Week 1 Watchlist: I Will Provide
No more TV dinners, just TV buffets
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
Hello! Welcome to the 2024-25 college basketball season. If you’d like to read conference previews, the preseason essay, a bunch of predictions, or various superlatives, I have you covered. If you’d just like to read about the actual games being actually played this week: I got you covered there, too. If you would like to read a post later this week on the importance of ball reversals in 2024, I would subscribe here:
Here is the WATCHLIST. We have a new scoring system this year to simplify things a bit, because I realized that a 1-5 star scale where you never touch stars 1 or 2 is pretty dumb. So: we’re going corporate, baby. The A/B/C scale is here.
A GAMES are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ GAME every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
B GAMES are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
C GAMES are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
We hope to never get to D or F GAMES this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. NEW! All lines for women’s games are via Bart Torvik! What a king. Thanks, bud.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4
A GAME
#11 Baylor at #9 Gonzaga (-3), 11:30 PM ET, ESPN2. My imagination is that if you’ve read this far you’re aware of this game, so it needs no further sell. Me personally, 11:30 is a heck of an ask, but a condensed watch the next morning will work just fine.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #20 Ole Miss vs. #7 USC (-5), 12 PM ET, ESPN. WBB teams are heading to Paris again this year for some headline openers. Big moment for JuJu Watkins and crew to cement the hype.
NCAAW: #39 Louisville vs. #5 UCLA (-12.5), 2:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Same for UCLA. Feels like a big year for Louisville’s Jeff Walz to rediscover form after a down 2023-24.
#94 Santa Clara (-2) vs. #105 Saint Louis, 3 PM ET, YouTube. Fun midday affair thanks to the guys at Field of 68. Nice glow-up to go from Zoom calls to hosting a tournament (of sorts) in the Pentagon (of South Dakota).
#16 Texas A&M (-3) at #66 UCF, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. By rule I don’t care about anything Texas A&M does before January but I’m interested in UCF going from all-defense to all-offense. Worth noting that A&M is 9-4 ATS as a road fave the last three years.
#30 Ohio State vs. #18 Texas (-1), 10 PM ET, TNT. Really intriguing for many reasons. Most similarly-minded people are down on Texas…but I’m also really down on Ohio State’s entire hiring process and am unconvinced of Diebler as head man. We’ll see.
C GAMES
#138 Charleston (-1) vs. #145 Southern Illinois, 12 PM ET, YouTube.
#103 McNeese (-3) vs. #181 South Dakota State, 6 PM ET, YouTube. Good battle here: my personal feel that McNeese is a borderline top-50 team with the analytical feel that they aren’t.
#118 Ohio (-1) at #168 James Madison, 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
NCAAW: #38 Michigan vs. #1 South Carolina (-18.5), 7:30 PM ET, TNT. In a similar spot last year LSU got rocked by a deceptively great Colorado team, but I don’t expect it here.
#96 Vermont at #81 UAB (-5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Just a very good mid-major game, not much more to note.
#26 Florida (-8) vs. #102 South Florida, 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. RIP AAR.
#134 Chattanooga at #56 USC (-12), 10 PM ET, Big Ten Network. Of all these C games this is the one I could see going haywire; Chatt can score in bunches and USC is entirely new.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5
I heard you need Election Day counter-programming. This is what I got.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #74 Cleveland State at #15 Ohio State (-14), 6 PM ET, BTN+. CSU has four (!) starters back from a 29-win team, which makes this of serious intrigue, but Ohio State is also highly experienced.
NCAAW: #284 Samford at #19 Tennessee (-28), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I will be in attendance for this, the first real game of Kim Caldwell’s Tennessee career.
NCAAW: #60 FGCU (-1) at #95 Davidson, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Fun mid-major battle. If FGCU wins this, they have a legitimate shot at going undefeated in regular season play. Seriously!
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 6
C GAMES
#96 Vermont at #3 Auburn (-16), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Auburn home games are pretty easy to figure out: any opponent that’s not Kentucky or sometimes Alabama will get the snot beaten out of them. Vermont is also routinely not interested in non-conference play, so I have my doubts.
#137 Lipscomb at #25 Arkansas (-16), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Similar thing going on here, but Calipari is quietly 26-28 ATS as a home favorite the last three years while Lipscomb is 16-14 ATS as a road dog. Not much, but of the two SEC 16-point faves I’d be much less surprised if this is the close one.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 7
B GAMES
NCAAW: #11 Florida State (-3.5) at #32 Illinois, 7 PM ET, BTN+. Back in early August I saw a tweet from someone sharing a BTN+ code that got you in free for a year. I didn’t take them up on it, which was pretty stupid! So now I’m here, wondering if it’s worth doing a very roundabout setup to watch this game. If not, it’s a bummer, because FSU should have a top-10 offense behind the trio of Ta’Niya Latson, Makayla Timpson, and O’Mariah Gordon. With a win, though, Illinois could start 8-0.
C GAMES
#134 Chattanooga at #34 Saint Mary’s (-12), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. I’m a sucker for games like this where one team has fantastic guards and the other has a defense that chokes the life out of you. SMC has been utterly dominant in these types of home games post-COVID, though.
NCAAW: #63 Washington State at #18 Stanford (-10.5), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. The only positive thing you can say about the Pac-12 breakup is that this game is far easier to watch than it would’ve been last November.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 8
This is the second of three marquee days of the week. I’d go Monday > Friday > Saturday > Sunday? Mostly, this is the rare Friday I recommend staying in for hoop.
A GAME
#15 North Carolina at #7 Kansas (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Obviously. This is a strength vs. strength game for me. I don’t really think North Carolina can do much to slow Hunter Dickinson down in the post if they play him straight-up, but Dickinson is quite good at passing out of doubles anyway. On the other hand, though, North Carolina’s backcourt could heavily overpower a deceptively just-fine Kansas defensive group on the perimeter. This Kansas team couldn’t defend jump shooters for long stretches last year. Is that somehow fixed without McCullar? Play this ten times and I’d guess Kansas wins seven, but in UNC’s favor is the part where you only have to play it once.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #31 Creighton (-1.5) at #58 South Dakota State, 7 PM ET, “Summit League Network”. I looked into this to save the 99.3% of you who don’t know what it is some time: for $9.99 a month or $80 a year, you can watch every Summit League basketball game at both the men’s and women’s level. Considering the response from Summit League fans, I think I should pass, which is a shame. Whenever this game is made available to the larger public, you should watch it; SDSU is always very good on both ends and Creighton generates a ton of good jumpers every game.
#62 New Mexico vs. #28 UCLA (-4), 11 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Fantastic way to stay up late on a Friday. It’s all about the backcourts for me: can New Mexico’s frenetic-if-alarming backcourt of Donovan Dent and Tru Washington outclass a young, but talented backcourt for UCLA? Might be a very defensive battle.
#92 Bradley at #111 Washington State (-1), 11 PM ET, ESPN+. Nothing crazy here: just two exceptional coaches with good basketball teams that play the sport in a pleasing way.
C GAMES
D2: #19 Augustana (SD) at #4 Northwest Missouri, 1 PM ET, streaming. This is the first NWMO game post-Ben McCollum and it’s midday on a Friday, so I’m interested.
#123 Arkansas State at #4 Alabama (-21), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Mentor takes on protege, as Nate Oats and a title contender hosts Bryan Hodgson and a Sun Belt title contender. Points points points.
#70 Arizona State vs. #94 Santa Clara, 8 PM ET, FloSports. Agenda-pushing game for me.
D3: #9 Calvin vs. #2 Wisconsin Platteville, 8 PM ET, streaming. Two serious D3 title hopefuls tangle in Bloomington(, Illinois) for the right to…uh, play either Illinois Wesleyan (#16) or Cal Lutheran (#24). Basically, for the uninitiated, think of a nice four-team tournament involving Alabama, North Carolina, Creighton, and UCLA. Would be pretty good!
NCAAW: #37 Virginia at #12 Oklahoma (-10.5), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Good early test for an Oklahoma team I think of as a serious Final Four contender. AND to get your first real look at the wild visual of former Oregon State star Raegan Beers in an OU uniform.
#97 George Mason at #22 Marquette (-12), 9 PM ET, Peacock. An option. Home Marquette is a pretty tough draw but George Mason is a frisky team to figure out on the fly.
#100 UC Irvine (-1) at #131 Loyola Marymount, 10 PM ET, ESPN+.
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 9
A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
#3 Auburn at #1 Houston (-4), 9:30 PM ET, ESPNU. A quick scan of this Saturday’s college football schedule reveals a Dollar General version of Alabama/LSU and…uh…other games. I guess. I don’t know, nothing I see comes even close to the appeal of this for me.
This is a pretty huge test for an Auburn team implementing a new point guard (Furman transfer JP Pegues) against a style of defense that no one else in the SEC comes close to running. Most SEC teams either run a full drop coverage or will switch; Houston’s just going to blitz and blitz and blitz, particularly against a PG in Pegues who I guess would have played an extreme diet version of this against…I don’t know, Tulane? Kinda? That resulted in five turnovers (albeit with 7-15 from 3) against a team with far lesser athletes than Houston.
On the other hand, I don’t know that Houston can get a ton going at the rim against an Auburn defense that is fantastic at rim denial. Most Pearl teams try to funnel things to the paint, which Houston is more than happy to do, but anyone who’s watched Houston long enough knows their tendency to settle for a lot in the 5-10 foot range instead of getting within five feet. That, along with if they can simply hit their threes, will go a long way in determining your winner.
A GAME
#13 Tennessee (-4) at #64 Louisville, 12 PM ET, ACC Network. Really happy this exists. Why did we stop scheduling true home-and-homes, exactly? Fascinating game for obvious reasons, but potentially in Louisville’s favor here is that Chucky Hepburn (and actually J’Vonne Hadley, though as a role player) tangled with this Tennessee defense just last year. Hepburn actually held up alright - 13 points on 9 shots, just two turnovers - but no one else with the ball in their hands has really faced a defense of this presumed caliber.
We’ll learn a lot pretty quickly about both teams. Tennessee has opportunities here particularly in transition, where Kelsey’s Charleston Cougars ranked in the 2nd (!) percentile defensively last year. I also don’t buy Louisville’s rim protection options; could this be a big Felix Okpara game? On the other end, Tennessee will get tested in defensive transition, as Pat Kelsey’s goal is to lead the nation in tempo every year. Should be a lot of fun.
B GAMES
#25 Arkansas vs. #11 Baylor (-3), 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU. This is a ‘neutral’ site game an hour from Baylor’s campus, so yeah. I think this could be an offensive explosion both ways. Baylor has a very, very obvious advantage offensively on the perimeter, where I don’t think Arkansas can find a solution at the 5 that will work for more than a few minutes at a time. Arkansas has an advantage inside, as I don’t know that Norchad Omier can stay out of foul trouble against Jonas Aidoo. Very fun game.
#45 Boise State (-1) at #84 San Francisco, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Nice early Q2ish opportunity for Boise State, same for San Francisco. More of these games, please!
C GAMES
#107 Louisiana Tech (-2) at #159 UT Arlington, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Entertaining tangle between two good mid-majors.
#42 Memphis (-2) at #93 UNLV, 6 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Entertaining tangle between two questionably good mid-majors.
#51 Northwestern at #27 Dayton (-6), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I don’t need to watch these two offenses play basketball, frankly, but maybe you do.
#132 Western Kentucky at #55 Grand Canyon (-11), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. First decent test for a Grand Canyon team with eyes set on a 30+ win regular season.
#76 Washington at #73 Nevada (-4), 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Former MWC star Great Osobor makes his first-ever trip to Reno.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 10
A GAME
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-9.5) vs. #8 NC State, 3 PM ET, ESPN. What a great game this is, huh? I thought last year South Carolina could be vulnerable going into their opening week, then they were better than they were the season before for significant stretches. This is a great Final Four rematch, though, and it is huge for NCSU to bring back three starters, including the fabulous Aziaha James, for one more run all together.
Still, while that line implies only an 80-85% shot for Carolina it subjectively feels like 90%+. Until further notice it feels like South Carolina’s going to have the two or three most impactful players on the court in nearly every game, and while Dawn Staley has to find a new dominant center, her current group of guards is possibly the best of her career. (Also, Ashlyn Watkins should be the next dominant forward anyway.)
B GAMES
NCAAW: #10 Duke at #14 Maryland (-1), 1 PM ET, FS1. Very good old-school ACC battle here, mostly robbed from A Game territory because it figures to be defense-first and therefore not as palatable to the eye. Kara Lawson’s Duke defense last year was nasty, and Brenda Frese’s Terrapins were playing like a top-25 defense over the final 10 games of last season, per Torvik. Tone-setting basketball.
#36 Michigan at #44 Wake Forest (-1), 1 PM ET, ESPN2. Okay, ‘neutral’, but it’s in Greensboro so basically a road game. This is a perfect early-season game for me: two teams that are probably NCAA Tournament teams but aren’t locks, two really good offensive coaches, and two teams with identifiable stars (Hunter Sallis for Wake, Vlad Goldin for Michigan) that do completely opposite good things.
#100 UC Irvine at #115 Northern Iowa (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Almost as dead-even a game as you can find. A lot of Northern Iowa’s best offense oddly comes more from the midrange, while UCI is heavily dependent on pounding the paint while forcing tons of tough shots on the other end. Really can’t tell you how this one’s gonna go, though I like it.
C GAMES
#153 Stephen F. Austin at #133 Drake (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Early opportunity to see the Ben McCollum offense against a live opponent.
NCAAW: #52 Gonzaga at #18 Stanford (-9), 3 PM ET, ESPN2. This is the first Big Game (of sorts) of the post-Vanderveer era for Stanford, which is inherently interesting. Gonzaga should be quite good again this year.
#202 St. Thomas at #89 Oklahoma State (-12), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Interesting in that it gives you a glimpse into Oklahoma State’s competence this year: a 15+ point win is a good enough sign, while a close game reinforces the fears this Year Zero roster induces.
#70 Arizona State at #9 Gonzaga (-11), 5 PM ET, ESPN. After Arizona State’s 103-47 loss to a Duke team with an offense that might not be as good as Gonzaga’s, you bet I’m curious.
NCAAW: #57 Virginia Tech vs. #24 Iowa (-6.5), 5:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Post-Caitlin, post-Bluder, post-Brooks. Lot of new things happening in this one.
NCAAW: #9 Baylor (-4) at #33 Oregon, 10 PM ET, Big Ten Network. Extremely stupid that this is at 10 PM, but what else is new. Again, this would be on Gas Station TV at 3 AM if they were still a Pac-12 team, so I guess we can thank realignment for this one thing.