Week 10 Weekend Watchlist: They Were Made of Dust, After All
The Mirage All-Stars, and other items
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
Hey there. Remember the first couple weeks of the season? Those halcyon days? Remember North Florida? The two weeks where people were convinced that Arizona State was going to make the Tournament with ease? These were times when we got a few things right - Auburn looking like the best team in the nation, for example - and a time when we really, really blew it on other items…such as Houston being bad because they lost a couple of games.
Now that we’re in mid-January, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at those first two weeks. Which teams are the most different now versus then? I’ve selected a few candidates that I think we were a bit hasty on in both directions.
Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish started out 4-0, beat Georgetown on the road, and looked every bit the part of a team making the Year Two Leap under Micah Shrewsberry. They’re 3-8 since, 1-3 in conference play, and are tracking to finish below .500 on the season.
Ohio State. You couldn’t throw a rock without hitting an Ohio State fan or a media member begging you to believe that the Jake Diebler hire was a good one and not just three-point regression working in his favor. Over the first 2.5 weeks, they shot 43% from three and allowed a 21% hit rate. This led to a 5-1 start and some super-impressive performances that got belief in the Buckeyes sky-high…which has since turned into a 5-5 run of play where 3PT regression has hit and Ohio State’s awful defense has come to light. Alas.
Villanova. The Wildcats were truly, purely left for dead after an atrocious first couple of weeks in which they lost to Columbia, Saint Joseph’s, and perhaps most embarrassingly, Virginia by double digits. Kyle Neptune was the most pre-fired man in America. They’re 8-2 since, have played like a top-25 team over their last 10 games, have a top-5 offense, and just beat UConn at home. Not bad for a season everyone gave up on after 14 days.
Michigan State. Boy, this is a fun one to revisit. Even Michigan State fans were begging for people to quit on Tom Izzo and this team because the first six games featured 3PT performances like 3-18, 3-24, 4-20, and 2-21. All performances that wouldn’t hold over the course of a season. Hopefully people have learned their lesson. MSU is 13-2, 4-0 in B1G play, and is tracking for a top-four seed.
North Florida. Sorry. I couldn’t resist. Do you remember when this team was getting several AP Top 25 votes?
Miami. This is the ultimate. Do you remember when they were 3-0 with three blowout wins and were the favorite in their preseason tournament in Charleston?
Will we learn anything from this? Of course not. College basketball enjoys eating its own as a secondary sport; we’ll call everyone overrated and underrated by December 15 every season. The suggestions and cries of “let the season play out” may eventually be heard sometime around 2057.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 11
A GAMES
#4 Iowa State (-1) at #18 Texas Tech, 2 PM ET, ESPN. This is the good stuff. Iowa State has looked fantastic and very 1-seed like for most of the season, but away from home, their defense has been suspiciously un-ISU like. In five games away from home, they’ve allowed opponents to shoot 55% from two, block very few shots, and aren’t nearly as dominant in the turnover department as they are at home. This is also a huge spot for a Texas Tech team that could really use a signature win, particularly with JT Toppin back.
#9 Kansas (-2) at #33 Cincinnati, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. I’ve had this one circled for a bit as the Cincinnati Needs A Signature Win Game, as well as another one in the Kansas Gets Court-Rushed Game series that seems to be pretty popular this year. The problem here is that Cincinnati’s offense has been awful against the Quad 1 and 2 teams they’ve played, and while I enjoy relatively little about the Kansas viewing experience, their defense is the one standout piece. If Cincinnati is to win this game, 65 points feels like the absolute wall they cannot let KU get past.
#7 Alabama at #15 Texas A&M (-1), 8 PM ET, ESPN. Great shot volume battle to the death. Texas A&M may be the most dominant team in the nation at the moment in terms of generating second chances for themselves, both in terms of pure dominance on the offensive boards (they’re #1) and in terms of getting to the foul line (#28). Of course, Alabama is extremely good at both as well. This is a fun battle of who blinks first: Alabama’s pretty pedestrian defense or Texas A&M’s chaotic offense.
#65 UC Irvine at #60 UC San Diego (-3), 10 PM ET, ESPNU/ESPN+. This is the goods. You’re darn right we’re elevating this to A Game status. Both UCI and UCSD would be 12 seeds with an outside chance at an 11 if they win the Big West. UCI’s defense is the best any mid-major has anywhere, while UCSD is more balanced on offense and has terrific shot selection. I truly cannot tell you how this one will go, which is why I’m so excited to see it.
B GAMES
#37 Louisville at #27 Pittsburgh (-5), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. Someone is legally required to win 15 or so games in conference play in the ACC and be a lock for the NCAA Tournament despite the conference sucking. Why not Pitt? They’re actually pretty good, very fun to watch, and have beaten a few good teams. I’d be fine with it. 24-7, 15-5 Pitt is probably getting a 5 seed.
NCAAW: #32 Creighton (-4.5) at #56 Seton Hall, 12 PM ET, “Big East Digital Network”. I don’t know what this is, exactly, but I’m sure it will get the job done. This is a battle between the second and third-best teams in the Big East behind the overwhelming power that is UConn, and it should be pretty fun. Seton Hall could really use it for Tournament purposes.
#31 San Diego State (-1) at #65 New Mexico, 1 PM ET, CBS. This was listed as TBA until I checked right before I hit publish, but it’s nice to see this getting a national broadcast. If you haven’t seen Miles Byrd play for San Diego State yet, you’re missing out; he’s a show of his own. But New Mexico still has the fabulous Donovan Dent and a potential mismatch in one Filip Borovicanin. Defense isn’t his strong suit, but he’s a 6’9” PF shooting 42% from three and has been ruthless on the offensive end when he’s gotten real time to play.
NCAAW: #50 Harvard at #40 Princeton (-4.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a banger. The two best teams in the Ivy, and two teams that really should be in the NCAA Tournament field in two months, get to tangle.
#26 UConn (-4) at #62 Georgetown, 2 PM ET, FOX. Remember the simple 2PT delta - 3PT delta equation I ran earlier in the week to imply St. John’s was due for better results? Well, this is #1 in that equation playing at #2. If it all happens at once this could be an offensive explosion.
NCAAW: #10 West Virginia (-6.5) at #36 Oklahoma State, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. This is #1 in defensive TO% playing at #32 in offensive TO%. It’s also an Oklahoma State team with the third-largest eFG% gap in the nation at +19.3%! We’ll see what holds and what doesn’t.
#50 Vanderbilt at #41 Missouri (-5), 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. I can’t remember if I did this but when I was doing season previews, a thought came to me mid-run: make sure you put in the predictions section for the SEC that #1 and #16 have a gap of no more than 10 games in W-L. As in, #1 Auburn finishes 15-3 but #16 Whoever finishes 5-13. This is a primary game for this theory: someone has to win. (Hopefully the team with Mark Byington as its coach.)
NCAAW: #78 Montana State at #90 Northern Arizona (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Big Sky title game preview. These are two potential 13/14 seeds that could give a 3/4 seed serious problems in the Round of 64, particularly Montana State, who carries an immense +9.5 per 100 turnover margin.
#5 Florida (-6) at #48 Arkansas, 4 PM ET, ESPN. Arkansas is going to win this game. Why? I’ve had a theory with John Calipari for the last few years: whenever his back is against the wall and people are really starting to get mad at him, he pulls one out of nowhere to calm the waters. Last year’s wins at Auburn and Tennessee qualify; 2023’s sweep of Tennessee qualifies; 2022’s blowout of North Carolina qualifies. Every year, he finds one.
#99 Arkansas State at #116 Troy (-2), 4:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Real hoop. REAL HOOP. This is, again, a hopeful Sun Belt title game preview between two teams that can absolutely win a Tournament game. If you don’t know it yet, you better know the name Tayton Conerway; he is the head of the Troy snake.
Chargers at Texans, 4:30 PM ET, CBS. Everyone hates me for this but I’m a Jim Superfan and will follow him anywhere he goes. This is not going to be a pretty game whatsoever, but I do think Herbert vs. Stroud is a good young QB battle that could be reasonably telling in one direction or the other. (Chargers 23, Texans 17)
#6 Tennessee (-5) at #38 Texas, 6 PM ET, ESPN. Tennessee completely and totally flooded their pants on Tuesday, but this represents the chance to save the week. If you can go 1-1 in a week and get a Quad 1 road win, that’s a solid week.
#40 Oklahoma at #39 Georgia (-3), 6 PM ET, ESPN2. This doesn’t appeal to me personally, but it will appeal to a lot of people because it’s two top-40 teams that can very well make the NCAA Tournament. At least one of them is going 7-11 in conference, because, well, look at their competition.
#42 Villanova at #20 St. John’s (-7), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. St. John’s defensive strength is on the perimeter, which is fine and dandy, but it does give me potential fear in a game where the best offensive player by a mile is Villanova’s Eric Dixon, who can score anywhere from 0-25 feet and is a beast down low. My theory is that St. John’s wins this 81-71 while Dixon scores 29 points but no other Villanova player touches 15.
#68 San Francisco at #75 Santa Clara (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. On one of the greatest Saturdays in recent memory, this getting relegated to pure afterthought status is a bit of a shame. With a hot WCC run, either of these teams could be in your future NCAA Tournament, and both play enticing styles of ball. Alas.
#66 Liberty (-2) at #130 Louisiana Tech, 8 PM ET, ESPNU. The ideal Liberty path here is to win a 65-59 style game where it’s slow as molasses and the possession total maybe touches 60. The ideal Louisiana Tech path is much speedier and involves forcing Liberty to keep up in a game played in the 70s or above.
#22 Kentucky at #17 Mississippi State (-4), 8:30 PM ET, SECN. Very excited for this one. Kentucky is getting Are They Top Five? buzz from some outlets, which looks hilarious after a road loss to Georgia. Lest we forget, this is the same team that got demolished on a neutral court by an Ohio State team that might make the Tournament. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is better on the boards and the turnover department while possessing a level of interior scoring Kentucky might not have at this stage.
#57 Boise State at #43 Utah State (-7), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Here is how amazing this day of hoops is: this game, between two top-60 teams at a great venue, is KenPom’s 20th-ranked game of the day.
#19 Baylor (-3) at #58 Arizona State, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I don’t like or respect the way that Arizona State plays basketball, which is common knowledge by now, but this is an intriguing matchup that could swing their way. Baylor gives up a lot of catch-and-shoot threes; catch-and-shoot threes are about the only thing ASU’s offense does well this year.
C GAMES
#47 Creighton (-2) at #83 Butler, 12 PM ET, FOX. To some extent, all Creighton games are decided by if Creighton hit threes that game or not, but more so, all Creighton games are decided by if Creighton made their twos. They’re 8-2 this year when hitting more than 50% of them and were 21-2 last year when north of 55%.
#78 USC at #8 Illinois (-16), 12 PM ET, BTN. This is perhaps the best test of the West-to-Midwest travel theory yet, entirely based on start time. B1G teams traveling 2+ time zones so far are 4-4, which is not bad at all and is right in line with pregame expectations…though simultaneously, most B1G teams are better than USC.
#86 Notre Dame at #2 Duke (-21), 12 PM ET, ESPN. Road Dog Shrews is a real thing; in his career he’s 14-10 ATS as a dog of 5+ points. He’ll have to work some magic here, because this is a putrid interior defense for ND taking on an elite rim offense for Duke.
NCAAW: #94 Oral Roberts at #100 North Dakota State (-2), 1 PM ET, Midco Sports Plus. #2 and #3 in the Summit race. ORU has a bench guard named Jalei Oglesby who absolutely rocks.
#1 Auburn (-15) at #77 South Carolina, 1 PM ET, SEC Network. Auburn is showing some occasional signs of vulnerability, which is exciting, but unless Lamont Paris can ugly up this game in a new/surprising way it feels like it’s what it says it is.
NCAAW: #55 Ball State (-3.5) at #101 Buffalo, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Two potential NCAA Tournament teams.
#61 Florida State at #35 Clemson (-8), 2 PM ET, ACC Network. One potential NCAA Tournament team and one team that’s gonna be coach hunting in a couple months.
#44 BYU at #72 TCU (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN. If TCU’s gonna get off the mat they’ve gotta find something, anything offensively. They’re 178th with all priors removed, per Torvik, and that somehow feels like it’s underrating the issue. It’s ruining what’s been an excellent defense.
NCAAW: #49 Villanova (-0.5) at #71 Marquette, 3 PM ET, FloSports. Villanova consistently rates out quite well metrics-wise but needs to start winning some games to back it up. 8-8 won’t cut it when you’re Tournament quality.
NCAAW: #44 Iowa State (-0.5) at #60 Arizona, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Speaking of a team that needs to win some dadgummed games: Iowa State is 11-6, 2-2 B12, and would not be in the NCAA Tournament field based on their current resume if we got things rolling today. That’s a preseason top 10 team!
NCAAW: #99 Stephen F. Austin at #86 Lamar (-4.5), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Wonderful thing about Southland WBB: this is a top-100 at top-100 game. If you’re a men’s hoops fan, you’d watch Northern Iowa at Bradley, right? This is roughly that.
#30 UNC (-5) at #90 NC State, 4 PM ET, ACC Network. UNC is officially off the mat and is rounding into form a bit offensively, and this feels like a timely matchup for them. The one thing Hubert’s kept from Roy is a team that wins when it rebounds well, and whenever UNC tops a 29% OREB% during his tenure they’re 54-11 (34-26 otherwise). Pretty useful info when playing an NCSU side that allows 33% on average.
NCAAW: #5 Kansas State (-21) at #70 BYU, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. BYU has some chaos potential this Big 12 season. They don’t get to the free throw line ever, but they take a ton of threes, allow a lot of threes, and play a style of ball that’s conducive to potential upsets and/or blowouts.
#3 Houston (-12) at #91 Kansas State, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. I ask politely: will there be a single game this calendar year with a greater diversity in terms of teammates’ attitudes towards each other?
#127 UNC Greensboro at #105 Samford (-4), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. #3 at #1 in the SoCon race, per the ratings. The number here is 35%: UNCG is 42-11 when opponents shoot below that from three under Mike Jones and 17-33 when they don’t.
#69 LSU at #23 Ole Miss (-9), 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Schedule and context of game is always at the back of one’s mind, but over the last five games, LSU is #1 IN THE NATION in both FG% (52.1%) and 2PT% (64%). I truly had no clue. They’re getting 48% of their shots over the last five at the rim.
NCAAW: #12 TCU (-13) at #73 Texas Tech, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. TCU’s Sedona Prince is putting together an all-timer of a season based on the boxscores alone: 18.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, and 3.6 BPG. The last two people to go 17+ PPG/9+ RPG/2+ APG/3+ BPG were Cameron Brink and Brittney Griner.
#49 Indiana at #51 Iowa (-4), 8 PM ET, FOX. Inasmuch as I can keep up with it Indiana fans seem back in on the Hoosiers, which means it’s prime time for an 81-73 road loss because Iowa makes five more threes.
Steelers at Ravens, 8 PM ET, Prime Video. Honestly the only reason to watch this is Lamar, who rocks and is awesome and is the obvious MVP in a better world. I have never loved a non-Lion more. (Ravens 34, Steelers 14)
#84 Washington State at #10 Gonzaga (-16), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. The lone bonus of conference realignment: this game would not have happened last year. It hasn’t since 2015!
#76 UCF at #13 Arizona (-14), 10 PM ET, ESPN. Then again, I’m not sure I needed this. It sounds like a Liberty Bowl.
HALFTIME!
Walter Becker of Steely Dan plays bass on this one. I can never do the Rickie Lee thing for a full album but song-for-song I love her sound.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 12
A GAMES
NCAAW: #1 Texas at #4 South Carolina (-2.5), 1 PM ET, ESPN. By leaving Alabama (though without Alabama’s best player) in a smoldering heap last night, Texas has leapt up to #1 in the metrics. I don’t think South Carolina cares about those at all, but this is shaping up to be an absolute battle of the titans that will likely decide who wins the SEC. This is a must-watch by every meaning of that term and may come in as WBB’s Game of the Year ratings-wise.
Packers at Eagles, 4:30 PM ET, FOX. This gets dropped to a B Game if Jalen Hurts can’t go, but it seems like he will. I guess at this point I’m in “prove it” territory with the Pack; you guys continue to claim that you’re the Super Bowl sleeper but have shat the bed against every single good team you’ve played. Meanwhile the Eagles have the best individual offensive player in the game and the better defense. The lone thing lurking here is Packers Devil Magic, which regrettably is pretty real. (Eagles 27, Packers 17)
NCAAW: #22 Florida State at #28 California (-1), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. This is my personal favorite basketball game of the day. FSU has the single best scorer in women’s basketball right now in Ta’Niya Latson, a tremendous and tough player that can truly light it up from anywhere. Cal has a trio of awesome guards - Kayla Williams, Lulu Twidale, and Ioanna Krimili - that can do the same, just spread out a bit. This will be played fast, as is both teams’ desire, and will feature a lot of offense and some questionable defense.
Washington Football Team at Buccaneers, 8 PM ET, NBC. I am surprised more people don’t have this as the top game of the day. Neither defense can stop a soul. Both quarterbacks have been fantastic for basically four months straight. It’s the best-produced broadcast money can buy, announcers included. This is going to be a significantly more fun game than Eagles/Packers, even if both teams are superior to the teams involved here. (WFT 31, TB 30)
B GAMES
#14 Michigan State (-3) at #53 Northwestern, 12 PM ET, FOX. We’re beginning to enter Must-Win Bubble Team Territory, which is always a fun way to look at games. This team is more motivated, therefore they’ll win. Do you guys ever think about why the team so badly needs that win in the first place? They’re probably not very good. Northwestern is a truly nasty watch offensively.
#34 Nebraska at #16 Purdue (-7), 12 PM ET, BTN. This intrigues me because of Nebraska’s take-all-threes philosophy…on defense. Husker opponents are taking over half of their field goals from deep with the main goal being to prevent attempts at the rim. Purdue’s obviously happy to take threes, but this is a fun way to introduce a ton of variance to the average game.
NCAAW: #25 Oregon at #9 Ohio State (-8.5), 1 PM ET, BTN+. OSU is still undefeated and still smoking opponents in the turnover department, where they’re an amazing +16.5 per 100 possessions. Considering Oregon point guard Elisa Mevius has had serious turnover issues this year…well, you might see where this is going.
NCAAW: #43 Washington at #26 Michigan State (-9.5), 2 PM ET, BTN+. Great run for Washington lately to get themselves into more serious Tournament talk, with a road win over Illinois and a 3-1 start to conference play. Can they score consistently here against a top-tier interior defense?
NCAAW: #21 NC State (-3.5) at #38 Stanford, 3 PM ET, ESPN. Stanford’s obviously taking a step back this year due to the post-Tara era, but one thing they do extremely well is hit threes. At 39.2%, they’re #5 in the nation. That could be important against an NCSU team who’s structurally built on D to allow a lot of jumpers.
NCAAW: #39 Indiana at #29 Iowa (-6.5), 3 PM ET, Peacock. Heavily-lessened version of the games these two have played the last couple of years, but still worth watching.
#25 Oregon (-1) at #52 Penn State, 4 PM ET, BTN. After a tremendous start Penn State’s suddenly flagging a bit and has had four of their five worst performances of the year back-to-back. Why? Well, stop me if you’ve heard this one before: they’ve shot 19.7% from three (13-66) in the last four games, including 3-21 against Indiana in a six-point loss. They’re probably gonna regress to the mean soon.
NCAAW: #20 Alabama at #16 Ole Miss (-3), 4 PM ET, SECN+. Without Sarah Ashlee Barker Alabama is in serious shoulder-shrug territory; they simply aren’t as potent or as interesting without her. They claim she’s day-to-day.
NCAAW: #14 Georgia Tech (-8) at #42 Louisville, 4 PM ET, ACC Network. Georgia Tech finally lost a game for the first time all year…in double overtime to Virginia Tech after VT shot 45% from three. I think they’re gonna be just fine.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #6 Notre Dame (-20.5) at #61 Clemson, 12 PM ET, The CW. Clemson isn’t bad but their defense languishes well below the standard to actually beat Notre Dame.
Broncos at Bills, 1 PM ET, CBS. I don’t find the Broncos entertaining to watch at all, sorry. Happy that they’re good! The defense is excellent. But I’ve got better things to do in life than watch Bo Nix throw another 2-yard out to Courtland Sutton. (Bills 31, Broncos 15)
NCAAW: #111 Purdue Fort Wayne at #109 Cleveland State (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is for the Horizon League crown, in all likelihood. Lauren Ross for PFW is having the season of a lifetime: 48% from three, 94% from the line, four games of 25+ points so far.
#92 Washington at #11 Michigan (-16), 2 PM ET, BTN. In the world where Ryan Day had lost to Tennessee and gotten canned, did Ohio State fans really want the guy who picked Jake Diebler over Dusty May to select a football coach?
#46 West Virginia (-1) at #79 Colorado, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the best test of Altitude Theory we have this weekend. Morgantown has a tremendous home court advantage, but Boulder is almost a mile higher above sea level. WVU’s played just two road games all year. It’s worth keeping an eye on.
NCAAW: #54 Auburn at #18 Kentucky (-12), 3 PM ET, SEC Network. Hand up: the preseason metrics were wrong. Kentucky is really, really good and a legitimate top-15 team.
NCAAW: #37 Richmond (-6.5) at #96 Davidson, 3 PM ET, ESPNU. Richmond played one of the best games of the year against George Mason earlier this week, winning 88-86. I love watching them play basketball, simple as that.
NCAAW: #79 Texas A&M at #13 Oklahoma (-20.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN2. Oklahoma is a machine, but thanks to the grind of the SEC schedule, they’re already 1-2 in league play. Gotta take care of business here to keep pace.