Week 13 Weekend Watchlist: Knocking Down My Door
I build a hoopin' machine
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
I heard this for the first time maybe a year or two ago and I’m kind of amazed these guys haven’t had some sort of major critical reappraisal and/or monetary influx the last 20 years? Apparently people were pretty lukewarm on this at the time but it slams.
I wrote two things this week that I’d like to promote. Here is a piece on Michigan’s very math-friendly shot selection on both offense and defense (paid):
Here’s one on Gonzaga and what happens when we veer too far in the “they have a bad resume” direction with an objectively good team (free).
Onto the games. I have this set up to post at what I think will be mile 6 of a Saturday morning long run. Let’s see if that’s accurate!
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 8
A GAMES
#20 Marquette at #30 Creighton (-1), 2 PM ET, FOX. An incredible weekend of Big East hoops (among the top four teams) started with a very mild St. John’s upset of UConn last night, which is perhaps the best possible content to start the weekend. It does lessen the blow of this game a little, though. All that can happen if Marquette wins is a tie for second and for St. John’s (12-1 BE) to deepen their lead on Creighton (10-2). Still: two very good teams with excellent coaches. Why say no?
#14 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri (-3), 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Two intriguing trends at play here. As a road dog in conference play, TAMU with this core (Wade Taylor and crew, so 2021-22 to now) is 11-9-1 ATS, but more notably, has gone over the pregame total points expectation in 13 of 21. This would play into Mizzou’s hands, as they’re 14-1 (the one loss being Tennessee on Wednesday) when scoring 80+ this year, but considering a usually moribund TAMU offense dropped 80+ thrice in January, maybe not?
#5 Florida at #1 Auburn (-8), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. As a road dog - actually, as an underdog in general - Florida hasn’t shown it has what it takes under Todd Golden to steal these kinds of games. They’re 5-20 straight up and 10-15 ATS as an underdog at all. BUT! The two areas that Auburn’s showed any vulnerability at all in SEC play is in keeping opponents off the boards and avoiding foul trouble.
Here’s your numbers to watch: Florida is 29-6 when posting an OREB% of 36% or better the last two seasons (Auburn’s given up 36% or more five times, including thrice in January) and 32-8 when they get 20+ free throw attempts (12 times for Auburn this year). When they do both in the same game: 22-5. When Auburn’s opponents do both in the same game over the last 1.5 seasons: well, still 7-2. But considering Florida did both of these things in an 81-65 win last year, it’s not implausible.
NCAAW: #11 Ohio State at #6 USC (-8.5), 9 PM ET, FOX. As teams appear slightly more vulnerable, it makes the women’s basketball season that much more fun. Over the last ten games, Ohio State has played like the 20th-best team in America, suddenly unable to grab an offensive rebound. Meanwhile, USC has played like the 7th-best, but they continue to struggle with finding the consistent perimeter shooting that would put them over the top in March. Obviously I favor USC here, but neither team is flawless.
#9 Texas Tech at #12 Arizona (-3), 10 PM ET, ESPN. This is my second-favorite game of the weekend. Why not? A real case can be made that these two teams can win the Big 12 regular season title with another Houston slip-up somewhere, and when TTU already owns the road win over Houston, it adds that much more importance to the title race. Here, though, there’s a couple factors siding against them.
One is that TTU opponents have shot 26% from deep over the last seven games. Now, you know I love Grant McCasland, but considering their opponents faced during that stretch have shot 34.5% from deep otherwise, they’ve probably experienced some good fortune. The other: three of Texas Tech’s four losses have come in games where they’ve given up 10+ fastbreak points. Arizona’s average is 14.5.
#52 UC San Diego at #62 UC Irvine (-1), 10 PM ET, ESPNU. This is my favorite game of the weekend. Why not? Also, jeez, please stop putting my favorite games at the time of night where I’m already half-asleep. I don’t ask for THAT much!
This is basically for the Big West title. Since UCI beat UCSD on the road already, a sweep would functionally lock it up for them. I am fascinated to see if two things switch from the first battle. In that one, UCSD, a team that averages just over 10 PPG from post-ups, got two (2) points from post-up actions in the entire game, per Synergy. Also, they shot 6-35 from three, their worst shooting output of the season by some margin. Can luck go their way this time, or is UCI simply their nightmare matchup?
B GAMES
#4 Tennessee (-3) at #36 Oklahoma, 12 PM ET, ESPN. I’ll merely copy and paste what my friend Jon wrote. While I don’t think it applies fully to either team involved, perhaps it’s worth remembering in these cases.
I already saw at least one person declare that Oklahoma is more likely to win this game because they need it more for their resume. Again, I ask: have you considered why they might need such a win as this in the first place? Because they probably aren’t very good. One thing I’m looking for here is the tremendous 3PT% luck Oklahoma has enjoyed: 39.2% for themselves, 29.8% for opponents in conference play. Maybe Porter Moser has magic beans for the perimeter he’ll sell to any coach asking this offseason. More likely, a team that ranks 13th in 2PT% allowed in the SEC and in the bottom three in TO/OREB is probably the beneficiary of good variance.
#38 Oregon at #16 Michigan State (-8), 12 PM ET, FOX. That being said, Oregon could really use a win here, because they’ve been horrendous for a month straight. Last 10 games: 81st in overall efficiency, 136th defensively.
#31 Texas at #51 Vanderbilt (PK), 1 PM ET, SEC Network. If you’re into the Small Sample SEC Theory I presented earlier this week, the spot heavily favors Vandy. Back home after two brutal road affairs, while Texas has to trek to wacky Memorial Gym after losing at home to Arkansas. My other sell here: Vandy’s opponents have shot 42% from deep in conference play. Not sustainable; better results due.
#21 Michigan (-4) at #55 Indiana, 1 PM ET, CBS. Is this the rare New Manager Bounce game where no coach has actually been fired yet? Mike Woodson is stepping down at season’s end but apparently will coach out the string. In theory this is the perfect “how did Indiana win that game?” moment but honestly, anything within 20 points either way wouldn’t shock me.
#8 Kansas (-6) at #65 Kansas State, 2 PM ET, ESPN. I’m not fully sold on Kansas State being fixed; over the last ten games, they’ve had a combined -7.8 TO/REB margin per 100 possessions. But the offense does appear legitimately much improved.
#70 Yale (-4) at #120 Cornell, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a potential Ivy League title game preview, and both of these teams are wonderful watches. Last 10 games: Cornell is shooting 64% (?!?) from two, while Yale is shooting 41% from three. If that holds at all this will be an instant classic.
NCAAW: #7 Kansas State (-9) at #38 Oklahoma State, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Oklahoma State is this year’s quiet surprise in the Big 12, sitting 18-4 (8-3) and in prime position to solidify a top-four spot with a win here. They beat WVU at home earlier this year, so this is no guarantee for a Kansas State squad that might need to win out to be in the 1 seed discussion.
#44 Pittsburgh at #40 North Carolina (-4), 4 PM ET, ESPNU. This is the Anxiety Game of the Weekend. Both of these teams desperately need a win of any kind, particularly one over one of the crabs in their bucket. If UNC can find any way at all to keep Pitt out of the paint, they should win; they’re 10-3 when opponents score 30 or fewer points in the paint.
#32 Mississippi State at #37 Georgia (-2), 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Here’s an interesting Spot Game. Mississippi State is coming off of a week-long break (one which every SEC team gets at some point), which was sorely needed after losing five in seven. Georgia pantsed LSU on Wednesday, but that’s a blip on the radar otherwise after losing five of six before that. Could be a full tank versus half-empty tank game.
#2 Duke (-6) at #29 Clemson, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. This is Dickie V’s first game back in a while, which is the lead story. The secondary story is that this is one of just two games left on Duke’s ACC slate where they’re less than 90% to win at tip. The thing of note to me is that Duke has struggled slightly with more aggressive perimeter defenses; they had to surge in the final ten minutes against Louisville to hang on and had to hold off Wake Forest late. Maybe!
#6 Alabama (-4) at #43 Arkansas, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN. This is another full-tank/empty-tank game but perhaps not in the way you’d imagine. Alabama is coming off a week-long break, albeit after a hot streak, while Arkansas has suddenly won back-to-back road games at Kentucky/Texas to give their season life. Do they have enough in the tank for a third straight huge win?
#23 Saint Mary’s (-2) at #66 Oregon State, 10 PM ET, ESPN2. Saint Mary’s has to avoid the dreaded two-game slide after losing to San Francisco in the week. I assume this should be a solid bounce-back. Why? Well, they shot 3-23 (13%) from deep in a game they lost by a single point.
#46 San Diego State (-1) at #78 Colorado State, 10 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. This series has consistently gone the way of Brian Dutcher, who is 11-3 (10-4 ATS) against Niko Medved. The caveat here: San Diego State was favored in 12 of those 14 games. CSU got rocked in the first meeting this year, but revenge won’t come if they can’t hold SDSU under 70, which they’ve only done in five of these 14 meetings.
C GAMES
#77 South Carolina at #24 Kentucky (-12), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. 3PT% regression is hitting Kentucky like a monster right now, as opponents have shot 26-55 from 3 the last two games. Of course, UK has hit 44% of their attempts over the last five. My opinion on Kentucky is officially this: they are a fun, borderline top-25 team that is extremely vulnerable to a Round of 64 upset.
#79 TCU at #10 Iowa State (-15), 12 PM ET, ESPN+. Only on here because Iowa State could really use a win after three Ls in a row.
NCAAW: #114 Oral Roberts at #57 South Dakota State (-12), 12 PM ET, CBSSN. Summit League title preview. Fun fun fun!
#92 Lipscomb (-5) at #206 Queens, 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Did you know that there’s a FIVE WAY TIE at the top of the ASun? These are two of the five.
#105 Troy (-1) at #162 Miami (OH), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Sun Belt/MAC challenge. #2 at #2 in the two leagues.
#63 UCF at #26 Baylor (-10), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Objectively, if I’m looking at UCF’s entire thing, they look like your typical fringe bubble team that ends up a 2 seed in the NIT if they choose to do that. Baylor is tracking towards a future 8 seed, I guess?
#89 Arkansas State (-2) at #138 Kent State, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Confusingly, this is #1 at #5. There’s probably something to do with home/away from last year but I’m too busy and lazy to look this up.
#124 South Alabama at #94 Akron (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. #3 at #1.
#143 James Madison (-1) at #207 Toledo, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. #5 at #3.
NCAAW: #54 Ball State at #65 James Madison (-0.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. I wish this game wasn’t buried at 2 PM. This is 19-4, 11-0 MAC Ball State at 20-4, 12-0 SB James Madison. The best of any of the Sun Belt/MAC games this weekend.
NCAAW: #36 Creighton (-3.5) at #55 Villanova, 2 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Villanova’s won five of six but remains outside of the Tournament field. A win here would help quite a bit.
NCAAW: #109 Albany at #96 Vermont (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at #2 in the America East race. Albany had lost five in a row against Vermont prior to this season but beat them 64-55 a month ago. Sweep?
#135 Milwaukee at #153 Cleveland State (-1), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. #3 at #1 in the Horizon League race. If you like offensive rebounds, this is your game; it’s #2 in OREB% at #35.
#57 Penn State at #28 UCLA (-9), 4 PM ET, Big Ten Network. Penn State just depresses me. Since NYD: 100th overall, 320th in 2PT% allowed, -8.9 per 100 on the boards. Really rough run of play.
#93 Samford (-1) at #137 ETSU, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at #4 in the SoCon. This has been a really fun league this year and the one place Samford seems vulnerable is the road.
NCAAW: #42 Colorado at #37 Iowa State (-5.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Both Colorado and Iowa State are squarely on the bubble. The Buffs likely need this more but ISU isn’t in the clear either.
#17 Illinois (-7) at #91 Minnesota, 6 PM ET, BTN. Not a huge impact in either direction here but it’s a potential seed line loss for Illinois.
#33 BYU at #56 Cincinnati (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN2. Cincinnati is shooting 26.1% from three since New Year’s Day and has the 236th-best offense in that time. I have no idea what deity they angered, but it is a vengeful one.
#169 UNC Asheville at #98 High Point (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at #2 in the Big South. We can only hope this is the eventual title game!
#19 Ole Miss (-6) at #83 LSU, 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. This is the SEC version of Illinois/Minnesota. An LSU win doesn’t really help them but it would drop Ole Miss a seed line come March.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 9
THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEK OF THE MONTH?
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-0.5) at #4 Texas, 2 PM ET, ESPN. Armageddon again. Texas already tangled with SoCar earlier in the season and completely dominated them in every facet but making shots, which made for a very weird viewing experience. If you’ve forgotten, Texas took 28 more shots, got just five fewer free throws, had a 13% edge in OREB%, won the turnover battle by 10….and lost, 67-50. These things happen when you somehow shoot 9/27 at the rim.
I imagine Texas will be very hungry to even things up in the rubber match, so let’s look at what South Carolina can do differently to prevent a second shot volume apocalypse. Thanks to all of Texas’s missed shots, whenever South Carolina did get one back, they were able to score consistently in transition because Texas commits so much to the boards. If they protect the ball a little better here, they could pull off the sweep. Alternately: if you’re going to turn it over, they better be dead-ball ones. In the first game, this somehow saved South Carolina because 12 of the 22 TOs were of the dead-ball variety. Fascinated to see how this goes.
A GAMES
NCAAW: #19 Michigan at #23 Michigan State (-2), 2 PM ET, FS1. The rivalry takes another turn here, as Michigan needs some wins to back up their great metrics and needs to avenge their awful performance in the first edition of this yearly series. This is a simple game to me: can Michigan generate consistent offense in the paint? If so, it’s a game; they’re 14-3 when scoring 30+ points in the paint (2-4 otherwise). The problem: Michigan State’s still 5-4 when they allow 30+ in the paint.
NCAAW: #17 Tennessee at #15 LSU (-4), 4 PM ET, ESPN. Tennessee finally, FINALLY got their signature win by defeating UConn on Thursday, a win so good that it’s going to be incredibly hard for them to follow it up. Now, it helps them that LSU had to play a road game the same night, but two tank-emptying games in a row is a very hard task. Encouraging to me would be the fact that Tennessee generated 14 second-chance points in the 89-87 loss the first go-around, which remains Tennessee’s only loss (13-1) when generating 13+ second-chance points.
Super Bowl, 6:30 PM ET, FOX. Fine, the Eagles are gonna win this one. For real. This definitely won’t be me on Monday, no sir!
B GAMES
NCAAW: #52 Stanford at #39 Louisville (-6.5), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. A level higher than I expected, but both of these teams are still pretty interesting in the last few weeks of the season. A Stanford win here probably puts them squarely on the bubble, which is intriguing.
D3: #5 Washington St. Louis at #2 NYU (-6.5), 2 PM ET, streaming. This is the lower-division game of the weekend. I waxed poetic about NYU a couple of weeks back, but WashU’s Hayden Doyle rocks. He’s shooting 55% 2PT/42% 3PT and has shot 47% on midrange jumpers this year, per Synergy.
#25 Ohio State at #41 Nebraska (-1), 2 PM ET, BTN. Torvik’s Daycast tells me that a Nebraska win here puts them at 84% to make the Tournament, which is the outcome I’d obviously like every single year.
NCAAW: #26 NC State at #22 Florida State (-4.5), 2 PM ET, The CW. NC State is somehow still 10-1 in ACC play, meaning that with just one Notre Dame slip-up…perhaps on February 23 against NCSU…they could win the ACC. That would be pretty cool! This is a toughie, though.
NCAAW: #20 Alabama (-0.5) at #32 Mississippi State, 2 PM ET, SEC Network. Over the last 10 games, this is #26 at #30. State has a very minor advantage here in that this is their second straight home game, while it’s Alabama’s second straight road fixture.
NCAAW: #35 Indiana at #28 Minnesota (-4.5), 3 PM ET, BTN+. Just your garden-variety good Big Ten game. I would like to see which bench contributes more here because I think the starters are about dead-even.
NCAAW: #18 Maryland (-5.5) at #45 Washington, 4 PM ET, BTN+. A hearty shoutout to Washington’s Elle Ladine, who has been tremendous in B1G play. 18.1 PPG with a 113 ORtg on 27% USG, shooting 56% 2PT/39% 3PT. She’ll need all she’s got to pull this upset off.
C GAMES
#48 Xavier at #53 Villanova (-3), 12 PM ET, FS1. Villanova’s at-large hopes are probably cooked, but Xavier stands to gain a lot from a potential win here. They also seem like a house of cards. They’ve gone 6-4 and have played like a top-40 team over the last 10 games…but that’s because they’re +5.8% in 3PT% and get way more free throws. -3.8% 2PT%, -6.5 OREB% per 100 is really tough to overcome long-term.
#68 Rutgers at #18 Maryland (-12), 12 PM ET, BTN. Is Rutgers BACK? I have no idea, but hey, they’ve gone 4-3 in their last seven and have played like a top-40 team with encouraging turnover/rebound numbers.
#144 Temple at #42 Memphis (-14), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. Using our friend’s Expected Scores tool I wrote about with regards to Gonzaga, Memphis’s expected record based on their game-to-game stats is 14-9. Look, if you’re into them and think they’re way better than what KenPom says, fine, go for it. Not my problem. I remain out.
NCAAW: #21 Georgia Tech (-11) at #71 Boston College, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Georgia Tech needs to avoid a stumble here; they’ve gone from 15-0 to 19-4 but still don’t have a Q3 loss.
NCAAW: #104 Tulane at #117 North Texas (-1.5), 2 PM ET, ESPNU. #4 at #3 in the AAC race. Sounds like a weird one to highlight but hey, they’re solid teams.
NCAAW: #33 Richmond (-9.5) at #88 Duquesne, 2 PM ET, CBSSN. Duquesne is plausibly the fourth team in the three-team Atlantic 10. Maybe. Also, we’re moving to at least a two-bid A10 between Richmond and George Mason. Can St. Joe’s get there?
NCAAW: #10 North Carolina (-12.5) at #69 Clemson, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Here in case UNC slips up. I straight-up Do Not Like the UNC offense this year, FWIW.
NCAAW: #3 UCLA (-11.5) at #34 Oregon, 4 PM ET, BTN+. Should be higher but UCLA is >90% to win and we follow rules here. Think of it as a Round of 32 game between a 1 seed and an 8.
ONE TO PLAY US OUT!
Legendary groove. Run to this if you’re a runner.