The curious case of Michigan State
How to cope with a bad W-L and a good KenPom ranking
A fun thing to do, in life as in internet, is to be a hater. I am a hater of very few things. Dynamic pricing sounds pretty stupid to me. The Eagles are a terrible band. Coffee is best enjoyed black without any of the horrendous additives that either taste too sweet or too gross. And, most importantly, Michigan State University.
Why? Can’t explain it. (Actually I can.) But, hey, you either love Tom Izzo or you don’t. I don’t, so I guess this makes me a ‘hater.’ More importantly, there are a lot of Michigan State haters not named Will Warren. Not of the university, but of this specific version of their basketball team. A fun thing you can do is Twitter searching “Michigan State NIT” by which you get a wide variety of fun tweets.
Or better yet, “Michigan State Tournament,” which includes my personal favorite.
Now, this is a remarkable amount of hate for a top-20 KenPom team with a top-40 offense and defense. They own zero Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 losses. In conference play, Malik Hall and Tyson Walker have been two of the ~12 best players in the Big Ten, which is a generally good conference. Is a 17-11 record really that extreme of a deal?
The problem is that it is extreme…because this is a relatively rare case of a team heavily outperforming its record, or alternately heavily underperforming their metrics. A standard 19th-place Michigan State would’ve been expected to go around 20-8 against their schedule, which roughly equates to an 11-6 Big Ten record. They’d only be a half-game out of second if that were real. Obviously, it’s not. The problem is less 2024 and more that they stand out mightily across history. Below is the full (since 2007) list of teams with a top-25 NET, top-25 metrics average, and a Wins Above Bubble ranking below 40th.
Two (2) teams, both of which were post-COVID, one of which was a COVID-era team. Really, you only have one true example to look back on: 2022-23 Arkansas, an 8 seed that made the Sweet Sixteen.
Luckily for us, I do have a big database of pre-tournament metrics around these parts. How did similar teams, from 2002 to present, deal with March? Given MSU’s projected record of 19-12 (a 61% win percentage), how many others have had quality metrics to go with a bad record?
The answer: quite a few, actually. From 2002 to present, we’ve had 17 teams enter the field with a win percentage of 63% or lower and a KenPom ranking inside the top 25. A clear thing is visible here: the trend of metrics becoming more and more influential, as 10 of these 17 have been within the last six tournaments.
A lot of these hold pretty well for 2023-24 Michigan State. The average seed of the above schools was 8.3; MSU’s average seed at Bracket Matrix is 8.7. The average team was 21st in KenPom; MSU is 19th. Unsurprisingly, every team was a member of a power conference, and all but two teams had losing road records. The common theme: they all made the field of 68.
In fact, every top 25 KenPom team ever has made the NCAA Tournament, at least since 2007 and at least if they were in a high-major conference. Three mid-majors (2011 Utah State, 2011 Belmont, 2012 Belmont) likely would’ve failed to make the field, but they played in weaker conferences. Like it or not, Michigan State will be in the NCAA Tournament field in 2.5 weeks. What’s going to happen once they’re in it?
The answer there is pretty complicated. The above list of 17 teams went 10-7 in their Round of 64 games. Until Arkansas in 2023, we went a full 16 Tournaments without any sub-63% team inside the KenPom Top 25 making the Sweet Sixteen or further. Even then, neither 2005 NC State nor 2003 Arkansas cracked the Elite Eight.
Expand your horizons a little further to a 65% or lower win percentage and things are slightly sunnier. Why? 2002 Indiana, though a 5 seed, lurks at the top of the chart.
Now, that unnecessarily large chart covers 27 teams across history. Of these, all of whom were in the KenPom Top 25 prior to the NCAA Tournament, five saw the Sweet Sixteen or further. Collectively, they went 18-9 in the first round. And most importantly, Michigan State can point to 2022-23 Creighton as their possible savior: a Big East team that fell as low as 6-6 at one point who rallied to be a 6 seed in the top 15 and took advantage of a great draw to come up a point shy of the Final Four.
Of course, all of this begs the question of what marks success for this season for Michigan State, who drops in as a unique case. MSU began this season as a top-four AP Poll team and top-15 on KenPom. Given the former, you would argue that only a Final Four would represent a true success story, especially given Izzo’s post-COVID struggles. Given the latter, you’d argue Sweet Sixteen. Average them out and you get a thing that two of 27 teams above have done.
The season is far from over for Michigan State, but the hopes of a deep run are perhaps limited. Anyone who has watched them play would probably feel the same. But, at the same time, pretty much no one wants these guys in their bracket…because of the fear that it could snap into place at any given time. Oh, and the part where their counterparts won their Round of 64 games at a 67% clip. That might be frightening, too.