Week 13 Weekend Watchlist: Pay Attention
If the ball is round, there certainly will be sound
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
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SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 1
A GAMES
#4 Florida at #6 Tennessee (-3), 12 PM ET, ESPN. The best game of the weekend is the very first one. Tennessee has lost three of four and is experiencing the type of mini-slump that freaks fans out and causes existential fear of what is or is not possible with a core, coaching staff, philosophy, etc. Meanwhile, Florida is 18-2 but is about to experience two hellish road battles in the next week with Tennessee and Auburn.
Situationally the “nobody beats Tennessee THREE! times in a row” factor is fairly real but so’s the part where Tennessee got stuffed in a locker a few weeks ago by this same team. Tennessee actually rebounds very well, despite fan whimpering, and generally fares well in the turnover battle. This is about two things: can they find the easy twos they couldn’t produce the first time around, and can they hit an uncontested three? FWIW I don’t think any team’s going to continue to shoot 22% on jumpers (as Tennessee has over the last two affairs).
#2 Auburn (-6) at #22 Ole Miss, 2 PM ET, ESPN. I guess at this point it’s an open competition of who, if anyone, can beat Auburn. I don’t enjoy that this is now reliant on Chris Beard, but whatever, here we are. With this core in place (loosely defined as Broome/CBM/Jones), the only teams that have been able to defeat the Tigers somewhat often have been top-25 offenses. 23-24 and 24-25 Auburn are 7-5 against these teams (still obviously really good), 39-4 against all others. Ole Miss: 46th. Doubt.
#8 Kansas (-1) at #28 Baylor, 4 PM ET, ESPN. I think Kansas really does need Dajuan Harris, but through four games, they’ve potentially backed their way into a much better offense without KJ Adams. Lineups sans Adams this year are dropping 123.5 points per 100 possessions, shooting 59% on twos (69% at the rim!), and take 5% fewer midrange twos while holding steady on rebounds and turnovers. The downside: the defense is a lot worse with Bidunga. I guess this is TBD?
#11 Texas Tech at #1 Houston (-10), 6 PM ET, ESPN2. Shameless self-promo here for paid subs.
The Texas Tech end of the equation is pretty interesting. Surprisingly, this is just the fourth top-25 offense Houston’s drawn this year and the second since November (#15 BYU on January 4). Only Auburn and BYU (who is much more 3PA reliant) also rank in the top 50 of both 2PT% and 3PT% among Houston opponents. Now, this same Texas Tech system got decimated last year to the tune of two 23-point losses, but JT Toppin is probably the best all-around player Houston’s faced since Johni Broome. All I’m saying is that this interests me more than UNC/Duke.
#10 Gonzaga at #23 Saint Mary’s (-1), 11 PM ET, ESPN. Evan Miyakawa released his new resume tool this week; I advise reading about it. This matters to our watchlist for a very specific reason: Gonzaga ranks 51st in terms of resume quality. In terms of Wins Above Bubble, the committee’s tool of choice, they’re 48th. Saint Mary’s profiles as a reasonably safe 6-8 seed right now. This is kind of a must-win if you’re Mark Few, no?
B GAMES
#33 Pitt (-1) at #75 Wake Forest, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. These two are trending towards being particularly fascinating March cases. Pitt is 33rd in NET and roughly tracks as a 10 seed or so, but is 5-6 against top-100 competition. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has atrocious computer numbers thanks to outings like beating #333 USC Upstate 85-80, #357 Western Carolina 82-69, etc…and yet: they are 15-6 with a top-40 WAB. I don’t know what to do with either of these teams and look forward to learning nothing.
NCAAW: #37 Oklahoma State at #11 West Virginia (-10), 12 PM ET, ESPNU. I’m looking forward to this one. Oklahoma State plays better against top-100 competition; WVU, not so much. My fear with West Virginia, who I adore, come March is that a turnover-dependent system struggles to win games or create consistent offense if they aren’t forcing turnovers.
#32 Creighton at #54 Villanova (-1), 1 PM ET, FOX. Feels like a non-negotiable for Villanova if they want to get their at-large resume, or whatever is left of it at this point, somewhat back on track. Meanwhile Creighton got left for dead around Christmas but is now 15-6, 8-2 BE and trending towards an 8 seed.
#30 Missouri at #25 Mississippi State (-6), 1 PM ET, SEC Network. Remove all Q4 games from one’s analysis and this is #25 at #19. I like this as a battle of extremes. Mississippi State projects to smoke Missouri on the boards here and Mizzou is the rare team that actually gets outshot from two…but they’re #1 in FT Rate going up against a State side that can and will get into foul trouble.
#15 Arizona (-4) at #56 Arizona State, 1 PM ET, CBS. I don’t plan on taking Arizona State seriously and neither should you, but against all odds, they do probably have one of the 50 best resumes in the sport right now, which means they’re a bubble team. They’ve also lost the turnover battle in five straight games, have topped 70 points once in their last seven, and could be on the receiving end of a shot volume whoopin’.
#17 Wisconsin (-3) at #51 Northwestern, 2 PM ET, FS1. I admit I’m not 100% sure how to take Wisconsin. The wins and overall efficiency is excellent but their defense remains problematic, and admittedly I’m still uncertain they can keep up their blistering 39% 3PT in conference play. But! They are playing a Northwestern offense that hates the concept of making shots.
#44 Vanderbilt at #40 Oklahoma (-5), 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. In terms of pure postseason leverage this one surely has to rank pretty high, no? Vanderbilt and Oklahoma are both bubble teams, functionally equal ones, with reasonably similar resumes. Vanderbilt has played far better than OU of late, but OU has elevated their performance against higher competition this year. Interesting game.
#21 Michigan (-5) at #71 Rutgers, 3:30 PM ET, FOX. This was going to be in the C tier but got elevated thanks to Ace Bailey going nuts against Northwestern the other night. I have to admit I just don’t find Rutgers fun at all to watch but Michigan is wildly exciting, even more so now that their defense has slipped a bit. Every game is a threat to be played in the 80s.
#37 Georgia at #7 Alabama (-11), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Objectively, sure, I should care more about this game between two Tournament teams. But away from home, Georgia has been awful, going 3-5 and having the 123rd-best offense in the sport, per Torvik. They turn it over on 25% of possessions away from home! 25%!
#31 BYU (-1) at #59 UCF, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Here’s your Anxiety Game of the Weekend. BYU and UCF both profile squarely on the bubble. BYU’s metrics are much more impressive, but UCF’s resume is significantly above BYU’s. It’s also a Something’s Gotta Give Game: UCF ranks in the 94th-percentile in second chance points on offense, but no one gives up fewer second chance points than BYU.
#13 Michigan State (-5) at #66 USC, 4:30 PM ET, Peacock. USC has begun doing something really interesting: playing without a center. Since Matt Knowling’s injury before the New Year, the center minutes have been split between Rashaun Agee (6’8” PF), Josh Cohen (6’10” PF), and Saint Thomas (6’7” wing). It’s resulted in them being a tremendous Chaos Watch. In January, per Torvik, USC had the 25th-best offense and 126th-best defense in the sport. They allowed a 61.7% (!!!!!!!!!!!!!) 2PT%…but also dropped a 56% 2PT and 36% 3PT on opponents. It’s like 5-out that’s not 5-out. I love watching it.
NCAAW: #62 Murray State at #42 Belmont (-8), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. This is 8-1 at 8-1 in the MVC, but for your purposes, please watch this to check out this tremendous player named Haven Ford for Murray. She’s 5’6”, is second on the team in rebounds, leads in assists, leads in steals, and shoots 39% from three. Awesome player. And she’s just a sophomore!
#39 North Carolina at #3 Duke (-15), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. The path to this being interesting whatsoever is very simple: Duke misses threes and UNC hits some. When UNC hits 35% or more of their threes under Hubert they’re 56-10 (35-30 otherwise); when Duke hits below 36% of theirs under Scheyer they’re 31-14 (41-6 otherwise).
#36 UConn at #12 Marquette (-8), 8 PM ET, FOX. Look, UConn fans: opponents have shot just 31.6% from three over your last three games. Some amount of regression is happening! I promise!
#61 Arkansas at #19 Kentucky (-10), 9 PM ET, ESPN. This is the other big marquee Coworker Game of the week. “Hey man, did you know that Calipari is going back to Kentucky for the first time? Isn’t that crazy? Do you think they’ll boo???” I mean, they probably will. Not my problem. As an actual basketball game I imagine it’ll be mildly depressing for everyone involved not named Kentucky.
#49 New Mexico at #43 Utah State (-6), 9:30 PM ET, FS1. This nearly made the A list because both teams have been just fantastic over the last month-plus. New Mexico is playing like a top-25 team with a top-10 defense. Utah State is more like top-40, but their offense is truly special, posting a 61% 2PT/41% 3PT over the last ten games. It’s only not in the A list because five games was already packed enough.
C GAMES
#87 Providence at #14 St. John’s (-14), 12 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Are we collectively breezing past the part where a Rick Pitino-led St. John’s is 18-3, 9-1 Big East? And might be an underdog twice more? Intriguing future 5 seed.
#344 Green Bay at #328 Detroit Mercy (-4), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Just making sure you’re still reading! Green Bay’s lost 17 straight and their coach still hosts a radio show.
#29 Clemson (-5) at #97 NC State, 1:30 PM ET, The CW. Only interesting if Clemson blows it, but indeed there’s a 32% chance they blow it.
#183 Maine (-3) at #269 Vermont, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is highly interesting to me as a plausible changing of the guard. John Becker and Vermont have won 28 in a row - TWENTY EIGHT IN A ROW - over Maine. Yet Maine is favored here, correctly so, and against top-300 opponents (14 games), Vermont’s had the 345th-ranked offense.
NCAAW: #170 Tennessee Tech at #139 Southern Indiana (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a battle for first in the OVC.
#156 UTEP at #116 MTSU (-6), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. This is not a battle for first in anything but since December 1, this is #103 at #101. UTEP finally seems to be clicking under Joe Golding.
NCAAW: #91 Temple at #79 UTSA (-5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. UTSA is quietly 8-1 in the AAC, 17-3 overall, and only owns a road loss to USF (earlier this week) over their last 11 games.
#73 George Mason (-2) at #117 Davidson, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Because I’m stupid, I do keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with George Mason thanks to having an openly bad offense, but…it’s probably not going to?
#60 McNeese (-8) at #200 Nicholls, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Closest projected McNeese game left on the schedule. By the way, against Q1-Q3 teams, McNeese has played like a top-50 team in America. We’re just not gonna see them play a game of consequence for a full month.
#90 Arkansas State (-4) at #178 Texas State, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Texas State has mildly underwhelmed for me, but they have the third-best offense in the conference and a fabulous star player in Tylan Pope. The Sun Belt has some stout groups this year, led by Arkansas State, of course.
#69 Liberty (-3) at #137 Jacksonville State, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. This is #2 at #1 in CUSA, at least by standings. Have to admit that CUSA is far wilder and flatter than I’d expected.
NCAAW: #131 Holy Cross at #105 Lehigh (-5), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. This one is for the Patriot League lead, which honestly means more in WBB than MBB. Both teams project as testy 15 seeds come March.
#74 Stanford at #47 SMU (-6), 6 PM ET, ACC Network. No, it will never be normal for this to be a conference game.
NCAAW: #98 Lamar at #108 Stephen F. Austin (-2), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Two best teams in the Southland going at it.
#364 Mississippi Valley State at #363 Arkansas Pine Bluff (-12?!?!?), 6:30 PM ET, streaming somewhere. This is the game of the year. Lowercase. The two worst teams in KenPom battle it out in front of an audience of several. In all seriousness, I’m just as glad this game exists as I am Tennessee/Florida. CBB’s for everyone.
NCAAW: #127 North Texas at #59 South Florida (-11.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is 8-1 at 7-2 in the AAC…which does technically mean it’s for the conference lead, I think? Though UTSA would take it with a win of their own.
#134 Utah Valley at #93 Grand Canyon (-8), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This Grand Canyon team is doing exactly what they should be doing: rounding into form by beating a bunch of teams they have 500% the budget of. Congratulations.
#16 Texas A&M (-6) at #77 South Carolina, 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Based on in-game stats from the Trilly Donovan Discord, we’d expect South Carolina to have at least one conference win by now, with the Mississippi State game being the most likely. They’ll be someone’s ‘bad’ loss very soon.
#99 Washington State at #79 San Francisco (-6), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Washington State’s season has slowed a bit for a very weird reason: they cannot beat an awful Pacific team. They’re 5-3 against other WCC teams and 0-2 against Pacific. San Fran, meanwhile, probably has to have this one to keep any at-large hopes going.
#98 UNLV at #85 Nevada (-6), 10 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Just glad it’s there. That’s my analysis.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2
WILL’S A+ INDULGENCE OF THE WEEK
Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium, 8 PM ET, FOX. I have been meaner about this over the years, but I’ve had enough of being told NASCAR is for hillbillies. First off: fine. Count me in! Even though I’ve been told I sound like I’m from Ohio. Secondly, a not-insignificant chunk of you people believe that wrestling is real, and I don’t make fun of you for that, do I?
Bowman Gray last hosted a NASCAR event in 1971 and has mostly survived as a local track of mild note. It is all of 0.25 miles long and is known as “The Madhouse”. It has entirely flat corners. There is not a single soul in the field tomorrow that has raced on something like this in anything resembling what the Cup Series runs, and I am tremendously excited to see how it goes.
A GAMES
NCAAW: #17 Ole Miss at #21 Vanderbilt (-0.5), 3 PM ET, SECN+/ESPN+. Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes dropped 53 earlier this week, which instantly puts her in Valhalla status and should earn her far more looks for national awards that she genuinely deserves. All-American? Why not. Against top-100 competition, Vanderbilt has played down a bit (31st, per Torvik) while Ole Miss (10th) has played up. I do worry about a rebounding blowout in OM’s favor here. Then again, Mikayla Blakes.
NCAAW: #16 Kentucky at #14 Oklahoma (-3.5), 4 PM ET, SEC Network. This Kentucky team is pretty awesome, which I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by: it’s half of last year’s Virginia Tech team that I loved. OU has had an interesting week with an amazing 107-100 road loss to LSU that included a player ejection, but they actually match up pretty well from a shot volume view here and should have the edge inside.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #24 Oregon at #25 Michigan (-2.5), 12 PM ET, BTN+. Michigan blowout at home to MSU notwithstanding, I am getting pretty concerned about Oregon as it pertains to March. 16-5 is 16-5 but they don’t hit threes, don’t get to the free throw line, are a net-neutral on the boards, and seem heavily reliant on their defense. This isn’t a bad thing in a vacuum but reminds me a lot of MBB’s Ole Miss, who I also don’t trust.
NCAAW: #34 Nebraska at #39 Indiana (-1), 12 PM ET, FS1. Not as Gotta Have It as it initially appeared earlier in the week for each, but a home loss pushing Indiana to 13-8, 5-5 B1G would look rough. I don’t know if I trust Nebraska yet more than being a plainer version of Good, but they are that.
NCAAW: #30 Illinois at #22 Maryland (-5), 1 PM ET, BTN+. The Big Ten’s wonky conference schedule means this is the third game in six days for the Illini and their second straight road affair. As such, the situational value is obviously with Maryland, but Shyanne Sellers still doesn’t seem fully healthy and the Terps turned it over on 32% of possessions against Penn State.
#24 Ohio State at #18 Illinois (-5), 1 PM ET, CBS. Boy, I guess! I definitely guess. Thanks to injuries for the Illini, this is somehow 5-5 at 6-5 in Big Ten play, but even as OSU rescues their season I’m still not a firm believer. The last three wins have featured OSU losing the turnover battle while opponents shot 33%, 28%, and 31% from deep. I mean, maybe they’ve turned a firm corner and I’ll look like an idiot, who knows.
NCAAW: #5 USC (-11.5) at #31 Iowa, 1:30 PM ET, FOX. This is a plausible season-rescuer for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are now 14-7 and have the resume of an 8/9 seed, which is not what I thought would happen a month ago. Their offense is kind of figuring things out but they’ve gotten unlucky on opponent 3PT%. This is the exact type of game I could see USC losing, but it’s also the type of game I could see Iowa losing by 17.
NCAAW: #33 Mississippi State at #13 LSU (-9.5), 2 PM ET, SEC Network. How much you trust LSU and believe in them probably depends on how important you think rebounding is. LSU’s first shot offense is frankly very ugly, but this is the #1 OREB% team by a mile, they defend the rim well, and they’re exceptional in transition. I guess what I’m saying is that they play like a Buzz Williams team.
NCAAW: #9 North Carolina (-9.5) at #46 Stanford, 3 PM ET, The CW. Stanford has to have this one. They’re 11-9, 3-6 ACC, and have put together a resume that suggests 4 seed in the NIT. The good news for them: this is a really tricky road trip for UNC after already playing Cal away on Thursday. The bad news: UNC is presumably not going to suffer from time zones here.
NCAAW: #12 TCU (-6) at #38 Iowa State, 4 PM ET, FS1. This Iowa State team seems remarkably resistant to coming together this year in the way I’d hoped, particularly on defense. But: of the available options, this is the one Big 12 team that could really give Sedona Prince a hard time inside. Against top-100 competition, ISU ranks 5th in DREB%, 6th in 2PT%, and matches up quite well with TCU in all the areas you need to. Aside from defense.
#104 North Dakota State at #120 St. Thomas (-2), 4 PM ET, CBSSN. Hell, it’s fun and I’m out of time.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #6 Notre Dame (-14.5) at #40 Louisville, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. On and available, and in Louisville’s defense, they’ve been weirdly successful at giving top-20 teams (UCLA, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech) a hard time this year.
#48 West Virginia at #58 Cincinnati (-4), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. So……are we sure West Virginia’s in the NCAA Tournament? 13-7, 4-5 B12, and losers of four of five. WAB has their resume in the 8-10 seed range and the metrics back it up, but another loss to shift that.
NCAAW: #24 Minnesota at #4 UCLA (-15), 3 PM ET, BTN. Top-25 versus top-25 but any game that has an expected margin of 15+ points probably won’t make a top group.
NCAAW: #17 Tennessee (-15) at #83 Missouri, 3 PM ET, SECN+/ESPN+. The best thing Tennessee can do for themselves is simply to not play top-end teams. They’re 0-5 (average margin of -3 points) against top-25 teams and 15-0 against all others (average margin of +30.9).
NCAAW: #7 Kansas State (-17.5) at #74 Kansas, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. This KSU team is simply a lot different without Ayoka Lee and this spread’s too high. The three games without her fully available: 12-point win over a bad Arizona State, road loss to a middling Colorado, overtime win at home over aforementioned Iowa State.
NCAAW: #65 Missouri State (-4) at #126 Illinois State, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. 8-1 at 7-2 in the MVC. Illinois State: surprisingly good!
#149 Purdue Fort Wayne at #122 Milwaukee (-4), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a future Horizon League title game preview. I think you guys would love watching Fort Wayne if you haven’t already.
#92 Bradley at #107 Northern Iowa (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Two months later than anticipated, regression finally seems to be hitting Bradley. They shot just 33% from deep in the month of January.
NCAAW: #44 Washington at #11 Ohio State (-15.5), 5 PM ET, BTN. This win alone would get Washington onto the bubble. But: Ohio State at home has been unstoppable on both ends of the court.
#46 Nebraska at #35 Oregon (-5), 7:30 PM ET, BTN. Bowman Gray. I’m tellin’ ya.