shared point duties with Harris; he is a very good shooter particularly off-the-dribble. KJ Adams Jr. is the rare 4 that doesn’t shoot threes but he fills his role of dunker + defender very well. (Blessings to him and his family, FWIW.)

There are many things to enjoy about this Kansas offense. They play fast, pass it very well, and get a ton of high-quality twos. They’re equally dangerous in half-court and in transition. You can’t overcommit to a ball-handler because both posts are super good and excellent at finishing at the rim. All of that is good…BUT. I do think I’ve still got unresolved questions about their perimeter shooting.

Kansas was shooting an insane 43% from deep so far - obviously awesome - but a lot of that was coming from unsustainable shooting numbers by Dickinson and Harris. ShotQuality’s got them closer to a ‘real’ 3PT% of 35%, which is still good but not the insane numbers posted so far. They don’t create a ton of open threes and their spacing is just fine. If Tennessee wants to let guys not named Harris or Nicolas Timberlake (38% career 3PT) shoot it then that’s largely going to be fine.

Where we’re at here is this: these guys can score inside, they play fast, and even their bad day yesterday from three was 6-17. Everything else - their horrid turnover margin, a lack of OREB impact, an overreliance on Dickinson/McCullar to save them - could be of question.

CHART!

Kansas defense

No surprise here: this is your standard Kansas defense. The fun part about tournaments like Maui is that your writer is doing this part of the blog the morning after watching KU/Marquette. The offensive part for both KU and Marquette was pre-written yesterday; the defense I decided to wait out to see who won.

For all of the freakout that last night’s result and the near-loss to Kentucky have brought I’d be more worried about the offense than the defense myself. Marquette did post 1.05 PPP, which is solid, but ranks as the Golden Eagles’ second-worst effort of the year so far. Kentucky scoring 84 on 83 possessions looks bad but was Kentucky’s own worst day of the season. One thing you can generally always count on with Bill Self is that he’s got numerous strategies to take away the things you like to do.

That being said Kansas might not be very good at taking away the things Tennessee specifically wants to do. UT has involved more ball screens in their offense than any other year under Rick Barnes thus far, and Self is a master at crafting strategies to force ball-handlers and screeners into really uncomfortable positions. At the same time, ball screens represent all of 18% of UT’s offense at the moment, so.

This is unsurprisingly a Kansas team that’s elite in post-up defense, given that they have Dickinson. They’ll also be great at defending ball screens. I also do not advise getting in 1-on-1 isolated situations unless it’s against one of their freshmen or Timberlake. What that leaves, however, is two things: off-ball screens and kickouts from the paint.

ShotQuality has Kansas 322nd (!) in defending off-ball screens and 242nd against catch-and-shoot threes. For all of the good they do pretty much everywhere else, they might be less than great against perhaps the two biggest pieces of the Tennessee offense.

Also, I would simply use some amount of ball screens. Tennessee isn’t Marquette and never will be, but they could reasonably be Kentucky. In that game, Kentucky went 5-out and forced Dickinson to vacate the paint to avoid giving up open jumper after open jumper. It ended up being pretty leaky, just like it was yesterday for a Marquette team that ended up scoring 1.27 PPP on possessions ending in a ball screen. That’s highly unusual for a Kansas defense, but it is not unusual for Dickinson, who’s main knock as a player for years has been pretty awful defensive capabilities in space.

How Tennessee matches up

I mean, depends on who’s on the whistle, no? And I’m not saying just for Tennessee but for both teams. Tennessee has eight high-major bodies that can hang in there right now with Dilione out and with Barnes either not trusting or not totally believing in Cam Carr yet. Kansas has seven and an eighth that they are desperately praying gets up to high-major speed in Timberlake.

If this is another officiating fiasco like yesterday - a game in which Purdue gave up more FTA than they had since 2019 and Tennessee since 1998 - then take nothing from it because walk-ons will be playing by the U4 media timeout. If it is an actual basketball game played between two basketball teams, then we can proceed.

Sorry about that. Anyway! Basketball game. As mentioned above Tennessee’s got a few advantages here to their favor that they should exploit. Watching a couple Kansas games I’ve yet to be terribly impressed by their ability to cover off-ball screens. Synergy has them in the 97th-percentile defending them…but actually watching the plays themselves, they are leading to lots of open looks from three. Barnes is masterful at scheming these up to free Tennessee’s wide variety of shooters. You simply figure that not all of them can be cold at the same time. Surely.

Inside the perimeter, I still think Kansas has been pretty good on the whole at defending ball screens, but it’s worth trying to get downhill at minimum. I also think that Tennessee shouldn’t give up on the post entirely just because Dickinson is down there. As good as Hunter is, I’m not aware of anyone in America that would deem him an Edey-like figure as a defender or as a rim protector. Considering that Michigan ranked 320th (!) and 159th in FG% allowed at the rim with him on the court the last two seasons, it ain’t Purdue. Is there really that much of a harm in feeding Awaka/Aidoo and seeing what happens in a one-off affair, especially if it’s whistle-happy?

Defensively, this is pretty much entirely about stopping Kansas in transition. If you can do that and force them into their half-court offense - still good but less lethal - you’re in position for a win. If this is a game Kansas gets to play in the 80s or above, this is a loss. For all of the goofy analysis one could provide in the world it basically boils down to that.

Expected starters + rotations

Key matchups

Hunter Dickinson vs. Jonas Aidoo. This is a second-straight unreal test for Aidoo as a rim protector that he’s unlikely to face in the SEC. On one hand, this is valuable experience; on the other, holy crap you’re playing #1 and #2 back to back with the two best offensive big men in the sport as your matchup. Give this man an ice bath.

Kevin McCullar Jr. vs. Variety Package. McCullar is a weird matchup in that he’s essentially a 6’7” shooting guard who can guard everyone from 1-4 on the court and sometimes the 5. Elite defender and troublesome piece if he’s on. Tennessee will throw a lot of matchups at him.

DaJuan Harris Jr. vs. Zakai Zeigler. Harris is a great shooter and a great passer but remains a bit of a problem spot in terms of turning the ball over. I do not think Zeigler can be as unbelievably horrid offensively as he’s shown thus far, the hope is that this is a turnaround game for him.

Three things to watch for

Jelly legs. This is the third game in three days, but more importantly, considering this game tips off at 2:30 ET it’s the second game in 18 hours for Tennessee and the second in 15 hours for Kansas, both who just took tough losses in which they got banged around a good bit. Who stands up better here? Does either team shoot well given the exhaustion? Give a player a chance and he’ll play seven games in a day, but he won’t be 100% by the third.

Points in the paint. Given what you knew about the two teams going in you would probably be pretty stunned to hear Marquette won the PITP battle 46-26. That does not happen against Kansas, at least traditionally. For the poop-show that was the Purdue game, Tennessee quietly hung in there against Edey and company until losing it 28-18. If Tennessee wins the paint this is a win, period.

Shooting variance. This is always on the books, but especially so given that 42% of KU’s opponent attempts are from three. Kansas also isn’t going to shoot 42% from deep for the season.

Three predictions

1. We get a relatively peaceful game with an O/U of 34.5 combined free throw attempts;

2. Tennessee wins the turnover battle by 4+;

3. Tennessee 72, Kansas 71. The ship, I’m going down with it. (Also I think UT is some combo of slightly less tired + more motivated given how the respective games went.)