Week 12 Watchlist: A Battle Going On Between the Blue and the Gray
Football? What's a football
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
No comment. Football is evil and not of this world.
Actually, one comment: I do think we’re reaching a critical mass with Review Culture. For a little bit there, people seemed fine with reviews as a way of getting everything right, at least within reason. I’m not sure when the scale began to tip, but I wonder if it started with the end of the 2019 national title game. This play, which would have been Texas Tech’s ball for 38 minutes of a 40-minute basketball game, was Virginia’s.
I remember seeing a lot of hate for this objectively correct call, but I was a younger man then. Now, seeing how badly these games are getting drawn out, I’m a fan of cutting these down however we can. The Michigan/Northwestern game on Sunday saw its final minute of action take 21 minutes. Auburn/Georgia on Saturday, per our friend joshdub: 20 minutes, 6 seconds. The Ole Miss/Mississippi State game on Saturday - only 74 possessions, albeit with an overtime - lasted 2 hours and 41 minutes.
This has reached a point of no return. No less than Ken Pomeroy, one of the most rational and calm people I know in the basketball universe, shared his take that this has gone too far.
My fear is that waiting until the offseason isn’t good enough. It’s pretty easy to envision an otherwise amazing Round of 64 game, one that has all of us buzzing, ruined by a 19-minute final minute of play that features three reviews, multiple overturned calls, one blatantly missed call because it can’t be overturned, and leaves no one satisfied. Oh wait: that already happened.
The solution here is one the NBA has figured out for a while: coach’s challenges. Replay reviews can be triggered in the final two minutes, but otherwise, they do not happen unless the coach uses his one challenge for the game. (If that challenge is successful, the coach receives a second one.) It also avoids clogging up the pace of the game, particularly early on. Per the NBA’s own stats, 65% of challenges are used in the second half of the game. On the whole, only 30% of them are around out-of-bounds calls, which seem to constitute 99% of end-game reviews in college basketball.
Plus, not every challenge gets used, same as the NFL. On average, about 1.29 challenges of are used per game, which actually feels higher than it would in college considering the average scoring margin of an NBA game is closer than that of college hoops. Given the 59.4% overturn rate, this means the average NBA game ends up with the coaches involved having a potential 3.18 challenges available for use. A 40.6% usage rate, then, shows some amount of restraint and trust in the officials that we’re all theoretically supposed to trust in the first place to get these calls correct.
Is this a perfect solution? No, because loopholes will be found and something will inevitably go wrong. But it’s a lot better than what we have right now, an incomprehensible mess that’s ruining almost every good game in the sport.
MONDAY, JANUARY 20
Today is MLK Day. I advise that if you work for a corporation, sports team, or anything involving you having to post a graphic for MLK Day, just play it safe. Nothing stupid. Nothing you will hear about for 50 years. Nothing like what FSU did once. Nothing that will get you fired. Play it safe, post a quote. Please.
A GAME
NCAAW: #21 Maryland vs. #4 Texas (-14.5), 5:30 PM ET, FOX. More impressive with AP rankings than in real life, where this is (or was at the time of writing) #8 vs. #7. Against top-150 teams, these are two of the four most dominant offensive rebounding teams in the sport. The difference maker: Texas forces the fourth-most turnovers. Maryland has a negative turnover margin. That being said, they figure to have the 3 > 2 math advantage here given that Texas never takes threes, but if they can’t at least draw on the boards it might be bleak.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #27 Baylor vs. #3 UCLA (-15), 3 PM ET, FOX. UCLA looks tremendous and everyone’s aware, so let’s chat Baylor. They’re 7-3 against top-150 competition - fine - but the interior demolition they used to possess seemingly every year as a program is gone and they’re playing more like an 8/9 seed than something truly dominant. This still makes it sort of a Round of 32 preview for UCLA, but this UCLA team could end up winning their Round of 32 game by 24.
NCAAW: #39 Princeton (-2) at #62 Columbia, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. 3-0 at 3-0 in the Ivy, for one. Along with that, these are two of the three teams that have real at-large hopes and are pushing as hard as they can to turn this into a multi-bid league. It would be more helpful for Columbia to win this game for at-large purposes, but either winning (plus Harvard not losing to Penn) is fine.
C GAMES
#184 Columbia at #124 Princeton (-6), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Princeton won’t be as good as I’d hoped this year, it seems, but they’re 13-4 (2-0 Ivy) and could put Columbia (who started 9-0!) in a huge 0-3 hole in league play.
#76 Georgetown at #52 Villanova (-7), 6 PM ET, FS1. At-large eliminator, I think. Especially for Villanova. Both of these teams are playing from behind and can’t afford many more losses.
#82 Rutgers at #49 Penn State (-7), 6:30 PM ET, Peacock. The Rutgers at-large case is basically done, but Penn State is hanging on by a thread if they win this game. My guess: gotta finish 10-10 in B1G play to be at the cutline.
F- GAME
NCAAF: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State, 8 PM ET, ABC/ESPN/whatever. The only things I could say about this game that would come from the heart would have me put on a government watchlist before I hit ‘publish.’ Therefore, I abstain. This is the title game we deserve.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 21
A GAME
#22 Mississippi State at #6 Tennessee (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This is a strange top game, but it’s also top-20 at top-20. Tennessee is a weird team. I don’t think they’re wobbling by any means; I also think Chaz Lanier’s finishing has been brutal and is the main thing holding them back from more offensively. Then again, State is no spring chicken either. They still don’t shoot well from deep, are hyper-reliant on Josh Hubbard to bail them out, and are 16!!! points worse per 100 possessions whenever he has to leave the floor. But, hey, you get Hubbard vs. Zakai Zeigler, and that’s a show worth your time. Plus: what if Chaz Lanier gets hot?
B GAMES
#48 Vanderbilt at #8 Alabama (-12), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Vanderbilt is well ahead of where they should be in Year One of Mark Byington. This is a house money game for a team that would be in the NCAA Tournament if it happened today and is a legitimate Sweet Sixteen threat. This is a huge strength-on-weakness game both ways: a Vandy team that should win the turnover battle by +6 or more, an Alabama team that should score at will at the rim. If Vandy hits threes this gets interesting fast.
#83 George Mason at #89 St. Bonaventure (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. #2 at #4 in A-10 title odds. The Bonnies really, really need this one to stem the tide, while GMU needs it to keep pace with a hot VCU team that looks like the best thing going in the A-10. My fear here for GMU is pretty obvious: against the five top-150 defenses they’ve played they’ve averaged 63.2 PPG. Is that enough?
#12 Texas Tech (-1) at #40 Cincinnati, 7 PM ET, ESPNU. I was going to joke that Cincinnati would kill for 63 points, but they did get 68 and 67 in their last two, so I guess I tip the cap. I have a concern of sorts about non-home Texas Tech. In six games away from home they’re 106th in defensive efficiency and bleed fouls left and right. It may be meaningless against a Cincinnati team that scores like Iowa football, but it’s of interest going forward.
#34 Ohio State at #10 Purdue (-9), 7:30 PM ET, Peacock. Fine, whatever, I believe in Purdue now. Credit goes to Matt Painter, who changed this team for the better as soon as he put Caleb Furst in the starting lineup. In six games with him there, Purdue’s +4.8 on the boards per 100, +8.2 in turnovers, and +6.0% in 2PT% despite the Big Ten slate. Before Furst: -1.1 turnovers, -1.6 rebounds, +2.6% 2PT%. He’s the secret sauce.
#29 Louisville at #39 SMU (-2), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. A hearty, major hat tip to one Pat Kelsey for the work done with Louisville this year. One button he’s pressed that I don’t see a lot of talk about was benching Terrence Edwards, perhaps the star addition, before the Duke game on December 8. Pre-benching, Edwards had a 96 ORtg on 23% USG and had more turnovers than assists. Since then: 112 ORtg on 23% USG, the team’s leading scorer with 15.5 PPG. Sad but true fact about the ACC: aside from a game with Pitt on March 1, this is Louisville’s last top-50 opponent of the season. Seriously.
#28 Missouri at #42 Texas (-2), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. If Texas drops this one to move to 1-5 SEC, you may be able to shut the door on them, but they’ve played the toughest conference slate of anyone so far and it lightens up a bit the rest of the way.
#21 Wisconsin at #31 UCLA (-1), 9:30 PM ET, Peacock. Do you like mini-regression games? Here’s an interesting one. In conference play, Wisconsin is +5.5% 3PT after running +2.4% in non-conference. UCLA, meanwhile, is -6.3% after a +6.2% non-conference performance. Possibly not all at once, obviously, but keep it in mind.
C GAMES
#41 VCU (-5) at #101 Rhode Island, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Rhode Island hanging on by a thread in the A-10 race; VCU could really put the hammer down with a win and GMU/Duquesne losses.
#90 Butler at #30 UConn (-11), 7 PM ET, FS1. After two years of mostly uninterrupted dominance, UConn is this year’s recipient of Bad Shooting Luck. Per Synergy, based on the type of three-pointers UConn allows, they’d be expected to give up a 32% hit rate from deep. Opponents are instead shooting 38.1% from three and 39.3% in conference play. The last high-major team to finish in the 300s in opponent 3PT% and top 20 in opponent 2PT% (as UConn would do) was 2017-18 North Carolina, who did end up a 2 seed. And then got demolished in the Round of 32. No Escalators don’t read this.
#81 Bradley (-2) at #136 Belmont, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. #1(ish) at #3 in the MVC race. I like this Bradley team but think Drake’s better. Why not just put both in the Tournament? Please?
#32 North Carolina (-1) at #77 Wake Forest, 9 PM ET, ESPN. UNC’s 38th in NET, 40th (on average) in the resume metrics, and 32nd on average in predictive metrics. If Hubert misses again…
#61 Arizona State at #36 West Virginia (-8), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Resume-wise, Arizona State is in the bubble mix and whatnot. Justice-wise, I am praying for West Virginia to deliver the smackdown.
#16 Arizona (-10) at #105 Oklahoma State, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Big 12 play has been…well, unkind to Oklahoma State. Since Christmas: 356th-best nationally in 2PT%, 341st-best in opponent 2PT%. It’s the third-worst 2PT% gap in the sport over the last month.
#37 Creighton (-5) at #104 DePaul, 9 PM ET, FS1. DePaul has to show me something here defensively that they haven’t yet. This is the seventh top-75 offense they’ve faced. The previous six averaged 84.7 PPG, all DePaul losses.
#44 BYU (-2) at #92 Colorado, 11 PM ET, ESPNU. This is a good BYU team that seems destined to miss the NCAA Tournament and join the legion of previous Good Big 12 Teams that missed the Tournament due to playing in the meat grinder. Some years it ain’t your year.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 22
A GAMES
NCAAW: #17 Michigan at #23 Minnesota (-0.5), 7 PM ET, BTN+. It’s a shame this is getting shoved to BTN+ because this deserves a larger audience. Minnesota is 17-2 but hasn’t played much of anything in the way of a challenging schedule; Michigan is 13-5 but rapidly getting better, which makes sense for a team built around freshmen. I think Michigan’s better overall but my fear here is Michigan’s turnover issues, which keep cropping up in these losses.
#19 Texas A&M at #17 Mississippi (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I mean…this is basically a Round of 32 game, right? Like a 4 seed versus a 5? Most people can presumably get into that. I must regrettably tip the cap to Chris Beard, who shouldn’t be a coach right now, for doing a tremendous coaching job with a roster I did not think was capable of this. A&M has to win the shot volume battle bigly here because I highly doubt they’re out-shooting Ole Miss.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #12 TCU (-5) at #37 Oklahoma State, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. You may not know about them just yet, but keep an eye on this Oklahoma State squad. They’re 7-2 against top-150 competition and have owned the interior, both offensively and defensively. This could be a titanic battle if they show up.
#7 Kansas (-7) at #75 TCU, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Huge congrats to Jamie Dixon and crew for pulling off a road win at rival Baylor on Sunday. It got lost in the sports shuffle with the NFL, but that’s a genuine season-saver. A real worry here is that this could be a 58-52 style game.
#47 Xavier at #18 St. John’s (-9), 7 PM ET, FS1. Both of these teams are significantly worse offensively against quality competition, but it didn’t matter for Xavier as they defeated Marquette on the road. Lot of season-savers this weekend! Simultaneously I don’t think St. John’s is gonna shoot 27.4% from deep against top-150 competition forever.
NCAAW: #32 Iowa (-0.5) at #41 Washington, 8 PM ET, Peacock. This is officially a must-win game for Iowa, who is teetering right now on offense and seemingly cannot get easy buckets despite having a pair of great post players. Worrisome.
#56 Boise State at #78 Colorado State (-1), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. We’re beginning to get to “gotta have it” territory for our Boise State Broncos. Per Torvik, a loss here gives them just a 17% shot at an at-large bid. I love their brand of toiletball and I do not want them to miss out on the March fun. Plus, them getting in probably knocks out some annoying SEC team.
#65 Nevada at #50 Utah State (-6), 9 PM ET, FS1. We’re beginning to get to…ah, not really. Nevada has no at-large case left, outside of like a 10-3 run to the finish. For Utah State this is mostly “fix your metrics” style stuff; their scoring margin is more reflective of a 12-6 or 13-5 team than a 16-2 one. That’ll matter for seeding.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #52 Villanova at #2 UConn (-26.5), 6 PM ET, SNY. Time for the OFFICIAL! UConn Wager: O/U +544.5 total scoring margin in Big East play. They’re currently at +281 with ten games to go.
NCAAW: #76 BYU at #42 Iowa State (-10), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Go 2-0 this week and Iowa State is 15-7, 6-3 Big 12. Not bad after how ugly the metrics have gotten.
#5 Florida (-10) at #84 South Carolina, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. I highly doubt South Carolina goes winless, but this is a brutal SEC and someone has to lose games. The Gamecocks are 84th-best nationally and would at worst finish 10th in the 18-team ACC. They’re getting flambéd here.
#59 Indiana at #51 Northwestern (-3), 7 PM ET, BTN. A great Nervousness Battle. Indiana goes from a 35% chance at an at-large bid with a win to 14% with a loss, per Torvik. Northwestern’s odds are lower but their remaining B1G schedule is the third-easiest of the 18. (IU’s is hardest.)
#133 Purdue Fort Wayne at #178 Oakland (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The Horizon League title race projects to be pretty nutty, and both of these teams have a good shot at the crown.
#116 Temple at #58 North Texas (-9), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. North Texas has even AAC title odds with Memphis as of now, which is pretty funny. Temple: quietly a top-four team in the American! Good for them.
#70 USC at #46 Nebraska (-6), 9 PM ET, BTN. Should we chat USC? Since losing Terrance Williams to injury on December 4, all they’ve done is play like a top-20 team in America, go 6-3, and have a top-25 offense and defense. Now, the counterpoint: in that stretch, they’re +11.8% from 3. I’m intrigued!
#35 Georgia at #53 Arkansas (-2), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. …should we also chat Georgia? First ten games: +6.7% from three, +13.4% from two. Last eight: +0.4%, +8.2%. I still think they’re good but their offense is genuinely a very hard watch.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 23
A GAMES
NCAAW: #21 Maryland at #11 Ohio State (-9), 6 PM ET, BTN. Adjust for games only against top-100 competition and this is #14 at #9, which feels a little more apt. Maryland is capable of shooting the lights out whenever they choose to take threes, which strangely isn’t often, but they could have a huge edge on the boards here. Conversely, Ohio State wins the turnover battle every single game and could take advantage of a Maryland group that has a weird turnover problem. I’m really pumped for this one.
#23 Maryland at #9 Illinois (-8), 9 PM ET, FS1. No real restraints here: just a very good college basketball game. Illinois is probably pretty hot over how Sunday’s game against Michigan State ended, and this is an Illini team that’s been 13!!! points better per 100 possessions in first halves this year, per Hoop-Explorer. (It’s the same regardless of competition level, FWIW.) Then again, Maryland’s defense has been way better in the first half than the second. Let’s see!
B GAMES
NCAAW: #16 LSU at #1 South Carolina (-18), 8 PM ET, ESPN. This is the highest-profile game of the day, and people will wonder why I don’t have it in the A tier. Here’s why: I don’t put any game with a 90%+ chance of a victory for the favorite in the A tier. South Carolina’s at 94%. Whether or not you believe in that is up to you, but based on to-date stats, South Carolina is 18 points better.
D2: #12 West Texas A&M at #8 Dallas Baptist (-5.5), 8 PM ET, Flo Sports. For once I’m fine that a game is on Flo Sports. I guess. These are two of the best D2 squads this year and this is a fun regional rivalry of sorts. DBU’s Ricky Lujan is one of the most fun players at any level of hoops right now: 16.9 PPG, 1.8 SPG, 51% from two, 36% from three. Elite defensive piece.
NCAAW: #20 Tennessee at #4 Texas (-18.5), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Regrettably the same deal as the LSU/SoCar game. Tennessee is fine, but I know it’s gotta sting to have three losses by four total points, all to very good basketball teams. They’re very close to pulling one of these off. This one feels a little too big at this time but they’re going to have a gigantic math advantage because of Texas’s shot diet.
#71 San Francisco at #27 Saint Mary’s (-9), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Saint Mary’s is probably fine, and given Gonzaga’s struggles, they’re best positioned to rush to the top of the WCC if it’s truly open. So: root for San Francisco. It might hurt in the moment, but this is a resume-saver if they can get it.
NCAAW: #31 California (-2.5) at #46 Stanford, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. I always love a rivalry. Versus top-150 competition, Cal rates as a borderline top-25 team. Stanford: 50th.
C GAMES
#74 Lipscomb (-3) at #141 North Alabama, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I would argue these are the two best teams in the Atlantic Sun, so if you want a potential preview of March 9, here you go.
#121 St. Thomas (-3) at #223 Nebraska Omaha, 8 PM ET, Midco Sports Plus. If you like points, I would advise overpaying to watch this basketball game.
#111 Appalachian State at #94 Arkansas State (-5), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Another potential conference title game preview. App State since getting back to full strength on December 18: 5-3 with the three losses by a combined 18 points and 79th overall nationally.
#57 UC Irvine (-8) at #171 UC Riverside, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a true kiss of death moment, but! If UCI wins, can we chat an at-large case for them into existence? They’d be 18-2, 4-1 in Quads 1 + 2, top-30 in Wins Above Bubble, and top-35 in every resume-rating metric the committee uses. I think they’re closer to a 10 or 11 seed than the 13 they usually receive.
#87 Washington State at #63 Santa Clara (-5), 11 PM ET, CBSSN. Deceptively important game, both for the WCC and for two fledgling at-large cases.
NCAAW: #142 UC Davis at #131 Hawaii (-3), 12 AM ET, ESPN+. This is the likely decider for the Big West title race. This is also exclusively for insomniacs and/or people who do not live in Earth’s worst time zone like I do.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 24
A GAME
#11 Michigan at #10 Purdue (-5), 8 PM ET, FOX. This came closest to getting an A+ Game of the Week rating of any weekday game, so we’ll give it the honorary long preview.
You have heard of the Michigan Wolverines. They are 14-4, have four Quad 1 wins, and laid the smackdown to the state of California two weeks ago. They also just lost to Minnesota and their four losses are perhaps the most confounding four losses a team could have: Wake Forest, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota. The four losses have a pair of odd commonalities: Michigan gave up a 32% OREB% or worse to the opponent and allowed a 54%+ hit rate on twos in three of the four games. It’s confounding because A) none of these four teams are even in the top-200 in OREB% B) only Oklahoma is in the top 50 in 2PT%.
I bring this up because since Purdue pushed Caleb Furst to a starting role, they’ve got the 28th-highest 2PT% and the 26th-highest TO%. The second is worrisome for a Michigan team that seemingly cannot drop its one major flaw. And yet: Purdue’s profoundly mediocre P&R coverage is the exact thing that Michigan can exploit here to a lot of easy twos. Purdue doesn’t force tough shots in P&R and has had major, major issues with quality P&R rollers…which Michigan certainly has in Vlad Goldin.
The way these two teams have played since mid-December, this feels like a race to 80.
B GAMES
#52 Villanova at #15 Marquette (-9), 7 PM ET, FS1. I almost pushed this to A status for one reason: if Villanova wins, it is a legitimate season-shifter and resume-shifter in a way that basically no other game on the schedule could be. A win here gives them a 59% shot of an at-large bid (per Torvik); a loss, 22%. It would be their first Quad 1 win of the year. Great narrative game.
NCAAW: #38 Indiana at #26 Oregon (-6), 9 PM ET, BTN+. Speaking of teams desperate for a big road win: Indiana. The Hoosiers have roughly the resume of your average 10 seed at the moment right now, which means they’re going to experience two months of serious Tournament discomfort unless they dial up some better play. They actually own two top-50 wins (Baylor at a neutral, Iowa on the road) but a putrid road loss to a bad Butler team is really weighing them down.
#89 St. Bonaventure at #41 VCU (-8), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Pretty simple game: if the Bonnies win, it projects to make the A-10 race wide open, with all of VCU, GMU, the Bonnies, and Duquesne having a >15% shot at a title. If VCU wins, it looks like a two-team race.
#49 Penn State at #54 Iowa (-3), 9 PM ET, FS1. The projected score here is 87-84, Iowa. Do you need more?
C GAMES
#163 Kent State at #162 Ohio (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Akron and Miami (OH) are most likely to win the MAC, but if either slips up, these two are probably next up.
#91 Saint Joseph’s at #67 Dayton (-6), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Disappointment-off. Which fanbase dislikes their coach more? Tune in to find out!
NCAAW: #87 Drake at #81 Missouri State (-4), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This may only be for third place in the MVC, but that still matters. This year’s MVC is plenty capable of being a two-bid league, and every win these two can build up counts.
#31 UCLA (-5) at #95 Washington, 11 PM ET, FS1. If only this were on the Big Ten Network.