The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
EDITOR’S NOTE! Normally, I would put the Saturday and Sunday games in here too, but it’s such an overloaded weekend that I’ll do a separate post for that on Saturday morning (or Friday evening) for you to enjoy. On we go. Also, the weekend edition will have the essay-style thing. I’ve got a pounder of a headache and it wasn’t even drinking-related. Go Lions.
MONDAY, JANUARY 6
A GAME
None today. Actually:
Blue Velvet (1986), streaming on MAX. I was reading Vulture the other day, which I don’t do as much as I used to but still check in on occasionally. They’re great at the clickbait-y What’s Streaming On [Service] This Month posts that hook me in. This is the first I’ve seen pretty much any Lynch movie on a streaming service that’s not Criterion or one with additional costs.
Blue Velvet is fantastic and one of the scant few Lynch things I think a normal person would watch. Next step: finally get Wild at Heart on one of these. Alternately! Central Cinema, I know at least one of you guys reads this blog. Help me out.
B GAME
Wisconsin at Rutgers, 7 PM ET, FS1. If you want to watch basketball, this is the best game of the night. Wisconsin fascinates me. They’ve moved from traditional Ryan/Gard toiletball to how MVC mid-majors used to a decade ago. (One of their top statistical comps is 2017-18 Wichita.) Rutgers is an awful watch, has exactly two good players, yet can still win some games because those two good players are very good.
C GAMES
#74 TCU at #3 Houston (-17), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. God, we’re in for another year of Why Is Houston So High in the KenPom NET They Don’t Look Like They Play The Way I Want Them to Play Discourse. Guys, it does matter if you can beat teams like BYU or TCU by 30. A rant is coming on the fabled ‘eye test’ one of these days, though Jon Fendler probably already did it the right way.
#30 Ohio State (-7) at #120 Minnesota, 9 PM ET, FS1. At risk of being Dieblered, I don’t like the look of this OSU team going forward. You can look at it two ways: 1) They’re 9-5 despite opponents shooting 78% from the FT line, own wins over Texas and Kentucky, and could easily be 10-4 with an additional win over Pitt; 2) They’re 9-5 despite opponents shooting 27.7% from three while OSU has shot 38.1%.
#321 Grambling State at #319 Texas Southern (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Well, hey, ESPNU showcase between two of the five best SWAC teams.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 7
A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
#4 Tennessee (-1) at #7 Florida, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Newer readers may or may not know this, but once upon a time for six straight seasons, I previewed every Tennessee men’s basketball game under the tag Show Me My Opponent. I resolved to not do that this year and expand to national coverage instead because it interests me much more, but well, here we are. As I thought might happen, Tennessee would find themselves in a game this year that carries massive national and regional importance.
Arguably, the story might not be Tennessee. Florida was seen as a borderline top-25 team at the start of the year. Their coach is in the middle of an internal investigation, supposedly, over various social media harassment cases that I am not qualified to opine upon. You probably haven’t heard much about that for a while because they are very good indeed and haven’t needed to protect Todd Golden because he’s protected himself with the on-court product. Just how it goes.
This game, beyond all items of shooting variance, fouls, and the like, is three-pronged:
Does either team keep their opponent off the boards? By pure rebounding margin per 100 possessions, this is #9 playing at #6, and Tennessee’s numbers are arguably more impressive given a more difficult schedule. If either team avoids a rebounding demolition it aids their own odds significantly.
How does Tennessee tamp down the best offense they’ve played this year? Florida’s #4 in OREB%, which is one thing. They’re also top-30 in 2PT%, take and make lots of threes, and have been dominant in transition. The closest that Tennessee has kind of played to it is Illinois, which I thought they handled well but was also a true 1-of-1 game that had five billion foul calls.
Likewise: how does Florida score against the best defense they’ve played this year? This is sort of the same thing, but not. I mentioned Florida’s schedule for this reason: this will be the first top-25 defense they play this season. The closest thing to it, and it isn’t a good comparison at all, was Virginia, who Florida handled exceptionally but also is far less athletic than Tennessee.
Because of home court and the natural order of life in the SEC, I lean Florida here but it’s a true toss-up.
A GAMES
#28 Cincinnati at #22 Baylor (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Another year of very good Big 12 games getting shoved to ESPN Plus. Baylor has experienced horrific opponent 3PT% luck - 38.3%?!? - while Cincinnati has enjoyed the opposite at 28.2%. It probably won’t fully swap here, but that’s something to keep an eye on for the fortunes of each going forward.
#12 Michigan at #20 UCLA (-2), 10 PM ET, Peacock. I have a concept thanks to a friend of the Substack, the Vox Slug: which teams drag their opponents into Toiletball the best? What I mean by this is not just “who’s best at defense” but moreso “who’s best at defensively making their opponent tough to watch?” I think UCLA is the leader this year by a significant margin. The number of aesthetically enjoyable UCLA games played this year is one (their Oregon win), though the number of competitive UCLA games is far higher.
B GAMES
#24 St. John’s (-2) at #54 Xavier, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. A pretty easy “is this team going to play better” thing I do is subtracting their 2PT% delta from their 3PT% delta. St. John’s sits at -3.7% 3PT right now but +8.6% 2PT, giving them a +12.3% overall delta. This is a top-15 rate in the country, generally indicating SJU is due better results. Of course, Arizona is 4th in this and I’ve been beating their drum for a month, so maybe I’m the fool.
#18 Kentucky (-1) at #50 Georgia, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Here’s all I’ll say on this one: Mike White wins this one and I’ll hold off on some slanderous statements about his yet-again unwatchable offense I have locked and loaded in the chamber.
#16 Arizona at #37 West Virginia (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I think this WVU team is a very good lesson in preseason expectations and/or roster building in the portal era. Yes, Tucker DeVries has been out, but Darian DeVries was excellent at Drake whenever his son didn’t play. You knew Javon Small was really good, that Amani Hansberry had a quality pedigree, that when DeVries the Younger would play they’d look fantastic.
Overall, the fit of the roster looks tremendous even if the talent maybe didn’t. It’s the same as it was at Drake. The same scenario is happening at Vanderbilt, who got left for dead in preseason polling despite a roster that obviously fit very well together even with sub-prime talent. Next year, when you read about X team spending $7M on their portal haul en route to an NIT bid, maybe just go for fit instead.
#23 Pittsburgh at #2 Duke (-12), 7 PM ET, ESPN. It would be very funny if Pitt did this AGAIN. Once was pretty entertaining, twice would be a great trend.
#14 Texas Tech (-1) at #43 BYU, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. I can’t call it on BYU just yet, especially given some poor 3PT% luck, but a 1-3 record in four games versus Quad 1 + 2 is an ugly start when you’ve got a bubble team. BYU’s also getting whomped on turnovers in these games in a way they didn’t last year.
#15 Mississippi State (-2) at #44 Vanderbilt, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Great coaching battle here that I’m really looking forward to. Road fave Chris Jans is fine (23-24-1 ATS) but home dog Mark Byington is almost .500 straight-up in this position. My main fear here on Vandy’s side: this is their first game all year against a top-50 offense, and against an awful offensive slate they’ve given up an alarming number of offensive rebounds and some easy twos.
#1 Auburn (-10) at #40 Texas, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I thought that Auburn actually looked somewhat vulnerable in spots versus Mizzou, as the Tigers out-rebounded the superior Tigers 13-6 offensively and drew 16-16 in turnovers. Auburn’s 3PT heater (10-21; Mizzou 7-23) gave them the necessary cushion to be fine. Eventually, they’ll lose; everyone does. But it says something about how great they are that I’m nitpicking an 84-68 win over KenPom’s #53 team.
#52 SMU at #35 North Carolina (-5), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. Projected 88-83 final here, in case you’re looking for the closest thing to chugging 22 gallons of fuel that college basketball can offer.
C GAMES
#32 Clemson at #42 Louisville (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. True story: a win here and Louisville is 11-5, 4-1 ACC with six Quad 1 or 2 wins. That sounds a lot more like a Tournament team than people are indicating!
NCAAW: #2 UCLA (-26.5) at #108 Purdue, 7 PM ET, BTN. There have been exactly two non-top 100 teams to keep it within 26.5 of UCLA out of eight tries: Colgate (lost 81-63) and Hawaii (lost 70-49). Doubtful!
NCAAW: #9 TCU (-13.5) at #71 Kansas, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. A real metrics-versus-record quandary. Kansas is 11-3 and 2-3 against Quads 1 + 2, but is also 4-0 in games decided by six or less. But! They’ve yet to lose to anyone by more than 14.
#63 Georgetown at #10 Marquette (-13), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. We’re going to have to come to terms with Georgetown being Actually Good. Their schedule so far is awful, but +15.1% in 2PT% and +6% on the boards is very good. This stretch will tell us if it’s real or not.
#88 Utah at #5 Iowa State (-20), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a conference game now, huh?
#33 Nebraska at #55 Iowa (-1), 8 PM ET, Peacock. Gigantic game for Iowa’s Tournament hopes.
#59 LSU at #53 Missouri (-5), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Illustrating the SEC’s strength here: this translates to more or less a 4-seed in the NIT playing at a 2-seed and it’s a game between two of the three worst teams in the conference. We’ll probably never see this again, unless we do next year.
#65 New Mexico (-6) at #160 Wyoming, 10 PM ET, CBSSN. Look, I know Wyoming isn’t good, but this is always going to be a difficult place to play because it’s Wyoming. The Cowboys have played like a top-100 team at home this year and like the 221st-best team everywhere else.
#95 UNLV at #60 Boise State (-7), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. Same split for Boise, despite their home loss to San Diego State: top-25 team at home, 85th everywhere else. You likely don’t wanna be UNLV here.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 8
A GAMES
NCAAW: #10 Ohio State (-3) at #26 Michigan, 7 PM ET, BTN+. Ohio State is still undefeated at 13-0, but their non-conference schedule brought them just three games against top-100 competition. Going 3-0 is great, of course, but I’m interested in how their offense has been way better at home versus away from home. Their defense travels no matter what. Will the offensive firepower of Chance Gray and Cotie McMahon do the same? Michigan is a very 26th-place team: not really capable of beating the elites but capable of being *just* frustrating enough to all opponents.
NCAAW: #7 USC (-7.5) at #27 Maryland, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. I never check the AP Poll for much because it’s pointless, but I did see that Maryland is 8th as of the time of writing. I get it; they’re 13-0, 3-0 in conference play. But their scoring margin against a fairly pedestrian schedule is kind of alarming; it’s the 22nd-best in the sport despite nine of their 13 games being Quad 4 competition. A win here would go a long way towards convincing me they’re real.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #51 George Mason at #41 Richmond (-5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. If you want a Three Bid Atlantic 10 the way I do, Richmond arguably needs this one more than GMU does. A fun game by any measurement.
#19 UConn at #38 Villanova (-1), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Don’t look now, but Villanova is 10-5 with a pair of Quad 2 wins and is 8-2 since their embarrassing neutral court loss to Virginia on November 15. They’ve enjoyed very good 3PT% luck (41.5%) but they look the part of a real top-50, maybe top-40 team. That being said, any game where Dan Hurley is (technically) an underdog seems bad for the favorite.
#29 Ole Miss at #39 Arkansas (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Legally speaking, someone does have to win this game. I trust these teams a combined amount of Not At All and still think Ole Miss’s defense is cruising for an extreme wake-up call, but I also think Arkansas’s offense is a horrific watch in half-court. Who knows.
#72 Drake at #87 Bradley (-3), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. A mild amount of shine has come off of this thanks to a surprise Drake loss last week, but this is still for the MVC crown and is an ongoing experiment of Bradley’s ability to continue shooting 43% or higher from three for an entire season.
NCAAW: #20 Michigan State (-2) at #33 Nebraska, 8 PM ET, BTN+. Against top 100 competition, MSU is 75th offensively and 18th defensively; Nebraska is 13th offensively and 76th defensively. Some stoppable force meets moveable object energy when MSU has the ball. I lean Nebraska here.
NCAAW: #6 Kansas State (-10) at #29 Utah, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. If I was more confident in Utah’s odds here this would’ve been in the A Games section. KSU’s interior defense is so stout that I think Utah’s 2PT% might be heavily reduced here in a bad way, but it could lead to more kickout threes for the Utes, which inherently creates a lot of variance. I still think the average outcome here is what it looks like, which is something in the range of a 8-12 point KSU win.
#36 Penn State at #8 Illinois (-9), 9 PM ET, BTN. Something I have an eye on here: away from home, Penn State takes just 29% of their shots from deep. At home, the Illini take 52% (!) of theirs from downtown. If that holds we’re going to have a shooting variance special. And a math problem for Penn State, probably.
#11 Texas A&M (-1) at #45 Oklahoma, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. If Oklahoma would like to avoid being 2023-24 Ole Miss, they should win this game. My recommendation, free of charge.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #159 Colgate at #119 Lehigh (-8), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Key piece in the race for the Patriot League title.
NCAAW: #36 Oklahoma State (-3) at #65 Cincinnati, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Both teams could really use this one for Tournament purposes. They also have bizarre opposite 3PT% splits: OK State +13.3%, Cincy -9.4%. I imagine those won’t hold.
NCAAW: #12 West Virginia (-10.5) at #63 Texas Tech, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Need Actual West Virginia to start matching Hypothetical West Virginia’s results.
#9 Alabama (-8) at #75 South Carolina, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. People have pointed to South Carolina as the likely loser of this year’s SEC gauntlet. I generally agree with this stance, but the wilder aspect is Alabama, a top-10 team that has been in the KP top-10 for all but three days this year, is projected to go 11-7 in conference play. Drop this same team in the 2019-20 SEC and they probably go 16-2.
#154 Milwaukee at #136 Purdue Fort Wayne (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Big one in Horizon League Roulette. You have as good an idea who eventually wins this league as I do.
#181 UNC Asheville at #190 Longwood (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is between two top-four Big South squads and is similarly big for standings purposes.
NCAAW: #28 Baylor (-5.5) at #60 Arizona, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Darianna Littlepage-Buggs for Baylor is evolving into a star: 115 ORtg on 23% USG, 14% OREB%, 23% DREB%, a 2% Block% and Steal%, and +9.6 Box Plus-Minus. This may only be enough to earn her Third Team All-Big 12, but a hearty hat tip to a great all-around player.
#68 St. Bonaventure (-2) at #114 Saint Louis, 8 PM ET, Peacock. People wrote off Saint Louis after an admittedly rough start, but the Billikens are quietly 2-0 in conference play and are functionally eight points short of a 12-3 start. They’re better than 9-6 implies.
#57 Arizona State at #13 Kansas (-10), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. As much as I dislike Bobby Hurley’s coaching philosophies, an opinion I’ve shared too many times, he’s been fairly good as a road underdog: 20-15 ATS post-COVID. My fear here would be the same as literally every Arizona State game: can these guys score inside? If not, it’s gonna get late early. Per EvanMiya, Arizona State’s 21-47 when they shoot below 49% from two in the last 4.5 seasons. When they hit 49% or better, they’re 51-18. Likely a problem against a KU side allowing a 44.9% hit rate.
#116 South Dakota State at #115 St. Thomas (-4), 9 PM ET, Midco Sports Plus. This is your future Summit League title game, I think. This service is apparently $79 a year.
NCAAW: #88 Colorado State at #45 UNLV (-10), 9:30 PM ET, MWN. Top two in the Mountain West going at it, though UNLV is pretty clear of the field.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 9
A GAMES
NCAAW: #15 LSU at #19 Tennessee (PK), 6:30 PM ET, SECN+/ESPN+. An extremely mild amount of shine has come off this because Tennessee lost 87-86 at home to an excellent Oklahoma team over the weekend, but it’s still a fantastic battle between Kim Caldwell’s go-go system and Kim Mulkey’s more traditional everything-in-the-paint style of ball. A similar issue that cropped up for Tennessee in the Oklahoma game (Tennessee has no great post defender) could crop up here, but simultaneously, LSU has quietly been weak for their standards in perimeter defense. Very fun game.
NCAAW: #11 Duke at #8 North Carolina (-4), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. True, real hoop. Kara Lawson has Duke humming on both ends of the court this year with a defense that’s pretty annoying to play against and an offense that generates lots of good shots in the paint. UNC has to scrap and claw here to avoid a rebounding blowout, and if they slow down Duke’s Toby Fournier, you still have to contend with the masterful Oluchi Okananwa and others. Home court means a lot, though, and this rivalry can get just as heated on the women’s side.
B GAMES
#27 Oregon at #30 Ohio State (-3), 6 PM ET, BTN. Plausibly the Anxiety Game of the Week. Let’s say Ohio State splits their games this week at Minnesota and here. That makes them 10-6, 2-3 B10 after a lot of Week One crowing when they beat Texas by outshooting the Longhorns 50%-26% from three. Just noticing.
NCAAW: #22 Iowa (-1.5) at #36 Illinois, 7 PM ET, BTN+. Iowa did well for themselves in non-con play, but Illinois could use a win like this one. At 11-4, 1-3 B1G, a loss here puts them in real danger of being behind the 8-ball far earlier than they’d like to.
NCAAW: #20 Vanderbilt at #24 Ole Miss (-2.5), 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. Two elite turnover-forcing defenses, two elite offensive rebounding teams, and two coaches with polar-opposite views of how to get it done in half-court defensively. Ole Miss gives up fewer three-point attempts per game than all but three teams and funnels everything inside; Vandy doesn’t have their sort of rim protection, instead choosing to pack it in and force a lot of jumpers. That’s a fun matchup against an Ole Miss team that takes few threes.
NCAAW: #12 Oklahoma (-6) at #34 Mississippi State, 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. I love this Oklahoma team, sue me. They’re elite on the boards and just feel giant even when it’s their backcourt leading the show. I love this matchup for them because it’ll go against type a bit; State wants to force as many jumpers as humanly possible.
NCAAW: #16 Alabama at #4 Texas (-13), 8 PM ET, SECN+. Looming large over this game is the status of Sarah Ashlee Barker, the do-it-all guard for Alabama who suffered a leg injury last week. Alabama claims she’s day-to-day. With her off the court, Alabama is about seven points worse per 100 possessions with all of that impact coming offensively. That’s huge in a game where Alabama will need anything and everything to bring home the upset W.
NCAAW: #17 NC State (-1.5) at #32 California, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. I’m sure ACC fans love watching games that start at 10 PM local, huh? The road trip aspect for NCSU is huge here, but so is Cal’s major turnover problems. In six games against Quads 1-3 they’re -7.9 per 100 possessions in turnover margin. That’s pretty terrible, and if it holds here, they’ll need NCSU to shoot horribly to win.
NCAAW: #18 Florida State (-5) at #41 Stanford, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Same style of game but not. Why? Stanford’s 1-6 against Quads 1-3 and has played like the 75th-best team in the nation.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #26 Kentucky (-6) at #52 Florida, 5 PM ET, SEC Network. I still don’t think we know a lot about Kentucky but I’m afraid we absolutely do about Florida, who is 1-6 versus Quads 1-3 with a -8.2 turnover margin per 100 possessions. No thanks.
NCAAW: #23 Oregon (-8.5) at #67 Penn State, 6 PM ET, BTN+. How important is the tremendous Gracie Merkle for Penn State? Per Hoop-Explorer, with her on the court (60% of all possessions), Penn State plays like a top-45 team nationally. When she’s off: barely inside the top 100.
#18 Purdue (-4) at #74 Rutgers, 6 PM ET, FS1. Sure. If Dylan Harper can’t play my interest in watching this diminishes greatly.
NCAAW: #57 Virginia Tech at #13 Georgia Tech (-18), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Main thing at play here is if Georgia Tech can take care of business to get to 16-0, which would be a wild thing.
#153 Texas State at #110 Troy (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Troy has a heck of a week: Arkansas State and Texas State, possibly the two best non-Troy teams in the league.
NCAAW: #120 Southeastern Louisiana at #99 Stephen F. Austin (-4.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Potential Southland Conference title game preview.
#99 Grand Canyon (-2) at #162 Utah Valley, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Grand Canyon is the best team in the WAC but not by as much as you’d think. This is a good test for how real or fake that line of logic is.
#94 Arkansas State at #108 South Alabama (-1), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This also might be a Sun Belt title game preview. South Alabama’s a lot better than they get credit for.
#157 Northern Colorado at #184 Montana State (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Probably the two best in the Big Sky this year if I had to guess. It’s a wide-open league.
#62 UC Irvine (-6) at #141 Cal State Northridge, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. The Big West race between UCI and UC San Diego is so neck-and-neck that this is almost a must-win already for UCI. Slip up here and you’ll be behind the 8-ball.
#80 Oregon State at #77 Santa Clara (-3), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Just a fun WCC game between two of the wildcards in the league, no other notes.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 10
A GAME
#20 UCLA at #26 Maryland (-3), 8 PM ET, FOX. Through 27 games, the Big Ten home team is 18-9. I do think this is notable, even given the small sample size, just because of the extensive travel the denizens of this conference must undertake this year. UCLA will have quite the six day run on their hands: road Nebraska on January 4 (lost), home Michigan on January 7, then road Maryland on this date. Hopefully, Sebastian Mack and crew are building up frequent flier miles to use later in their lives.
B GAMES
#185 Merrimack (-3) at #288 Sacred Heart, 11 AM ET, ESPN+. Well, for one, this is MAAC-best Merrimack playing a fringe challenger in the league. It’s also at 11 AM on a Friday, one of the strangest start times I can remember, but it also means that if you have an email job and find yourself in need of something to watch on your lunch break, you have this.
D2: #23 Moorhead State at #5 Southwest Minnesota (-4.5), 8:30 PM ET, streaming. These are two excellent D2 programs in their own right, but in a somewhat standalone spot on Friday evening you can tap in to see both before March. This is an elite guard-on-guard matchup, but also an excellent Jacob-on-Jakob: Jacob Beeninga for Moorhead (17.7 PPG on 29% USG, 24% Assist), Jakob Braaten for SMSU (12.9 PPG on 61% 2PT/37% 3PT, 6.2 RPG, 3.7 APG).
C GAMES
NCAAW: #137 Illinois Chicago at #47 Belmont (-15.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. It’s not much, but it’s honest work.