Week 13 Watchlist: I Can't Stop Thinking About Houston/Kansas So We're Gonna Talk Houston/Kansas

Sorry for smashing the Buffalo Wild Wings overtime button a little too hard

The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week

I mean, what a game. I went to see some friends I hadn’t seen since autumn at a restaurant. Presumably, most people there were there to watch the Tennessee/Auburn game on one of the numerous gigantic televisions. We were too. And yet: I was so sucked into this Houston/Kansas affair that I did not realize the Tennessee game had started or was even on various televisions in the restaurant until five or six minutes in.

Let’s recap:

1. There were four giant runs that swung the game each way. First was Kansas going on an 11-0 run to open up a 10-point first half lead. Then, after allowing KU to make it 40-31 out of the locker room, Houston went on a 17-2 run of their own to go up 48-42. Kansas responded to that with a 13-2 run to go up 55-50 with seven minutes left. Then, as we’ll cover, Houston had one final run, heaving against the wall, to create magic.

2. To even force overtime to begin with, Houston had to overcome a serious hole. Houston went on a 17-2 run to open the second half, peaked at about 80% win expectancy, then watched as Kansas cruised back into the game. They led 66-60 with 1:31 to go after a Flory Bidunga dunk. The next three possessions for each team: Milos Uzan floater (66-62), Kansas shot clock violation, Milos Uzan floater (66-64), Kansas five-second violation, J’Wan Roberts foul on the floor, Roberts 2-2 at the FT line (66-66). This was AFTER Houston missed eight free throws in a row to open the second half. Lowest win expectancy: 5.7%.

3. Houston led with 1:52 to go in the first overtime. They did! Everyone is forgetting this. J’Wan Roberts made an absurd hook shot to go up 73-72.

4. Kansas went on a 7-0 run immediately after. Bidunga dunk, Rylan Griffen three, two misses on the same possession, and two more Griffen free throws. With 20 seconds left, LJ Cryer missed a three, Dajuan Harris got the rebound, and Kansas headed to the free throw line up 79-73 with 18.3 seconds to play. Houston has a 0.4% chance of winning this game, per KenPom. Here’s where we have fun.

5. Let’s outline all of the insane things that had to happen in the following sequence.

• DaJuan Harris misses both free throws. As a career 72% free throw shooter or thereabouts, we’d put these odds at about 8% for this event to occur. We’re already in 1-out-of-12 simulations territory.

• Houston has to get the rebound. Less absurd. Per CBB Analytics, Houston has rebounded 88.5% of missed free throws this year. Now at about 7% for this exact sequence, or 1-in-14.

• Milos Uzan has to drive the length of the court, go under the basket without fouling, and not turn the ball over on a pretty difficult pass to Emanuel Sharp. No easy estimation of this one. Uzan’s turnover rate this year is just 12.6%, terrific for a point guard, but for that pass to find any pair of hands wearing black uniforms was a little fortunate. Assume that about 88% of the time, this is not a turnover, I guess. 6% odds.

• Emanuel Sharp has to hit a difficult semi-fadeaway three from 25-26 feet. Sharp is one of the best deep shooters in America, currently making 44.8% of his numerous threes he gets up each night, but this is a far harder shot than anyone’s given credit for. Sharp is fading away, has a defender immediately in his face, and HAS TO HIT THIS SHOT for anything after to matter. Based on year-to-date stats, applying a minor penalty for extra distance, we’d expect Sharp to hit this shot about 42% of the time. That’s still wildly impressive, but it’s still not technically the expected outcome. Down to 2.5% odds, or 1-in-40.

• Houston has to successfully avoid committing a foul on the first inbound. I have no odds for this but Kansas had to call a timeout because they couldn’t get the ball in. This really doesn’t happen as often as you’d think, but being extremely charitable here, we’ll say that this happens maybe 30% of the time. 0.75% odds, 1-in-133.

• Houston has to steal the ball on the second inbound. On one hand, Houston has forced turnovers on 23% of opponent possessions this year, the 10th-highest rate in America. That’s very high. On the other hand, Houston essentially never has to press. They pressed for 12 possessions in the entirety of the 2023-24 season, 16 in 2022-23, and 10 this year. Out of 38 possessions, four (10.5%) resulted in an opponent turning the ball over. The number of times teams turn the ball over in this situation is far lower than you’d think; Synergy gives the estimated TO% at 16.7% here. If that’s the case, Houston’s sequence here is now at 0.13% odds, or 1-in-769.

• Mylik Wilson, who gets the ball, has to make a three to tie the game. Houston had to have so many things go right, a sequence of events with what I’m estimating as a 1-in-769 (or so) shot of happening, and all it gave them was a 7.2% chance of eventually winning the game after this turnover. THEY STILL HAD TO GET THREE MORE POINTS. To do this, the ball did not end up in the hands of LJ Cryer (52 made threes), Emanuel Sharp (47), Milos Uzan (23), or Terrance Arceneaux (18). The ball is in the hands of Mylik Wilson, the fifth-best shooter (by made threes; sixth by attempts) on Houston’s roster. Wilson’s career shooting numbers - CAREER, MEANING FIVE FULL SEASONS - are 61-187, or 32.6%. He’s at 10-20 this year, but over the last three seasons, Wilson is 19-61 (31.1%) from deep. He has made fewer threes than Norchad Omier. EvanMiya rates Wilson’s true 3PT% talent at 32.2%. If that’s accurate, this total sequence of events - which lasted 14 seconds of game time and about 25 days in real life - had a 0.04% chance of happening, or 1-in-2,485. By the way, all this did was send the game to double overtime.

6. Where a J’Wan Roberts made free throw and an Emanuel Sharp three gave Houston an 83-79 lead. Zeke Mayo clawed back two points. Fine. How about Milos Uzan, the guy who kicked this whole thing off, to give Houston the 86-81 lead and functionally the winning points of the game?

Game of the Year. GAME OF THE YEAR. If we get a single second weekend game this good, I’ll be over the moon.

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MONDAY, JANUARY 27

THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEK

#4 Iowa State (-2) at #17 Arizona, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN. I think, and will not go back to check, that this is the first Monday A+ Game of the Week of the season. I won’t say that it won’t happen again, either, because it may happen again next week given Iowa State’s next road matchup. Anyway!

I love this one despite the late start. For one, these are two of the seven most paint-points reliant offenses in America, per Synergy…with two defenses that have tremendous rim protection and very high havoc rates. The way that each gets to their logical conclusion of choice is much different. Iowa State’s hyper-pressure on the perimeter has been dialed down a bit this year, but they remain the very best in the sport at post denial and pressuring opposing bigs into bad decisions.

Arizona, meanwhile, does not bother with post doubles or high pressure for the most part. They’re confident their bigs can hold up 1-on-1, and few teams have had the goods to challenge that assertion. Iowa State actually wants this to be played fast, because Arizona’s main defensive weakness at this time is in transition. On the flip side, the best way to attack ISU’s defense is to pounce on your 4-on-3 opportunities. This style is susceptible to passes to the dunker spot, where Arizona (particularly Trey Townsend and KJ Lewis) has thrived all year. Fascinating chess match, and I’d be lying to you if I claimed to know the outcome. (My guess is Arizona 76-73.)

A GAME

NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-13) at #17 Tennessee, 7 PM ET, ESPN. I have a serious stubbornness with regards to the Lady Vols. They’re a team with four losses. These are to the four best teams they’ve faced…by a total of eight points. They are clearly very good indeed and have played like a borderline top 10 team over the last ten games, per Torvik. They’re going to get one eventually.

B GAMES

#45 Penn State at #18 Michigan (-8), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Michigan got stomped through the ground by Purdue, which is why they’re only favored by eight and not 10. My problem is not with that; it is with them currently running a -7.9 turnover margin per 100 in conference play. That feels severely limiting come March if it’s not fixed.

#58 McNeese (-7) at #170 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is McNeese’s best remaining shot to lose a conference game; win this and you may well be looking at a 26-5, 20-0 Southland team. My dream matchup at this time is 12-seed McNeese drawing 5-seed Memphis.

NCAAW: #39 Indiana (PK) at #45 Washington, 9 PM ET, BTN+. Both of these teams are in gotta-have-it territory. Sayvia Sellers of Washington is fabulous, as is Elle Ladine, but they need help on defense badly. Indiana just feels incomplete.

#33 UCLA (-1) at #67 USC, 10 PM ET, FS1. I think we need to begin tangling with the thought of USC perhaps sneaking in on Selection Sunday into the First Four. The home loss to Cal looks awful, as does their Saint Mary’s demolition, but they now own road wins over Illinois and Nebraska and have played like a top-30 team for almost two months.

C GAMES

NCAAW: #30 Mississippi State (-9) at #82 Missouri, 8 PM ET, SEC Network. Needed an NCAAW game for this tier; this is the best of the rest.

#64 Iowa at #30 Ohio State (-8), 8 PM ET, FS1. If this is it for Fran McCaffery, and steam seems to be building in that direction, I do think you have to tip the cap to a great run. Eight Tournaments (including 2020 had it happened) in the last 12 years, numerous elite offenses, a Big Ten Tournament championship, the school’s first NCAA Tournament wins since 2001, etc. He’ll be dramatically underrated in retrospectives, but he’s been excellent.

#298 Texas Southern at #283 Alabama State (-3), 8:30 PM ET, streaming. The best of SWACtion on this Monday, but you gotta pay $15 to watch it.

#101 NC State at #1 Duke (-22), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN. Duke has three (3) games the rest of the way with a <90% chance of winning: Clemson (Feb. 8), Illinois (Feb. 22), road UNC (Mar. 8). This is not one of them, but you’ll get to see DJ Burns highlights.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 28

A GAME

#22 Kentucky at #6 Tennessee (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is a real, true stat: Kentucky and Oklahoma are the only teams in the SEC, and on Tennessee’s remaining schedule, to rank outside of the top 150 in opponent 2PT%. This Kentucky defense, at 82nd, is the worst Tennessee has drawn since December 31 (Norfolk). Rowdy crowd, Kentucky team that can’t stop much of anything, Tennessee team that might blow them out in the boards and turnover departments…this has a real recipe for Kentucky to end up looking bad. Which is why it’s my duty to report Tennessee only wins by 6.

B GAMES

#19 St. John’s (-7) at #77 Georgetown, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Georgetown rates out about nine spots worse when all Q4 games are removed, which goes against my traditional Ed Cooley notes but is worth remembering. Maybe they’re just not ready.

#73 Wake Forest at #25 Louisville (-10), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Wake, on the other hand, rates 54th in America with all Q4 games removed. Oddly enough, this is by way of having the ninth-best defense in the sport versus Q1-Q3, which is not at all what I would’ve guessed in October. But! At the same time, they’re shooting 25.8% from three against Q1-Q3. As explored many times on here, a number that low very rarely holds. Keep an eye on Forbes and crew going forward.

#43 Oklahoma at #16 Texas A&M (-8), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Oklahoma currently sits at 66% to make the NCAA Tournament, per Torvik’s Tourneycast. Now, we may not all love forward-thinking tools like this. But this is a team currently favored in two (2) games the rest of the way with an expected SEC record of 6-12. 66% feels high!

#26 Baylor at #31 BYU (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Versus Q1-Q3: Baylor 42nd, BYU 29th. More importantly, both of these defenses are bad and both teams really need the win to feel better about their resumes.

#38 North Carolina at #34 Pittsburgh (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Pitt gives off alarmingly strong paper tiger vibes to me. If you only took Quad 4 games, which Pitt is 5-0 in, they’ve played like a top-15 team. Against all other opponents, they’re 8-6 and play at the level of a Nebraska. Their defense just isn’t there.

#60 Oregon State at #13 Gonzaga (-10), 11 PM ET, ESPN2. Gonzaga is getting the paper tiger charges as is standard but I don’t really buy it. They roughly play at the same level regardless of competition. Is the defense a problem? Yeah, but the offense remains the same nasty unit it usually is.

C GAMES

#78 South Carolina at #41 Georgia (-7), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. It’s been a while since I’ve shared the Schedule Adjusted Shot Volume Index, i.e., blending overall efficiency with the more controllable stats (FTAs, TOs, OREBs, and 2PT%). Georgia ranks 26th despite allowing a 28% 3PT% in Q1-Q3 games. Why? They’re shooting 29.8% themselves. This is a fantastic interior defense, though I don’t know what else they give you.

#203 Toledo at #172 Ohio (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Probably just for third in the MAC, but we all know that being third in the MAC means you’re in great position to eventually win the conference tourney.

#35 VCU (-5) at #112 Saint Louis, 8 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Openly rooting for Saint Louis here because it throws the A10 race into predictive chaos. George Mason and VCU would be projected to split the title at 14-4; Dayton, Saint Joe’s, and Saint Louis would all be projected to finish in a three-way tie for third at 11-7.

#91 Minnesota at #15 Michigan State (-13), 8 PM ET, Peacock. I still rate Illinois a hair higher, but every Michigan State win furthers their chokehold on the Big Ten’s regular season race.

#66 Dayton at #95 St. Bonaventure (-1), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. If Saint Louis and Saint Bonaventure both win, this would be the projected top six. Very fun!

#12 Marquette (-7) at #83 Butler, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. This and the St. John’s game are the same thing. I’d imagine one of these two is close and the road team wins by a point; the other is a semi-blowout. (Probably this one.)

#53 Cincinnati at #89 Utah (-1), 10 PM ET, CBSSN. There are many things better to do with your life than watch these two offenses at 10 PM Eastern.

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 29

A GAMES

#14 Wisconsin at #21 Maryland (-3), 7 PM ET, BTN. Bizarre game. I don’t know that I buy either of these teams fully, but here we are, this being a legitimate top-25 battle that means a lot both ways. Wisconsin is 0-3 against the three top-25 defenses they’ve played but Maryland’s coming off a wild road win at Indiana that probably drained them a bit. I won’t be surprised if Wisconsin leads at halftime but Maryland wins the actual game by 1-5 points.

#9 Alabama at #23 Mississippi State (-1), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. I’m telling you that not enough people are talking up this Mississippi State team. 12th best against Q1-Q3, +6.8 OREB margin per 100, a legitimate star in Josh Hubbard, a stout lineup of two-way contributors. They remind me strongly of some of the older Buzz Williams Marquette teams: not exactly fun, but much better than the surface-level numbers claim.

B GAMES

NCAAW: #23 Maryland (-8.5) at #61 Penn State, 7 PM ET, BTN+. Maryland’s now lost three in a row (albeit to three top ten teams) and is flagging a bit, which means this is prime territory for Penn State to come in and lose a game by five points.

#3 Houston (-7) at #48 West Virginia, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I’m going to talk about that Houston game for the rest of my life. Sue me. I think that this is an awful matchup for WVU; Houston projects to get around 7-10 more offensive rebounds and win the turnover battle by 3-4, which means WVU has to shoot the lights out (or Houston has to have a stinker) to make the numbers make sense. WVU matches up a lot better with a Kansas or an Arizona than they do a Houston.

#2 Auburn (-12) at #68 LSU, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. I’m playing two sides of the Body Blow Theory here. I think it could work in Tennessee’s favor because they’re probably really thankful to get a home game after that Auburn debacle; it might not work as well for Auburn going on the road. Still, this should be a relatively normal 82-67 win or something.

#105 Northern Iowa at #74 Drake (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Drake has played like a top-50 team against Q1-Q3 competition this year. I think if that’s legitimate they should win this game by 10+, which is never that easy against UNI.

#47 Xavier at #32 Creighton (-6), 8 PM ET, FS1. Being wrong is my specialty, so take this for everything it isn’t worth: Xavier feels like a bit of a ticking time bomb. They’ve beaten UConn and Marquette, so everyone is back in on them…as opponents have shot 29.2% from three in the last 10, as Xavier has posted the 281st-best 2PT%, as Xavier loses the rebounding battle by almost 10 per 100 possessions. I just am not ready to buy in on this edition of X, sorry.

#24 Saint Mary’s (-3) at #65 Santa Clara, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Deserves better than ESPNU. It would be very Herb Sendek to defeat both Gonzaga and SMC in the same season yet still finish 12-6 in conference play. That being said, Santa Clara is a lot better than people realize. Since December 1: 41st overall, top-25 offense.

#39 Texas at #20 Ole Miss (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Also since December 1: Ole Miss opponents have shot 27.3% from deep. I do not anticipate that holds for much longer, and a Texas team that seems to thrive on hitting the dumbest shots in world history could take advantage.

C GAMES

#102 Samford (-2) at #163 Furman, 6 PM ET, CBSSN. This particular edition of Samford feels very similar to 13/14 seeds of old like Iona or UL-Lafayette: fun for the regular season, probably not doing much in March. Enjoy them while you can.

#178 Radford at #175 UNC Asheville (-4), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Potential Big South title preview? High Point seems interested in playing with their food as of late.

#164 FGCU at #149 Jacksonville (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. FGCU has finally bothered to show up for conference play for the first time in years. This is a top-four battle in the ASun, and FGCU has a surprisingly solid interior attack.

#88 TCU at #11 Texas Tech (-15), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Bad sign for TCU: this is the third time this season they’ve been a 14+ point dog after it happened twice total in the previous eight seasons. (3-1 ATS, though.)

#133 ETSU at #131 UNC Greensboro (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Fifth at second in the SoCon. Not bad. An ETSU win upsets the apple cart pretty well.

#140 Illinois Chicago at #81 Bradley (-9), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. UIC has been surprisingly really good in MVC play thus far, now 6-4 in the league with an offense that hammers the boards and gets to the line. They have a path here.

NCAAW: #71 UTSA at #59 South Florida (-3.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. We’ve chatted very little AAC women’s hoops this year, and to be sure, it’s probably a one-bid league. But this game is fun. USF is 13-8 but has played a nasty schedule; UTSA is 17-2 and utterly dominant down low. Jordyn Jenkins versus Sammie Puisis is great stuff.

#82 Rutgers at #46 Northwestern, 9 PM ET, BTN. I’m bored of Rutgers, sorry. Just not fun watching a team with 1.5 good college basketball players on it.

NCAAW: #104 North Dakota State at #53 South Dakota State (-10.5), 9 PM ET, Midco Sports. Probable Summit League title game preview. Brooklyn Meyer for SDSU should be getting way more national publicity: 120 ORtg on 28% USG, 62% on twos, a 3% Block%, and a 2% Steal%? Those are wild numbers. For comparison’s sake on the MBB side, the only players doing that this year are Cooper Flagg, JT Toppin, and Samford’s Jaden Brownell.

#100 UNLV at #40 Utah State (-11), 10 PM ET, FS1. Fix those metrics up a bit, Ags.

#85 Nevada at #55 Boise State (-7), 10 PM ET, CBSSN. Boise’s been a crushing disappointment for me; I just don’t understand how a Leon Rice team can be as bad defensively against good competition as they are. Totally unrelated, but I am sure that opponent 3PT% of 38.7% in Q1-Q3 affairs will hold forever.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 30

A GAMES

NCAAW: #13 Oklahoma at #16 LSU (-2.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Real hoop, things of that nature. I think Oklahoma has serious turnover issues that are going to hold back an otherwise fabulous team from a Final Four; against top 100 teams in 11 games, they’re -6 in turnover margin per 100 possessions. They play a very analytically-friendly style otherwise, though, so a road win here would not be a surprise.

NCAAW: #20 Alabama at #19 Kentucky (-3.5), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. A reverse aspect of that applies here. Both Alabama and Kentucky are frankly pretty poor rebounding teams, which is surprising to me given how good Kentucky is inside the perimeter on both sides of the ball. Sarah Ashlee Barker is back for Alabama, making this a full-strength game in what’s basically a coin flip on a neutral floor. I love this one and it would be my game of the night if not for

#109 South Dakota State at #105 North Dakota State (-4), 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. I am sorry. I really am. But I’m nothing if not a self-promoter, and I think that if you are a paid subscriber, which my unbiased opinion is that you SHOULD be, you should read this and realize this is perhaps the single most exciting mid-major game of the year.

Could the Dakota Marker rivalry produce a 2025 All-American?

B GAMES

NCAAW: #29 Oregon at #18 Michigan State (-6.5), 6 PM ET, BTN. I had doubts about Michigan State and they came out on Saturday to merely destroy what had been an excellent Michigan team as of late. Versus top 100 teams, MSU ranks 8th in defensive TO%, 31st in opponent 2PT%, and 7th in Block%. It’s not beautiful hoop but it’s a good formula for some amount of a March run. Sweet Sixteen?

#30 Ohio State at #45 Penn State (-1), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Penn State’s addiction to losing winnable games is likely playing them out of March, but Ohio State is in a similar boat. Per Torvik, they’ve held average leads (as in, the average scoring margin during a game) of +4.5, +3.4, and +0.3 in losses to Pitt, Oregon, and Indiana, respectively. Imagine how you’d feel about these guys if they were 13-6 and not 11-8.

NCAAW: #22 Vanderbilt (-10) at #66 Florida, 7 PM ET, SECN+. Vanderbilt’s a little better than 22nd at the moment. Florida absolutely, positively has to win this game to have any at-large hopes left.

NCAAW: #9 North Carolina (-4) at #32 California, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. UNC has a strange split I don’t see often: they actually play better away from home. They’re 8-1 with the very best defense in the sport in away/neutral games. The problem: the offense is pretty rough to watch this year.

#28 Oregon at #33 UCLA (-3), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. Here is another “ticking time bomb” pick that I don’t like: is UCLA actually any good? Against top-300 opponents - not really a high bar to cross - they’re 243rd in 2PT% allowed, are running negative on the boards, rank 327th in fouls per game, and play like a 10 seed on the whole.

C GAMES

NCAAW: #6 Notre Dame (-18.5) at #51 Virginia Tech, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Maybe! But probably not.

NCAAW: #107 Cleveland State at #100 Green Bay (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Potential Horizon League title game.

NCAAW: #119 Quinnipiac at #67 Fairfield (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. These two teams were basically dead even a month ago, but Fairfield’s taken off. The last 10 games have displayed a Fairfield team that’s top-60 in America with a top-50 defense. They’re +23.4% on twos over the last ten.

#156 New Mexico State at #106 Middle Tennessee (-7), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. MTSU has a bit of room to roam still for me. They’ve played like a top-100 team over their last 12 games with a legitimately good defense. Offensively nothing to write home about but of interest against an NMSU side that can’t score much either.

NCAAW: #38 Iowa State at #7 Kansas State (-17.5), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN. My post-Ayoka Lee fears were confirmed a bit with KSU taking a nasty road loss to Colorado where they had basically no offensive gravity and struggled with turnovers. Should be fine here but I’m worried going forward.

#42 Memphis (-8) at #146 Tulane, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. If Will Warren types “Memphis is going to regress” enough times, will it actually happen?

NCAAW: #24 Minnesota at #5 USC (-14.5), 10 PM ET, Peacock. Top-25 versus top-25 is in C Tier. Why? Because aside from Notre Dame, who did win outright, no one has kept it within 20 points in USC’s home arena this season.

#161 Seattle at #93 Grand Canyon (-9), 11 PM ET, ESPNU. Grand Canyon is fine, they’re just doing the thing where they don’t care much until they have to.

#61 UC San Diego (-7) at #193 Hawaii, midnight, ESPN+. Consider this a placeholder: I need to write about UC San Diego in the near future, particularly the mathball style they seem to have nailed that’s actually watchable for normies.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 31

A GAME

D3: #7 Tufts at #1 Wesleyan (CT) (-8), 7 PM ET, streaming. On a dry night for D1, tune in for this. D3 has some really fun teams this year but Wesleyan feels like the very best of the bunch. At D3 Datacast, they’re the only team with a top-10 offense and defense. They also might have the Player of the Year in Shane Regan. Despite just 27.6 MPG, his counting stats are great (17.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.9 APG) and his actual on-court impact even better. In CBB Analytics various all-in-one metrics, he’s seventh in RAPM, second in Win Shares, and top-15 in pretty much every single metric there is.

B GAMES

#75 Yale (-4) at #137 Princeton, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. We haven’t paid too much attention to Yale this year, which is a shame. They’re tremendous on the boards, have quality perimeter shooting, and the best interior defense in the Ivy. Not as fun a watch as Princeton but possibly more effective for March.

NCAAW: #54 Columbia at #43 Harvard (-5.5), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Both of these teams should make the NCAA Tournament. They’re both above water in Wins Above Bubble and are excellent teams to watch. The Rule of Cool should count here.

NCAAW: #45 Arizona at #31 Utah (-8), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Arizona’s one big road win, such as this one, away from feeling genuinely pretty good about March. They have one true star in Breya Cunningham and not much else, but they’re interesting.

C GAMES

#97 Akron (-1) at #142 Kent State, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Kent State needs this one to get into the MAC top four discussion; Akron wins this and it’s their league to lose.

#66 Dayton (-1) at #112 Saint Louis, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Dayton is a brutal, brutal watch right now.

D2: West Texas A&M at Midwestern (TX) State, 8:30 PM ET, streaming. On Flo Hoops, sorry. But this is a fun D2 game between two D2 Elite Eight hopefuls at year’s end. Let’s say you’re one of the coaches who subscribe to this and you’re like “hey man, what D2 guys are good that I should start tampering with.” I would reply “hey man, don’t do that, but if you’re legally required to do that, take a look at Jailyn Sledge on West Texas A&M. He’s awesome defensively.”

#62 Indiana at #8 Purdue (-12), 8 PM ET, FOX. Who wants this Indiana season to end less: Gregg Doyel, who cannot get enough of writing about how Indiana fans are The Problem, or Purdue fans experiencing all-time schadenfreude at the expense of their rival?

#246 Siena at #215 Marist (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. The best of this Friday’s MAACtion.

ONE TO PLAY US OUT!

Heaven won’t keep us together, right place at the wrong time…very Lynchian!