The August Loss

some hoots, no hollers

March 23 (Sweet Sixteen): (9) Florida Atlantic 62, (4) Tennessee 55 (25-11, season over)

Well, the title of The Most Uniquely Unsatisfying Sporting Experience in the World was already taken. Plus, it’s not like attending a March Madness game is actually bad, as I was reminded of earlier this week. They don’t run ads during game breaks, the dance teams and bands have little battles, and you don’t live in fear of being featured on the Ted Russell Nissan Buick Jason Ferris Dealer FORRRRR The People Flex Cam. Or whatever it is game ops has to debase themselves with now.

Last year’s end of season post was a pretty loving one because by the end of the season, I think everyone agreed that team was quite lovable. Today, no one can agree whether they ever liked the team, if this was a likable team, if they were enjoyable to watch, or if anything beyond the Duke win and a couple of the marquee victories (Kansas/Texas/Alabama) really united anyone.

I do think there’s some common ground to be had here. Tennessee probably appropriately achieved to what the roster dictated they should’ve prior to the Tournament beginning. Not having Zakai Zeigler indeed ended up being the fatal blow in a game where the only Tennessee guard that could pressure the paint last played point at age 15. Expectations get raised when you do what Tennessee did the first three months, but given how awful the final month-plus was a Sweet Sixteen is, in a more rational setting, an okay outcome.

But.

In another sense: 9 seed opponent. In another: led by nine in the first half. In another: led 39-33 with 13 minutes to go in a game you were favored by five points. In another.

In another.

In another, and another, and another, the latest in a line of seemingly endless kicks to the nuts. In the immediate aftermath there were only two plausible explanations in my mind.

1. Tennessee, and Rick Barnes, are a deeply flawed postseason program that somehow is immensely different from what you see from November to February.

2. Tennessee is cursed by God for something they must have done in a different life.

I have no idea which explanation makes more sense because I’ve seemingly lost the ability to think through this rationally. Well, almost entirely. There is a third plausible explanation.

3. This loss was accumulated months ago by various roster construction decisions and/or flaws, none of which were overlooked or even naively thought-about but could be taken as philosophical shortcomings. Or something.

And that is about as good as I can do. You can point to some other stuff. Tennessee copped a couple of goofy foul calls; FAU got to be a little handsy. But then again, that’s what Tennessee wanted: a loosely-called game. Sometimes you get shooting-varianced out of this event like going 11% a year ago, but FAU ended up shooting 30% from three while Tennessee went 26%. Not that huge of a difference-maker, really.

So it comes down to some certain shortcomings in the offseason, some of which were controllable, some of which weren’t, and some of which could be a philosophical problem. That’s why this is titled The August Loss, because it is as close to a realistic explanation as I think is possible.

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This is by no means a ranking but rather an attempted diagnosis of How We Got Here. Take it lightly because it’s got all the perspective that 12 hours post-loss can provide.

The only guard on Tennessee’s roster that could attack the paint was on a scooter. Zakai Zeigler got injured, which is obviously no fault of his own or anyone within the program because you cannot predict an injury. Obviously. But this is not about Zakai Zeigler. Here’s a full list of the players on 2022-23 Tennessee that attempted 50+ shots at the rim and 50+ threes:

• Olivier Nkamhoua (power forward/center)

• Zakai Zeigler (point guard)

That’s the entire list. That’s where the problem begins. The SEC is far from a guard-first conference; it had 27 guards, Zeigler included, that achieved that 50/50 shooting split. Every other team had their player available for March. Tennessee did not. It’s not about Zeigler, though, again. This is about not having a second option.

Tennessee attempted to get Yuri Collins through the portal from Saint Louis. It did not work out, for reasons that I have been advised by SbW Legal to not report on. That’s one thing. They brought in BJ Edwards, who was either not good enough or not ready enough. I figure that the staff knew the possibility of Edwards turning into Zeigler 2.0 wasn’t all that likely, and frankly what we saw of Edwards this year was profoundly unimpressive, particularly on defense.

So you swing and miss on Collins. Fine. There’s plenty of other ball-handling and/or slashing guards in the portal. I would have strongly considered going for another option, if for no other reason than to provide bench support. Tyreke Key was their shot at this in the portal and it was a clear misevaluation.

None of the Tennessee bigs were at the level they needed to be for Tennessee to function. The best big this year ended up being Olivier Nkamhoua. Torvik’s PRPG! thing isn’t perfect but for offensive value I find it useful. It rates Nkamhoua out as roughly equivalent to 2020-21 John Fulkerson, who was fine but definitely not that special. In the SEC this year, Nkamhoua rated out as the 12th-best frontcourt player in the league.

Not to be rude, but that wasn’t and isn’t good enough. This was after a season where Tennessee’s best big man was Fulkerson, who rated out 18th in PRPG. Nkamhoua was coming off an injury; Plavsic was Plavsic; Aidoo was still improving; any sort of contribution from Awaka was a bonus. I imagine they were aware that frontcourt production was a question mark.

It’s easy to say from my perch in the arena where I’m not in the locker room, but it may have been useful to find something more instantaneous in the portal. Johni Broome was available, or if you wanted a quality shooting big (of sorts) Felipe Haase was available from Mercer. In the biggest game of the year, Tennessee’s bigs combined for 24 points on 24 shots and 12 rebounds across 64 minutes. Not good enough.

The shooting never quite showed. This is less on the staff to me. Zeigler hasn’t shot as efficiently as he did in HS; Phillips the same; Vescovi had the shoulder injury; JJJ did his JJJ thing; Key ended up shooting 33% after a career of shooting 37% from deep so not far off. Tennessee needed any one of those guys (or someone else) to have a 40% or better season and they didn’t.

I still think there’s something to going hunting for various mid-major types that are plus shooters. On Torvik right now there’s 22 players listed who A) attempted 100+ threes and B) shot 40% or better. Go get one with the NIL money on your side.

Commitment to double-big lineups. Strangely I also can’t totally put this on decision-makers. Tennessee sustained a ton of bad injury luck this year and got to play nine games with a fully-healthy roster. The preseason top lineup of Zeigler/Vescovi/Phillips/James/Nkamhoua got a total of 90 possessions together and none in March.

That being said, the amount of time Tennessee played lineups with any two of Aidoo/Awaka/Plavsic together was alarming; they averaged about 10 possessions a game together. That genuinely should have been zero, because in 2023 basketball you cannot play multiple non-shooters together against smart teams and get away with it for long. They played two of Nkamhoua/Awaka/Plavsic together 31% of the time, which was a lineup that both looked and felt like a spacing disaster.

Rick Barnes is a tremendous coach that, for better or for worse, is committed to playing two bigs at once. I fundamentally disagree, but he has won 775 more games than I have. If you want to win more, particularly in March, either find a real stretch 4 that attempts 4+ threes a game or stop playing two bigs together.

Tennessee’s taken a step forward in shooting/offensive philosophy but still has a ways to go. So Tennessee attempted 63 shots in this game, or 13 more than FAU. On its face that’s a thing I can get behind. The problem when you break it down is pretty obvious, though. Via StatBroadcast:

• Rim: 8-for-11

• Midrange: 7-for-29

• Three: 6-for-23

In the biggest game of the year, Tennessee reverted to old habits. Synergy’s stats are a hair different but not dissimilar. They’ve got Tennessee at 18 true mid-range jumpers last night (plus a variety of floaters/runners/hook shots), the most they’d accumulated in a game since the 46-43 Auburn disasterpiece.

Either way, it’s not an acceptable outcome. FAU forces a lot of midrange twos in their defensive system, but against the smallest team they’ve played in months Tennessee seemingly refused to attack the paint or get to the rim. Why? Well, it gets back to points one and two, and in point three where you can’t shoot well or point four where your bigs shrink on-court spacing, it’s a flat circle.

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All this being said, I do think there’s things this team did everyone can be proud of. The win over AP #1 Alabama was fabulous; the wins over Kansas, Texas, and Duke were very memorable and lovely moments. You got to see the team rally behind Zeigler after his season-ender. You got the week of anticipation and talking about being in the mud and slopping around like wet pigs.

I still had a great time writing about them because doing this Substack is a great time in itself. It is not about me, though, it is about the team. In the end this was a roster with serious flaws that I willingly glossed over because said island of misfit toys created the most killer defense I’ve ever seen at Tennessee. On the nights when they hit shots you could see what the vision for this year was.

It’s both a success and a mild failure; one with things you can be pretty happy with but one where you’re still thinking about how it could’ve gone a little better at year’s end. Such is life as a viewer of a non-blue blood: there’s gonna be flaws, and maybe one day those flaws will be small enough to finally cook up a Final Four run. All you can do is be good, over and over, until you finally break through. Tennessee has that part down pat. We’ll see next March whether they have fixed some of the structural and roster issues to get to the next level.

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Well…BULLETS! I guess.

THANK YOU! Seriously. Whether you’re a Tennessee supporter, hater, a neutral, or somewhere in between, this Substack has gone far further than I thought it would in season one. I’m greatly looking forward to finishing out this season, doing some offseason content every couple of weeks, and running it back in November. It’s the most positive I’ve felt towards my writing career in my entire life. Thank you for supporting the concept.

The future. Well, gotta talk about it. From top to bottom:

• STAFF: Justin Gainey was a serious candidate at High Point and may still be; he’s a rising star of sorts in the coaching world. Rod Clark will get an HC gig one day. I don’t know if that time is now, but if Tennessee enters 2023-24 with the same staff intact it would be a mild surprise. I do think Tennessee’s got to appoint an offensive coordinator in the same way Barnes gave Schwartz, then Gainey, the role of defensive coordinator. We’ll see what they do in that regard; I am unaware of who the ideal fit for that would be, so don’t ask yet.

• BACKCOURT: Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack are obviously both back. I haven’t heard one way or the other on BJ Edwards or DJ Jefferson, though the staff is high on both I think. Tyreke Key is out of eligibility. James and Vescovi are question marks to use their COVID year. I would deem James more likely than Vescovi to do so but one/both/neither are on the table. Freddie Dillione, of course, will now be eligible to play. Cameron Carr could be a potential contributor? Uncertain.

• FRONTCOURT: Julian Phillips is gone, likely to the NBA. The Athletic has consistently had him as a late first-rounder/early second-rounder and some GM’s gonna look at that 6’8” frame and the lockdown defense and say “we can work with that.” Beyond that, Tobe Awaka and Jonas Aidoo should be back barring a shocker. Uros Plavsic and Olivier Nkamhoua both have a COVID year to use. Not sure what goes on there; if Tennessee wants to move on from one or both I don’t think I’d be surprised. Plavsic in particular seems to really irritate Barnes, which, well. JP Estrella and Cade Phillips both enter the roster but I’d favor Estrella as the more immediate contributor.

• PORTAL: No leads here that I can report on, I’ll leave that to the various team sites. But I think we’ve laid out our case here. Tennessee needs a PG that can at least play 15-20 a night. They need a Real Shooter. They should pour the NIL money upon Jaekwon Walton from Wichita but I don’t know if they’re even in on him.

Well. Well:

ShotQuality @Shot_Quality

‼ SQ UPSET ‼ 🔺 Actual Score: Florida Atlantic 62-55 Tennessee 🔺 ShotQuality Score: Florida Atlantic 62-65 Tennessee Based on the quality of shots taken: 🔺 Florida Atlantic would win 39% of the time 🔺 Tennessee would win 61% of the time

What do you even say. I mean on one hand, I guess so? On the other I keep looking at the part where it looks like Tennessee put up a 15th-percentile performance in quality of shots and say “well.” Well.

The flagrant. Long time coming, no? I initially thought they’d totally blown it but TBS showed the wrong replay. I won’t repost here because it’s violent and you’ve already seen it, but the foul Uros Plavsic committed was pretty disgusting. There is no room for that in the game, sorry.

The rest of the tournament. More daily previews coming, more NCAAT-wide content.

Rational perspective. Maybe at a later date? Kinda tired of writing. Offseason it is.