Week 1 Watchlist: With All My Calculations, Everything Looks So Clear
One final time before the end of history
Welcome to the weekly Watchlist guide, which tells you which games in a given week are worth watching. First, a short column.
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
Twice already this offseason, I wrote about the poisonous ruins of what realignment buoyed by college football is going to do to all the college sports not named football. I do not feel like writing a third one but I’ve been pondering this specific part I brought up in the season essay titled Parallax:
At the same time, there is this view: the last great college athletics season is staring us down. This college football season has operated as a terrific sendoff thus far, peaking with a beautiful Oregon/Washington game that ended in a field storming and a sixth-year quarterback in happy tears with his family. The college basketball season - notably far more diverse in outcomes year-over-year - could feel like a mega-delivery of that exact thing.
Maybe I’m feeling a little too romantic and/or charitable but I believe it’s gonna deliver big time.
Well, we’re here, and I feel the exact same way I felt a month ago. The college football season has mostly stopped delivering unless you are a fan of a Big Ten East power or Georgia, but Washington is still undefeated. Tulane can still make their second New Year’s Six bowl in as many years. Louisville is 8-1. New Mexico State is going bowling. There’s fun stories wherever you look, but you do have to look because ESPN prefers to promote the College Football Playoff, which ESPN owns.
But! You are you, and you get to make your own choices. I have derived more enjoyment from the stories of the NMSUs and Tulanes of the world than I have in years. I’ve loved seeing Washington State and Oregon State getting respective moments in the sun. We’ve been able to use this year to mourn lost rivalries while still cherishing the last meetings we may see for a long time.
My compadre Cameron (@morrisoncrying on Twitter) summed it up quite well the other day.
What’s coming down the pipe is one huge, overwhelming bummer. College athletics are going to change forever for the worse. The latest news was a horrific change to the NIT that looks to shove one-bid conference regular season winners out so 15-16 Penn State can get their spot instead. Every few weeks a conference commissioner (generally the SEC’s) or a coach comes out in favor of a 96-team tournament, a thought so vile that I’d like to give it no air here.
That’s why I’ve elected to bury my head in the sand a bit. This blog is not one to cover changes in college athletics at large; you have Matt Brown’s excellent Extra Points for that. I am here to talk about the games and, yes, the statistics within them. The games start today.
It is Week One, under 24 hours before the first game of the D-1 basketball season. Today, every team can dream. There is no worrying about what tomorrow may bring. It’s all on the table. For one day, this day, everyone can say this is gonna be their year. No matter what next year has in store, I’m choosing to enjoy what this year, this week, this day has in store for us viewers. Don’t take this, any of this, for granted.
You can finally say it: game’s on, dude. Let’s have some fun.
Here’s Week One’s Watchlist. Games are rated on a 1-5 star scale, with a special sixth star saved for what I’ve got as the Game of the Week. Unless the schedule is utterly barren the goal is to never cover 1 or 2-star games, but you can basically line it up as such:
FIVE STARS means you need to clear out your schedule to watch that game, barring some sort of deal where your personal team is playing at that time.
FOUR STARS means I recommend at least catching most of the game if you can.
THREE STARS means these are good or fine games, but not top-flight ones that you absolutely need to watch. If required, you can watch the Matthew Loves Ball highlights the next day.
ONE and TWO STARS are not recommended for anybody.
All rankings and spread-type things are via KenPom. Also, these are going to be free every week. I don’t do betting advice and these rarely if ever have unique/fresh research, plus I like to do one free post every week anyway. If you’re a first-time reader, I think you should subscribe because I think everyone should subscribe.
Onward.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6
FIVE STARS
#21 USC (-1) vs. #25 Kansas State, 10 PM ET, TNT. This is very obviously the best game of the day. Kansas State attempts to run back their Elite Eight ride from last year, while USC has no worse than one of the 20 most talented rosters in the nation. Questions abound about both teams’ depth, and KSU in particular must replace their two biggest contributors from last season. Strongly suggest staying up for this one.
NCAAW: #10 Notre Dame vs. #6 South Carolina, 1 PM ET, ESPN. I mean, these are two elite programs playing a midday game on national TV. South Carolina has to figure out how to recover post-Aliyah Boston/Brea Beal/Zia Cooke, while Notre Dame returns a lot of talent from a Sweet Sixteen team. Upset watch!
THREE STARS
#57 Georgia vs. #41 Oregon (-2.5), 4:30 PM ET, TruTV. I don’t understand why Georgia is top 60 in KenPom; I would have them closer to #100 myself. Either way, this is kind of a must-win game for both teams. I think Mike White really needs a statement victory at UGA as a proof-of-concept thing, given that UGA went 2-8 against top-50 teams last year and 0-8 against top-100 teams away from home. Oregon really, really needs a good November after farting away the last two.
#123 Princeton vs. #59 Rutgers (-6.5), 7:00 PM ET, Peacock. True neutral between a pair of Jersey schools that both love to drain the clock, but Princeton’s offense is just way more palatable to watch. Both lost about the same level of production from last year’s teams, but I think Rutgers really needs this one after blowing up down the stretch last year.
#99 Bradley at #90 UAB (-4), 8:00 PM ET, ESPN+. Just a fun basketball game! No notes here.
#136 James Madison at #13 Michigan State (-17), 8:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network. This probably ends up being a standard MSU 15-20 point opening night victory, but James Madison is frisky enough to deliver some body blows. They have the best player in their conference (Terrence Edwards) and honestly might have more proven scoring options in terms of depth than MSU, and their transition attack can be deadly. That being said it’s pretty obvious that JMU will likely be at a significant athletic disadvantage, and it seems like a game where MSU can eventually power away via pounding the paint.
#102 Akron at #117 South Dakota State (-2), 9:15 PM ET, “Midco Sports Plus”. Whatever this channel is, I’m unaware, but it does play a lot of Summit League games. That makes it a net positive in this world. Anyway, what a blast this should be. Both teams are tremendous at spacing the floor and making the quality shots they generate. This is a great game to learn the names Enrique Freeman (Akron) and Zeke Mayo (SDSU) if you don’t know them already, two serious mid-major stars.
THE ROULETTE WHEEL GAME OF THE WEEK #1
#172 Arkansas State at #20 Wisconsin (-17), 8:00 PM ET, BTN+. I’m sorry, I just don’t trust these guys to score enough points to motor away. Wisconsin is sort of quietly 11-16-2 ATS as a home favorite the last two years, and Arkansas State restocked their roster with a new coach (Bryan Hodgson) this offseason with several seriously talented pieces. Hodgson will run Nate Oats’ rim-and-three system to death, which really is not something Wisconsin sees much. I also simply despise the Wisconsin offense, a unit that generates few good shots, doesn’t make their bad ones, and doesn’t get to the line. I’m not saying Arkansas State wins! I just feel like this is one Wisconsin has to sweat out until the final minute.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7
FOUR STARS
#15 Auburn vs. #7 Baylor (-1.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Banger! If you are aware of either team, you presumably don’t need much of a sell here. A great early test to see how interested Baylor is in playing defense this year, along with a test of seeing how much Auburn’s backcourt has improved.
THREE STARS
#147 FGCU at #49 Indiana (-11), 6:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network. This is in the exact same boat as UNCA/Michigan below: just keep this on your radar. I don’t think anything is going to happen, but this is an Indiana team who lost the second-best player in the entire sport last year to the NBA and an FGCU side that returns 78% of scoring from a decent-enough team.
#98 Northern Iowa at #87 North Texas (-4), 8:00 PM ET, ESPN+. If you need an undercard game to gravitate towards, I do like this one. North Texas is in a transition year with new HC Ross Hodge, who’s likely going to run the same system previous HC Grant McCasland ran. Northern Iowa meanwhile is in year one billion of Ben Jacobsen, who rarely does much offensively that excites me but does have a defense that slows the game to a crawl and forces a ton of jumpers, both threes and twos. That’s a great test for a UNT roster that no longer has Tylor Perry on it.
#156 UNC Asheville at #44 Michigan (-12), 8:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network. UNCA has received a metric ton of hype this offseason, which is fine when you’re a 15 seed that returns almost everyone of importance, but overshadows the fact that ShotQuality had them as the single luckiest team in college basketball last year. Michigan could desperately use some of that luck, given that HC Juwan Howard is sidelined post-surgery and the program badly needs a good year. UNCA’s space-heavy motion offense generates a lot of rim-and-three looks, which Michigan does a solid job of taking away. I don’t think the talent advantage here is as pronounced as it looks on paper, but this is a UNCA roster that played four Top 100 teams last year and got absolutely smoked against three of them. Still, worth keeping an eye on.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8
FOUR STARS
#37 Florida Atlantic (-5) vs. #75 Loyola Chicago, 7:00 PM ET, Barstool. Yuck! But it’s a good game, so you gotta do what you gotta do. These are two total opposites in the Rubber Band Effect war: FAU having a wildly successful 2022-23, Loyola dramatically underachieving even the most pessimistic projections. I think Loyola’s a serious A-10 contender, which makes this a toughie for an FAU team returning most everybody.
THREE STARS
#81 Arizona State vs. #27 Mississippi State (-6), 9:30 PM ET, Barstool. Don’t watch this game. If anyone asks, you saw the highlights on YouTube.
#196 Lipscomb at #80 Drake (-10), 8:00 PM ET, ESPN+. I think Lipscomb might be a bit underrated by Ken’s numbers, given that they’ll have a tremendous piece in Jacob Ognacevic and a starting lineup with four plus scorers in it. But: this is part of a nasty back-to-back where they play Wichita on Monday, then Drake 48 hours later. The Bulldogs have serious upside and strike a serious resemblance to 12/13 seeds of years past, including the 2022-23 Drake team that took Miami to the wire.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #3 Iowa vs. #8 Virginia Tech, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2. This is one of those annoying neutral-site games that really should be a true home-and-home, but alas. This is Caitlin Clark - CAITLIN CLARK - taking on one of last year’s Final Four teams. Do you need more, really?
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #11 Tennessee at #18 Florida State, 6:00 PM ET, ESPN2. The Lady Vols have a decent amount of expectations this year, and it does feel like pressure is building on Kellie Harper to crack the Elite Eight after going R32 > S16 > S16 the last three seasons.
#46 New Mexico at #38 Saint Mary’s (-5), 10:00 PM ET, ESPN+. This is so good, and as an Eastern Time guy I really wish it wasn’t at 10, but you can’t always get what you want. This is a New Mexico team with serious NCAA Tournament desires going up against an SMC team that feels really underrated by Ken’s model. SMC was borderline unstoppable at home last season, going 15-2 and playing like the fourth-best team in America, per Torvik. New Mexico went 5-6 on the road, but generally performed at the level of a top-40 group. I am very, very excited for this.
THREE STARS
#136 James Madison at #119 Kent State (-4), 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+. These are two co-favorites of their respective leagues (Sun Belt and MAC), both of whom have pretty salty defenses. One thing of note here is JMU’s press defense, which they run 10-15 possessions a game. Kent was pretty awful against the press last year, turning it over on 20% of possessions (13.3% in half-court, per Synergy). If JMU turns up the pressure this could be interesting.
#103 Stephen F. Austin at #151 Middle Tennessee (-2), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. SFA is the consensus #2 in the WAC. MTSU could potentially be in play in the CUSA now that most of the best pieces have departed for brighter pastures. I’m mostly curious here because MTSU could really use this one, but MTSU was awful against press defenses last year.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#6 Arizona at #9 Duke (-3), 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2. This is a true royal battle, one we don’t get too often in the era of neutral site faceoffs and plastic arenas. This is a legitimate top-10 at top-10 true home environment in the first week of the season. It’s like if Tennessee/Michigan State had been a real game! I don’t think you need much of a sales pitch here, but I suppose I can try.
I think this game’s deeply interesting for a lot of reasons, one of which is that Arizona appears to be more guard-reliant than ever in the post-Azuolas Tubelis era. Jon Fendler noted that Arizona took 37 (!) threes in their exhibition, which may or may not hold in a real game but could be something to watch here. Duke did a lot of things well last year, but they struggled at times with giving up open catch-and-shoot threes, which is what Tommy Lloyd probably wants a lot of. On the flipside, Arizona’s probably going to run exclusively drop coverage with Oumar Ballo at center…which is a huge mismatch in Duke’s favor. I guess what I’m saying is that this has potential to be a VERY high-scoring game.
FIVE STARS
#32 Memphis at #55 Missouri (-0.5), 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Banger. I like that this game exists in general, as it’s two teams who will want to play fast and fun basketball. Missouri will be able to get theirs in transition, but I actually like this matchup for Memphis even sans 42-year-old DeAndre Williams. Mizzou was an atrocious shot defense last year and truly, truly horrific in defending anything inside the perimeter. I think Memphis might have a giant advantage at the rim, particularly if Connor Vanover struggles against Memphis’s athletic wings. On the other end, Mizzou generates lots of open looks from deep, but Memphis was great at shutting those down a year ago. Still: true road game, anything can happen.
FOUR STARS
#89 Duquesne (-1.5) vs. #97 Charleston, 6:00 PM ET, CBSSN. I’m not entirely sure why this is a neutral, but I’m glad it’s being played at all. This is simply a very good basketball game between two teams that should win a lot of basketball games this year. Duquesne was a horrific defensive rebounding team a year ago but added Andrei Savrasov and Dusan Mahorcic, two fabulous rebounders with offensive upside, to help with that. These are two elite spacing offenses, so it’ll be a fun game.
#24 Texas A&M at #35 Ohio State (-2), 7:00 PM ET, Peacock. Sort of a basketball version of a helmet game, but this does hold real early-season importance for both teams. This is Texas A&M’s second true road game against a top-50 non-conference opponent (Dec. 2022, Memphis) of the FIVE YEAR BUZZ WILLIAMS ERA, so congrats for finally nutting up with your schedule. Ohio State really, really needs a win to keep their fans on board with Chris Holtmann.
#111 Indiana State at #10 Alabama (-17), 8:00 PM ET, SECN+. Is this likely going to be an Alabama win by double digits? Yes. Is this also a very awesome and very watchable game between #1 and #2 in America in rim-and-three rate? Yes. I think Indiana State has a real shot to hang around given the variance of both offensive systems.
#8 Tennessee at #20 Wisconsin (-1), 9:00 PM ET, Peacock. This has the potential to be a really, really awful game to watch. Both defenses are experts at dragging their opponents into unwatchable sludge. Sure, Tennessee looked great in their game against Michigan State…but have you considered that the Kohl Center is the scariest, most nonsensical venue in the world? Luckily for Tennessee, the opposing offense is mostly just scary in the bad way. This feels like a first-to-60 game.
#29 San Diego State at #36 BYU (-2), 9:00 PM ET, ESPN+. Such a good nightcap to go with the other 9:00 games. This is a great early test for both teams and is BYU’s only real competitive game over the first three weeks of the season. SDSU’s schedule is far tougher and a loss here/versus St. Mary’s next Friday makes a 2-2 start after the title game run an unfortunate reality. Should be some real heat here as well given the old Mountain West rivalry.
THREE STARS
#33 Virginia (-1) vs. #39 Florida, 7:00 PM ET, ACC Network. Purely a jersey game. This is listed but I cannot imagine it being terribly watchable. I think Virginia’s defense is obviously the best unit in the game, which means that Florida is probably going to have to bomb away from deep to create the variance they need. I’m not 100% sold on them somehow being far superior after losing Colin Castleton, but this is a good test for all of that transfer talent.
#73 Wake Forest at #57 Georgia (-5.5), 7:00 PM ET, SEC Network. If you like games with good basketball coaches, one of the two teams playing in this game has one on their sideline.
#123 Princeton at #113 Hofstra (-3), 7:00 PM ET, FloHoops. Unfortunate that it is on FloHoops, but alas. This should be quite entertaining! You know what you’re getting with Princeton: lots of threes, few OREBs, and fewer TOs. I don’t think enough people know about Hofstra’s Tyler Thomas, an absolute mercenary of a shooter. This is a guy who shot 55% on midrange twos last season and 40% from three. A bucket problem.
#142 Belmont at #108 Furman (-4.5), 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+. If you’re already in the know you don’t need a sales pitch here, but these are two of the best-coached half-court offenses in America facing off.
#69 Dayton at #40 Northwestern (-6.5), 8:30 PM ET, BTN. Another good early-season test for both sides. I think Dayton has a lot more to prove than Northwestern does. Anthony Grant still hasn’t played in a single NCAA Tournament game, and if he doesn’t win a lot of games this year it seems like he’s done. As an actual basketball game, though, I don’t anticipate this to be all that fun. The two defenses figure to have a lot of advantages over their opposing offenses. It feels like a game where the box score is just about what team got more shots off.
#71 Yale at #5 Gonzaga (-15), 9:00 PM ET, ESPN+. I don’t know that this will be the most competitive game, but it’s a launching pad for my Yale bandwagon if they can pull off a road stunner. They’re going to be at a severe athletic disadvantage, though, so a blowout is eminently possible. Fingers crossed they nail a bunch of jumpers like I know they can to hang around.
#51 Clemson (-4) vs. #90 UAB, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a neutral-site game at the Asheville Championship, with the winner likely playing Maryland on Sunday. It’s going to get lost in the shuffle with other games, but this is a fun one for both sides. Clemson really needs to not lose this game given a non-con slate that only gets tougher from here, with at least three games where they’re underdogs incoming. If UAB wins this one, a 12-2 or 13-1 start heading into a January game with FAU is quite possible.
THE ROULETTE WHEEL GAME OF THE WEEK #2
#185 Gardner-Webb at #14 Arkansas (-20), 8:00 PM ET, ESPN+. This is another one where it’s unlikely anything of note happens, but I’m keeping an eye on it just in case. The main complaint with the Muss era at Arkansas is that they refuse, simply put, to take or make jump shots. Last year’s offense was an atrocious building job that got to the Sweet Sixteen on talent alone. This year’s group looks a lot more optimistic in that regard, but there’s no plus shooter on the roster, just a lot of solid ones.
Now, against Purdue, Arkansas did take 39% of their shots from three, which would’ve been their third-highest rate last season. Still, I think Gardner-Webb is worth paying attention to. Tim Craft’s defense forced the third-most dribble jumpers of any team last year and slows the game down to a crawl. Could be nothing, could be something. That’s the fun of the roulette wheel.
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11
THREE STARS
#101 Utah State at #99 Bradley (-3), 8:00 PM ET, ESPN+. Well, it’s college football Saturday so I doubt you’ll be watching, but Bradley has elected to frontload their schedule with a lot of intriguing games. This is one of them, where Utah State is going to undergo a gigantic stylistic shift to Danny Sprinkle’s style of basketball.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #14 Maryland at #6 South Carolina, 1 PM ET, ABC. I think that on paper this could be a five-star game given SoCar’s vulnerabilities, but I trust Dawn Staley too much for this not to eventually be a double-digit win. Still: good game that you should pay attention to.
NCAAW: #9 Indiana at #15 Stanford, 5 PM ET, ESPN. Indiana losing Grace Berger to the WNBA is a huge loss and I think they might be a little overrated because of it, but having Mackenzie Holmes around is going to buoy the boat a good bit. Charlie Creme at ESPN says that Stanford’s Cameron Brink has a serious shot to knock off Caitlin Clark as NPOY, so that’s absolutely worth noting.
THREE STARS
Asheville Championship Game 3, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN2. We’re assuming this will likely be Maryland vs. Clemson, but it could be Maryland vs. UAB. Good game worth keeping an eye on.
#171 San Jose State at #43 Texas Tech (-13), 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a really intriguing affair, mostly because San Jose State was a giant overachiever last year and TTU is in Year One of the Grant McCasland era. This is the first somewhat competitive game the Red Raiders will play, which excites me because we’ll get to see McCasland’s defense against an SJSU offense that creates a lot of quality shots and looked excellent in half-court last year.
#144 Weber State at #38 Saint Mary’s (-13), 8:00 PM ET, ESPN+. I think Saint Mary’s is always worth watching, but this has an added intrigue for me with Dillon Jones and Weber State coming to town. A not-insane thing to say is that Jones may be the highest draft pick to play against SMC all season, a uniquely dominant force capable of 18 & 12 this season.