Week 11 Watchlist, M-F: The Daily Dylan
A job in the great Northwoods
Hello and welcome to the Watchlist, a weekly column here at the Substack where I cover what I think are the best games at all levels of college hoops in a given week. These watchlist posts are always free, by the way. First, a short essay.
The Watchlist Tune O’ the Week
Around twice a year, generally whenever I’m in a bit of a lull with what I’m listening to, I go to the Best Ever Albums site to poke around. In an era with endless lists and/or listicles, I’m unsure of how much of a use it is, but hey, I like it. The key is less about that and more about a specific page, which rates bands and artists by a ‘score’ determined by how often they’ve shown up on various best albums lists over the decades. The current top ten is this:
Is Arcade Fire the eighth-best band in history? I like them a lot (or did prior to their last couple stinkers), but obviously not. The point is less about if the list is right and more as a sort of prompt for me to go exploring. I’ve done the top four the last 1.5 years, and because I am a completist, I do the entire discography. This means the studio albums, obviously, but it also means live albums, EPs, singles, bootlegs, and whatever stupid curiosities said artist has released.
For some, like the Beatles, this is an excuse to go back and remember that I like pretty much everything they’ve ever done with some minor exceptions. For others, like Pink Floyd and David Bowie, it becomes an extraordinary slog as I attempt to finish out a bunch of stuff I hate the second I begin listening to it. I like Pink Floyd. I like David Bowie. Sometimes, I love them. But I do not love everything they ever did, which makes listening to the abhorrent A Momentary Lapse of Reason or Black Tie White Noise (an album that truly sounds like an hour-long fart) a miserable experience.
I bring this up because I’ve made it to #5 on the list this year, Bob Dylan. I feel like I know Dylan fairly well. I’ve listened to all the classics; I even kept up with his newer stuff over the last couple decades. But ever since I gave him a shot for the first time at age 20, now ten years ago, I have avoided a certain section of his discography like the plague. It is this.
As far as I can recall, maybe aside from a few Oh Mercy tracks (this is seen as the ‘respectable’ one), I have never heard any of these. I have put them off for many, many years, because I would like to only listen to the things I am already aware of being good. But I’m also reminded of something I was told once: even the worst things Bob Dylan ever did were at least interesting in some way. It was Bob Dylan, after all.
This is on the mind because this morning, after a nice run in the snow, I ran through Street Legal for the first time. It sucks, and it’s his worst record in his career up to that point, excluding some of the money-grabbing live records. (The best one of these that I’ve heard is easily Live 1975.) But! It is fascinating hearing this. For whatever reason, Bob Dylan made an album in 1978 that sounds like a harried attempt to recreate very specific parts of Bruce Springsteen’s records from the same time period. I’m assuming he couldn’t hire out the E Street Band, so he tried to recreate it. Outside of “Baby Stop Crying” I don’t think it works, but hey, it’s very interesting to hear.
This does not relate to basketball at all aside from the fact that there’s games, or stretches of the season, that I generally do not want to get through. But everything, even the worst of it all, provides some interest. Even when I am in the darkest days of Daily Dylan, there are still some good things to hunt for. I promise!
All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. All D-2 and lower rankings are via Massey. I haven’t posted the grading scale in a while:
FIVE STARS means you need to clear out your schedule to watch that game, barring some sort of deal where your personal team is playing at that time.
FOUR STARS means I recommend at least catching most of the game if you can.
THREE STARS means these are good or fine games, but not top-flight ones that you absolutely need to watch. If required, you can watch the Matthew Loves Ball highlights the next day.
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK is non-negotiable. If you have the remote and aren’t watching it, the problem lies with you. (Though if you are playing or coaching in a game at that time, then I get it.)
Subscribe here people. Word-of-mouth really does work best, because I don’t advertise and don’t like the idea of doing so.
MONDAY, JANUARY 15
Is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Which is important for 500,000 greater reasons but should explain some of the weird start times you’ll see.
FOUR STARS
#24 Villanova at #19 Marquette (-4), 2:30 PM ET, FOX. For a midday showdown on a holiday this is very, very good. FOX and the Big East/Big Ten have had a knack for ensuring at least one banger on MLK Day over the years, and this is no different. These two teams do very different things but arrive at similar outcomes. Marquette’s offense has fallen all the way to 52nd in KenPom, which honestly makes this a tremendous buy-low spot if you’re like me and think they simply cannot be as bad as they’ve shown from three.
Eagles at Buccaneers, 8 PM ET, ESPN. Bumped up a star by a hair because this has the potential to be a very, very funny football game.
THREE STARS
#42 Ohio State (-1) at #75 Michigan, 12 PM ET, FOX. This is on the three-star level because it’s an Ohio State team that appears unserious yet again and a Michigan team that has completely folded, but the good news is that neither team plays any defense at all. Plus, this is a home game, so Dug McDaniel will be playing.
Steelers at Bills, 4:30 PM ET, CBS. 0.5 stars for the Steelers, 5 stars for the Bills.
#47 Iowa (-1) at #83 Minnesota, 6 PM ET, BTN. This was the closest of the remaining games to being on the four-star level because I find both teams to be pretty entertaining, if very imperfect. Iowa’s offense is starting to find its groove somewhat, back inside the KenPom top 20. Minnesota looks more competent than it has in a while and has a real Dog in Dawson Garcia. I like this one!
TUESDAY, JANUARY 16
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#12 Iowa State at #11 BYU (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Folks, this is The Goods. This is Real Hoop. These are two completely different systems on both sides of the ball, a tonally-jarring game that should be one of the most fascinating clashes of styles we get all season.
It’s a BYU offense that’s go-go every time the ball touches their hands and bombs away from three up against an Iowa State defense that forces more turnovers than anybody and makes life hell on offenses. It’s an Iowa State offense that’s been tremendous at attacking the rim against a BYU defense that allows fewer attempts at the rim than anyone in the nation.
This is also just an elite coaching matchup for me between a pair of two rising stars that could either be in it for the long haul or be in line for top-10 jobs in the near future. ISU’s T.J. Otzelberger has brought new life to a program that needed it and is only 46, with a litany of Midwest ties. BYU’s Mark Pope, meanwhile, is a former Kentucky team captain with a nine-year NBA career. I love this one, friends.
FIVE STARS
#87 Samford at #112 Western Carolina (-1), 6 PM ET, CBSSN. This is going to look really high on face value, but hear me out. This is 15-2 at 15-2 for the Southern Conference lead. It’s also one of the most entertaining offenses in basketball (Samford) against one of the most entertaining players in basketball (WCU’s Vonterius Woolbright). By the way, Vonterius Woolbright update: 20.6 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 5.3 APG. No player has gone 20/10/5 in 30+ years.
FOUR STARS
#23 TCU at #32 Cincinnati (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I guess you could argue that this should be higher, but contextually it’s hard to go all in. I like this game but can’t get to loving it; neither offense is very sexy to watch, particularly Cincinnati’s. This should be a fun battle, though, especially when both teams have real strengths in rim protection and limiting the amount of shots their opponent gets off. (I’m just saying that 77-75 seems aggressive to me.)
#41 Florida at #8 Tennessee (-10), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Fun! Florida has elected to play at a NASCAR pace this year, which is great for watchability but frankly very bad for their defense. Tennessee is also quietly playing at their fastest pace in sixteen seasons, aka since the peak Bruce Pearl years. The intriguing thing here is two-fold: Florida ranks #2 in Haslametrics schedule-adjusted rim FG% allowed, while Tennessee is #9. What wins out: transition buckets or half-court defensive excellency?
#14 Baylor (-3) at #58 Kansas State, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This Kansas State team isn’t good, but they have Tylor Perry, who is always worth the price of admission. I’d also like to reiterate my statement about Baylor having reached peak offensive value. Since starting out by shooting 47% from deep in November/December they’re at 35% in January.
NCAAW: #45 Kansas at #5 Texas (-13.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is on here because it’s an NCAA Tournament team at a top-five team, which is worth your time no matter what. Unfortunately, I think this is a pretty awful matchup for Kansas, a below-average rebounding team who’s about to play the very best offensive rebounding unit in the sport.
#40 Utah State at #39 New Mexico (-3), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. The main ethos of being a college basketball fan, or just life, is accepting that the Mountain West is the most fun conference in the sport every single year.
THREE STARS
#63 Butler at #31 Xavier (-7), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Butler is squarely in bubble talks as of now and needs to begin piling up wins, but this is an absolute must-win for Xavier if they want to have a shot at March. They’re already at -1.4 Wins Above Bubble and are 8-8, 2-3 Big East. A win here helps but the bare minimum to feel better about themselves means going 3-2 to finish out January. Really, they probably need to win at Creighton (January 23) or UConn (January 28) to get back on track.
#36 Wake Forest (-1) at #70 NC State, 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Similar-ish deal but both teams are bubble material. Considering the status here as a true toss-up both teams could use this one big time.
#3 Purdue (-11) at #91 Indiana, 7 PM ET, Peacock. On paper, this is a terrible basketball game. But until Purdue gets their road woes under control, every Purdue road game is going to at least receive a mention here.
#34 St. John’s (-1) at #64 Seton Hall, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Two good resumes here that are in the process of building upwards. Is St. John’s secretly the third-best team in the Big East behind UConn and Creighton? Maybe, maybe not.
#81 UNLV at #49 Boise State (-6), 10 PM ET, CBSSN. Boise, just keep winning. Just take care of business. Nothing silly, fellas. I want to see you in the field of 68. UNLV, don’t think about it.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 17
FIVE STARS
#15 Creighton at #7 Connecticut (-5), 7 PM ET, FS1. This is a terrific battle of the two best teams in the Big East. Donovan Clingan still isn’t back for UConn, which means that Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner could potentially feast against a diminished interior defense, but at the same time UConn’s offense has been so tremendous it may not matter.
That being said, their small-ball lineups with Alex Karaban at the 5 haven’t worked like I’d hoped. Per Hoop-Explorer, UConn’s offense and defense get about 5 points worse per 100 possessions each with him at center. That’s adjusted for shooting luck and includes a gigantic 66%-40% 2PT% gap in favor of the offense. Predictably, the lost efficiency comes from a rare rebounding deficit and some major struggles with rim protection. We’ll see how often UConn goes to it, if at all.
NCAAW: #14 Ohio State at #21 Maryland (-2.5), 7 PM ET, Peacock. As good as I think the Pac-12 is this year, the Big Ten has been providing banger after banger every single week. You’re aware of Iowa, of course, but very quietly the Big Ten has five of the sport’s 20 best offenses. Both teams here average 80+ points a game and 73+ possessions, meaning your expected total here is probably 150+ combined points.
Most exciting is that these are two opposite approaches to the same equation. 89% of Ohio State’s shots either come in the paint or from three, per CBB Analytics. They barely bother with the midrange at all. Meanwhile, Maryland only takes 26% of their shots from deep but is pouring it in from midrange thanks to excellent efforts from Shyanne Sellers (16.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.1 APG) in particular.
FOUR STARS
#28 Mississippi State at #17 Kentucky (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Mississippi State had the chance at the week of a lifetime, trailing Alabama 76-74 for like three minutes straight down the stretch Saturday night. They proceeded to go 0-for-6 from the free throw line. Given the shooters attempting those, the odds of that happening were approximately 0.06%. This is a cruel sport, but it goes both ways. If MSU chooses to ground and pound with Tolu here they’re going to have a real advantage if Kentucky rolls Tre Mitchell out at the five. UK’s giving up a 64% hit rate at the rim with him at center.
NCAAW: #28 Marquette at #34 Villanova (-1.5), 7 PM ET, Flo Hoops.
NCAAW: #31 Michigan at #36 Nebraska (-1.5), 8 PM ET, BTN+. Two very similar games on subscription services that not too many people have. Michigan is 4-4 away from home and really needs a big road win here, whereas the top matchup is reversed: it’s Marquette with the much better resume. The best player involved here is Nebraska’s Jaz Shelley, one of just three high-major players to go 10+ PPG/5+ APG/1+ OREB/1+ steal per game.
#30 Texas Tech at #1 Houston (-12), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. The last person I would want to be this week is a member of the Houston Cougars basketball team. You are going to die in today’s practice. You’ve just gotta accept it. If you live, you probably did not go through the rebounding war drill for more than one try. You are going to die. Embrace death. Accept it.
#44 Nevada at #24 San Diego State (-5), 11 PM ET, CBSSN. Here are Jaedon LeDee’s On/Off stats for the 2023-24 season.
That’s an All-American. Whether or not the voters give it to him or not is anyone’s guess, because it doesn’t seem like anyone is giving Mark Sears (Alabama) or Joel Soriano (St. John’s) their proper due, either. But I really think he should be, at worst, a second-teamer. He’s that good. He wasn’t a full-time starter last year! What a leap.
THREE STARS
#61 Virginia Tech at #69 Virginia (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. I’m putting this on here for the sole reason that it should be considered an NCAA Tournament eliminator. If you can’t win this game against this version of your heated rival, I would like to no longer hear about you this season.
NCAAW: #16 Kansas State (-7.5) at #52 TCU, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Are we sure Kansas State isn’t the best team in the Big 12? Like, 100%? These ladies are 17-1 with wins over Iowa, Texas, UNC, and Oklahoma. The argument would be to have Baylor or Texas ahead of them, which is fine, but I’m starting to be swayed by KSU. Predictably, this is where a TCU team built on offensive variance and white-hot three-point shooting could be a spoiler.
NCAAW: #50 Minnesota at #6 Indiana (-13.5), 8 PM ET, Peacock. Not gonna blame Indiana for getting smashed by Iowa given the weird travel schedule. Take care of business here and you should be fine.
#110 Northern Iowa at #134 Belmont, 9 PM ET, CBSSN. This is exclusively a play of “I love both offenses and both offensive systems.”
THURSDAY, JANUARY 18
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #10 Virginia Tech at #24 Duke (-0.5), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. On a relatively down weekday slate for the men’s side, the women’s side is more than carrying their share. I love watching Virginia Tech’s offense, which is like laying down and looking at a fresco painting if it were a half-court set with shooters all over the court. Kara Lawson has overhauled Duke’s defense into a seriously menacing unit, one with the top combined Steal%/Block% in all of college hoops. (An unreasonable 31% of possessions feature either a steal or a blocked shot. My God, dude.)
NCAAW: #8 LSU (-5.5) at #23 Alabama, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. SEC hoops this year has felt underwhelming but these two teams are determined to make you have a lot of fun. LSU leads the nation with 21 fastbreak points per game, while Alabama has their best team in ages and attacks the rim nearly every possession. Two very fun shot charts.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #12 NC State (-7.5) at #43 Miami, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. This is like a less-exciting version of LSU/Alabama. Both teams are better on defense than on offense, with NCSU being possibly the most dominant interior defense in the nation. Considering a large amount of Miami’s offensive efficiency is reliant on picking up second-chance points down low, it’s a tough ask.
NCAAW: #35 Tennessee (-0.5) at #33 Mississippi State, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Massey favors Tennessee here for reasons I can’t quite decipher. Either way, this is a hugely important game for both sides. Tennessee quietly ranks 64th (!) in NET and is by no means a Tournament lock. Neither is State, who has the 15-4 record but is 2-3 against top-50 teams.
#54 Oregon at #37 Colorado (-5), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. Were you aware that Oregon is 13-3 and 5-0 in Pac-12 play? I was not but they simply just keep winning. They’ve got a pair of ugly losses to Santa Clara and Syracuse, but they’re now 2-1 against Quad 1 opponents. Colorado, meanwhile, might be in trouble; they’re 1-3 in their last four with two of them being horrid Q2/Q3 road losses. They have zero Quadrant 1 wins. They’re the better team by every metric one can find, but they need to improve their resume.
THREE STARS
#13 Illinois (-5) at #75 Michigan, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Copy and paste the prior sentiment for Michigan. For Illinois: you lost to Maryland at home? On a day when Maryland shot 23% from three and got out-rebounded? Don’t do that again, lest you lose your tag of Actual Serious Team.
#121 Eastern Washington at #109 Weber State (-5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Top two teams in the Big Sky tangling here. If you haven’t seen Dillon Jones on Weber yet I highly recommend it, because the number of times you’re going to see a surefire first-rounder in the Big Sky before he transfers elsewhere is pretty small. Eastern Washington’s offense is fabulously run, too.
#116 UC San Diego at #71 UC Irvine (-8), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Top two teams in the Big West tangling here. The main star in any UC Irvine game is usually UC Irvine’s defense, though UCSD’s Bryce Pope (18.7 PPG) is simply fantastic.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 19
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #9 UCLA (-0.5) at #17 Colorado, 8 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
NCAAW: #22 USC at #7 Utah (-7.5), 9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. For the third straight week, the Pac-12 is bailing out your Friday nights. What a tremendous conference. Wonder if it’s going away or anything?
UCLA/Colorado just missed out on being the Six-Star Game of the Week by a hair, but it’s a 5.5-star game in my opinion. I mean…look at this. How could you not have fun when these are the two teams going at it?
It’s going to be bonkers. Both teams want to play as fast as they possibly can, and both teams want to force the other to commit 20+ turnovers. Both teams also foul a lot, which means the number of scenarios where this isn’t high-scoring and tight are pretty low. I’m expecting something in the neighborhood of, like, 77-76.
USC/Utah shouldn’t be as close, but it’s a matchup of two of the three best players in the conference and therefore the entire sport. USC’s JuJu Watkins is a true delight, scoring 26.5 PPG, shooting 39% from three, and getting to the line more than any other player in America. Utah’s Alissa Pili is a true bucket-getter, averaging 22.2 PPG on super-efficient shooting. She’s also developed a nasty three-point shot this year, hitting 41% from three on over four attempts per game. She’s borderline unguardable. So is Watkins. Can’t wait. Thank you, Pac-12. God bless you.
FOUR STARS
None.
THREE STARS
#97 Akron (-3) at #174 Kent State, 7 PM ET, ESPNU. I mean: Akron’s Enrique Freeman (18.3 PPG, 13.1 RPG) vs. Kent State’s Chris Payton Jr. (14.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG) and Jalen Sullinger (14.6 PPG). Plus, arguably the two best teams in the MAC.
NCAAW: #64 Belmont at #54 Drake (-4.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Along with Murray State, these are two of the best teams in a pretty good MVC. These are also two of the best shooting teams in America with opposite approaches to how they get there. Belmont wants this game to be <65 possessions, while Drake hopes to push the pace early and often.
#81 UNLV at #26 Colorado State (-9), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. UNLV: don’t think about it. Don’t. We’re trying to protect our six-bid Mountain West.