The interesting, subtle way in which Utah defeated BYU

Sometimes, boards aren't everything

The Berlin Wall but with the University of Utah logo on it, impressionism

The number of single game reviews this blog typically does is very few. I generally prefer previews or a “here’s how things have gone for an entire season” pieces on teams. But! Given the importance that I myself placed on Saturday’s BYU/Utah game, and given the unique way in which BYU’s undefeated run ended, I figured this would be a good spot to stop and do some exploration.

If you haven’t heard, Utah defeated previously 8-0, #6 in KenPom BYU 73-69 on Saturday evening. You probably didn’t see it live, because it was on the Pac-12 Network. (I also did not, but Synergy exists.) Looking at the surface-level read of the game, it’s a pretty simple one: BYU, who entered shooting 39% from three, shot 23% on 30 attempts. They also shot 56% at the line. Both of those things are unlikely to repeat themselves, so if you want to say BYU just had a bad shooting day, you’re welcome to.

On the other hand, it’s deeper than that. Per Synergy, BYU spent their first eight games pouring it in in transition. Synergy and other sites define transition play a little differently, but regardless of how you look at it, they score a lot of points early in the clock. Synergy has them as getting over 23 PPG across their first eight in transition. Unsurprisingly, that’s one of the very best rates in the nation. Hoop-Math says they rank 14th nationally in percentage of shots in transition. They get off 39.2% of their initial attempts in 10 seconds or less.

More specifically, they rank 6th in percentage of overall shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock off of a missed shot by the opponent. That means that, in the average BYU game, you’re going to see a ton of quick looks after an opponent’s miss, such as this one.

They play fast and shoot fast, with a near-equal split of twos and threes on the fly. This figured to be an advantage of sorts against a Utah team that ranks 254th in percentage of shots allowed in transition and 233rd in transition eFG% given up to opponents. On paper, you could see a path to BYU running these guys out of the gym on a good shooting night.

Then the game happened, and…none of that happened. None of it. BYU scored four points in transition, per Synergy. Their previous low in any one game was 18. If you prefer a different measurement, Hoop-Math had them as getting off 17 field goal attempts in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, nearly 10 full attempts below their season average. Despite what the season would’ve told you to date, Utah came into this game with a pretty heavy focus on shutting down BYU’s initial wave and forcing them into a half-court oriented game. It’s hard to say it didn’t work.

BELOW THE LINE ($): an in-depth look at how one shuts down a transition attack

So, first things first: Craig Smith-era Utah has not traditionally been a fast-paced team. They generally rank below the national average in average pace and possession length, and while they’ve upped the pace offensively this year their defense still looks to slow a game down if possible. In terms of true transition attempts, per Synergy, they rank in the 4th-percentile in percentage of transition possessions allowed defensively. Opponents do get a lot of shots off once about 10-20 seconds have elapsed, but the initial fastbreak rush is not frequent.

At least this year, this is because Utah makes shots. The Utes sit 42nd in eFG%, a giant leap from the mid-200s where they’ve ranked in Smith’s first two years. But everyone misses shots, and everyone’s offensive rebounding strategy once they miss those shots is different. Utah’s is especially different, because they’re the rare 2023-era basketball team to be starting multiple 7-footers in Branden Carlson (their best player) and Lawson Lovering.

Early in the season, they played Eastern Washington, the only team they’ve really played with a similar split of average possession length and quality shooting like BYU. When Utah missed shots with this pair in, they largely relied on the two 7-footers to attack the boards and kept everyone else back.

Even with other, smaller-ish lineups in, they still limited the number of players below the free throw line on a missed shot. Utah still gets a healthy amount of offensive rebounds, but it’s nothing crazy. The bigs do a lot of the work, and for the most part, 1-3 get back on the other end as soon as the shot goes up. Even in the below example, I’d argue Utah’s only really sending two guys to rebound. #1 took the shot and #0 is gravitating back to the defensive end, mostly just waiting for a tip-out if it happens.

BYU’s strategy this year has centered around a tremendous rebounding unit on both ends. They sit at an insane +17.1 OREB margin per 100 possessions right now and rank #4 in DREB%; they’re terrific at protecting their own boards and exploiting yours.

One of the only things Arizona State does well in any form is not giving up easy baskets in transition, but below, you can see the BYU strategy at work. All five players end this possession below the free throw line. Of course, it helps when you play an awful offensive team like Arizona State, but nearly every possession I watch, BYU has at least three guys immediately attacking the boards and focused on that outcome first.

Once a rebound is secured, the intent is clear for BYU. There is no slowdown; there is no waiting period. There is only running. Look at this image later from the same game, which was from a missed shot in the paint. Notice anything pretty obvious here?

Three BYU players are sprinting to their spots in transition. The rebounder has secured the ball; the ball-handler is in the process of receiving it. Arizona State has already lost this possession. They’ve got three players below the free throw line to BYU’s two. At minimum, BYU is currently playing this possession 3-on-2. Really, given ASU #5’s waiting around here, it may be more like 2-on-1. Here’s how that possession ended.

These Cougars are crazy threatening when defenses aren’t set, because they’ve got a litany of shooters and can use that to get you out of balance. If you aren’t back in transition, they can strike at any time. It’s a scary thing to defend, at least as of now before future Big 12 opponents find ways to adjust to it.

Finally, the game itself. For all of the discussion one could have about the ShotQuality score (which BYU won) or Utah shooting very well from two (65% on 31 attempts), the Utes still missed shots. They still made mistakes, even! Utah missed 29 FGAs, including 18 threes, and had six live ball turnovers (13 overall). And yet: BYU only got 17 FGAs in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (10 below their average) and just 24% of all shots in that same time frame, while they average nearly 40%.

Utah set the tone for how this would go less than two minutes in. It wasn’t by anything obvious, really; not by a hard foul or by hitting a bunch of shots. It was the same thing they’ve done previously: get back in transition. Here’s the result of Utah’s first missed shot of the game, a 10-foot floater that didn’t go down.

BYU has secured the rebound, but the multiple 7-footers on the court have required extra protection and attention from the Cougars. Only the two bigs are below the free throw line for Utah; they have a 3-on-1 advantage in transition at the moment. You don’t even see the fifth Utah player because he’s at the halfcourt line when this possession ends.

Check this one out too, just a minute later.

The second that ball is released, three Utah players are nearly at the halfcourt line to prevent a transition breakout from BYU.

These are just two plays, but for the rest of the game, it was clips like this on repeat. Utah still managed eight OREBs and got away with giving up 17 to BYU, but the numbers themselves were somewhat beside the point. Utah willingly punted on additional resources for offensive rebounds to prevent BYU breaking out for easy buckets in transition, and given the results, it’s hard to say it didn’t work. Like, check this graphic out, from Synergy. The numbers here are points scored. Look how massively that transition number for the Utah game stands out.

We’ll have to see how the rest of the season goes, but Utah was the first and only team to really crack the BYU game thus far. Will anyone else be willing to punt on offensive rebounds to this extent going forward? Will teams be okay with accepting a low amount of second-chance points if it means heavily limiting BYU’s fastbreak points? We’ve got three months of hoops left to find out.