Show Me My Opponent, 2023 NCAA Tournament: (5) Duke

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Tennessee lived out “survive and advance” to its fullest on Thursday by building a 48-30 lead over 13-seed Louisiana-Lafayette, nearly blowing it entirely, then hanging on to win 58-55. (Not really worth noting, but for context, it was 58-53 until a pointless buzzer-beater layup.) Did Tennessee put together a pretty performance? No, but they won. I imagine Arizona, Virginia, and Purdue would love to be able to say they played like garbage and won.

Duke, meanwhile, decimated 12-seed Oral Roberts 74-51 in a game that didn’t even feel that close. Any time you hold one of the best offenses in America scoreless for the first seven minutes of a game you’re putting yourselves on the public map. Duke’s played like the #2 team in America over their last ten games, per Bart Torvik, and they’re striking fear into the hearts of pretty much all potential oncomers.

The public is certainly on Duke’s side; as of the time of writing they were receiving a truly insane amount of bets and picks. But this is the NCAA Tournament, where the mere structure of the tournament serves as a reset. Ask Arizona and Texas A&M how well their hot starts carried them through the first round.

Coupled with 4-seed underdogs being 7-7 all-time, coupled with Tennessee’s status as the least-consistent team left in the field, coupled with the overwhelming amount of public steam headed Duke’s way…I don’t know, man. The NCAA Tournament simply has a way of surprising you. (PLEASE NOTE THE PREVIOUS SENTENCE WAS WRITTEN PRIOR TO THE EVENTS OF LAST NIGHT OMG AHHHHH) Or maybe this goes according to the wisdom of crowds and Duke wins by double digits.

BELOW THE LINE ($): survive, advance