Week 12 Weekend Watchlist: The Big 12's Stressful Saturday

ahhhhh get anxious

The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend

Hope you guys like basketball. In terms of remaining days on the calendar, this Saturday has the most Division I versus Division I men’s basketball games left to play: 149. It’s a pretty intense number to deal with, knowing that 298 of the sport’s 364 teams will have something to play for this Saturday amidst everything else they have going on. But! I do not think this is the best Saturday left in the season. Fear not.

In terms of sheer number of great games - those that are serious contenders for the A level - I would advise the reader to carve out February 8, 15, and 22 as the best remaining Saturdays of the season. In terms of pure volume of good games, lock in on February 1, 8, and 22. Alternately: do you want a night where every game, relatively speaking, is pretty good? Lock in for February 7, 11, and March 5.

By these metrics, it doesn’t make January 25 sound all that great, but we have several great games, as I’ll note, as well as a solid class of undercards. January 26, meanwhile, is one of the better days left in the women’s season. We’ve got a lot of options, even if we may be missing the elite ones everyone dreams of.

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SATURDAY, JANUARY 25

A+ GAME OF THE WEEK

#3 Houston (-1) at #7 Kansas, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. This game could end up being in the neighborhood of 59-54 or worse, so your mileage may vary. But I ended up placing this tops because I don’t really know how it’s gonna go.

Against top-100 competition, these are two of the seven best defenses in America. They both rank top 10 in opponent 2PT%. Both are great on the boards. Both have significantly lower turnover rates on offense than you’d expect. The style of shots that both defenses desire to give up are exactly the ones the opposing offense takes. On one hand, you could say each offense will be comfortable; on the other, the same goes for each defense.

The other side of the coin: against top-100 competition, Houston has ranked in the top 25 offensively. It’s not been pretty, but their shot volume is so immense that it’s really hard to blow them off a court unless you’re white hot from three. Kansas: 105th and completely unable to get to the foul line or the rim consistently at all. I lean Houston by 3-5 points, but it’s hard to not think of this the same way we did last year with the Houston/Kansas game at the Phog…which was a KU blowout and a temporary season-saver. The downside for Kansas: it does kinda remind me of the other Houston/Kansas game last year, too.

A GAMES

NCAAW: #21 Michigan State at #18 Michigan (-4), 12 PM ET, BTN. This is huge for a lot of reasons in both directions. Neither MSU nor Michigan is winning the Big Ten this year, but MSU is solidly in the battle for a protected 1-4 seed, which means home games for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Michigan’s in that battle as well. Julia Ayrault (+14.1 BPM) is the single best player in the game, but Michigan likely has #2 and #3 in Olivia Olson and Syla Swords. Fun way to begin the day.

#6 Tennessee at #2 Auburn (-8), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN. This receives a bit of an incomplete grade. I had heard privately that Johni Broome was likely to play but be on a minutes restriction, then Bruce Pearl came out and said he genuinely did not know if Broome would be able to play. Even a Broome that can give Auburn 15 minutes is pretty important.

Without Broome, Auburn is still an excellent team, but the way they play changes significantly. They take far more threes (46% of all shots), get less pressure at the rim, and struggle on the boards. If that’s the version of Auburn Tennessee draws, they have a very real shot here. If Broome is all the way back, I think it would be very surprising to see Tennessee win.

B GAMES

#23 Mississippi State (-4) at #80 South Carolina, 1 PM ET, SEC Network. Last year, South Carolina experienced tremendous close game luck, going 11-3 in games decided by 6 or less. This year: not so much. 1-4, and with close home losses to both Auburn and Florida. They’re basically eight points away from being 3-3 in the SEC and Lamont Paris getting giant amounts of national coverage for defeating Auburn and Florida. As 2023-24 went, so goes the opposite in 2024-25.

#14 Michigan State (-6) at #83 Rutgers, 1:30 PM ET, CBS. We’re nearing a “how Tom Izzo fixed Michigan State” news cycle if we aren’t there already. Here is how: in the month of November, they shot 21.6% from three…and 59% from two, while dominating the boards and the free throw battle. Since then, they’re shooting 34.3% from three while dominating the boards and the free throw battle. I don’t think opponents will continue to shoot 27% from deep, as they have, but people way overreacted to a once-in-a-generation bad 3PT start to the year for MSU. They’re clearly very good.

#4 Iowa State (-9) at #55 Arizona State, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. True story: at Iowa State, TJ Otzelberger is only 5-4 against teams ranked 51-60 at KenPom. Does this mean anything at all? No, but I was curious.

#19 Kentucky (-2) at #47 Vanderbilt, 2:30 PM ET, ESPN. Vanderbilt has their signature win of the season locked up thanks to defeating Tennessee last weekend, but I don’t know that people have fully caught up to them being a genuinely good and dangerous basketball team. Since moving Chris Manon to the starting lineup on November 29, they’ve played like a top-40 team in the sport.

#15 Texas A&M (-1) at #39 Texas, 2:30 PM ET, ESPN. Boy, I do not enjoy doing this, but I think we’re underrating Texas a little. Last 10 games: 6-4, yes, but quietly playing like a top-25 team and shooting 37% from three. Something to monitor as their desperation increases.

#36 Georgia at #5 Florida (-11), 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Here is a thing I wrote on Florida earlier this week that I would recommend reading if you’re a paid subscriber. By the way, sign up so you sound smarter than other people on occasion talking about basketball.

How long can you avoid the Regression Monster?

NCAAW: #2 UConn (-17) at #36 Creighton, 5:30 PM ET, FOX. This is guaranteed to be UConn’s closest game by point spread until the Round of 32, if not possibly the Sweet Sixteen. Not a ton going on in the Big East. Still, Creighton takes and makes a lot of threes, and a sudden heater from deep could make this very fun.

#18 Ole Miss at #31 Missouri (-1), 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Here’s another regression candidate…in both directions. In SEC play, Ole Miss’s opponents have shot 24.5% from deep. Won’t last. Then again, in SEC play, Mizzou made 10+ threes four games in a row after doing it four times in the entirety of a 13-game non-con slate. Also won’t last.

#35 UConn at #45 Xavier (-2), 8 PM ET, FOX. I’ll hold off on re-linking my Regression Monster article. Just know this: Xavier shot 13-24 from deep in the first game and still lost.

#25 Saint Mary’s (-6) at #94 Washington State, 8 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. One of my favorite tweets still in existence is my friend Cam’s:

Saint Mary’s has 17 ‘kill shots’ (10-0 runs or larger) per EvanMiya this year, good enough to tie for 19th-best in the nation, but their kill shots last a long time. Per CBB Analytics, the average 10-0 (or greater) Saint Mary’s run lasts 3:58, the sixth-longest in the sport among the 36 teams with 15+ kill shots. (The average is around 3:28.) I mention this for one unfortunate reason: Washington State has given up 23 8-0 or greater runs this year.

#44 Cincinnati at #38 BYU (-5), 10:30 PM ET, ESPN2. It speaks to the power of Cincinnati’s defense that they’ve allowed just one 10-0 run all season. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, it also speaks to the fact they’re wasting an elite defense. Since November ended: 68th overall, 232nd offensively, shooting 27.7% from 3.

C GAMES

#70 Georgetown at #89 Providence (-1), 12:30 PM ET, FOX. Did you know that Georgetown is Big East Cincinnati? Since December 1: 193rd offense, 16th defense. This could be an ugly one.

#291 Howard at #167 Norfolk State (-10), 12:30 PM ET, ESPNU. Interesting and unusual position for Norfolk to be in, being a potential 10+ point favorite. This is the 39th time in 12 seasons they’ve been a double-digit fave (on paper) against a MEAC opponent. They’re 36-2…with one of those losses being on the 13th to Morgan State.

#149 Miami OH at #102 Akron (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is basically the MAC regular season title game. Unfortunately, this also means it’s the game that decides which poor sap gets the 1 seed and loses in the MAC Tournament semifinals.

#134 Cornell at #124 Princeton (-2), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Cornell is experiencing some tremendous hot-and-cold action right now: 41.3% from deep since December 1…and an opponent 3PT% of 40%.

#153 Illinois State at #74 Bradley (-10), 2 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Bradley update: sitting at +12.3% from three this year, which would be the highest full season 3PT% delta since 2015-16 Michigan State (+12.4%). I mean, maybe. I just don’t think you can sustain this forever.

#53 New Mexico (-3) at #99 UNLV, 3 PM ET, FOX. New Mexico needs a win possibly more than anyone else playing Saturday, save for both Cincinnati and BYU. 16-4 and 8-1 in the MWC is great, but this is the exact time both of the last two seasons that they collapsed down the stretch. You gotta field the grounder, fellas.

NCAAW: #7 Kansas State (-17) at #53 Colorado, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. No Ayoka Lee for Kansas State for a while, which really smarts. They’re 17 points worse per 100 possessions when she’s off the court. This still means they’re really good, but more like 9th-13th than the 3rd-5th team they were trending towards.

#209 Colgate at #239 American (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Essentially the Patriot League title game, which is likely for a 16 seed, but hey.

#76 TCU at #68 UCF (-4), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. TCU’s at-large case is probably fully cooked, but UCF intrigues me. A win here gets them to 13-6, 4-4 B12 with two Quad 1 road wins and an opening night defeat of Texas A&M that’s aging very well. More a fringe case than a true bubble team, but a path exists.

#26 Oregon (-5) at #95 Minnesota, 4 PM ET, BTN. Travel makes this interesting, but also the part where Minnesota is kinda rounding into form a little? Since Mark Mitchell re-entered the starting lineup on December 9, they’ve played like a top-75 team and play a very, very slow tempo that can induce some odd outcomes.

#1 Duke (-13) at #75 Wake Forest, 4:30 PM ET, ESPN. Speaking of resurgence cases: Wake Forest! Now 7-1 in the ACC. Since shoving Ty-Laur Johnson to the starting lineup on NYE they’re the 43rd-best team in the nation and dominating the boards.

#28 Baylor (-2) at #82 Utah, 4:30 PM ET, ESPN2. It’s very quiet, but Baylor’s resume is alarmingly thin: two Quad 1 wins (St. John’s and Arizona State, both in OT) and a 3-6 record against Q1/Q2 overall. But! They have been really unlucky, as opponents are shooting 37.9% from deep.

#105 South Alabama at #107 Troy (-3), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Potential Sun Belt title game. You know I love the Sun Belt this year.

#116 Wofford at #103 Samford (-4), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Ford-off. It’s a Ford-off. This is a potential SoCon title game preview.

#58 Santa Clara at #63 Oregon State (-2), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Sneaky huge game here. Santa Clara’s horrendous start to the year has turned from 3-5 into 14-7 with wins over McNeese and Gonzaga. A win here and they’re in Actual Real At-Large Talks. Meanwhile, Oregon State’s defense has cratered thanks to weak interior protection.

#104 Middle Tennessee at #119 Louisiana Tech (-4), 6:30 PM ET, ESPNU. Since 2021, MTSU is the #1 team in the nation - seriously! - in cover rate at home (34-13 ATS). Everywhere else: 31-34-2. Is the Murphy Center a home court powerhouse?

#67 Florida State at #78 Stanford (-3), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. I strongly, strongly doubt either of these teams make the Tournament, but a Stanford win gets them to 6-3 ACC, a sentence I didn’t think I’d say this year. (FSU would be 5-4.)

#141 Charleston at #135 Elon (-3), 7 PM ET, Flo Sports. Awful to put this on a network for the Progressive Insurance Cinematic Universe. With a win here, Elon moves to co-favorites to win the CAA at Torvik. Elon! Not the guy.

#41 Oklahoma at #54 Arkansas (-2), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Remember the halcyon days of January 1, when both of these teams were AP ranked? Boy, that was fun. Anyway, here’s reality: if Oklahoma loses this game, their projected SEC record is 5-13. Arkansas, with a loss, would be staring down 4-14 as their most likely. Dark days.

NCAAW: #9 West Virginia (-12) at #54 Arizona, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. My concern with WVU is this: it’s about to be February and this will be the fifth Quad 1 or 2 opponent they’ve played all season. They’re 1-3 against these teams and 15-0 against everyone else. They remind me a bit of the old Wichita State teams with amazing metrics and no resume.

#132 Cal State Northridge at #64 UC San Diego (-8), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. The Big West is probably still a two-team league, but Northridge has the best shot to make it three.

#46 San Diego State at #71 Nevada (-1), 10 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. It happens pretty rarely, but San Diego State has been putrid as a road dog: 3-11 straight-up, 5-9 ATS post-COVID.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 26

A GAMES

NCAAW: #8 Duke (-1.5) at #14 Georgia Tech, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. There’s a little gotta-have-it factor for Georgia Tech here. Duke is 7-1 ACC and GA Tech 5-3. This matters not for the title race (Notre Dame is running away with that) but rather for those protected 1-4 seeds that get a double bye in the ACCT. Against top-100 comp, Duke has shot very well from three…which doesn’t match what I know of their roster. Then again, they’ve dominated the boards, have been superior on turnovers, and are better on the interior. My X-factor here is Tech freshman Dani Carnegie, who returned from injury on Thursday and dropped 29 on Virginia, a season high.

Washington Football Team at Eagles, 3 PM ET, FOX. Look, I’m still a bit heartbroken, but if the Lions had to lose to anyone I can handle the WFT. Very fun, very likable group, their fans have suffered a LOT over the last 30 years. Wouldn’t be upset by seeing Jayden Daniels in the Super Bowl. That being said, this is probably a whooping. (Eagles 31, WFT 18)

NCAAW: #3 Texas (-9.5) at #19 Ole Miss, 3 PM ET, ESPN. Texas was probably somewhat fortunate to escape Tennessee on a night where the Lady Vols shot the lights out and generated way more from the perimeter. My problem with this matchup: it feels like Texas is playing worse Texas. Ole Miss relies heavily on OREBs, forced turnovers, and perimeter defense to beat better opponents. These are all things Texas simply does better, and Ole Miss doesn’t shoot or hit threes at the rate I’d really look for. But! Anything can happen.

Bills at Chiefs, 6:30 PM ET, CBS. There’s not a single men’s game going on at this time and just one women’s (which is covered later as alternate programming). Here are my thoughts on this game: it would be utterly delicious for the Bills to win this game. Beyond my wildest dreams. The heart’s prediction is Bills 25-24. The brain’s prediction, which understands that we are in Hell and we have no way out of here anytime soon, acknowledges that the Chiefs will win this game 24-22 as the Bills fumble the snap on a field goal to win it.

B GAMES

#22 Maryland (-4) at #60 Indiana, 12 PM ET, CBS. Here’s my Indiana Thing I should mention: we are all talking about their resume now, and not what it might look like in three weeks. I prefer the predictive to the reactive because one of those two is more reliable. Indiana might be 14-6 with the 44th-ranked WAB right now, equivalent to a First Four bid. On February 12, after five straight games against top-20 competition, you’re most likely looking at a 15-10 team that’s lost seven of nine and has a 5-10 record against top-100 competition.

NCAAW: #32 Florida State at #10 North Carolina (-11), 12 PM ET, ACC Network. Florida State is quite fun, has an excellent offense, is 15-4, and makes most games exciting. They’ve also managed zero wins against a team higher than 44th in NET. Gotta find one somewhere to feel comfy.

#50 Nebraska at #21 Wisconsin (-8), 1 PM ET, BTN. This actually projects to be pretty even in the rebounding and turnover departments, so it’ll come down entirely to if Wisconsin hits threes or not. That’s what makes this game so dangerous. Based on to-date stats against top-100 competition, Wisconsin is expected to take 49% of their shots from deep. That’s great if they shoot 12-27 from three as they did versus Arizona. Less great if they go 5-22, as they did against Ohio State.

NCAAW: #22 Vanderbilt at #20 Alabama (-3.5), 2 PM ET, SEC Network. Surprisingly, post-Sarah Ashlee Barker injury, Alabama has mostly held up well thanks to the terrific play of Zaay Green. I feel like this is as dead-even as it says, so I lean home court.

NCAAW: #4 UCLA (-10.5) at #23 Maryland, 2 PM ET, NBC. Interest in this is heavily dependent on Shyanne Sellers being back. If she can go, Maryland will have a good shot. If not, this is a UCLA blowout.

#49 Northwestern at #11 Illinois (-10), 3 PM ET, BTN. I’m attempting to create a Toilet Metric that measures just how painful an offense can be to watch at the highest levels. Northwestern would have its own category: boring, but not actually that bad, but your shot chart (12 seconds or less only) looks like this.

NCAAW: #11 Ohio State (-4.5) at #34 Nebraska, 3 PM ET, BTN+. Nebraska is interesting. They’ve played really well against top-100 competition - Torvik rates them top-25! - and figure to have a serious rebounding edge here. They also might get smoked on turnovers and at the rim.

NCAAW: #25 Baylor at #12 TCU (-8), 3 PM ET, ESPN2. TCU’s offense is special and spaces the floor very well, but this game will be mostly about Sedona Prince inside. Baylor has no one within four inches of her to guard, and she could be dominant here.

C GAMES

#106 UAB at #40 Memphis (-12), 1 PM ET, ESPN2. Memphis seems very invested in losing another game as soon as possible. Nothing new. I’m more interested in UAB. Since sending Greg Gordon packing nine games ago, they’ve played like a top-70 team with a top-25 offense, posting the 7th-highest OREB% and a top-25 offensive TO%. It’s actually a pretty tantalizing combo against a Memphis side addicted to turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds.

#112 FAU at #57 North Texas (-9), 2 PM ET, ESPNU. North Texas is dramatically under-discussed at the moment. Top-60 team with a top-50 defense, legitimate powerful lead scorer in Brenen Lorient, and has somehow been tremendously unlucky in AAC play by giving up a 40% 3PT%. If they get in they feel like an 11/12 seed that finds its way to the Round of 32.

NCAAW: #42 Louisville (-2.5) at #70 Virginia, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Louisville wins this and they’re 15-6, 8-2 ACC heading into a home date with Notre Dame next Sunday. Seen worse.

NCAAW: #55 Florida at #65 Auburn (-1.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Feels like an at-large eliminator even if that might be dramatic at this stage.

NCAAW: #82 Northern Iowa at #81 Missouri State (-3.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Must-win for Northern Iowa to stay in the MVC hunt even tangentially.

NCAAW: #76 Texas A&M at #15 LSU (-18.5), 4 PM ET, SEC Network. Meh. It’s an option. A&M has beaten Ole Miss and Kentucky at home.

NCAAW: #44 Virginia Tech at #26 NC State (-8.5), 6 PM ET, ACC Network. Alright, if you really, truly hate the NFL, here is your counter-programming. Virginia Tech in year one post-Kenny Brooks is good, solid, and looks an awful lot like a 10 seed. Their main issue: no obvious #1 scorer that you’re really afraid of. NCSU has several, headlined by Aziaha James, but also has struggled in games against quality competition offensively thanks to an inability to generate second chances and seems to not always know how or where to get easy buckets. Fun if nothing else.