No mega-intro here. This is just a game-by-game preview of everything on the docket tomorrow. I’ll do one for every day of the Tournament, though I don’t know that all of them will have this much info. The goal is to do a Show Me My Opponent-style thing for all three games in the Final Four, but until then, more of a surface read than a deep dive. Onward!
(9) West Virginia (-2.5) vs. (8) Maryland, 12:15 PM ET, CBS
KenPom: WVU 52% to win
Torvik: WVU 57%
Weird game on paper and a purely thrilling bully-ball fest in action. West Virginia has 14 losses but is 17th in KenPom thanks to a 3-6 record in games decided by 6 points or less. Maryland has the same record, but thanks to an insane 5-11 record away from home (2-9 in true road games) they’re lower. Per Haslametrics Maryland’s the single most inconsistent team in the entire field, which tracks pretty well with my subjective brain.
Maryland’s going to have a pair of advantages when on offense. They’re a little taller in the frontcourt and will be able to take advantage of WVU’s super-hacktastic defensive philosophy. Then again, Maryland literally hasn’t played a team all year with the rim-attacking and foul-drawing that WVU does; Purdue comes closest but they obviously aren’t similar teams. A thing to watch for is how well Maryland can shoot over the top of WVU’s drop coverage; they’ve done well so far this year but are very prone to streaks, both good and bad.
Two things to watch for:
Fouls. Well, it’s extremely simple, but it’s true. West Virginia is 1-8 when they commit more fouls than their opponent, but 18-6 when they don’t. That’s noteworthy against a Maryland team that’s committed way more fouls away from home.
Turnovers. It’s not a classic Huggins team in this regard, but against the three toughest turnover-forcing opponents on their schedule, Maryland went 0-3. West Virginia ranks 51st in TO% on defense, but Maryland doesn’t turn it over often. Maryland’s 18-5 when they win the turnover battle.
Prediction: Total toss-up. West Virginia 71, Maryland 69.
I am rooting for: West Virginia. No shame in the game, Kevin Willard, but this feels like Bob Huggins’ last ride and I’m going down with the ship.
(4) Virginia (-5.5) vs. (13) Furman, 12:40 PM ET, TruTV
KenPom: UVA 68%
Torvik: UVA 70%
This is the favorite upset pick of many, and on the surface it’s at least very agreeable. Virginia is one of the lowest-ranked 4 seeds ever, and when paired with Furman - a team who essentially plays the polar-opposite style - you can see where the buzz is coming from.
The problem I’m foreseeing is that Furman - who prevents turnovers well but has largely been just okay on the boards - is going up against an elite shot-attempt prevention defense in Virginia. Adjusted for competition, Virginia’s Defensive Shot Volume sits at 104, as UVA cleans up the defensive boards extremely well and quietly forces a lot of turnovers. It’s the fifth-best DefSV ever from a 4 seed, but buyer beware; the four in front of them went 2-2 in the first round.
Two things to watch for:
Furman’s targets. Via EvanMiya, Furman is 24-3 when opponents either shoot <38% from three or Furman rebounds more than 28% of its missed shots. Otherwise 0-4.
Turnovers, period. When Virginia wins the turnover battle, they’re 24-4 (1-3 when they don’t). I’m fascinated because these are two elite turnover-prevention offenses.
Prediction: I’m more tempted to fade Furman here than I am to take them, but at the same time, 4-seeds ranked 30th or worse (like UVA) are 4-3 in the Round of 64, and the four wins came by a combined 17 points. I won’t be surprised by much of anything here. Virginia 59, Furman 55.
I am rooting for: Furman because I like upsets but Virginia because the interactions I’ve had with people there are uniformly very positive.
(10) Utah State (-1.5) vs. (7) Missouri, 1:40 PM ET, TNT
KenPom: USU 62% to win
Torvik: USU 64%
This could be the best value pick of the Round of 64 if it comes through. Utah State is a top-25 metrics consensus team who’s played well above their reputation all year long and draws an on-paper deeply overrated Missouri team who’s been absurdly lucky in close games. (To boot, per Hoop-Explorer: in games against top 100 teams within 10 points in the final 5 minutes, Missouri shoots 43% from three. Otherwise, they’re at 33%.)
The drill-down stats could share a different story. This is a Utah State defense that doesn't force turnovers facing a Missouri team that takes great care of the ball. Plus, it’s a Utah State team without an elite rim protector taking on a Missouri team that scores incredibly well down low. However, Missouri’s defense is horrendous, has zero rim or perimeter protection, and bleeds offensive rebounds, which more or less makes the shot volume aspect of this a wash. At that point it’s “which one of you is hitting more shots,” and Utah State’s showed less variance in this regard than Missouri.
Two things to watch for:
The boards. Well, overly simple, but when Utah State wins the OREB% battle they’re 17-2. That’s of note against a Missouri team that’s won the rebounding battle five times all season.
Shooting efficiency. Missouri’s an astounding 24-1 when either hitting >33% of their threes or >53% of their twos. They’re 0-8 otherwise. Utah State’s had just three opponents all season hit more than 52% of twos against them, and this includes holding five of the six top 50 teams they played below 50% from two.
Prediction: I don’t know, I just think Utah State is straight-up better, and a Missouri team that bleeds three-point attempts facing a Utah State team that ranks 5th in 3PT% seems suboptimal. Utah State 83, Missouri 76.
I am rooting for: Utah State. Mountain West power!
(1) Kansas (-21.5) vs. (16) Howard, 2:10 PM ET, TBS
KenPom: Kansas 95% to win
Torvik: Kansas 94%
This is the second-shortest spread on a 16/1 game this year and it features the weakest 1 seed, but even so the path for Howard is pretty tough to visualize. Kansas should hold a comfortable shot attempt advantage (particularly on the offensive boards), though Howard should be able to score inside against a middling Kansas interior. I have my problems with Kansas, but against Quadrant 4 opponents (which Howard would be), they won their three games by an average of 26.7 points.
Two things to watch for:
Deep balls. Howard does rank 31st in 3PT% nationally, but they attempt a below-average number of threes per game. If they up their attempt rate and hit at a 37% rate or so, they can stay in this one for a while. (#3 Elijah Hawkins and #0 Marcus Dockery are the key guys for Howard here.)
The halftime score. When a 16 seed’s within 8 points at the break, the 1 seed is 4-17 against the spread. That’s your target for an interesting game.
Prediction: Howard has a tendency to play their best basketball in second halves, which makes me wary that this one will ever feel all that interesting. Kansas 85, Howard 62.
I am rooting for: Howard. Well, why wouldn’t you?
BELOW THE LINE ($): EVERYTHING ELSE