Week 10 Watchlist (M-F): The Mind Palace Top 25
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Hello and welcome to the Watchlist, a weekly column here at the Substack where I cover what I think are the best games at all levels of college hoops in a given week. These watchlist posts are always free, by the way. First, a short essay.
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
Check any sort of college basketball or hoops-adjacent twitter feed on a Monday afternoon and you’re bound to find numerous people showcasing and/or shouting their disagreements with the AP Poll. I find it almost sort of cute at this point, given all of our other resources.
Prior to the mid-2000s or so, the AP Poll really was the only ranking that the average fan was aware of. People were probably somewhat aware of the RPI as an NCAA Tournament metric but only barely. Being #1 in the AP Poll used to really mean something, as did being top 5, top 10, or for some, ranked at all. It was the poll of record and the only thing we had.
In 2024, it feels like a relic of different times that we somehow never got rid of. Think of it: a group of randomly selected media members, almost all of whom cover a certain team/conference and therefore have inherent bias towards that, all gather to submit their votes. How many games are they watching? If their team is playing on that day, it’s probably not many.
Let’s say you cover…I don’t know, Duke, and Duke is playing on a Wednesday at 7. You get to the arena at 5 or 5:30, and by the time you wrap postgame coverage and a column, it’s no earlier than 10 and probably later. We’ll give you the average American commute - 25 minutes - and place you home at 10:30. That might be too charitable, but hey: you’ve arrived home just in time to watch the final 10 minutes of the 9 PM ET game on ESPN. Maybe.
It’s pretty silly that this still exists. At the same time, I find myself happy it does. What would media members not allowed to vote in the AP Poll whimper about on a Monday afternoon if the AP Poll didn’t exist? Some of them (no names necessary) whimper about KenPom but it just looks silly because you’re yelling at an algorithm, not a person or persons. I’ve yelled at an Excel sheet before and I felt like an idiot. It’s not the same.
So, sure, go on existing, AP Poll. How bad can it really be? It’s like the AP Poll in the BCS era: the only influence it has, if any, is on what teams have little numbers next to them on broadcasts. It has no influence on the things that matter. It’s a lark. Laughing at it weekly is kind of funny. Just don’t take it too seriously.
In fact, here’s a ranking you can take with similar unseriousness! Presenting The Will Warren Mind Palace Top 25, a ranking that I’ll barf up whenever I am bored. If this reappears this season when my brain is not obsessing over every little detail of the incoming national championship game it’ll be a mild upset. I look forward to the hatred and rage in the comments.
Purdue. I think at some level the ‘correct’ poll is the proper mix of resume + analytics; a lot of people go too far with one or the other. Purdue is the proper mix for now.
Houston. Might be the actual best team. We’ll see.
Arizona. This is the only poll that will refrain from punishing the Wildcats for losing a shooting variance game.
Tennessee.
Connecticut. Tennessee has the same number of elite wins (Wisconsin/Illinois vs. UNC/Gonzaga) and is ahead of UConn in KenPom.
Kansas. Deeply annoying team that is nonetheless probably the most talented one.
North Carolina.
Wisconsin. Guys, they have wins over Marquette and Michigan State and their ‘bad’ loss is to Providence on the road. They’re really good.
Auburn. Good team, whether you like it or not. I don’t.
Baylor. When the three-point regression finally hits they’ll be ranked 19th or so.
Illinois. Need more data.
Marquette. Gets ranked ahead of BYU because better wins and I believe in them more.
BYU. I still like them but Big 12 play has started with a loss and their only good win is a home one over San Diego State.
Oklahoma.
Kentucky.
Alabama. All more or less equal so I ranked by best wins. I still don’t trust Alabama and am unconvinced they’ll shoot this well for an entire season.
San Diego State. Beating Gonzaga on the road counts for something still.
Duke. Sorry, what are the best wins here? Michigan State and Baylor at neutrals are good. Losing at Arkansas increasingly looks really bad. So does losing at Georgia Tech.
Creighton. Step it up fellas.
Colorado State.
Clemson.
Dayton.
Utah.
Iowa State.
Nevada. Ok this ended up being less fun than I’d hoped. Whatever.
All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. All D-2 and lower rankings are via Massey.
MONDAY, JANUARY 8
FIVE STARS
THE [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED AGAIN PLEASE STOP SWEARING] NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH Might just drive 2.5 hours to watch this one with my dad, a Michigan fan for 40+ years. All the basketball games on this night are snoozers anyways. Don’t shoot the messenger.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 9
THE FIRST SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#9 BYU at #13 Baylor (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Yes, there’s two this week. The other will be in the weekend preview. Some of the shine has been taken off of this game with BYU dropping a home game to Cincinnati and Baylor needing overtime to escape a bad Oklahoma State team. I’m not sure that changes the fundamental reason to watch this game, which is that it’s a BYU team averaging 88.2 PPG (#4 nationally) playing a Baylor team averaging 87.5 (#5). The only other game you can currently get with two top-5 scoring teams the rest of the conference season is Alabama/Kentucky on February 24.
As such, this wins a close battle between another amazing Big 12 game on Tuesday night and a similarly scoring-heavy women’s game. BYU’s defense has graded out very well everywhere I’ve looked, but Baylor’s defense remains…uh…I don’t know, Iowa-esque? Is that nice enough? It might be too nice. I’m really excited for this one because both have specific areas in which they can target the other’s weakness: BYU targeting Baylor’s awful transition defense, Baylor targeting BYU’s struggles in covering off-ball screens. I’d be disappointed if this doesn’t crack 150 combined points, and really, it should crack 160.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #22 Maryland at #16 Michigan State (-2.5), 6 PM ET, BTN. This is a borderline version of the above BYU/Baylor affair. Maryland ranks 20th in PPG nationally and MSU a beautiful 3rd, so this will also be pretty nuts. More interestingly, these are two of the fastest-paced teams in the nation. HHS predicts 78 (!) possessions in this game, which would be the fastest men’s pace by over a full possession. These two teams have a combined four players who average 14 PPG or more a game, so get ready. What an opening act for a tremendous week of games, people.
#1 Houston (-5) at #19 Iowa State, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This is like the defensive version of BYU/Baylor, which is watchable in its own strange way. This is #1 (Houston) versus #4 (Iowa State) in opponent PPG, which is the only time all season a game between two top-5 scoring defenses is scheduled to be played. (The next-best one is the two San Francisco/Saint Mary’s games.) This is also really interesting for an obvious reason: Houston is the last undefeated team left standing. Iowa State shoots it better than they do, but Houston’s pure volume of shots they get up in a given game is untouchable. Can that get them over the hump here in a terrifying place to play?
FOUR STARS
#39 Texas at #28 Cincinnati (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. My assumption that Cincinnati would be the odd team out of the Big 12 Bubble Shuffle may be instantly wrong, thanks to their defeat of BYU. Meanwhile, Texas’s best wins are over a bad LSU team and UNC Greensboro. Rodney Terry I am telling you big dog you badly, badly need this win. You need it. You are way behind the 8-ball.
#11 Duke (-4) at #53 Pittsburgh, 9 PM ET, ESPN. I like Jon Scheyer; I think that this Duke team is more dangerous for March purposes than people are giving it credit for. That being said: are you aware that under Scheyer, Duke is 5-8 in road games and 3-10 ATS? That’s the #352 win rate in the entire sport at the moment. 352nd!
#25 Colorado State (-1) at #66 Boise State, 9 PM ET, MWC Network. I like this Colorado State team a lot and believe in them quite a bit for March purposes. I also think Boise might be a bad matchup to be coming on the heels of a tight road loss to Utah State, because it is a similarly brutal place to play. The fun thing about CSU is that when they hit shots they’re more or less unbeatable. If they don’t hit shots, there isn’t much of a backup plan. When posting a 51% eFG% or worse the last two seasons they’re 1-14. Otherwise: 27-6. That’s life for a team who’s ranked 341st, 355th, and 331st in OREB% the last three years.
#2 Purdue (-9) at #51 Nebraska, 9 PM ET, Peacock. The purpose of this newsletter is never to tell you what to do or who to root for, but at the same time, how am I supposed to tell you not to root for this man?
Go Huskers.
#35 Texas A&M at #5 Auburn (-10), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Here’s the thing: I, too, am ready to throw in the towel on Texas A&M. Those guys looked utterly atrocious against a bad LSU team at home on Saturday night. Nasty, nasty, nasty. And yet: since Buzz Williams was hired, they’re the second-best ATS team in SEC play. He’s also 11-5 ATS as a road underdog of 7+ points. Coupled with a horrific 3PT% deficit of -7.6% (Auburn’s is +3.8%), I still think it’s a matter of time until regression in a positive sense hits hard. This gives me the same vibes, though obviously on a less hold-your-nose scale, of Alabama/Vanderbilt on Saturday.
THREE STARS
#110 VCU at #88 George Mason (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Useful data point in the race for 4th-place in the Atlantic 10. A thing worth noting here: George Mason ranks as the fifth-luckiest team in America, per ShotQuality. Considering #1 in that stat lost by 26 on Saturday night, might wanna keep an eye on this.
NCAAW: #58 Minnesota at #29 Michigan (-9.5), 8 PM ET, BTN. Two excellent defenses. Minnesota really needs this win for NCAA Tournament purposes; Michigan needs it mostly to keep pace in the race for a Big Ten double-bye.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 10
Alright, this is a monster day: 16 different games. It’s one of the most packed weekdays I can remember, so here you go.
FIVE STARS
#57 Indiana State at #69 Drake (-2), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. LET’S GOOOOOOOOOO. This is Real Hoop. Indiana State remains the #1 League Pass team of 2023-24, a group that is unbelievably electric to watch on offense and honestly very entertaining to watch on defense. Josh Schertz is a star in the making. First, though: gotta beat the master of sorts. Drake’s offense is as good as ever and they’re arguably a little better than preseason expectations. I’m really jacked up for this one; this is a Drake team with a 19-point win over Nevada and a 20-point win over MAC fave Akron taking on Indiana Effing State. Let’s go.
FOUR STARS
#4 Tennessee (-3) at #31 Mississippi State, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. This is the highest-rated game of the night by KenPom but I really struggle with watching MSU’s offense. This is actually a far improved unit from last year’s stinker and it’s still an awful watch, sitting at 80th nationally. State is more or less Discount Tennessee, meaning they’re going to play 40 minutes of terrific defense and 40 minutes of sputtering, frequently annoying offense. That being said this has traditionally been a hard place to win at, so an upset wouldn’t be a surprise.
#24 Clemson (-1) at #70 Virginia Tech, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Panic has set in over the horror of Clemson going 0-2 last week. Losing to Miami and UNC? Unforgivable! And yet: they lost one game because the opponent shot 46% from three. They lost the other because they themselves shot 6% from three. Those are what we call ‘outliers.’ There’s even a book about it. I’ve never read it and won’t, but maybe you will. On the other side Virginia Tech badly needs this win. They’re in danger of falling entirely out of bubble discussion before mid-January.
NCAAW: #42 Penn State at #7 Indiana (-13.5), 7 PM ET, BTN+. Indiana is so freakin’ fun to watch. A gift to the sport, these ladies. Currently shooting 38% from three, sitting 4th in the nation in eFG%…a joy. Oh, and Penn State, who merely averages 89 PPG and sits second in eFG%, they’re also playing in this game. This is a truly insane night of basketball.
NCAAW: #31 West Virginia at #28 Iowa State (-6.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. WVU had their biggest home game in years Saturday and got whooped by Texas, which isn’t shameful in a vacuum but was a tough way to pay off a 13-0 start. Still, these are two Tournament teams that score a lot of points. Iowa State in particular is a fabulous shooting team. Fun!
NCAAW: #12 Baylor (-7.5) at #54 Kansas, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Kansas is now 7-7 and their Tournament hopes are on life support, which is pretty unfortunate for a group that looks like a Tournament-level team. They did beat Nebraska by 17 a few weeks back but they’re 1-7 against top 100 teams. This would be a massive, massive win for their future if they can pull it off.
NCAAW: #49 TCU at #5 Texas (-19.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is an aggressive ranking for a game with a near 20-point spread per Massey, but Texas is electrifying to watch if you haven’t seen them yet. They score 89.5 PPG, rank #1 in the nation in FG%, and are top 15 in both 2PT% and 3PT%. They pretty much never shoot threes but are insanely lethal from the midrange. They’re shooting 41% on midrange jumpers, 46% on floaters, and 69% at the rim, per CBB Analytics.
#6 UConn (-4) at #41 Xavier, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. UConn survived their first serious test sans Clingan by beating Butler on the road…which would be better if Butler didn’t put up 81 points on 68 possessions. ShotQuality scored both teams as shooting well above their means (Butler shot 92% on 25 free throws, for example), but it’s still a little concerning. Anyway, they should win this because Xavier is not good.
#12 Wisconsin (-1) at #36 Ohio State, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. I am unaware of how the average person views them but all of the Ohio State fans I know (an abnormally high number) all hate Chris Holtmann. Like, more than Ryan Day somehow! They want this guy gone. They’re on target for a 9-10 seed, which is well below what OSU fans expect. If he’d like to keep these people on his less-bad side, he needs to win this.
#38 Florida (-2) at #86 Ole Miss, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. A truly thrilling battle here between Florida finally winning a close game and Ole Miss beating the Luckiest Team of 2023-24 charges. I actually lean Ole Miss here, sickeningly.
#20 Oklahoma at #30 TCU (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I was crazy impressed by Oklahoma beating Iowa State on Saturday. Not that they just won, mind you, but that they tossed up 1.11 PPP against one of the very best defenses and defensive systems in America. I’m starting to believe that they’re actually very good. TCU still has not beaten a team ranked higher than 100th, but I was impressed by their outing against Kansas in a game I thought they’d lose by double digits. Very coin-flippy game here.
THREE STARS
#16 Kansas (-6) at #87 UCF, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is exclusively on the list for one reason and one reason only: if Kansas loses, I’m good. I’m simply good on these guys going forward. They have a lot of good wins but they have not played a single 40-minute game of basketball, start to finish, despite having the most talented roster the sport has to offer. I’m well aware that they’re still going to be a 1 or 2 seed despite my protests and will be an odds-on Final Four favorite, but I’m over it. Either get serious about your potential or get out of my face. What an annoying team. All that talent and you can barely be bothered to show up until forced to.
#172 UNC Asheville at #120 High Point (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Sorry, too much venom above. Good game here for an early edge in the Big South race between two of the top four teams.
#8 North Carolina (-6) at #64 NC State, 8 PM ET, ESPN. I think people are finally figuring out just how good this UNC team is, which is that of a serious national title contender and/or likely 2 seed. Unfortunately, I regret to inform you that this is prime territory for a proper NC Stating, which is where a middling NCSU team randomly beats you 80-78 as everyone is puzzled by the process that got you to that outcome.
NCAAW: #3 Iowa (-11.5) at #68 Purdue, 8 PM ET, Peacock. Well, do you or do you not want to watch Caitlin Clark go for 28 and 11? I do, so it’s on here.
#65 Butler at #14 Marquette (-10), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Butler as a road underdog since hiring Thad: 3-9-1 ATS, 1-12 W-L. Marquette as a home fave under Shaka: 30-2 W-L, 20-0 when favored by 9+. This is only on here in case of emergency and because it does technically matter a lot if Butler wins.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 11
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #27 North Carolina at #38 Florida State, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. No elite games on Thursday, but a solid pack of good ones. Here’s the first, which is a game between two second-weekend hopefuls that have polar opposite strengths. UNC’s defense is their calling card, with quality dominance in terms of rebounding and turnovers, while FSU’s entire game is based around scoring fast and in bunches. The FSU experience is also unique because they actively hunt 1-on-1 scoring from their tremendous guards Ta’Niya Latson (21.5 PPG) and O’Mariah Gordon (14 PPG).
D2: #10 Angelo State at #4 West Texas A&M, 8:30 PM ET, streaming. Here’s your lower-level game of the week, at least for Monday-Friday. This is another fun styles clash, with an Angelo State defense holding opponents to 46% on twos taking on a West Texas A&M offense that averages 25 free throw attempts a game. Also a fun, strange fact: Angelo State is shooting 45% on corner threes. WTA&M: 44%.
#17 Michigan State at #7 Illinois (-5), 9 PM ET, FS1. Illinois has played well in the absence of Terrence Shannon but the underlying numbers have been less kind. ShotQuality scored the Northwestern game as just an 8-point win where Illinois shot the lights out and said the Purdue game should’ve had a wider margin. I guess I’m still waiting to be convinced that everything really will be alright. Will it?
#78 UC Irvine (-2) at #143 Hawaii, midnight ET, ESPN+. In the event any of the Eastern Time readers are still up at midnight on a Thursday, which may be no one, this is a very interesting game worth tuning into. These are arguably the two best teams in the Big West, and UC Irvine is trending directly for scary 13 seed territory if they win the conference. These are also the two of the nastiest defensive systems out there: a UC Irvine structure that funnels everything to the paint and forces opponents into excruciating miss after miss, contrasted with a Hawaii defense that runs shooters off the three-point line like they must do it or they’ll die.
THREE STARS
#22 FAU (-7) at #111 Tulane, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. People keep talking about how ‘weird’ FAU’s resume is, which it is, but I do promise we’ve seen something like it. 2016-17 Dayton went 4-2 against Quadrant 1 opposition and 12-4 against Q1/Q2…while going 3-3 against Quadrant 3. They got a 7 seed. Or there’s 2011-12 Southern Miss, who went a combined 9-5 against Q1/Q2 while posting three Q3/Q4 losses. They got a 9 seed. You may want to stop reading before I let you know that no mid-major has ever received an at-large bid with a fourth Quadrant 3/4 loss and only one team ever (2014-15 Xavier) got there with a fourth. Don’t do it.
NCAAW: #65 Texas A&M at #8 LSU (-11.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+.
NCAAW: #44 Miami at #11 Virginia Tech (-10.5), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. Similar games happening at the same time across two conferences: heavy home favorites taking on road teams with gaudy records but little in the way of quality wins.
#138 South Dakota State at #133 St. Thomas (-4), 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. This is #1 vs. #2 in the Summit League, which means it’s always going to be worth a watch. Now to figure out how to watch it.
#137 UNC Greensboro at #91 Samford (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is #3 at #1 in the SoCon, which, again, means it is going to be worth a watch.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 12
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #2 Stanford (-4.5) at #7 Utah, 8 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. This has lost a slight amount of luster as of late, as Utah’s unfortunately beginning to feel the effects of the Gianna Kneepkens injury. Their losses are very defensible, with only the road Arizona loss yesterday being to a non-top 10 team. (Even then, Arizona is one of the 30-40 best NCAAW teams this year.)
I don’t recommend downgrading or skipping over this, though, because it has some last-stand vibes to it of Utah getting a signature win or dying in the process. These are two of the five best offenses in the sport, and Utah’s biggest strengths offensively (generating open threes via handoffs/drop-offs) lines up well with one of Stanford’s few deficiencies on the defensive end. I am also not fully sold on Stanford’s interior defense, a good unit that hasn’t been tested by someone like Alissa Pili yet.
FOUR STARS
D2: #23 Southwest Minnesota at #1 Minnesota State (-8.5), 6:30 PM ET, streaming. This is the good stuff. Southwest plays a very low-and-slow offensive style that results in a lot of made baskets and low turnovers; they generate a truly hilarious amount of points via their frontcourt, led by Jake Phipps (15.7 PPG, 92% FT). Minnesota State is like Luxury Southwest Minnesota: still somewhat slow, but with an embarrassment of shooting riches from the entire court. Look at these CBB Analytics numbers:
Like, come on. They’re lethal in the pick-and-roll and have a deep bag of potential outcomes in terms of shots. This should be fun.
NCAAW: #38 Arizona at #32 Oregon State (-2.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Another fun Pac-12 game with real stakes to it. Oregon State can score in bunches but the edge here might be in their favor simply because they can shoot threes and Arizona largely cannot. Of course, that can work against you, because Arizona is likely to have the smaller range of outcomes in both directions.
#65 Boise State at #35 Nevada (-6), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. Giant opportunity for Boise here to steal a signature win on the road, while Nevada looks to move to 22-1 over the last 1.5 seasons at home. This is very similar to the game above because Nevada generally eschews threes more than most teams but gives up a lot of three-point attempts on defense. If Boise’s hitting and Nevada isn’t outpacing them by, like, 10% from two…I mean, this could be very interesting very quickly.
THREE STARS
#33 Dayton (-4) at #103 Duquesne, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I’m sure it’s interesting for someone. I actually think this could be very interesting for Dayton: if they win, they’re almost certainly going to be 16-2/6-0 A10 heading into a date with Richmond on the 27th. They were the equivalent of 37th in the most recent AP Poll, but 16-2 with three Quad 1 wins and six Q1/Q2 wins should probably have you inside the top 20, no?
NCAAW: #53 California at #17 Colorado (-12.5), 9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Mostly here for Colorado, a pleasant surprise in every meaning of that phrase. They’re terrific at generating easy twos via dumpoff passes at the rim.
#52 Nebraska at #53 Iowa (-3), 9:30 PM ET, BTN. This is a must-win for both teams: Nebraska to stay on the good side of the bubble picture, Iowa to even be in the conversation for it. Even beyond that this should be very fun, because both teams can score in bunches and neither team can defend for very long. TeamRankings’ box score projection thing came back with a dead heat of 81-81, which is exactly what I want from my late night Friday Big Ten games. Overtime, please.
On Friday: the weekend watchlist.