The Big Six schedule awards

Those among us who schedule up...and those who schedule way, way down

While we’re still nearly four months away from the beginning of the college basketball season, we’re zero days away from teams beginning to publicly release their completed non-conference schedules. The amazing D1Docket on Twitter keeps track of all of the releases, and I highly recommend a follow. It was D1Docket who alerted me to perhaps the single most stunning moment of the offseason: Texas A&M releasing a good non-conference schedule.

I’ve made fun of A&M’s atrocious non-conference slate every year since Buzz Williams took the job. It makes them impossible to evaluate prior to, like, January 15. I find it deeply annoying. Naturally, A&M fans love it. (Credit to them for liking the tougher schedule though.) Anyway, this created a little thought bubble in my head: what’s the best way to measure year-over-year schedule difficulty?

Sure, one could craft an average Strength of Schedule based on a five-year run of play, but I’m not sure that’s the best way to do it. So: I present to you the Will Warren Schedule Delta. It is a very simple equation that measures how far you’ve gone out of your own way to put together a tough(er) schedule. It goes as such:

1. The percentage of non-conference games in which you, Team, played Top 100 opponents;

2. The percentage of non-conference games in which you played Quadrant 4 opponents;

3. 1 minus 2 for your Schedule Delta.

With that in mind, I set out to find the teams who’ve made the most of their schedule opportunities, as well as those who put together profoundly uninteresting schedules every season.

For the purposes of sanity, I restricted eligible entrants to this list to be teams who were top 100 teams themselves over the last five seasons, per Bart Torvik’s website. Also also, there will be a comment I’m sure will be made by some about the criteria here: what about the neutral-site tournaments? That’s fine and all; I did not directly include who goes on the road here. (Though we’ll touch on that at the end as a bonus bit.) Still, if - like two of our entrants here - you’ve played 34 Top 100 teams in non-conference play over the last five seasons, neutral sites really do not factor in much at all.

Dialed-Up Difficulty

5. Villanova

• Total non-conference games: 53

• Top 100 opponents: 25 (47.2%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 13 (24.5%)

• Schedule Delta: +22.7%

Not that one could really have many complaints about Jay Wright’s program, but even finding one about their schedule isn’t on the list. COVID year excluded (when they still managed three Top 100 opponents in just six non-con outings), Villanova has averaged almost six Top 100 games in November/December each season. They play nearly double the amount of games against high-end competition as they do obvious pushovers.

We’ll see how this continues to progress under Kyle Neptune. Last year’s Villanova team only drew four Top 100 opponents paired with two Quadrant 4 games, but they took a true road trip to Michigan State and took on top-30 Iowa State/top-45 Oregon at neutral sites. They didn’t have a signature opponent like they usually do, but it was still pretty solid. This year, they head to the Battle 4 Atlantis (featuring UNC, Michigan, Arkansas, Memphis, and Oklahoma) along with having a pair of games against Maryland and Kansas State. Oh, and they’ll play a home game against UCLA. We should learn pretty quick what Neptune and his team are made of, just like we used to be able to do with Wright.

4. North Carolina

• Total non-conference games: 55

• Top 100 opponents: 28 (50.9%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 15 (27.3%)

• Schedule Delta: +23.6%

No surprise here. This is no worse than a top-5 brand in college basketball if not higher, but unlike some fellow blue bloods - hello Kentucky, hello Duke - North Carolina really doesn’t fill out its home schedule with patsy after patsy.

UNC’s 15 non-conference Quadrant 4 opponents are the fourth-fewest of any team since 2018, and while it honestly might benefit them from time to time to play a walkover, they rarely actually do it. UNC played a singular non-conference home game against a team outside of the top 200 in NET last year (The Citadel) counter-balanced with eight games against Top 100 competition. Now, UNC doesn’t make many true road trips in non-conference play, but 28 games is 28 games, regardless of venue. They schedule up.

3. Oklahoma

• Total non-conference games: 58

• Top 100 opponents: 30 (51.7%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 16 (27.6%)

• Schedule Delta: +24.1%

Now this is a real surprise. When I think of teams that generally schedule super-hard in college hoops, Oklahoma really isn’t the first team that comes to mind. And yet: I am very clearly wrong. Oklahoma played five road or neutral-site games against Top 100 competition last year before Christmas. When coupled with their insane Big 12 run of opponents, it’s no surprise that the Sooners have posted a top-10 strength of schedule for eight straight non-COVID seasons.

Oklahoma’s part of the Battle 4 Atlantis this year, which should guarantee them no fewer than two Top 100 opponents. They’ve signed up to play Providence as well. Along with that, they inked a deal to play in a Thanksgiving tournament in San Diego against two of Iowa, Seton Hall, and USC. Again: all before they play in the Big 12, a conference Torvik projects to have 13 of 14 teams in the national top 70.

2. Kansas

• Total non-conference games: 59

• Top 100 opponents: 34 (57.6%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 14 (23.7%)

• Schedule Delta: +33.9%

There’s a huge gap between our top two and the rest of college basketball, but if you’ve followed Kansas at all over the last half-decade, it’s no shocker to see them up here. Bill Self puts together an insane non-conference schedule every single year, again before playing an insane conference schedule in the Big 12. No blue blood schedules harder.

Last year, Self may have overdone it, and it still resulted in a 12-1 non-conference record. Kansas did play three Quadrant 4 home games…which were countered by games against Duke, NC State, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Seton Hall, Missouri, Indiana, and Kentucky, all of whom finished 61st or higher. The Jayhawks have won KenPom’s #1 Overall Strength of Schedule Award, an award I just made up, two straight years. They’re likely the odds-on favorite to do it a third year in a row.

1. Alabama

• Total non-conference games: 61

• Top 100 opponents: 34 (55.7%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 10 (16.4%)

• Schedule Delta: +39.3%

For all of the complaints one could make about Nate Oats - hi - I will never complain about the way he chooses to utilize his Novembers and Decembers. No team in college basketball, over the last five seasons, has been more committed to getting the very most out of their non-conference schedule than the Tide. Kansas plays a slightly higher percentage of games against high-end competition, but the way Alabama schedules their home buy games is honestly beyond reproach. Look at this slate of opponents from 2021-22 as an example:

12 games, plus a January home date with #4 Baylor, not a single true cupcake among them. Even last year’s schedule, which did feature #233 Jacksonville State and #304 Jackson State, saw Alabama play seven of their first 11 games against top 50 opponents. This year, Alabama is expected to play all of the following: Clemson, Creighton, Purdue, Arizona, Ohio State, and Oregon. Those should be six top 50 teams, and it’s not including Oats’ ability to somehow find hyper-competitive mid-majors for home games year after year. He’s got a gift for scheduling.

Cupcake Cafe

5. Rutgers

• Total non-conference games: 45

• Top 100 opponents: 10 (22.2%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 25 (55.6%)

• Schedule Delta: -33.3%

This is a program I’d argue deserves a little sympathy here. After all, if I am another Big Six coach and I think of Rutgers, I am pondering two things:

1. The fact they play hard as hell and are extremely annoying (which is a compliment);

2. The fact that I want no part of that unless it’s part of a neutral-site tournament.

Rutgers does not sell tickets, so you can’t schedule them for your home games. Rutgers does not sell tickets, so you probably won’t see them in many headlining neutral-site tournaments of note. Rutgers does sell tickets…for their home games, at an arena that basically every single Big Ten coach who’s been on the job for 3+ years has publicly stated they despise playing at. It might be the premier no-win situation on the books.

That being said, 10 top 100 opponents in five years for a Big Ten program is pathetic. The conference average in this timespan was 18. Now that Rutgers is an every-year bubble fixture, one would think it’s wise to schedule harder so people care less about how many Quadrant 4 teams you played on Selection Sunday. Steve Pikiell, brother, I like you a lot, please do this one thing to be more serious.

4. Texas Tech

• Total non-conference games: 61

• Top 100 opponents: 18 (29.5%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 39 (63.9%)

• Schedule Delta: -34.4%

On the other hand, this is pathetic. Texas Tech is a team that went to the national championship game not even five years ago. They’ve missed one of the last five Tournaments. They’re going to make the 2024 NCAA Tournament because they hired a great head coach. They have one of the best home-court environments in the nation when Big 12 play rolls around and the team is any good at all.

The problem is that their home games are ignorable until January because the Red Raiders - first under Chris Beard, then under Mark Adams - have steadfastly refused to bother with anything resembling an interesting or difficult non-conference schedule. No Big Six team has played more Quadrant 4 opponents since 2018. Last year’s team alone played nine. Alabama has played 10 total in the last five seasons. Tech has played two true road games in November/December in the last six years. Here’s hoping Grant McCasland at least tries a little.

3. Northwestern

• Total non-conference games: 43

• Top 100 opponents: 10 (23.3%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 27 (62.8%)

• Schedule Delta: -39.5%

This is more or less Great Lakes Rutgers, at least on the basketball side. Northwestern doesn’t sell tickets anywhere, unless you’re an opposing fan and you want to see a game for cheap(er) in Chicago. The Wildcats’ non-conference road games are mostly against other non-descript Big Six/upper-tier mid-major universities, and if they play a marquee team somehow it’s going to be as part of a Thanksgiving tournament.

Still, it might be nice for Chris Collins and company to give their home base something exciting as an opponent prior to January. Northwestern’s last home game against a top-125 opponent where a full crowd could attend (AKA, not 2020-21) was November 13, 2019 against Providence. Mostly, they cycle through playing various Northern Illinois/IPFW/Chicago State types. Would it kill them to schedule Bradley or Indiana State at home once?

2. Washington State

• Total non-conference games: 55

• Top 100 opponents: 10 (18.2%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 32 (58.2%)

• Schedule Delta: -40%

Well, they play in the middle of nowhere and probably don’t have much interest in flying out to Kansas or wherever to get stomped. I didn’t say every team was doing this on purpose! Plus, last year, Kyle Smith finally put together a pretty competitive schedule. They went 5-6 against it, though, so your mileage may vary on whether it was a good idea.

1. St. John’s

• Total non-conference games: 55

• Top 100 opponents: 10 (18.2%)

• Quadrant 4 opponents: 34 (61.8%)

• Schedule Delta: -43.6%

Two of the five teams on this list have pretty obvious “no one wants to watch you play basketball” problems that reasonably prevent them from scheduling harder. Two more of the five teams play in locales that are fairly far from the nearest big city, which could make transportation tougher than it needs to be.

St. John’s has not had that excuse in a long time. The Johnnies play more and more games every year in Madison Square Garden, the literal most famous basketball arena in America. They rank ninth (!) in all-time Division I wins. Under Mike Anderson, their now-previous head coach, they even played at the fastest pace of any Division I team in 2021-22 and 2022-23. They scored a ton of points. They played what I would loosely call entertaining basketball.

Instead of capitalizing on this to test their merits, draw more fans in, or do literally anything at all that would hint at being a Real, Serious Program, St. John’s has put together some of the worst non-conference schedules, year after year. Under Mike Anderson’s three full seasons (plus what I’d loosely call a fourth COVID year), St. John’s never ranked higher than 328th in non-conference schedule difficulty, per KenPom. They haven’t touched the top 300 in six years.

Excuse me, but why? What’s the purpose? Why are you attempting to tell everyone you’re Actually Serious This Time by scheduling this garbage?

I have no idea if Rick Pitino is going to work out. No one really does. I do know, and hope, for one thing: Rick Pitino is probably going to bother to schedule a non-conference slate with more than two Top 100 opponents on it. Be better.

BONUS: Who’s played the most road games against Top 100 teams?

Full credit and honors go to Seton Hall, who has played an impressive 10 true road games against Top 100 opponents from 2018-19 onward. Their tradition of scheduling up (they finished 6th in the Schedule Delta race among all the Big Six entrants) started under Kevin Willard and looks to continue under Shaheen Holloway. (Willard also seems to be working on making Maryland’s non-conference schedule much more interesting than it was under Mark Turgeon.)

Second-best in show: Iowa State and Alabama, who have both played nine true road affairs against Top 100 teams since 2018. They’re both 2-7, but it’s not for a lack of trying.

Ten teams have played eight true road games against Top 100 opponents: Florida, Marquette, Missouri, West Virginia, Kansas State, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova, and Vanderbilt.

There really aren’t many truly abominable dishonorables here; every Big Six team from 2018-19 onward has managed at least two true road games against Top 100 opponents. But a select five have only done it the two times: Texas A&M (only one of which is under current HC Buzz Williams), Northwestern, Duke, Washington State, and Maryland. Duke just plays teams at neutral sites, so whatever. NW/Washington State were already covered.

For the first time under Williams, A&M will be putting together a non-confernece schedule of serious interest. They’ve played the same number of Top 100 non-conference opponents in the Williams era (9) as Alabama played in the 2022-23 season alone. How will they react to this total switch in schedule strategy? We’re four months away from finding out, but now you’ve got another item to look forward to.