The 2024 Selection Sunday viewing guide

What 2 Watch 4

Well, look, let’s keep this short. I have four! articles planned for this Selection Sunday and am trying to get two of them out before the actual games start, so no need to screw around here. Today’s posts are all FREE but usually you have to be a paid subscriber. Click below.

Okay let’s roll.

Who are the 1 seeds?

I don’t honestly find much intrigue in the overall 1 seed this year - it will likely be Connecticut, but even if it was Purdue or somehow Houston, they would all be heading to their region of choice regardless. There are no obvious competitors to ‘steal’ their spots, and they were all 1-seed locks weeks ago.

The fourth 1-seed battle is going to be between:

• North Carolina, who entered Saturday as the clear favorite but blew one of the easiest opportunities they had left to NC State in the ACC title game.

• Iowa State, who has a higher Wins Above Bubble, ranks better in KenPom, more Q1 wins, the same Q1/Q2 record, and three fewer losses to Q2 opponents.

• Tennessee, who really should be dead in the water here but may not be thanks to literally everyone blowing it. Tennessee out-ranks UNC in KenPom and has the same number of Q1-A wins as Iowa State while holding a stronger KPI ranking.

If forced to guess I’d lean UNC getting it by a hair because it’s the path of least resistance.

Who gets the last protected seeds?

A relatively easy thing to say is that everyone in this screenshot will be a 1-4 seed.

The problem is you need 16, not 13. And I genuinely have no idea where one goes from this.

Purely by best resume, it should be Auburn, South Carolina, and Kansas. I will assume that’s not how it goes, because it isn’t that easy. If you were ranking by NET, you would go Auburn, Alabama, BYU. But two of those teams got absolutely smoked in their final game(s). There’s also Florida, who can win the SEC today, or St. Mary’s (CA), who has played like a top 10 team since December 1, or even Wisconsin, who can win the Big Ten today.

Who are the last four byes?

This means the four teams in the field who AREN’T in the First Four. And boy I’ve got no clue.

My rule of thumb is as follows: if you’re in every single bracket of the Bracket Matrix AND above a 10 seed, you’re in. Exclude New Mexico from this screenshot, as they’re MWC champs, and you have to find five teams from a pack of nine to not be in the First Four.

We’re about to get the strangest First Four in history, but the teams that avoid it will almost exclusively be 9 seeds for the first time in history, too. Again, if you were doing this by resume alone Colorado, FAU, Virginia (not in the projected field), Mississippi State, and Northwestern would be the safe teams…but, well, I have no clue and neither do you.

Who are your First Four teams?

Let’s repeat the above screenshot but add the actual first few out.

If you were truly ranking the field by strength of resume, the following nine teams would make the field of 68.

• Colorado (9 seed)

• FAU (9 seed)

• Virginia (9 seed)

• Mississippi State (9 seed)

• Northwestern (10 seed)

• Texas A&M (10 seed, First Four)

• Oklahoma (10 seed, First Four)

• Colorado State (10 seed, First Four)

• Indiana State (10 seed, First Four)

Which would lead to a truly bonkers week of discourse. Look at who wouldn’t be in that projected field: TCU, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Providence, and St. John’s. If you were ranking by Wins Above Bubble:

• Indiana State (9 seed)

• Colorado (9 seed)

• Northwestern (9 seed)

• Colorado State (9 seed)

• TCU (10 seed)

• Virginia (10 seed, First Four)

• FAU (10 seed, First Four)

• Oklahoma (10 seed, First Four)

• Seton Hall (10 seed, First Four)

Or they choose to order these teams by NET for the first time in modern history because they don’t know what else to do:

• Michigan State (9 seed)

• Colorado (9 seed)

• Indiana State (9 seed)

• Mississippi State (9 seed)

• St. John’s (10 seed)

• Colorado State (10 seed, First Four)

• FAU (10 seed, First Four)

• Pittsburgh (!!) (10 seed, First Four)

• TCU (10 seed, First Four)

Or they’re really into Torvik and they use the Resume Rankings:

• Providence (9 seed)

• Seton Hall (9 seed)

• Oklahoma (9 seed)

• TCU (9 seed)

• Colorado State (10 seed)

• Mississippi State (10 seed, First Four)

• Northwestern (10 seed, First Four)

• Michigan State (10 seed, First Four)

• St. John’s (10 seed, First Four)

I think through four different tools, we managed to get all of the plausible-ish 15 teams into the field for 9 spots. For your own sanity and mine, save the below image to your phone and use it as a checklist. I believe it’s printable, too. To be honest, I added Princeton just in case. It would be bonkers, but 24-4 is 24-4.

Which 16 seeds go to the First Four?

Less exciting, but we probably have seven-ish teams in contention for the 16 seed line in the first place.

• Longwood (Big South)

• St. Peter’s (MAAC)

• Montana State (Big Sky)

• Stetson (ASun)

• Wagner (NEC)

• Howard (MEAC)

• Grambling (SWAC)

Purely by resumes, it should be Howard vs. Wagner in one game and Grambling vs. Montana State in the other. Is that how it will go? No clue. We’ve also seen the committee default to “which one of you is closest to Dayton” in previous years, which could be fortunate for Montana State.

Who goes to what Round of 64/32 location?

Most of these are likely decided, but it bears repeating as to what the locations are/who may or may not be headed there.

Thursday/Saturday

Charlotte: 99% likely to be Tennessee and North Carolina.

Omaha: Iowa State will get one spot here. Who gets the other? It could be any of Marquette, Illinois, Kansas, even Baylor.

Pittsburgh: This is likely to be a second-choice location for most schools in the field, so I don’t feel comfortable taking a guess here. It will likely be 3 or 4 seeds.

Salt Lake City: Arizona is locked in here, but the other is anyone’s guess. The SLC hosts are likely praying BYU somehow gets a 4 seed because they’d be an easy draw.

Friday/Sunday

Brooklyn: UConn will be here, and I think it’s pretty likely the other team is Duke. The Blue Devils seem to be a probable 3 seed, and no one else on the top 3 lines is closer than they are. Plus, they’d likely rather go there than Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis: Purdue and likely Marquette. The only potential upset here is if Illinois leaps Marquette in seeding order, which isn’t likely to happen.

Memphis: Houston and someone - could be any of Baylor, Illinois, Kansas, Auburn, Alabama, or Kentucky. I also will not 100% rule out Tennessee going here, too.

Spokane: Two 4 seeds, likely the last two on the seed list.