Week 12 Watchlist, M-F: Panda and Corn Talk
No more ice! I'm begging!
Hello and welcome to the Watchlist, a weekly column here at the Substack where I cover what I think are the best games at all levels of college hoops in a given week. These watchlist posts are always free, by the way. First, a short essay.
The Watchlist Tune O’ the Week
Watched the below video before bed last night, a few minutes after Chiefs/Bills went final. In the process of thinking about Stavros Halkias and Taylor Swift potentially meeting one another next Sunday - a truly unbelievable thought - I flipped on another Half As Interesting video to cool down for the night.
I never think about these things because I very rarely go to zoos. Frankly, I find them pretty depressing places, because I too wonder how sad the monkeys may or may not be at the zoo. For whatever reason I can rationalize aquariums a bit better in my head despite both probably being on the same level of ethical. It’s probably because I went to the Tennessee Aquarium a lot growing up, both on field trips and with my parents. Such is why I immediately recognized the font of the below fish the first time I saw a tweet about its name:
But, anyway, the video. Like any normal human I love seeing pandas; like any normal human I have never thought once about where the pandas came from. They gotta come from somewhere, and I suppose it makes sense it’s China. But for there to be such gatekeeping over an animal, almost entirely based on international relations, is pretty wild, no?
This led me back to another video, now that I couldn’t sleep because I was pondering pandas. It is one of the most informative I have seen, also by the same guy:
I was at the gym yesterday because our roads are still iced over and I’m going a bit insane. To get to safe running territory, you have to attempt to get down our road, which is iced over and which nearly led to the death of our beloved Nissan Rogue yesterday. Once you get to the bottom of the road, the sidewalks are all iced over, so I’ve been running alongside cars and giant trucks any time I’ve attempted to run outside. The high here - THE HIGH - was 21 on Saturday. So: treadmill.
Our Planet Fitness has managed to mess up the one television that plays NBC broadcasts, so I got to listen to the Iowa/Ohio State women’s game yesterday via radio while getting in the treadmill miles. The best bit of the broadcast was not the broadcast; it was the Iowa tourism ad that said “sure, our whole state is corn. But that’s good.” Like the pandas, I find it irrational but beautiful.
There is not a real point to this essay other than my brain is fried after a week of iced-over roads, because we were simply not ready for this. It makes me jealous of the Midwesterners and Northeasterners who see a foot of snow and say “whatever.” Basketball, save me. Also, corn, save me. And the pandas.
All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. All D-2 and lower rankings are via Massey.
Subscribe here please. Word-of-mouth really does work best, because I don’t advertise and don’t like the idea of doing so. Also, I won’t write about pandas ever again if you subscribe and that’s a promise, unless you want more panda talk.
MONDAY, JANUARY 22
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #9 UCLA at #6 Utah (-3.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. It took until last Sunday, but UCLA’s record finally has a blemish on it. At 15-1, they’re still on track for something like a 2 seed, and everything they’d like to have in Pac-12 play is right in front of them. On the opposite sideline will be a Utah team who’s struggled to bring home wins in close games but has largely impressed despite depth concerns and a critical injury to a starter.
I’m unsure how to sell this one beyond “it rocks” and “you will like it.” This is #9 at #10 in PPG. It’s #21 at #3 in eFG%. It’s #3 in OREB% at #3 in DREB%. #11 in assists at #2. It’s an elite frontcourt matchup between Utah’s Alissa Pili (23.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and UCLA’s Lauren Betts (15.9 PPG, 8.8 RPG). Not coincidentally, those are the two leaders in eFG% in the conference, alongside Utah’s Kennady McQueen (44% 3PT) and Jenna Johnson (42%). This is going to be very, very fun.
NCAAW: #16 Kansas State at #17 Baylor (-6.5), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. It says a lot about the above that this is being treated as the undercard, and it’s a great game in its own right. Both of these teams are in serious contention for 2-3 seed territory in March, with Kansas State sitting at 18-1 and all alone in first place in the Big 12. Meanwhile, Baylor sits in a three-way tie at fourth in the Big 12 standings and really needs to protect home court.
Contrary to the offense vs. offense battle above, this is arguably a defense vs. defense battle. These are both arguably top-10 defenses in America, with Kansas State in particular having slowed down some very impressive foes. Their formula has been defense + dumping it down to the great Ayoka Lee (19.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG), while Baylor’s three-headed backcourt of Jada Walker, Yaya Felder, and Aijha Blackwell wants to three-ball their way to a W.
FOUR STARS
#36 Wake Forest at #7 North Carolina (-10), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Fun! Not much more to say here. I think UNC’s defense has quietly evolved into the more impressive unit of the two, but this is still a UNC offense that’s top 15 in KenPom. Meanwhile Wake Forest is going supernova from three and is averaging 81.4 PPG in ACC play. Real chance this is just whichever team gets to 80 first. Also, worth noting that this is a really weird schedule spot for Wake. They play tonight, then get a 9-day break.
#33 Cincinnati at #18 Kansas (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Cincinnati should be thanking God for that TCU overtime win, because otherwise it’s a team that’s followed a 1-0 start at BYU with four consecutive losses. Kansas should also be thanking the big guy above for their win(s) two months ago, because since the UConn win their signature moments are losing to bad UCF and West Virginia teams that won’t be in the NCAA Tournament.
THREE STARS
#110 Weber State at #127 Montana (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Loser leaves town match. Both are two full games behind Big Sky leader Eastern Washington, with Weber State at 3-3 after a hot start. The loser here is pretty much 100% out of the regular season race.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 23
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #3 UConn (-12.5) at #27 Marquette, 7 PM ET, SNY. Because of an arcane TV contract (which I would guess probably does pay better than the ESPN+ model), this game is pretty much not up to watch unless you have it as part of a super-cable package or live around New York. A shame, because like Utah/UCLA the day before this is a great offensive battle. #6 at #10 in eFG%, #17 at #6 in 3PT%, #6 at #8 in assists. Also a great battle between Paige Bueckers (20.3 PPG, 48%! 3PT) and Marquette’s dual backcourt of Joran King (14.8 PPG) and Mackenzie Hare (14.7 PPG). If you can find a way to watch this, it’s really good.
#1 Houston (-3) at #10 BYU, 9 PM ET, ESPN. This came up second in the race for the Game of the Week and a part of me wishes it had won out. Actually, screw it.
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK, FOR REAL
#1 Houston (-3) at #10 BYU, 9 PM ET, ESPN. Technically, Auburn-Alabama on Wednesday beats this in everything, including FanMatch, Torvik’s ratings, and pretty much any sense of watchability. That game has a projected O/U of 168; this may not crack 140. But. BUT.
I just like this. This is a hugely, hugely impactful game in the Big 12 standings. Every team has a loss already, but the two conference leaders (Texas Tech and Kansas State) rank as the conference’s 8th and 11th best teams, respectively. That means the race is wide open. For Houston, this is a chance to reassert their dominance that looked inevitable three weeks ago. For BYU…well, here’s your biggest home game since playing #2 Gonzaga at home two weeks before COVID. Or maybe playing Kawhi at home in the Jimmer Year.
I’ve made the executive decision here; I am simply hoping both of these teams live up to it.
FOUR STARS
#16 Kentucky (-3) at #64 South Carolina, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. For all the hype this Kentucky team is getting, which I understand somewhat, I do feel a bit like I’ve been left in the dark. They are 2-2 against Quad 1 competition and have played a total of five Quad 1/2 games. They lost at home to UNC Wilmington. For all the love the offense is getting, their defense has allowed 1+ PPP in every single SEC game thus far. It’s a team that’s enjoyed a massive 3PT% advantage (+9%) and…hasn’t really done anything with it? Aside from beating UNC? What I’m saying is that I’m calling my shot: they have just a 45% chance of going 2-0 this week, and they’re going to lose either this one or to Arkansas on Saturday.
#44 Ohio State at #49 Nebraska (-2), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Another bubble battle between two teams with 11-seed resumes. Ohio State is 0-3 on the road this year and 1-5 against Quad 1/2 competition, but they did beat Alabama a long time ago. Nebraska has the win over Purdue and an interesting trend playing in their favor: they’re 3-3 against top 100 offenses.
#35 Xavier at #14 Creighton (-7), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. I mean…don’t look now, but Xavier has emerged from 4-5 to 10-8 and now has four Quad 1/2 wins. Creighton got off the mat Saturday in an exhausting 3OT battle. Given a projected 1-1 week for Seton Hall, this is their chance to get back to #2 in the Big East behind UConn.
THREE STARS
#89 Saint Joseph’s at #97 UMass (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Conference race eliminator. It looks like 1-3 are starting to settle in between Dayton/Richmond/Loyola Chicago, but 4th is firmly up for grabs in the Atlantic 10.
#46 Texas at #21 Oklahoma (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Another bubble team here goes on the road to play a team firmly in the field but perhaps in need of some more impressive metrics. Oklahoma sits at just 23rd in the NET despite the impressive 15-3 record, but given some lackadaisical outings against the dregs of their schedule it makes sense. Texas is not making the Tournament without pulling off a win in one of these big road games.
#11 Wisconsin (-6) at #93 Minnesota, 7 PM ET, BTN. Are you aware that Minnesota is 12-6 and 15-3 ATS? Now you are, so I don’t have to discuss this one any further.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 24
FIVE STARS
#5 Auburn at #8 Alabama (-2), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. This is a terrific Normies Game, but not for the uniforms. It’s because your average college basketball person - likely an employee of a major media outlet - will look at this line when it drops and say “how is unranked Alabama favored over a top 10 Auburn team who’s 6th in the NET?” It will be a discussion topic for about 30 minutes. Someone will point out that Auburn is 0-2 against Quad 1 and 16-0 against everyone else, while someone else will attempt to make the point that KenPom or NET or whatever is a cancer against basketball, because back in his day, we didn’t fall for these things.
If you can get past that, this is objectively the best game of the week. Auburn has a ton to prove and a million unknowns; they haven’t played a Quad 1 game since December 3 (App State) and they haven’t played a top 25 opponent since November 7 (Baylor). Alabama is way more battle-tested and just got embarrassed by Tennessee, but their defense is a horror show. At home post-COVID, Alabama is 26-3 and 16-13 ATS. With spreads under 10 points: 13-2. Road Auburn as an underdog post-COVID is 2-11. I’m not saying, I’m just saying. Also, it benefits my personal narratives, so.
#32 Colorado State at #52 Nevada (-1), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. I mean, this is a delightful battle between two NCAA Tournament hopefuls (one likely, one bubble). Both teams are super old and super experienced. Both teams are great at avoiding turnovers. Nevada’s defense is better, but Colorado State’s offense is a top-20 unit nationally. I think if I try and sell this one it’ll be an undersell, so stay up for it.
FOUR STARS
#47 Providence at #55 Seton Hall (-3), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. This is a must-win for Seton Hall to keep pace in the Big East race. A win here puts them at 7-2 BE, which is a pretty wild thing. The Bryce Hopkins injury has neutered Providence, who’s tracking for barely hanging onto the bubble. They really need this one. Desperation on both sides = entertaining hoops.
NCAAW: #57 Oklahoma at #5 Texas (-13.5), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Big on both sides, which means an entertaining battle. Kansas State sits all alone in first place at 7-0 in the Big 12, but Oklahoma (5-1) and Texas (5-2) are part of a five-team morass collectively identified as ‘next up’ when/if KSU slips up. Neither team has an outright star, really, but I like Madison Booker (14.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.8 APG), who has been quite impactful since Rori Harmon went out. Ayoka Lee is the Big 12 POTY, but Booker has an argument for runner-up.
NCAAW: #19 Maryland (-2.5) at #37 Michigan, 7 PM ET, BTN+. Neither of these teams is going to win the Big Ten, but both have real dreams of making the NCAA Tournament. Maryland should be in just fine, but Michigan’s status is pretty precarious at the moment. They need wins.
D3: #8 Trine at #9 Calvin (-1), 7:30 PM ET, streaming. We don’t get to do this often, but this is a big game in the D3 landscape between two of the division’s 10 best teams. Trine’s defense is a hyper-chaotic unit; 32% of all possessions feature either a steal or a block, per CBB Analytics. On the other end, Calvin represents a higher-variance style of offensive basketball: a lot of threes that run hot and cold. I think this is just intriguing above all.
#34 Mississippi State at #39 Florida (-3), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Stop being annoying, both of you. Quit being 2-3. I know you can’t both quit being 2-3 in the same game, but enough. You’re better than this. Look in the mirror, drink some water, and get back on the horse.
#30 Villanova at #41 St. John’s (-2), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. I don’t bet and never will, but I’m curious: has there been a more brutal useless buzzer-beater in modern history than Villanova’s on Saturday night to only lose by a point in their biggest game since Jay Wright retired? I would imagine not. This is another game where both teams badly need a win; 11-7 at 12-7 is pretty serious First Four territory.
#9 Illinois (-4) at #59 Northwestern, 9 PM ET, BTN. Northwestern’s brand of toiletball is disgusting enough to work in these types of games. It’s not outlandish. I’ll wait until the final 4-5 minutes to subject myself to any of this, to be honest.
#23 Utah (-1) at #57 Washington State, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Can we have a discussion about First Four Washington State? Again: not insane! They’re up to 53rd in NET, are 4-4 against Quad 1/2 competition, and have a home win over Arizona. I think they’re gotta go 3-2 in their next five here to get over the hump for a bit.
THREE STARS
#87 Samford (-2) at #139 Furman, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The projected score here is 87-85 and a Furman win here would represent the breaking of a 17-game win streak for Samford. Seems pretty huge!
#48 Drake (-6) at #167 Missouri State, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. I hope this one isn’t interesting. Drake appears to have turned a corner, which is huge because we want the Missouri Valley to get two teams in the field: Drake and Indiana State. ISU has the better at-large shot, but both need to keep winning.
#56 Kansas State at #12 Iowa State (-9), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I’m going to guess Kansas State’s run atop the Big 12 ends here, but it really does speak to how good Jerome Tang is that this stinky roster has led the Big 12 for even a single day.
#27 Colorado (-1) at #62 Washington, 11 PM ET, ESPNU. A very simple equation on both sides. A Colorado win keeps them pacing alongside the other five teams either at 5-2 or 5-3 in Pac-12 play. A Washington win avoids the full destruction of their NCAA Tournament case for another day.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 25
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-8.5) at #8 LSU, 8 PM ET, ESPN. Here’s one of the games of the year in college hoops, happily sitting on Big ESPN for all to see. This is arguably the single biggest one-on-one matchup of the year, too.
South Carolina presents Kamilla Cardoso (13.3 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.9 BPG), who has stepped right into the Aliyah Boston role without even a hint of a dropoff. With Cardoso on the court, the Gamecocks have outscored opponents by a truly insane 55.8 points per 100 possessions. I want that to sink in for a minute: 55.8 points per 100 possessions. In an average 70-possession game, without adjusting for opponent to make these stats even better, Cardoso-led South Carolina is 39 POINTS BETTER than their opponent. She may be the best defensive player in America.
LSU presents Angel Reese (19.9 PPG, 12.2 RPG), and it speaks to how good Reese has been in the past that she seems a little forgotten this year. An argument could be made that in this specific season, Aneesah Morrow (18.1 PPG, 9.8 RPG) and Flau’jae Johnson (13.2 PPG) have been a little bigger to the overall picture. But Reese is Reese, and when she’s on, there are not five players better than her in America. There might not be three.
D2: #6 Dallas Baptist at #4 West Texas A&M (-6.5), 8:30 PM ET, streaming. The D2 Game of the Week is right here. West Texas A&M won an absolute banger of a game on Saturday, defeating Eastern New Mexico 89-87 after blowing a 20-point second-half lead. Both of these teams have a terrific lead scorer. DBU has Cameron Kahn (20.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG), a legit D1 athlete who is dominating the D2 landscape at the moment. WTAMU has Larry Wise (19.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.6 APG), who plays bully-ball and gets 5.6 FTAs/4.3 drawn fouls per game.
WTAMU’s offense is the very best in America at the moment but their defense has been real bad, while DBU is a bit more well-rounded on both ends. The projected score here is 82-76, which means a fun one.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #40 Florida State at #18 Duke (-6.5), 6 PM ET, ACC Network. Huge game here for Florida State, who’s quietly on the bubble in a year where they were expected to do some pretty big things. FSU sits at 39th in NET, which isn’t bad on its face, but they’ve got a Quad 3 loss and are 2-4 against Top 100 opponents away from home. Duke is just 2-4 against Quad 1 comp but their SOS is very strong, so they’re fine.
#40 SMU at #71 North Texas (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I mean…it sounds wild, but is it time to talk about these maybe being the two best teams in the AAC? Since December 1:
I’ll believe that SMU number when I see it, but they’re inarguably rolling at the moment and have been incredible defensively. (Helped out a lot by opponents shooting 24% from deep since December 1, of course.) North Texas has also been incredible defensively but cannot buy a bucket for large stretches of games. I’m expecting something like 62-58 as a final here.
NCAAW: #48 Syracuse at #10 Notre Dame (-11.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. 16-2 Syracuse looks mighty impressive and they do have a pair of Quad 1 wins, but they’ve gone 6-1 in games decided by 7 or less, with an alarming three of those coming against opponents outside the top 80. Notre Dame has largely either whooped or been whooped, with 14 of their 17 games being decided by double digits.
NCAAW: #42 Miami at #25 North Carolina (-8.5), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. Several very similar ACC games on this night. This one excites me the least because I don’t think any of the conference’s ten best players are involved in this game, with the possible exception of UNC’s Alyssa Ustby, the third-best individual defender in the conference. (Hannah Hidalgo of Notre Dame and Tonie Morgan of Georgia Tech are likely a hair ahead.)
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #12 Gonzaga (-9.5) at #90 Santa Clara, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. The Gonzaga women are kind of in a similar position to the Gonzaga men: you really cannot lose games like this, but they’re not gimmes by any means. Santa Clara is 15-5 with a couple road wins over top 100 teams and would have a real bubble case with a win here.
NCAAW: #72 Georgia Tech at #13 Virginia Tech (-11.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a chance to see Elizabeth Kitley and Georgia Amoore play basketball.
#61 Grand Canyon (-3) at #128 Stephen F. Austin, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This is #1 at #2 in the WAC and has real stakes to it after Seattle handed Grand Canyon their first conference loss late Saturday night. GCU’s at-large hopes really need a win here, because a loss might fully kill them.
#63 San Francisco at #20 Gonzaga (-8), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Here is my shocking statement of the week: Gonzaga is probably fine. Wow! They’ll be an 8 or 9 seed and will be a team no one wants to draw, as is the standard.
D2: #27 Cal State Los Angeles at #25 Cal State San Bernardino (-8.5), 10:30 PM ET, streaming. Not sure why Massey’s line on this is so high, but this is 14-3 at 13-4. I wish it were between two elite offenses instead of two elite defenses, but such is life.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 26
FIVE STARS
#19 Michigan State at #11 Wisconsin (-4), 8 PM ET, FS1. This may be the least I have to say about a five-star game all season; it’s just kind of an obvious one to point at. The only thing worth pointing out is that Wisconsin has a top 5 offense per KenPom; it is their first top 25 offense since Frank Kaminsky left campus. It’s a big deal! Wisconsin is fun. Seriously.
NCAAW: #15 Colorado (-1.5) at #29 Oregon State, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. A very fun game for many reasons here in the ultra-competitive Pac-12, but I’d like to do a little segment called Raegan Beers Stats. The Oregon State star is somehow massively underappreciated! She’s:
One of four high-major players in America averaging 18+ PPG and 10+ RPG (Elizabeth Kitley, Kiki Iriafen, Angel Reese).
One of nine high-major players averaging 1+ steal and 1+ block per game.
Draws the eighth-most fouls of any high-major player at 5.6 per game.
Tied for fifth nationally with 3.9 offensive rebounds per game.
Fourth nationally in eFG% (68.7%) among players with 10+ field goal attempts.
Fourth nationally in points in the paint with 14.8 PPG.
Sixth nationally in second-chance points with 4.8 PPG.
What a player.
FOUR STARS
#89 Saint Joseph’s at #86 St. Bonaventure (-4), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Atlantic 10 eliminator. Both are among the five (!) teams projected to finish in a five-way tie for fourth at 10-8. They’re also both 2-3 in conference play.
D2: #14 Fort Lewis at #8 Colorado Mesa, 9:30 PM ET, streaming. Not every game I cover here is a winner but this comes pretty darn close. Two teams that average 84+ PPG, with Mesa leading the nation in 2PT% at an astounding 64.6%. They also attempt more threes than twos, while Fort Lewis is maybe better at scoring one-on-one than any other team out there. Get ready to learn about Mesa’s Mac Riniker, who has some wild per-game stats: 14.8 PPG on 76% 2PT/41% 3PT, 5.5 RPG, 2.4 SPG, and 1.1 BPG. The closest guy to him in D-1 would be Seton Hall’s Kadary Richmond, which is a massive compliment.
NCAAW: #23 Washington State at #21 USC (-2.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
NCAAW: #58 Washington at #9 UCLA (-13.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
NCAAW: #6 Utah (-7.5) #75 Oregon, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. We’re at a point where pretty much every Pac-12 women’s game has a reason for watchability. A truly insane conference that best resembles the Big 12 on the men’s side.
THREE STARS
NAIA: #13 Oregon Tech at #2 College of Idaho (-10.5), 9:30 PM ET, streaming. I know what you’re thinking, which is that I’ve lost my mind a bit by throwing this one on here at the end. You wouldn’t be wrong, of course, but hear me out. Oregon Tech scores 87 PPG and shoots 38% from three. College of Idaho has a fascinating defensive structure that I’d best label as a shifting 1-2-2 zone. It won them the national title last year and may do the same this spring. You can do way worse than this.