LIVE from Terminal A of IAH, here is your preview. A warning that there won’t be any GIFs in this one because of airport WiFi, but it’s the thought that counts. Anyway, thanks for reading along all year; this one is free because of your support. Let’s get it.
If the seeds didn’t say 4 vs. 5 you could lie to yourself a little and call this a 2010 or 2011 redux, preferably 2010. UConn has arrived at its 19th title game of my lifetime (citation needed) by way of blowing out every team they’ve played that wasn’t a Big East opponent, more or less. They’ve been a legitimate top 6 team essentially the entire season, even with a minor January downturn that gave real cause for concern.
I think a fair number of people had fair reason to believe in a UConn title game run. I am not sure the same could’ve been said about San Diego State. The Mountain West champs got here with defense, defense, and more defense; FAU was the first team in a month to even touch 1+ point per possession against these guys. What it looks like on paper…
is not that dissimilar from what another title game run looked like when I was a high school junior.
If the script follows as such, we’ll be in for a classic. If it follows like a lot of people think it will follow, UConn is going to win a relative snoozer en route to the title game. We’ll simply have to see.
When San Diego State has the ball
For all the good these guys bring on the defensive end, a lot of San Diego State’s offense can look like trying to hammer a square peg through a round hole and just breaking the entire apparatus. Even against FAU they attempted an astounding 30 (!) midrange twos and were probably a bit lucky to manage a 43% hit rate. UConn’s offense is a thing of beauty; this offense is more like a horror movie that still works, more or less.
When San Diego State’s on offense, a lot of what they do, for better and for worse, runs through Matt Bradley (12.5 PPG). Bradley is objectively a good basketball player; he also possesses the most insane shot selection I have seen from a Final Four player in maybe my entire life. Bradley is a 6’4” combo guard with the physical gifts of a linebacker. He is a behemoth in the lane. And yet, eight times a game, Bradley will pull up for a shot that makes your brain hurt.
Bradley hits these at a decent clip and is a solid shooter, but every time I watch him I feel like shaking the TV and telling him to just drive the dadgum ball. You’re stronger than everyone in the lane, my man! Anyway, whether you want him to or not, San Diego State runs a lot of hand-offs and flex actions meant to free up Bradley and point guard Darrion Trammell (9.9 PPG).
Bradley was tremendous against FAU, so I feel fine with SDSU probably choosing to continue to run their offense through him. In this game in particular it’s likely necessary. Trammell will be at a giant height disadvantage against UConn’s 6’5”/6’6” backcourt, meaning that he may be unusually reliant on others to help create his shots, or at least good shots. Bradley can go and get his and is the only guy in the backcourt somewhat consistently capable of doing that. The other backcourt guy is Lamont Butler (8.7 PPG), whose name you know now but in the other 39:59 of a game is just okay on O.
That covers the backcourt; now comes a somewhat unusual frontcourt where it’s like a 2.5/2.5 split. San Diego State runs a lot of functional stuff out of the post, with a lot of it going Jaedon LeDee (7.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG)’s way. LeDee has saved SDSU’s bacon on more than a few bad possessions this March, and of the main post options he’s pretty easily the most efficient. LeDee isn’t a serious shooting threat, but given space down low he’s proven really difficult to take down.
LeDee had a tremendous second half, and Nathan Mensah (the nominal starter at the 5) came up with several huge stops on the other end. The problem, as ever, is that both can disappear offensively for significant stretches of the game.
I haven’t gotten to UConn yet here because, well, it just feels like they’ve a giant structural advantage here. San Diego State is reliant on creating 1-on-1 situations against lesser defenders, as well as using their physicality advantage to gain shots and free throws when the first shot doesn’t go down. That’s been great against a lot of teams, but this feels a little like when a 12 seed plays a 5 with the same system. UConn does SDSU’s board battles and ISO defense, but UConn is larger and more talented.
This is a matchup where, if SDSU manages 65 points, it’s a success.
CHART! for the San Diego State Aztecs:
When UConn has the ball
Titan vs. titan right here. This is the first title game with a top-5 offense facing a top-5 defense since 2019 UVA/Texas Tech, but this is stylistically different and possesses much different vibes. San Diego State has survived over and over this tournament on the back of a defense that’s been both elite and a bit lucky, but the super-low shot volume they allow is not a fluke. UConn’s simply shot well and demolished everyone they’ve taken on in the paint.
When UConn played Miami I was unsure of how Miami would hold up, both on the boards and how they’d handle UConn’s shooting prowess. UConn got pretty much whatever shot they wanted and rebounded 42% of their missed shots, so a demolition is a demolition. San Diego State could hold up better in this regard given their general defensive blueprint, but it will still be the tallest task they’ve faced as a team this season.
The frontcourt battle starts with Adama Sanogo (17.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG), the best player among the teams still standing, versus Nathan Mensah and LeDee. Mensah has the most blocks of anyone this Tournament, while LeDee is a bear to deal with in his own right. Then again, I thought Norchad Omier of Miami might at least hold up a little bit against Sanogo. He very much did not.
Single-coverage defense against Sanogo down low has gone poorly, with Sanogo either making a shot or getting fouled on 68.5% of said possessions. Mensah is much better than LeDee in single coverage, so he figures to draw that defensive assignment for the most part. As we saw against Miami, though, you cannot let Sanogo hang around on the perimeter, because he’s a decent shooter now. I mean jeez what do you even do.
The other aspect of UConn’s offense, aside from the interior dominance, is what they’re able to create out on the perimeter. The UConn guards have been good at pushing the pace off of missed shots or turnovers, but in half-court settings there’s a lot of off-ball screens or dribble handoffs to free up their laundry list of shooter-ish options. The best of these inside and out is Jordan Hawkins (16.3 PPG), a three-level scorer (of sorts) that has been utterly lethal off the ball.
Hawkins has 151 points (!) off of off-ball screens this year, per Synergy, which is merely the second-best figure in all of college basketball. (For context, he’s a spot ahead of Santiago Vescovi, whose entire thing is running off of screens.) Hawkins shoots 41% from deep off of these sets UConn runs. That’s potentially very dangerous against an SDSU defense that Synergy rates out in the 31st-percentile in defending off-ball screens. It’s also an area where UConn could flew their height and weight advantages.
Along with that, UConn will be force-feeding guys like Tristen Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, main point guard), Alex Karaban (9.5 PPG), and Joey Calcaterra (5.8 PPG, 44% 3PT%) with both drive-and-kick actions and a guy like Newton simply pulling up off the dribble. All of this comes against an SDSU side that’s been both tremendous and a bit lucky in defending the perimeter this March. Can it hold up for a sixth game?
The differentiator here, if it ends up existing, is how well SDSU can switch. Against FAU they got into some negative 1-on-1 situations with poorly-timed switches, but Brian Dutcher claims they were a little struck by the limelight. To his point, they adjusted brilliantly at halftime. Having Aguek Arop, the best individual defender left in this Tournament, around really helps in this regard. If you notice UConn consistently getting into the last 10 seconds of the shot clock SDSU’s winning the psychological battle.
San Diego State’s ball pressure could be a factor here, too. UConn’s guards have grown up a lot this year but they still struggle with turnovers from time to time, and it’s not like SDSU’s motor ever stalls out on defense. Only on offense.
Quoting my man Jordan Majewski: “SDSU’s pressure and physicality have changed the game in the 2H repeatedly this tournament (and they’ve eaten up and spit out 3PT reliant offenses all year, as Eli Hershkovich noted they’re now 8-0 against offenses with a 44% 3PTA rate or higher, UConn is at 42% fwiw), but UConn’s offensive structure is mostly unlike anything they’ve seen, and on short prep (fwiw, UConn is 6-2 ATS on one day rest since 2020, while SDSU is 9-8 during the same time frame).” Titan vs. titan. Buckle up.
CHART! for the Connecticut Huskies:
Expected starters + rotations
Key matchups
Matt Bradley (SDSU) vs. Andre Jackson Jr. (UConn). I mean, it feels like if SDSU has any shot offensively here it’s because Bradley is able to create all his weird and weirdly successful shots. Jackson can be held down on the offensive end, but he’s a versatile defender who can cover a lot of guys.
Adama Sanogo (UConn) vs. Nathan Mensah/Jaedon LeDee (SDSU). Can SDSU’s center combo keep Sanogo from running buckwild the way he has throughout the Tournament? Additionally, if they can force both of Sanogo/Donovan Clingan into foul trouble somehow they really might be in business.
Jordan Hawkins (UConn) vs. Lamont Butler (SDSU). Saturday’s hero takes on a guy who didn’t have that much of an impact Saturday but can pop off from deep at any time. Butler is super disciplined and a tremendous defender but can be overly aggressive sometimes.
Three things to watch for
The boards. UConn hasn’t lost the OREB% battle since early January, while SDSU very rarely gets outrebounded. Considering SDSU is more likely to miss shots than UConn on paper, if they’re able to generate second chances consistently at all this will be a real game. If not it’s a UConn blowout.
Second half teams. San Diego State’s defense has gone ballistic in second halves of this tournament; UConn as a whole has done the same. I’m rooting for this to be within 5 either way at the break because if so, you’re likely gonna get a banger of a second half.
Make shots. I mean, if SDSU doesn’t shoot 35% or better from three they’re not winning barring something unexpected. The Aztecs are 18-1 when shooting 35% or above from deep; UConn is 6-4 when opponents shoot that or better.
Three predictions
This is a foul-happy game and I’m setting the O/U at 39.5 total free throw attempts;
San Diego State wins the turnover battle, but loses the battle of the boards;
Connecticut 62, San Diego State 57.