Thanks for submitting quite a few questions over the last two days! Instead of answering them individually (I got quite a few by email), I figured it would be easier to capture them all in one full post. So: here are your questions, answered to the best of my ability. Also, thanks to those who put in multiple questions, which really filled out this post.
Why is Tennessee playing NC State in San Antonio? If it must be a neutral site, why not Asheville? Is this game part of a doubleheader or a larger tournament? - Greg W.
Tennessee’s doing this as part of the Hall of Fame game series, which is what they were a part of in 2021 (Texas Tech) and 2022 (Maryland). If that terrifies you on name value alone, it should; those were two of the worst Tennessee games to watch in modern history. And yes, Hall of Fame, at least as recently as this season, is contracted to use the Spalding Legacy TF-1000, the worst indoor basketball (non-Walmart division) in America. Here’s hoping it’s pumped up less?
As for neutral site, I’m surprised as well - this series actually has a date in Charlotte - but maybe they figured Charlotte was too close to NCSU. Plus, if you ever have a question about why something is happening, just assume that money is the answer. I have a post coming on why neutral site games actually aren’t bad for the quality of the game itself, but for fans, they’re a huge bummer.
When the time comes (and I'm not pushing for it), will UT fill Rick Barnes' position with one of his coaching disciples, or will they open the search for the best coach available for a reasonable price? - also Greg W.
I have no insight on Barnes’ timeline for when he does or doesn’t want to retire, but when the time comes, if Danny White is still Tennessee’s athletic director I’d be quite surprised if it wasn’t A) a full national search B) that had some surprising people on the board. Every White hire he’s made, basically since being an athletic director, has been focused on guys who play exciting styles of their sport. If you were judging purely based on that, Tennessee’s next head coach would be Pat Kelsey, currently at College of Charleston. Of course, this is just a guess.
I know we’ve been seeing this a lot in football in recent years, so for basketball… has there been any correlation in recruiting class success and on-court success? - Nathan O.
There’s a strong positive correlation - +0.72 - between the average recruiting talent on a college basketball roster and their analytical, on-court success. While there are outliers in both directions any given year, the top nine (!) teams in 2022-23 all ranked inside the top 25 in Bart Torvik’s Roster Talent metric, which is largely recruiting-based.
THAT BEING SAID, I do think it’s becoming harder to measure this in-season, when mid-major up-transfers can really shine. I remain skeptical on average of lower-end roster talent in March, but that’s going to require more work on my end to actually find out.
Who have been the most successful coaches (still coaching) since 2018? I’m especially curious if you were to subjectively rank them. Without Roy and Coach K, I wonder if this is a good chance to educate folks on the true elite coaches based on success in recent years. - Nathan O.
There are three ways to measure this:
What coaches have won the most games above what would be expected of their schedule;
What coaches have been the best analytically (large amount of crossover with #1, but with some differences);
What coaches have won the most games in March.
So, as a sick completist, here’s all three lists.
Wins Above Bubble, 2018-19 to present:
Bill Self (+43.9 wins above replacement)
Mark Few (+36.6)
Scott Drew (+30.2)
Kelvin Sampson (+28.7)
Matt Painter (+25.6)
Tom Izzo (+22.2)
Tony Bennett (+21.9)
Coach K (+21.6)
Rick Barnes (+20.7)
Jay Wright (+18.5)
The Best KenPom/Torvik Coaches, 2018-19 to Present
Mark Few
Kelvin Sampson
Coach K
Bill Self
Scott Drew
Matt Painter
Rick Barnes
Chris Beard
John Calipari (!)
Tony Bennett
The Best March Coaches, 2018-19 to Present
This is measured with Performance Above Seed Expectation (PASE), for what it’s worth. (Minimum of two bids across the four NCAATs observed.)
Jim Larranaga (+5.2 wins above seed expectation)
Greg McDermott (+3.2)
Chris Beard (+3)
Eric Musselman (+3)
Tom Izzo (+2.9)
Dana Altman (+2.6)
Mick Cronin (+2.6)
Jay Wright (+2.5)
Dan Hurley (+2.4)
Kelvin Sampson (+2.4)
To be honest, I think the third list is entirely useless. You have some unquestionable greats sprinkled in and about, obviously, but does any living person think Dana Altman is a better coach than Bill Self? The first two lists would be my go-to.
What makes a season interesting or compelling? Can you use stats to rank the most compelling seasons of all time? There's got to be some ratio of superstar freshman vs classically developed seniors that make particular seasons great. I'm thinking 1991-93 Fab Five vs Duke/UNC years have to rank pretty high. - Madison T.
This is a great idea for a future post - likely October? - but without using any stats to think about it too deeply, this is kind of what I look for in an average college basketball season. The thing is that they largely run together across history, meaning you need one of two items to really stand out:
A historical dominant figure at the top of the sport. Think 38-1 Kentucky, Gonzaga making it to the title game undefeated, or even the 2009-10 Duke team. Watching that team do its thing for a full 30+ games is interesting, but what it creates is a frenzy around the team that forces you to fall on one side or the other. Either you want that team to accomplish history, or you’re rooting for their demise. That’s inherently very interesting.
An unusually parity-filled year at the top. Like this past season! Was this the highest-quality season of basketball in modern history? Obviously not. But what that led to was a ton of different teams getting their shot at the top, a truly once-in-a-lifetime Final Four and title game, and a lot of fascinating events along the way.
What are you listening to these days? - Andy T.
The only 2023 release that’s really stuck with me at all is This Stupid World by Yo La Tengo, who are somehow still making really good music like 40 years into their career. They’re in Knoxville on Monday and I’m strongly considering an impulse purchase to go see them. Aside from that, the Taylor Swift catalog, Aphex Twin’s work from 1992 to 1998, Victoria Williams’ Loose (1994), Pacific Overtures (1976), and XFM Radio circa 2002-03 with Ricky Gervais, Stephen Merchant, and Karl Pilkington.
With the sports landscape largely done until late August minus baseball and the Women’s World Cup, what are you filling your time with? - my father
I usually watch the USWNT’s matches but am shamefully unfamiliar with basically every other team in the field minus England and some other players. I love using baseball as background noise, particularly while writing. Beyond that, I usually use the basketball offseason to catch up on missed shows or, you know, touch grass. I’m not nearly as invested or interested in college football as I once was but those in the know tell me this season should be more interesting than the previous ones, so I’ll keep track a little bit. And yes, father, I will be watching all 12 (+3?) Michigan football games so our Saturday texts can remain as frantic as they have been for years.