Survivor pool thoughts for the men's NCAA Tournament's opening two days
It does what it says on the tin
This is the last major piece I have planned. I had some watchlist concepts kicking around and pondered bringing those back, but honestly, every single Round of 64 game got a pretty extensive preview here.
I also strongly, strongly recommend reading the previews at Jordan Majewski’s site.
Beyond that, I may toss in some notes here and there in the below piece. It’s mostly an everyday ranking of games I would or wouldn’t consider for a survivor pool, now that these are becoming a bit more popular. If you’re getting a little tired of bracket life, survivor pools are a reasonable alternate to the puzzle. You pick a team each day, and you’re in it until the team you pick on a given day loses. These were my picks in 2024, for example:
THURSDAY: 1-seed North Carolina (won)
FRIDAY: 4-seed Duke (won)
SATURDAY: 3-seed Illinois (won)
SUNDAY: 5-seed San Diego State (won)
SWEET 16 THURSDAY: 2-seed Arizona (lost)
Not a bad result; 25th out of 180 in the pool I was in a year ago. You just keep going until the going stops.
I’ve seen a lot of articles out and about on survivor pool advice, presumably from people who are a lot more invested and/or smarter in this universe than I. But given that I have received several requests for this to be added to the usual pile of content pumped out around here. I don’t think this is worth keeping behind a paywall because anyone who’s already reading this is using the same sources, data, and concepts I am using, so here you go. I do still think you should sign up; this may well be the only free article left in the month.
For the purposes of this post, we’re assuming you’re in a pool with standard scoring: more points for a higher seed, but no second-chances (mulligans, etc. are apparently a thing in some of these) and PURELY straight-up picks. It is a life rule of mine that I do not and will not give betting advice, because I don’t bet. I am merely sharing some thoughts and ideas you may enjoy.
Thursday
All games listed in a category are just in order of the time they’re played, not in personal preference. I leave that part up to you.
AVOID
(1) Houston over (16) SIU Edwardsville.
(1) Auburn over (16) Alabama State.
Either (7) Kansas or (10) Arkansas.
(4) Texas A&M over (13) Yale.
(6) BYU over (11) VCU.
Either (6) Missouri or (11) Drake.
Either (7) UCLA or (10) Utah State.
(2) Tennessee over (15) Wofford.
Any seeds deeper than a 10, honestly. And even then.
None of these are worth anything. It’s pointless to pick either 1 seed here when both have reasonably advantageous second-round matchups, and all you’d get is the single point, anyway. I think 1 seeds can and should be saved for the Sweet Sixteen outside of unique circumstances, such as UNC’s unusually difficult draw last season. Tennessee is the one swing piece where I guess I could envision you really going for it, but of the 2 seeds in the field, they’re the one least likely to face their 3 seed (Kentucky) in the Sweet Sixteen. I would save them in the event that they draw an 11 or even perhaps for Saturday if Utah State wins. The entire point of this event is to survive and advance.
PONDER
(7) Louisville over (10) Creighton.
(5) Clemson over (12) McNeese.
(11) VCU over (6) BYU.
(8) Gonzaga over (9) Georgia.
(3) Texas Tech over (14) UNC Wilmington.
There are reasons you’d maybe pick one of these, but it’s only if they offer some extraordinary amount of value in your pool or if you’re desperate to be a contrarian. All of these (except the last one) are potential losers that do provide you a leg up on basically the entire field if they hit, but the risk is a >30% chance of losing with all of the first four listed. Texas Tech is here if you think they can/would lose their second-round game to either Missouri or Drake. I’d rather hold onto them in the event the bottom half of their bracket explodes than blow them here, but your call.
DO (IF YOU’RE WILLING)
(4) Purdue over (13) High Point.
(3) Wisconsin over (14) Montana.
(2) St. John’s over (15) Omaha.
All three have serious plus value in the Round of 64; all three have negative expected value (versus the average human’s bracket) in the Round of 32, though I am higher on Purdue than I think a lot of people are at this point.
Purdue in particular is an interesting one. Torvik gives them 83% odds to advance, but just 47% to make the Sweet Sixteen. Even with preseason weighting added - my personal favorite method - it’s still just 52%. This is the last reasonable chance you can take them unless Clemson surprisingly eats it. In the bracketing article, I mentioned that exactly two out of 73 teams with defenses outside of the KenPom top 200 have won a Tournament game, ever. High Point is 226th. While I’ve had issues with Purdue this year, offensive efficiency really isn’t one. This is the second-worst defense they’ve played all year; the five they played outside of the top 150 they utterly obliterated: 1.23 PPP, 61% from two, and 41% from three. If you think High Point is winning this game you think they’re holding the first top-50 team they’ve played in three years below 80 points, which…meh.
Wisconsin’s an easier sell. Montana, and the Big Sky in general, have had serious issues scaling up; against top-150 comp, Montana went 2-7 and rates as the 184th-best team in America, allowing a 59% hit rate on twos. I’m not in on Wisconsin long-term, but as a matchup this is pitch-perfect. Torvik’s odds paint the picture well: 91% to win this game, just 50% to make the Sweet Sixteen.
The Johnnies are more controversial of a pick here, but this is a sure(r) thing and their path to the Sweet Sixteen is either a Kansas team that rates out really well with preseason influence still involved or an Arkansas team that would have a 30% chance to beat them. I’d just take one of the top two but if everyone you know is taking one of the top two, this is a solid settle.
Friday
AVOID
Anything involving a potential Illinois game in either direction.
(8) Mississippi State or (9) Baylor.
(1) Duke over their 16-seed opponent.
(7) Saint Mary’s or (10) Vanderbilt.
(1) Florida over (16) Norfolk State.
(3) Kentucky over (14) Troy.
(7) Marquette or (10) New Mexico.
(8) UConn or (9) Oklahoma.
None of these provide any value. Kentucky is far too risky a pick in a game where Troy functionally has some kryptonite options that could keep it close. (They also have the worst odds of any 1-3 seed to win.) None of the 7s/10s or 8s/9s are worth the sweat. Save all of them for the highly-unexpected-but-perhaps-possible event of a 15 or 16 seed winning.
PONDER
(2) Alabama over (15) Robert Morris.
(12) Colorado State over (5) Memphis.
(11) North Carolina over (6) Ole Miss.
(5) Oregon over (12) Liberty.
I love none of these, but would understand at least somewhat the concept of each. Alabama projects to face a pretty difficult second-round battle against either a top-25 Saint Mary’s group that would dominate the shot volume game or a Vandy team that put up 87 on their defense. (Just don’t ask how many Vandy gave up.) If you want to take advantage of one of the rare times in history a 11 or 12 seed will be favored, you have Colorado State or North Carolina as options and could gain a huge leg up if you are supremely confident. Oregon/Liberty just isn’t that interesting to me as a basketball game, and Liberty has to play a very, very specific style of game to beat Oregon. Still, I just don’t think any of these are that great a pick compared to other options on the same day.
DO (IF YOU’RE WILLING)
(3) Iowa State over (14) Lipscomb.
(4) Maryland over (13) Grand Canyon.
(4) Arizona over (13) Akron.
(2) Michigan State over (15) Bryant.
All of the first three have pretty obvious rationale. Iowa State is down their second-leading scorer in Keshon Gilbert…who also has the lowest offensive efficiency, worst TO%, and sixth-best Box Plus-Minus on the team. I think the harm here is perhaps a tad overhyped. (It’s also a pretty bad scheme matchup for the Bisons.)
Maryland has been dominant all season long, but against the 11 Quad 3/4 teams they played, they shredded them to bits: +11.8 per 100 in turnovers, the 18th-lowest DREB% allowed, the 13th-lowest 2PT% allowed. Even if you add Quad 2 games in, they put an absolute pounding on teams like Grand Canyon all year long. This is somewhat risky in the sense that GCU has a sky-high FT Rate…but Maryland has been great at not fouling all year, and the one top-75 (!) defense GCU played all year (Georgia) held them to 44% 2PT/26% 3PT. It was only close because Georgia’s own offense was horrendous, which is not a problem Maryland generally brings to the table.
Arizona drew the best possible 13 seed in Akron for their style: a team that actually wants to run and gun and will simply bomb away instead of dealing with Arizona’s oversized frontcourt. Miyakawa’s numbers give the Wildcats a 92% chance of winning this game; no other 4 seed is above 80%. You’re probably guessing which direction I am going in, personally, especially with a plausibly tough R32 looming for the ‘Cats.
The last one here requires some explanation. I don’t think either Marquette or New Mexico are that bad a draw for Michigan State, and truthfully, the average Torvik/EvanMiya estimate of MSU at ~60% to see the second weekend may be a hair low. But at the same time, we know the stats on preseason unranked AP teams that get 1-2 seeds; none have seen the Final Four. MSU figures to hold a massive advantage over Bryant in round one. It’s a very low-risk pick, but if 3 and 4 seeds don’t move you for whatever reason, this is not the worst choice.
Round of 32
Just play whoever’s left. Pretty simple.
My actual thought here is to wait and see how the bracket plays out. If, say, 4-seed Maryland survives to the Sweet Sixteen but their 5-seed (Memphis) does not, you could take Maryland over a 12-seed on Sunday and have what should be a relatively calm afternoon. Or if 3-seed Kentucky eats it on Thursday, you could take 6-seed Illinois (as an example) on Saturday to earn six points and keep going.
The easy part, in my experience, is this round. You usually have at least one or two obviously goofy matchups you can exploit. (For example, I probably would’ve suggested you take 11-seed UCLA over 14-seed Abilene in 2021 when that game existed.) Beyond that, it gets difficult. What’s the old adage? Survive and advance? I hear you should consider doing that in these pools.
Gonna need some weekend picks lol 🫡
Survived days 1 & 2