Week 13 Weekday Watchlist: No Comment
Plus it's already 4,000 words anyway
Hello and welcome to the Watchlist, a weekly column here at the Substack where I cover what I think are the best games at all levels of college hoops in a given week. These watchlist posts are always free, by the way. There is usually a short essay, but look, you’re gonna have to forgive me on this one.
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
NO. You cannot make me comment on last night’s football game just yet. Give me a few days. The essay is CANCELLED. Here’s your watchlist. GAHHHHHHHHHHH
(To make it up to you, I have a couple other essays coming in the next week, one on the Mountain West, one on Dalton Knecht.)
All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. All D-2 and lower rankings are via Massey.
MONDAY, JANUARY 29
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #7 LSU (-6.5) at #31 Mississippi State, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This isn’t necessarily a huge battle for SEC purposes - it’s 5-2 LSU at 3-3 State - but it’s a figuratively massive one between the two best non-South Carolina frontcourts in the SEC. LSU scores 45 a game in the paint; MSU 38. LSU leads the nation in second-change points at nearly 17 a game, too.
A problem for State here is that it’s effectively 2-on-1. LSU has Angel Reese (19.6 PPG, 11.9 RPG) and Aneesah Morrow (18 PPG, 9.7 RPG), while State’s frontcourt effectiveness has mostly been built around the excellent Jessika Carter (15.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG). State has the better backcourt, however, and could stay in it that way. I’m excited for this one.
FOUR STARS
#14 Duke (-2) at #51 Virginia Tech, 7 PM ET, ESPN. I guess that this is just who Duke is this year. I’m not sure they have the fortitude to hammer down and run away like I figured they would, but they’re extremely talented and have one of the best players in America in Kyle Filipowski. But again: Road Duke under Scheyer seems to be a real worry. They’re a shocking 4-10-1 ATS in his tenure. Tech, meanwhile, has won four of the six games they’ve been home underdogs in by five or less.
#1 Houston (-8) at #36 Texas, 9 PM ET, ESPN. This should have a live crowd and be pretty fun. Looking forward at Texas’s schedule they’re probably on the good side of the bubble both now and later, but a win here would go a long way in making that happen. It would also be a reversal of trends for Texas, who’s been horrendous defensively against top competition. They’ve held one (1) of their nine Top 100 opponents below 1.05 PPP this year.
THREE STARS
This video.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 30
FIVE STARS
#10 Illinois (-4) at #60 Ohio State, 7 PM ET, Peacock. Since Terrence Shannon’s return from his suspension, Illinois has yet to look nearly as good as they did circa mid-December. By the way, is there a single announcer in America willing to pee on the proverbial third rail and actually say why Shannon was suspended? I haven’t heard anyone do it yet.
Anyway, as a game, this is pretty pivotal for both sides. An Illinois loss here all but ends their regular season title hopes, as they’d be two games back of Wisconsin and three of Purdue. Ohio State has been horrific this month and really, really needs a win to get back into Tournament discussions. I’m very excited to see Bruce Thornton (16 PPG, 4.5 APG) in action here, because he’s been the lone Buckeye to consistently play well against better competition. Can he save the season here, or is this another game where Marcus Domask goes nuts?
#21 San Diego State at #41 Colorado State (-1), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. This is Jaedon LeDee (21.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) and Isaiah Stevens (16.8 PPG, 7.5 APG) going at it for a full 40, which is what we here describe as Real Hoop. I’ve got some worries about this SDSU rim protection unit holding up against Stevens and Joel Scott, as it really hasn’t been as good as last year’s group on that end. On the other end, if SDSU can shake Reese Waters or Micah Parrish free a few times it could be huge; I really don’t trust CSU’s guarding of threes.
FOUR STARS
#54 South Carolina at #4 Tennessee (-12), 6:30 PM ET, SEC Network. I imagine most are well aware of Tennessee at this point, but how many are aware of 17-3 South Carolina? I have to admit I don’t fully buy the record, especially when they’re 6-2 in games decided by 6 or less. But hey! Doesn’t matter if you’re 17-3 and arguably on pace for a 9 seed or so. That’s a great season for these guys. One thing of note: they’ve been great at running shooters off the three-point line regardless of opponent quality, but their 2PT% allowed drops from 43% to 49% against top-100 teams. Still very good! Just not as elite.
#13 Marquette (-1) at #39 Villanova, 7 PM ET, FS1. Technically, this is #1 in KenPom’s FanMatch Rating for the night, but sorry, these teams are both really annoying. Okay, maybe it’s just Villanova that’s really annoying. You guys did your stupid thing with the other Philadelphia schools and got egg on your face, but then you have wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, Creighton, Memphis, etc. And now you start farting around and move to 11-9. Win this game or get out of my face.
#26 Texas Tech at #23 TCU (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Finally, the best Big 12 game of a given Tuesday night is on a normal ESPN network. Last week, Houston/BYU was on ESPN+, BYU/Iowa State was on ESPN+ the week before that. Finally! Anyway, huge congrats to TCU for finally beating a good opponent away from home. Their reward: two games at home this week and no more road games until mid-February. Interesting thing of note here: if you sort exclusively by performance against top-100 opponents, per Hoop-Explorer, two of the top-8 players in the Big 12 are Tech’s Joe Toussaint (13.3 PPG, 4.2 fouls drawn per game) and TCU’s Emanuel Miller (16.5 PPG, 6 RPG).
#28 Oklahoma (-1) at #65 Kansas State, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Sound the alarm about Oklahoma while you’re off the couch, please. Just not feeling good about this! OU has three Quad 1 wins (Iowa, Iowa State, Cincinnati), which is good and fine, but they went 0-2 at home this past week and are now starting down three straight Quad 1 opponents, the next two of which are on the road. They cannot lose both.
#32 Mississippi State at #64 Ole Miss (-1), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. This is the most surprisingly good game of the entire season for me. In the preseason I said this would be the worst SEC game of the year because I could not imagine many scenarios in which either offense was watchable. Both have threaded the needle to at least have decent offenses, with State’s Josh Hubbard being a serious star-in-the-making.
THREE STARS
#45 Iowa (-2) at #93 Indiana, 7 PM ET, BTN. Neither one of these teams is sniffing the NCAA Tournament, but it’s a guilt-free way to watch a game where both teams score 80+.
#91 VCU at #82 St. Bonaventure (-4), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Neither one of these teams has any at-large case whatsoever but they’re both fine. Really, I wanted this on here so I can highlight Charles Pride (11.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG) from the Bonnies. He’s shooting a scalding 46.3% from three on 67 attempts. If he holds that percentage the rest of the way, it’s the best 3PT% season by an A-10 player in five years.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 31
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #8 Indiana at #19 Maryland (-0.5), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Avoid looking at the records for a second here, because it may give you the indication that I’ve lost it a bit. Putting a 12-7, 4-4 B1G Maryland team in the must-watch category here - one who’s 2-7 against Quad 1 - does seem problematic. But this is a great game between a Maryland team that probably deserves a better record and an Indiana group currently tied for first in the Big Ten.
Obviously, everything Indiana’s going to do is built around the excellent Mackenzie Holmes (19.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG), who’s shooting a bonkers 65% on post-ups per Synergy. But I think more people who aren’t super-familiar with WBB should know the name Sara Scalia (15.4 PPG, 45% 3PT). There’s a list of five players in the entire nation who are shooting 45% or better on 6+ three-point attempts per game and she’s on it. On the other end, though, is Shyanne Sellers (16 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.4 APG), a walking triple-double threat who draws 6 fouls per game. Don’t get rid of that Peacock login just yet.
#35 Florida at #20 Kentucky (-6), 8 PM ET, ESPN. One sell for this game is super-easy: it’s two top 40 teams and the projected score is 90-85. If that’s the Vegas O/U (175) then it could be underwhelming, because three of the four 175+ point games this year have gone well under that number. Don’t focus on that just yet, focus on the hypothetical: two great transition offenses with different ways of getting their points. Florida should have a serious frontcourt advantage here but I can’t name a Florida guard that can stop any of Kentucky’s perimeter options.
FOUR STARS
#33 St. John’s at #42 Xavier (-2), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Bit of a lightning round here. St. John’s remains firmly in the field for now but their three-game losing streak recently put them on less-stable footing than before. Xavier badly needs wins to get into bubble territory but I’ve been genuinely impressed by the coaching job Sean Miller has done this year.
#8 Alabama (-7) at #70 Georgia, 6:30 PM ET, SEC Network. There’s been some talk of Alabama’s defense turning it around a bit as of late, and to be sure Torvik’s got them as a top-40 defense over their last 10 games. At the same time, opponents are shooting 29.9% from deep on what I’d call poorly-guarded jumpers. Perhaps more notable is their road/neutral defense: Torvik rates it 132nd-best through nine performances, with just one team (Liberty) being held below 1 PPP. Five have gone 1.17+ PPP.
NCAAW: #4 UConn (-13.5) at #39 Villanova, 6:30 PM ET, SNY. Again, probably can’t watch this one, but it seems like a discourse has developed around Paige Bueckers that is pretty interesting to me. She’s had multiple injuries and came into college at the time of COVID; she’s also averaging 20+ PPP and has been one of the 3-4 best players in college hoops this year. I’m not sure what the big deal is? She’s largely lived up to the hype, I’d say. Anyway, UConn needs this one.
#16 Baylor (-3) at #72 UCF, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Speaking of horrible road defenses! Here’s Baylor, who ranks 139th in away/neutral defensive efficiency (yes, adjusted for schedule). They’re allowing home teams to shoot 54% from two, 36% from three, and fouling at an absurdly high rate. Some of this is due to a few outlier performances (Texas going for 1.28 PPP stands out), but out of eight road/neutral games the only good performance was a road loss to Kansas State. This, against a truly wretched offense in UCF, will be an ultimate test of Road Baylor.
#38 Wake Forest at #71 Pittsburgh (-1), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Not much in the way of interesting notes here, aside from a hot shooting offense (Wake, 38% 3PT) going up against a hot shooting defense (Pitt, 30% 3PT allowed). Using Torvik’s T-Ranketology tool, neither one of these teams would be in the NCAA Tournament if it began today, but a Wake road win here probably does them a lot of good.
NCAAW: #30 Marquette at #21 Creighton (-6.5), 7 PM ET, Flo Hoops. This is on the most villainous streaming service alive, which is a shame. If you’re one of the 14 subscribers, you can see one of the best shooting offenses in America (Marquette) take on a Creighton offense that never, ever turns the ball over.
NCAAW: #16 Kansas State at #48 Oklahoma (-0.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I’m unsure why Oklahoma’s favored here but Kansas State may well be overdue for a loss. They’re 20-1, which is great, of course, but also 5-1 in games decided by 7 or less. Oklahoma has overcome a rough non-con to suddenly be 13-6, 7-1 B12. A win here gives them a share of the Big 12 lead.
#106 Northern Iowa at #74 Bradley (-6), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. The Missouri Valley this year is probably the best it’s been since Wichita State departed the league, with five teams either inside the top-100 or bubbling just under. Northern Iowa needs wins to stay in the hunt, while Bradley’s offense has been the second-best unit in league play by a hair behind the unbelievable Indiana State.
#57 Boise State at #19 New Mexico (-9), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. NCAA Tournament team playing an NCAA Tournament team in an environment that should be really, really nuts. Simple as that.
THREE STARS
#47 Northwestern at #2 Purdue (-13), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Well, it’s not at Northwestern, so no need. But in the event it’s close you might as well know about it.
#37 Indiana State (-8) at #160 Belmont, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. You are aware of Indiana State, of course, and if I was in the Nashville area this week I’d go to this game just to see them. But Belmont is wildly fun too. You’ve got to see the pair of Malik Dia (17.4 PPG) and Cade Tyson (16.8 PPG) before this season ends.
NCAAW: #40 Penn State at #47 Minnesota (-1.5), 8 PM ET, BTN+. Again: two NCAA Tournament-level teams. Penn State scores 86.3 PPG and has a terrific offense; Minnesota’s defense is sound and very well-coached.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 1
SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #5 Texas (-2.5) at #18 Baylor, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN. This is the easiest pick I had to make all week, thankfully. There isn’t a single Top 25 vs. Top 25 KenPom game on a weekday this week, and when the best argument I can make is a game between an NIT team and a fine-but-overrated Kentucky then we’re obviously going to pick what’s best. After all, this newsletter wants to cover it all, not just the teams ranked in the men’s top 25 or those who play in the Big East.
That pushed aside, this is sort of like a loser-leaves-town match for the Big 12 title. Both are a full three games behind Kansas State at the time of writing, but it’s #4 at #15 in NET with a combined record of 34-6. These are also two terrific offenses and defenses; by defensive efficiency this is #6 playing at #8.
I like this one a lot because it’s a strategy-centric game between two offenses that couldn’t be more unlike one another. Texas attempts the fewest threes of any Big 12 team by a mile and will look to hammer the paint behind the elite Madison Booker (21 PPG, 6.6 APG, 7.3 RPG). It’s a mismatch with a pretty pedestrian Baylor rim protection group. On the other end, this Baylor team has shown an ability to get white-hot from three behind the efforts of Yaya Felder (21.3 PPG, 39% 3PT) and Sarah Andrews (17.4 PPG, 39% 3PT). If they play it correctly, Baylor could turn this game into a math problem Texas can’t get around. If Texas plays it correctly, the math won’t matter because they’ll be hitting 65% of their twos. Fun for everyone!
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #25 North Carolina at #14 NC State (-8.5), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. Here’s your sell: Deja Kelly (UNC) (19.5 PPG, 7.9 fouls drawn/40) versus NC State’s Aziaha James (21.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 5.2 fouls drawn/40). This is also a very important game for title race purposes. UNC sits in a three-way tie for first at 7-1 at the time of writing, while NCSU is in a two-way tie for fourth with two losses. Interesting piece here for UNC is that this would be their second win over a top-15 team on the road this year already after beating Notre Dame 61-57 on January 7.
#11 Wisconsin (-3) at #52 Nebraska, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. If you go by just the last 10 games for each team, per Torvik, this is the nation’s #4 offense going on the road to play #24. It’s also the #74 defense playing at #173. Wisconsin has generally held serve under Greg Gard on the road pretty well, but Lincoln has already proven itself as a tricky place to play this year. I know what to expect from Wisconsin for the most part, but Nebraska puts together some wild up-and-down performances. The key guy here is not our beloved Tominaga but rather Rienk Mast, who has quietly been Nebraska’s X-factor against top competition. In six games against top-50 opponents he’s averaged 14 & 8 on 52% 2PT/36% 3PT shooting splits. They need even more than that here if possible.
FOUR STARS
#110 UNC Wilmington at #121 College of Charleston (-3), 7 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Your simple, old-fashioned CAA Eliminator Game. A loss here for UNC Wilmington just about nixes their hopes of a regular season title, as they’d be 5-4 in CAA play, while a loss for Charleston gives UNCW a tiebreaker via a season sweep. Great opportunity to see my favorite CAA player this year in Trazarien White (20.4 PPG, 7 RPG, 7.2 fouls drawn/40), or at least it would be if it wasn’t on Flo Hoops.
NCAAW: #41 Syracuse at #21 Louisville (-9.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is 17-2 at 17-3, which should sell itself. Syracuse still doesn’t have a signature win, really, but they’re getting close. Terrific battle between the two best non-Hidalgo/Kitley players in the ACC: Syracuse’s Dyaisha Fair (23.1 PPG, 3.9 APG) versus Louisville’s Kiki Jefferson (21.7 PPG, 40% 3PT, 7.1 RPG, 4.4 APG). Fair in particular is a marvel on the court, a 5’5” jitterbug that plays as if every possession has the potential to cease world wars.
NCAAW: #45 Ole Miss (-4.5) at #66 Vanderbilt, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Plenty to ponder here, but considering Tennessee just played Vanderbilt in men’s hoops and it went pretty much according to plan, I’d like to invite Vanderbilt fans to invest into their women’s team instead. Like, what could the men’s team possibly give you that isn’t surpassed tenfold by Jordyn Cambridge (16.5 PPG, 8 RPG, 5.3 APG, 4.7 SPG)? Merely one of the best statlines I’ve seen.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #12 Notre Dame (-8.5) at #76 Georgia Tech, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is probably Georgia Tech’s last shot at a season-shifting win, as they’re 0-6 against Quad 1. By the way, did you see Hannah Hidalgo on Saturday? She’s the next One.
NCAAW: #34 Tennessee (-4.5) at #78 Georgia, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Kellie Harper, I’m relenting briefly. Keep winning.
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-23.5) at #56 Auburn, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. To put into perspective how much better South Carolina is than the field, they’re favored by 23.5 points against the sport’s 56th-best team on the road. You would have to have #1 Houston play a road game at #224 Southern Miss to achieve the same spread on the men’s side.
#120 Youngstown State at #152 Wright State (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Youngstown State is in a three-way tie for first; Wright State is tied with Northern Kentucky for fourth. The Horizon League race is bonkers right now, with nine of the league’s 11 teams having 3-5 losses. These are probably the two best teams, and Wright State’s offense has been insane; they’re sitting at 1.24 PPP in 10 conference games.
NCAAW: #28 Alabama at #49 Arkansas (-2.5), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. The SEC is stuffed with elite defenses this year, and both of these teams will try to break the other down into long, fruitless possessions. It’s the classic “not every close game is a good game” theory at play.
#50 Oregon (-1) at #94 USC, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN. Exciting battle between two coaches that will be wearing different colors and clothes in 12 months.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #23 USC at #2 Stanford (-13.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
NCAAW: #16 Colorado at #24 Washington State (-1.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
In the final year of the Pac-12, the conference has managed to take the most fun conference in women’s basketball and bury almost all of its best games on a channel that barely anyone gets. If I am to try and get it, I either have to sign up for cable again (nope!), sign up for something called “Fubo”, or change to a different streaming service than the one I currently have. It’s a first-world problem, obviously, but it’s pretty clear why this conference is going to die: no one will ever be worse at marketing the best things they have. You’d have to try to suck this bad at it.
But, if you can find it on…a service…possibly a legal one…you can find two bangers here. USC/Stanford is an amazing battle between two of the very best players in America. I cannot get enough of JuJu Watkins (32.1 PPG), who is West Coast Caitlin Clark. I also cannot get enough of Cameron Brink (31 points/40, 19.9 rebounds/40). I have to use per-40 stats for Brink because so few of Stanford’s games have been close, but when they put her in against competitive opponents, she may be the single most impactful player in the nation.
Colorado/Wazzu is just great hoops. Two offenses that produce a lot of quality twos, a very wobbly Colorado defense, a Washington State defense that’s also struggled against better competition…it should be an excellent game. What a shame this is all going to go away for money, but you can’t say you didn’t see it coming.
FOUR STARS
#60 Ohio State at #45 Iowa (-5), 7 PM ET, FS1. Well, one of you has to get serious. Iowa at least has some good vibes from previous years to fall back on. What’s Chris Holtmann got, other than an embarrassing loss to a 15 seed?
#67 Princeton at #87 Yale (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Well, how about this? These are the two best teams (sorry, Cornell, though you’re close) scrapping it out right after Princeton suffered their first loss in forever. I think this one’s going to be a lot of fun and will probably select it as my main focus for Friday night.
#82 St. Bonaventure at #25 Dayton (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. The Bonnies still technically sit as the second-best team in the Atlantic 10, per KenPom, but they sit in a huge six-way tie between four-loss teams. Dayton is Dayton and is well-positioned for an at-large bid as long as they don’t lose games like these.
#55 Butler at #15 Creighton (-8), 9 PM ET, FS1. Butler seems to be hellbent on putting their fans through the most stressful experience possible and feels like a lock to be one of the last four teams in or out of the field. If they make it, I feel like I know they’re Dayton material. Creighton’s offense is still wobbly but it feels like they’ve cracked the code on defense.
NCAAW: #6 Utah (-8.5) at #61 Washington, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Alissa Pili remains the best player Utah has, but we need a little shoutout for Kennady McQueen, averaging 11 PPG in Pac-12 play and shooting 70% on twos despite being a 5’11” guard. Big one here against a Washington defense that forces turnovers in bunches.
THREE STARS
#133 Toledo at #97 Akron (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. This is likely going to be for the MAC lead in a conference race that’s become a dead heat. Akron has the best player in Enrique Freeman; Toledo has the best offense for the millionth year in a row.
NCAAW: #9 UCLA (-10.5) at #63 California, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Could be close, but it feels like UCLA has the three best players (Rice, Osborne, Betts) on the court and likely four of the five best when you add in Jaquez.