The anatomy of the James Madison/Michigan State upset
Or, how I learned to stop worrying and love shooting variance
Happy Wednesday! Again, still trying to figure out a flow for these weekly posts, but I think that some combo of the following:
The weekly watchlist
A review of a game
Some sort of statistical exploration
A profile of a team, or player, that is interesting to me
Various lists
The two Tennessee previews each week (sorry to all NCAA/non-UT readers, but I am contractually obligated by God to do this)
and, come January-ish, NCAA Tournament lookaheads
Will serve as a good five-posts-per-week model. I may also begin posting some notes I take from the previous night’s games on Twitter the morning after. We’ll see how it works as the season goes on, but we’ll pull from a large pile of ideas and concepts particularly at the start of the season.
Given that this is already the fourth (!) post of the week on this newsletter, I think it’s timely to take a look back at the game that has the college basketball world buzzing. You know the one.
James Madison, a 17-point underdog, beat #4 Michigan State in overtime Monday night. This isn’t the biggest MSU home upset of the Izzo era, considering they once lost to Texas Southern, and it is far from the worst team Izzo has ever lost to. But because this was the very first game of the season, this was a top-5 Izzo group, and this was the first-ever Izzo home loss in November, this game has taken on outsized importance.
Fling a search at the proverbial Twitter wall and you’re bound to hit a take in literally every direction. Michigan State is the most overrated college basketball program of the last two decades. Michigan State losing is Actually Good, and they are even MORE going to the Final Four. They even did it before! MSU has a hard ceiling with their current lineup. (I do agree somewhat with that one.) James Madison = FAU. Being old is…bad? Sure! If you look hard enough you might be able to find someone saying that James Madison is, uh, Beto O’Rourke. I don’t know, it’s all possible.
That’s a lot of talk for a three-point loss to a team that seems likely to end the year in KenPom’s top 100. I would offer the following take: this is actually good for both teams. I’ll offer more below the paywall.