First two free, second two paid for all of $12/year. You know the drill.
Onward.
(1) Alabama (-7.5) vs. (5) San Diego State, 6:30 PM ET, TBS
On one hand it’s very easy to look at this and think Alabama’s gonna have a massive athletic advantage. I am not aware of something that immediately makes that wrong, though SDSU has a serious physicality advantage. Even so, Alabama profiles as the second-best team remaining in the field besides Houston. They have the best player left in Brandon Miller. It’s a top-three defense with the very best interior defense the sport has to offer this year. For all the attention the offense gets it’s the defense that pushes them onward.
San Diego State may have the opposite dynamic going on. Their defense gets all the attention for good reason, but this is an offense that crashes the boards, racks up foul calls on opponents, and does a good job of not turning the ball over. They have a Bucket Getter in Matt Bradley, who can score at all three levels really well. They’ve got three plus shooting options (Bradley, 44% shooter Adam Seiko, Micah Parrish) to go with a pair of guys who can get extremely hot or extremely cold in Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler.
What this comes down to is a game of pace in all likelihood. Alabama’s far better at scoring on shorter possessions than longer ones; their eFG% of 45.4% on possessions lasting longer than 15 seconds ranks in the mid-200s. If San Diego State - the very best team in America at limiting transition opportunities - limits Alabama’s transition opportunities, they are going to have a really good chance to pull off an upset. If they don’t, and Alabama gets to play this game in the 70s or even 80s, it’s a loss.
The X-factor here is Alabama’s turnover problem, which is indeed a problem. SDSU projects to have a +3 or higher TO edge here, and if it gets to +5 or above I think Alabama is in real trouble. Their guards have flirted with disaster with the ball in their hands all year, and SDSU profiles as a team that both forces turnovers and doesn’t give many of them away.
Prediction: This falls directly under the Styles Make Fights category. It’s very, very hard to out-run Alabama, and while the Tide have actually been slightly more efficient in slower-paced games, this profiles very strongly with the likes of their losses to Tennessee and UConn. I cannot shake the feeling this is simply One Of Those Games even before factoring in Brandon Miller not being 100%. San Diego State 68, Alabama 66.
I am rooting for: Who do ya think.
(1) Houston (-7.5) vs. (5) Miami (FL), 7:15 PM ET, CBS
Houston faced a real crossroads on Saturday: either end a dream opportunity in the Round of 32 against a mid Auburn team or nut up, despite the injuries, and make a run for it. They’re still here because against what’s genuinely a fairly physical Auburn team, Houston completely manhandled them in the second half to the tune of a 50-23 extended 20-minute run.
Miami, meanwhile, escaped Drake in a game they were lucky to escape from followed by decimating Indiana. Miami generates a lot of catch-and-shoot looks and a lot of attempts at the rim, which is frankly not an ideal formula against a Houston team built to deny post touches and easy paint points along with guarding threes super well. I think Miami could have something of a Problem in Norchad Omier if he’s on again, though, as Jarace Walker and Houston’s other forwards can struggle in 1-on-1 space from time to time.
The path to an upset here is one of Miami either shooting the lights out on tough looks or Houston going cold, both of which could feasibly happen. But this projects to be a game where Houston possesses a serious advantage both on the boards and in ball control, and that’s a problem if you’re a Miami team that hasn’t generally been built to take advantage of teams with fouling issues like Houston.
Prediction: I’ve faded this Miami team for a while, and if I keep pressing the dadgum button eventually it will be right. Houston 72, Miami 60.
I am rooting for: Houston, but not out of spite; Miami is a very fun team to watch.