Week 11 Watchlist: All Eyes on the Violets
Emerging from the snow to deliver your TV guide
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
No essay today; I have a couple of actual feature-style things going out this week (Wednesday and maybe Thursday?) and the Watchlist is already long enough as it is. This edition is about 4,000 words and covers 68 different games. No A+ Game of the Week as that’s reserved for an affair on Saturday.
I do have one product recommendation, one of maybe 3-5 in the history of this newsletter: Yaktrax.
These things are INCREDIBLE. I went for an 11-mile run on fresh snow and some ice on Saturday and didn’t slip once. One of the greatest inventions we have produced as a people in 50 years.
MONDAY, JANUARY 13
A GAME
Vikings ‘at’ Rams, 8 PM ET, ESPN. This is a very unique situation due to the California wildfires; as always, I send prayers and well-wishes to any reader affected. This game will be played in Arizona, not California. As for the actual game: man, I think Sam Darnold finally turned back into a pumpkin. Part of that was the Lions playing a tremendous defensive game but he missed some astonishingly open throws against them. We’ll see. (Rams 24, Vikings 19)
B GAMES
NCAAW: #27 Vanderbilt at #15 LSU (-8.5), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Vanderbilt’s unfortunately giving off some paper tiger vibes; they’re 14-0 against everyone outside of the top 50 and 0-3 against the three Tournament-level teams they’ve played with a scoring margin of -54. Their huge rebounding advantage evaporates against better opponents. Unless they can round into better form defensively this might just be who they are.
C GAMES
#31 UCLA (-3) at #91 Rutgers, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. I think Mick Cronin’s mind is very much elsewhere right now, which Matt Norlander eloquently summed up in an excellent CBS article on Saturday. If Rutgers can’t win this one…
#145 Wofford at #112 Furman (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Moved from Saturday due to Snowmageddon 2025. Did you know Furman is 14-2 and relies on threes more than all but 12 teams in America?
#246 Bethune Cookman at #223 Southern (-4), 7:30 PM ET, not televised. The two best teams in the SWAC can’t get ESPN+? This is instead available for purchase on the Jaguar Sports Network. ESPNU, which is supposedly a network for live college sports, is showing the following.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 14
A GAMES
NCAAW: #19 Minnesota at #20 Maryland (-2.5), 7 PM ET, BTN. 16-1 at 15-1, and what kind of fool could say no to such a thing? There’s far worse ways to spend an hour of your life than spending it watching Tori McKinney (star freshman for Minnesota currently posting 53% 2PT/37% 3PT shooting splits and a 136! ORtg) tangle with Kaylene Smikle and Shyanne Sellers. Against top 150 competition Minnesota’s had the very best offensive TO% in America, and winning the turnover battle by +5 or more is basically a requirement to win this one.
#17 Texas A&M at #21 Kentucky (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. We’re starting to close in somewhat on Kentucky being the Ball Watcher/Ball Knower Anger Team of January. (Oklahoma was this for December.) The ‘Kats sit 21st at KenPom but will probably come in around 11th or 12th in the AP sight unseen. Why? Well, the 11th-best team in America would expect to have a scoring margin of +12.4 against Kentucky’s schedule. UK sits at +10.3. That’s not a huge difference, but it’s the explanation for why a human poll and an algorithm will feel differently.
#18 Baylor at #15 Arizona (-4), 11 PM ET, ESPN. Hey, remember when Arizona was in danger of missing the Tournament entirely? When their season was over because of bad shooting variance despite spectacular shot volume numbers? Pepperidge Farm certainly remembers. I gave them a call yesterday and they’re saying you should’ve bought low when you had the chance.
B GAMES
#12 Illinois (-4) at #56 Indiana, 7 PM ET, Peacock. Two teams with very diverse capital-P Problems that feel like death knells at different parts of the season. Illinois is -4.2 in turnovers per 100 possessions against top-150 comp in 10 games. Indiana, meanwhile, is allowing 57% on twos (and a horrendous 61% at the rim) to these teams on their schedule.
#24 Ole Miss at #8 Alabama (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. On the other side, no real concerns with Alabama. They look like one of the 5-10 best teams in America, though not one of the three best. Mild concern with Ole Miss, though. I did not know this was the case, but Chris Beard is 6-12 ATS as a road dog of 5+ points in his 8.5 season high-major career.
#20 Mississippi State at #1 Auburn (-13), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Given that Johni Broome is out for this game and is unlikely to be back for at least two weeks, this is likely a bit of an inflated line. EvanMiya has this more like Auburn -6.5, which seems a bit more reasonable and is a testament to how good Johni Broome is. Keep an eye on this one.
#63 Georgetown at #19 St. John’s (-11), 7:30 PM ET, Peacock. Pretty simple question: can Georgetown score inside early and often against a terrific St. John’s defense? If not, this one might be over fast. G’town is 18-6 under Cooley when shooting 48% or better from two and 3-21 otherwise.
NCAAW: #29 Utah at #28 Baylor (-3), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Fascinating game between two defenses that are terrific at denying shot volume (Utah 15th DREB%, Baylor 2nd versus Quads 1-3) but with completely different ways of going about it on offense. Utah is mostly guard-driven; Baylor has to pound the paint to get buckets.
#32 Ohio State at #23 Wisconsin (-6), 9 PM ET, Peacock. Wisconsin either has the greatest, most disciplined free throw shooting team in world history or they’re due for some major regression. 85.1%, their current hit rate, would beat 2021-22 Villanova by over 2%. Considering they’re 85th in 3PT%/51st 2PT%, I doubt it’ll hold.
#79 Colorado State at #36 San Diego State (-9), 11 PM ET, CBSSN. The power of home court in the Mountain West, mostly for members of the Big Six in the league, is undeniable. Post-COVID, in MWC games involving two top-100 teams, the home team is 54-28 (66%). San Diego State is 12-4!
C GAMES
#44 Villanova at #53 Xavier (-2), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Here is a thing to watch: against the seven teams they’ve played outside of the KenPom top 150, Xavier is posting a 61% eFG% on average. Against the top-150: 48.5%. Movable force (Villanova’s atrocious defense) versus a stoppable object.
#116 Saint Louis at #45 VCU (-11), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Do you like threes? Like, really like threes? Here’s your game. These two teams both average getting at least 48% of their attempts from deep.
NCAAW: #80 Texas Tech at #42 Iowa State (-9.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Danger zone for Texas Tech; a 12-2 start is now 12-6 with four straight blowouts.
#84 Providence at #46 Creighton (-8), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Providence, out of nowhere, might actually have something offensively? TBD, but they’re playing like a top-40 unit over the last ten games, which coincides pretty well with them beginning to give Ryan Mela serious minutes.
#49 Arkansas at #71 LSU (-1), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. This is the runner-up Anxiety Game of the Week, because the anxiety is entirely on Arkansas’s side. Lose this and things are going to get uglier than John Calipari could ever imagine.
#16 Texas Tech (-8) at #98 Kansas State, 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Friend of the Substack Cameron made a great suggestion: why doesn’t CBS build out their own College GameDay challenger? The ESPN one has not felt essential for years. Why not a CBS version with the Eye on CBB crew (Parrish/Norlander), Jon Rothstein (look, he’d eat it up and be enthusiastic), and Adam Zucker? The analysis would certainly be less dry. Food for thought.
#40 Missouri at #5 Florida (-13), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Florida’s beaten their preseason KenPom rating by more than anyone else in the sport at +11.75 points above expectation. I’m working on a theory that this is probably their peak value because an extra leap is unlikely, but it needs to be fleshed out.
#39 Iowa (-1) at #68 USC, 10:30 PM ET, FS1. Rebounding margin per 100 against top-150 competition: Iowa -11.4, USC -8.5. Who sucks less at it will decide the game.
#75 UCF at #60 Arizona State (-5), 11 PM ET, ESPNU. Boy, they are certainly playing this basketball game. They are going to play 40 minutes of it. Good cardio.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 15
A GAME
#7 Kansas at #4 Iowa State (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. We’re at the point where you either believe in what Iowa State’s doing or you’re committed against them. The amazing aspect to me, still, is that their offense is ahead of their defense. The other amazing aspect is that this is one of two teams in America (Duke) with a top-10 offense and defense at the time of writing. The Otz/Self matchup has more or less gone as expected so far, with Kansas winning four of six, but the under has hit in five of the six games. It would actually benefit the Jayhawks if they make it six of seven, because otherwise, a Kansas defense that has experienced some pretty serious luck on jumpers would be in trouble.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #44 Washington at #17 Michigan (-12), 7 PM ET, BTN+. This is closer than it appears. Washington has been excellent against the best competition on its schedule and has played like a top-25 side of late. But: can anyone on Washington stuff the Olson/Swords combo?
#87 George Mason at #54 Dayton (-7), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Buy in on George Mason while you have time. They’re holding opponents to the third-lowest 2PT%, are dominant on the boards, and are basically a turnover problem short of being the A10 favorite. Best GMU team since 2011.
#50 Penn State at #14 Michigan State (-10), 7:30 PM ET, BTN. On the most recent Eye on College Basketball podcast Gary Parrish noted his fears with Michigan State’s low 3PT%. 1) This is still weighted by a truly horrendous start; 2) over the last 10 games, MSU is shooting 35% from three. They’re scary.
D2: #18 Florida Southern at #2 Nova Southeastern (-15.5), 7:30 PM ET, streaming. If you haven’t read CJ Moore’s fantastic article on Nova Southeastern HC Jim Crutchfield, do that now, then watch them play on Wednesday.
#35 Georgia at #6 Tennessee (-11), 8 PM ET, SEC Network. In the Texas win on Saturday, Tennessee took 86% of all shots either at the rim or from three. Texas: 66%. Does Tennessee win that game in 2021? Probably not. Also, they’ve just got a lot of answers: top-25 offense, second-highest 2PT% in school history, 7th in OREB%, 18th-lowest FT Rate allowed. The Florida loss was horrendous but is also just one game; they have roughly ~51% odds to get to the Auburn game on January 25 at 18-1.
#42 West Virginia at #3 Houston (-14), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Houston’s points allowed since that San Diego State loss on November 30: 51, 42, 49, 51, 47, 55, 46, 57, with five of those against top-100 teams.
#27 Pitt (-3) at #66 Florida State, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Post-COVID, Pitt is 3-1 against Leonard Hamilton and crew, but perhaps more notable is how poorly FSU fares against good offenses. They haven’t defeated a top-25 offense since November 21 of last season, losing seven straight and allowing 80.3 PPG.
#37 Texas at #44 Oklahoma (-3), 10 PM ET, SEC Network. This is the Anxiety Game of the Week by a mile for me. Texas is 0-3 in the SEC and is in Actual Real Trouble with regards to seeing the NCAA Tournament, functionally needing to go 8-7 the rest of the way to possess a “we’re in” feeling. Oklahoma is obviously in less dire straits, but they’re also 0-3 in SEC play and are doing nothing to dispel the pretty obvious truths that they ran red hot from three in important games and are running on fumes. Their resume is such that if they go 6-12 in SEC play they’d probably still make the First Four, but a loss here means you’ve only got four more games you’re favored in.
C GAMES
#72 South Carolina at #52 Vanderbilt (-6), 6 PM ET, SEC Network. I have a LOT of Forecaster Cred built into Vanderbilt winning this game and continuing on their way to a Tournament bid.
NCAAW: #4 UConn (-19.5) at #65 St. John’s, 7 PM ET, SNY. FYI, a UConn fan let me know that these are generally available for watch on the FOX Sports app. I’ll test that out.
NCAAW: #56 Colorado at #11 West Virginia (-16.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Do you like turnovers? Watch this one; it’s the #262 TO% offense (versus top-150 comp) against the #4 TO% defense.
#140 ETSU at #113 Furman (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. As of now this hasn’t been moved. Yet. This is a great series because while Furman’s won seven of the last ten it always has real heat. Eight of the ten have been decided by single digits, three by four or less.
NCAAW: #59 Seton Hall at #66 Marquette (-1), 9 PM ET, FS1. Someone is required to finish third in the Big East behind UConn and Creighton. The winner here has the leg up and would keep SHU on pace for a Tournament bid.
#38 Cincinnati (-2) at #86 Colorado, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Cincinnati either wins this game and stops the bleeding or enters a weekend game against Arizona State 0-5 in conference play.
#146 Illinois State at #73 Drake (-9), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Illinois State’s path to an upset here is simply hitting a bunch of threes, a thing they’ve been oddly good at. They’re 10-3 when hitting 40% or more of their deep balls and 0-4 otherwise.
NCAAW: #67 Penn State at #2 UCLA (-28), 9:30 PM ET, Peacock. Likely a nuking, but Penn State is a rare team that can hang size-wise down low with Lauren Betts thanks to the excellent Gracie Merkle.
#12 Purdue (-9) at #93 Washington, 9:30 PM ET, BTN. Washington is the worst team in the Big Ten this year, but this is Purdue’s first West Coast road game. Great Osobor could be a problem for Purdue’s very middling interior protection. Maybe.
#43 Utah State (-5) at #105 UNLV, 11 PM ET, CBSSN. USU has won five in a row against UNLV and UNLV’s been so bad against quality competition that -5 may be charitable.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 16
A GAMES
NCAAW: #15 Georgia Tech at #6 Notre Dame (-13.5), 6 PM ET, ACC Network. Notre Dame has taken a stranglehold of the ACC race, but second place is wide open. All of Duke, NC State, Cal, UNC, and Georgia Tech are projected at 13-5 or 14-4. For Tech to get more involved in the race their defense has to improve; it’s 79th-best nationally in their 10 games against Q1-Q3 comp.
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-11.5) at #18 Alabama, 7 PM ET, SECN+. South Carolina put up one of the most absurd performances in basketball history on Sunday against a top five Texas team. They gave up 20 offensive rebounds, lost the turnover battle by 10, and managed just 67 points. Stathead’s database for WBB goes back to 2002-03; teams that met these numbers (20+ OREBs allowed, TO loss of 10+, <70 points) went 38-818 (4.4% win percentage). South Carolina won by 17 points, the largest margin of victory for anyone on that list. I don’t know whether that makes them a buy, sell, or both.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #34 Mississippi State at #21 Tennessee (-8), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Tennessee is a very good basketball team that’s a crucial bit away from being a great one. They came oh-so-close to stealing one or both of the Oklahoma/LSU home games but ultimately got neither. I still think they’re pretty dangerous.
NCAAW: #36 Illinois at #38 Indiana (-1.5), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Indiana is 4-1 in conference play to Illinois’ 2-3, but Illinois has played a far harder slate of opponents. My main question: can any Hoosier slow down the fantastic Kendall Bostic?
NCAAW: #35 Nebraska at #32 Iowa (-3.5), 7 PM ET, BTN. Iowa has played far more quality opponents than Nebraska has and has the better record, but it’s pretty clear that they just don’t have it offensively at the moment. This could be a first-to-60 game.
NCAAW: #43 Belmont (-4) at #82 Drake, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Against top-150 teams, Belmont’s defense ranks 28th-best nationally. Drake: 157th. Why? Drake forces the 9th-fewest turnovers against Quad 1-3 competition in all of WBB.
NCAAW: #25 California at #13 Duke (-7), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. This is another huge game in the race for second in the ACC. Duke offers a clear edge in shot volume, with the 8th-best OREB% in the sport and an elite shot attempt suppression defense. Cal, meanwhile, is a terrific shooting team that often doesn’t need the second attempt. Should be very fun.
#22 Maryland (-3) at #75 Northwestern, 9 PM ET, BTN. I think we’re underrating this Maryland team a bit based on previous Kevin Willard experiences. On the flip side I’m not sure the metrics have fully caught up to how bad the Northwestern offense has been against quality competition. If Martinelli and Barnhizer aren’t going nuts there’s basically no positives.
#9 Gonzaga (-7) at #65 Oregon State, 11 PM ET, CBSSN. As usual Gonzaga has an elite two-point offense, but this is a rare time in WCC play they’ll have quality competition on an interior defense. Oregon State’s allowed just a 53.7% hit rate at the rim and has played well on both ends this whole season.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #3 Texas (-20) at #57 Auburn, 7 PM ET, SECN+. These are two of the four lowest three-point attempt rates in the entire sport. Pretty good way for Auburn to kill any hope of an upset before the game starts.
NCAAW: #79 Murray State at #78 Northern Iowa (-3.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This may only end up being for second or third in the MVC, but these are two quality teams. Murray State really wants this one, as they’re 0-4 against UNI since joining the MVC.
#33 Memphis (-7) at #120 Temple, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. It’s going to happen eventually. It always does.
#10 Michigan (-12) at #114 Minnesota, 7 PM ET, FS1.
#98 High Point (-4) at #197 Longwood, 7 PM ET, ESPNU. High Point needs to create some separation in the Big South race, but they really want this after Longwood beat them twice last year and ended their season early.
#189 Merrimack at #209 Quinnipiac (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. MAAC championship preview.
NCAAW: #70 Arizona at #5 Kansas State (-26), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Kansas State since Ayoka Lee fully re-entered the lineup mostly injury-free on December 14: 7-0, top-15 offense and defense, with a scoring margin of +177. Against the five top-100 opponents: +114.
NCAAW: #72 Portland (-2) at #118 Gonzaga, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. The WCC is wide-open and anyone could take it, but this feels like the championship preview.
#90 Rutgers at #41 Nebraska (-10), 9 PM ET, FS1. Even without the Rutgers Stinks Factor hanging heavy here, it feels like Hoiberg has begun to solve Pikiell’s style; he’s won two of three after losing four of five.
#164 UTEP at #69 Liberty (-10), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. As fun as it would be, UTEP’s style is perhaps the worst-built to tangle with Liberty, generally speaking. Their offensive efficiency has almost no correlation whatsoever to turnovers, but it’s heavily correlated to OREBs…which UTEP bleeds at will.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 17
A GAMES
D3: #5 Emory University at #1 New York University (-5), 5:30 PM ET, streaming. The Basketball Capital of the World (citation needed) has the biggest game of Friday. Now you know about it. NYU has the best offense in D3 this year, centered around star forward Tristan How (16 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 61% 2PT, 41% 3PT). Emory’s excellence is on the defensive end, where they have one of the best two-way players in D3 in Jair Knight (20 PPG, 2 SPG, 1.7 BPG). This is a tremendous game and I hope the reach this newsletter possesses increases the viewership and/or attendance even a little.
#57 Boise State at #58 New Mexico (-4), 11 PM ET, FS1. I do wish to do a Mountain West tour here in the near future. So many great buildings. This is simply a great matchup of two hard-nosed coaches that don’t love to win pretty. Leon is 4-2 against Richard and has had great success against the Pitino defense, but Boise’s defensive struggles in P&R lend themselves poorly to a New Mexico offense that’s been at its best when spamming ball screens this year. This will be a blast.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #30 Utah at #10 TCU (-9.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Quietly, this one projects to be even on the boards and to produce a turnover margin in Utah’s favor. That means TCU’s gotta get going inside early and often with Sedona Prince against a Utah defense without a great rim protector. This also means Utah is likely to have the math and deep-shooting advantage in a reasonably close game.
#56 Indiana at #32 Ohio State (-6), 8 PM ET, FOX.
Anyway! I think both these teams stink. Against top-150 competition, Ohio State rates out as the 66th-best team in America. Indiana: 67th. Indiana does project to have a real advantage on the boards, but is so bad defensively that I kinda think Bruce Thornton and/or Devin Royal could have a historic night. We’ll see.
#40 Iowa at #31 UCLA (-5), 9 PM ET, FS1. As of now, this is being played, but as with all things California wildfires it’s probably a bit up in the air. If it goes on, this will somehow be the weakest defense UCLA has played since December 17…when they played Prairie View A&M. Against the seven defenses ranked worse than Iowa on UCLA’s schedule: 88, 84, 71, 85, 80, 85, and 111 points. Could be a tremendous get-right game.
C GAMES
#45 VCU (-2) at #91 Saint Joseph’s, 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Since taking the SJU job, no team has been quite as large a bugaboo for Billy Lange as VCU has. He’s yet to defeat them in five tries, with VCU winning those five by an average of 13.4 points. With their season flagging this feels like a must-win.
#83 Providence at #48 Villanova (-8), 7 PM ET, FS1. Since Villanova committed to their current starting lineup on November 24 against Maryland: 26th overall, #2 offense, shooting 42% from three. That last number almost certainly will not hold, but this is a better team than you’d think.