Week 13 Weekend Watchlist: The Super Bowl and Roman Empire Combined
Only sort of joking
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
You know the drill. These are always free. THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK is the one you need to fully clear your life’s schedule for. FIVE STAR games are terrific ones that you should try and watch most of if possible. FOUR STAR games are good-to-very-good and are worth your time if you flip to them. THREE STAR games are merely for the periphery. Flip to them if they get interesting late.
Tell your friends, by the way; everything helps.
Onward.
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#3 UConn (-4) at #36 St. John’s, 12 PM ET, FOX. If you would like to see the #1 team in the AP Poll lose anytime soon, this is your best shot prior to February 20. There’s also at least some evidence that St. John’s can be the team to crack the Clingan Code a little here. The lone truly surprising loss of the UConn season was a 75-60 decision at Seton Hall…which is the only team UConn’s played inside the top 30 of OREB%. St. John’s is the other team on the schedule who’s that dominant on the boards.
Then again, UConn won the board battle in that game; it was a horrid shooting day and a lot of Tristen Newton turnovers that provided the decision. Really, this is a simple equation to me: can St. John’s hit shots? If they can, game on; all it’s taken is a 50% eFG% or better and they’re 9-1. In games below 50%: 4-7.
FOUR STARS
This song. I wouldn’t call it a favorite, really, but a perfectly fine 8/10 song? Oh yeah.
THREE STARS
#56 Virginia Tech at #67 Miami (-2), 12 PM ET, ESPN. Very bored by these two. Look, guys, I know you can really shoot it. I’ve known that for years! Are either one of you interested in playing defense for a full 40? I guess I’ve got a hard time paying attention to/getting interested by these two teams when Clemson and Wake Forest do the same thing but better.
#96 George Mason at #93 UMass (-4), 12 PM ET, ESPN+. This is probably for the right to decide the fifth or sixth-best Atlantic 10 team, but it’s also useful as a point of highlighting how much more interesting the A10 is this year compared to last. In 2022-23 this is probably a battle for third.
#46 South Carolina at #69 Georgia (-1), 1 PM ET, SEC Network. Fun with numbers! Did you know that, per Torvik, South Carolina has the 8th-best defense in America over the last ten games? This is due to a variety of factors (Tennessee shooting like garbage sure helped), but perhaps the big one is that the Gamecocks prevent three-point attempts better than anyone else in the SEC. That helps when you’re about to play a Georgia team shooting 39% from deep in their last ten.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#29 Utah State at #24 San Diego State (-4), 3:30 PM ET, FOX. Utah State is playing like a team with its hair on fire at the moment behind star Great Osobor (19.5 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 7.3 fouls drawn per game), who would be the most obvious frontcourt star in the entire Mountain West if SDSU’s Jaedon LeDee (21 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 7.8 fouls drawn per game) didn’t exist. USU’s backcourt has shown a greater ability to score consistently, but of the four units at play in this game San Diego State’s defense is the best group.
Mostly this is another great argument for the Mountain West as America’s one true basketball conference. Is it the best one? No. Is it the high-end Division I conference that feels most similar to how it did 20 years ago? I’d say yes. Strap in for a great one.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #32 Green Bay (-3.5) at #65 Cleveland State, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is for the Horizon League regular season title, more or less. A Green Bay win here gives them a 1.5-game lead and a sweep of the near-certain second-place team, while a Cleveland State win puts them half a game up on Green Bay. I admittedly know more about Green Bay, who has a terrific offense, but both teams have more than shown their worth this year.
#35 Texas at #22 TCU (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. Exciting battle here, actually. These are two of the best teams in the nation at producing points off of turnovers. TCU averages 18.6 a game; Texas averages 17.1. To me this is all about which side takes better care of the ball. Worth noting that TCU’s 6-4 when opponents turn it over on less than 20% of possessions and 10-1 otherwise.
#43 Northwestern (-1) at #84 Minnesota, 2 PM ET, BTN. Battle of the underdogs. Also, serious credit to Ben Johnson. Are you aware that Minnesota is 17-3 ATS at the moment? And that they’re a win away here from moving to 14-7, 5-5 B1G? I still don’t think they’ll make the Tournament, but something like 18-13, 9-11 B1G counts as serious progress forward.
D3: #3 Randolph-Macon (-2.5) at #1 Hampden-Sydney, 2 PM ET, streaming. Non-D1 whopper of the week. Both of these teams are fantastic on defense, with Randolph-Macon only giving up 50.9 field goal attempts per game (best in D-3) and Hampden-Sydney allowing a Shot Volume of only 102 (22% OREB% allowed + 20% TO% forced).
THREE STARS
#58 Virginia at #32 Clemson (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN. Honestly, serious credit to Virginia for getting off the mat. This is not a terribly strong ACC by any means, but they’re 7-3 and 16-5 overall with a Quad 1 win and three Quad 2s under their belt. Still: you wanna make the Tournament, this win would go a huge way in making your case more reasonable. Same for Clemson, though their resume is in less dire straits than UVA’s.
#118 California at #111 Arizona State (-4), 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. …I don’t know, either. I guess this is my spot to discuss how Bobby Hurley is apparently a candidate at DePaul. Maybe that works out for him, I guess, but…that’s your guy? Bobby Hurley?
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#1 Houston (-5) at #15 Kansas, 4 PM ET, ESPN. This is the game that I think most casual college hoops fans will have the hardest time understanding. “Why is Houston favored at Kansas,” they’ll ask, especially when the point spread may be as high as it is. It’s a reasonable question! It also has a pretty reasonable answer. Kansas has played the #24 SOS; Houston has played #53. Kansas has pushed up a +11.6 Margin of Victory despite having a serious talent advantage over most opponents. Houston’s MOV is +21.2 despite not having that same talent advantage. Adjust Houston’s SOS as roughly being ~2 points per game worse than Kansas, add about 3-4 points for home court, and there’s your answer.
Now, I do think it’s unwise to give up on Kansas, particularly in the biggest game they’ve played this season. The very slim number of teams that have managed to crack the Houston defense (aka, 1+ PPP) have had some things in common. They got a little lucky on threes, but they took a bunch to begin with. They didn’t turn the ball over much. The problem for KU: they don’t take many threes and Dajuan Harris has a nasty 24% TO% rate. This is more or less a game where Kansas has to play against casting type. If Hunter Dickinson puts up a POTY game like he can, they can win. If Kansas shoots 40% from three, they can win. But this game simply isn’t what it appears on the surface, which is what makes it so intriguing.
#25 Colorado at #40 Utah (-1), 5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. This is just a garden-variety great basketball game buried on a network no one gets. This is a 39.5% 3PT% team heading on the road to play a Utah team that ranks in the top-50 nationally in threes made per game (8.9). Mostly it’s nice that Colorado has pulled out of their early January tailspin and has won four of five. Utah, who’s lost five of eight, badly needs to do the same. Worth noting that Utah has been down two starters for the last five games, in which they went 2-3.
FOUR STARS
#31 Florida at #47 Texas A&M (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Florida finally got the signature win they’ve waited three months for by winning at Rupp on Wednesday night thanks to a plus shooting exhibition. The problem: is that repeatable? Florida’s gotten burned on really bad 3PT% luck defensively (38.5%) away from home this year, but they take relatively few threes on their own. I feel like that’s a bad way to create the variance you need for a traditional upset script.
#21 Oklahoma (-3) at #74 UCF, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. UCF is unwatchable on offense as ever, but this is legitimately one of the very best defenses in America. It’s a shame it gets wasted. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s awesome non-conference offense has largely withered away, which isn’t great in a game you know will be a rock fight.
#52 Maryland at #17 Michigan State (-8), 5:30 PM ET, FOX. Playing with Torvik tools time: did you know that over the last 10 games, Maryland rates as the 31st-best team in the nation? Not ideal for them that MSU is 15th, but hey, you take that win happily after how bad you looked to begin the season. (Kentucky is 32nd and Baylor 34th, for context.)
THREE STARS
#76 Richmond at #92 VCU (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPNU. This is A-10 first-place Richmond attempting to stay on top of the league while visiting one of the toughest places to play in college hoops. These are also two terrific defenses and two offenses that frequently sputter, so it should be close and low-scoring.
#95 Samford (-1) at #138 Chattanooga, 4:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Arguably the two best in the SoCon are doing business on a Saturday afternoon in Chattanooga. I probably should go to this game but will not.
6-8 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#54 Drake at #38 Indiana State (-5), 6 PM ET, ESPN2. Look: I get you’re gonna be tempted quite a bit by The Other Game. The Other Game is the one getting all of the attention, eyeballs, and clicks. It is, objectively speaking, the one that probably Means More to the general populace and to the NCAA Tournament. BUT! Let me tell you about this beauty. Because, observing this with as little bias as I possibly can, this is better than Duke/UNC.
Hear me out. For one, the projected final score is 81-76, a full six points more than The Other Game. This game features the very best shooting team in all of college basketball in Indiana State, who ranks 3rd in 3PT%, 2nd in 2PT%, and 4th in FT%. I’ve never seen anything quite like it, particularly at this level. (It’s like 2017-18 Villanova for the Midwest.) Drake, meanwhile, has maybe the premier tall guard in mid-majordom in Tucker DeVries (20.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), a guy averaging nearly 22 PPG over his last 10 on 51% 2PT/42% 3PT% shooting splits. Basically:
#12 Duke at #7 North Carolina (-6), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. If you need a sell to watch this game, I feel like you’re in the wrong place. Next!
FOUR STARS
#34 Cincinnati at #27 Texas Tech (-3), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Not sure if people realize this, because I don’t know how pervasive Cincinnati basketball is these days. Did you know they’re top 10 in both OREB% and DREB%? They’re creating a +14.8 rebound margin per 100 opportunities in an average game. That’s pretty tough to overcome night after night! This could be a toughie for Texas Tech, then, who’s 5-4 when they lose the rebounding battle and 11-0 otherwise.
#5 Auburn (-6) at #61 Ole Miss, 6 PM ET, SEC Network. I would love nothing more than to not do this very thing but I’m admitting defeat on Ole Miss. They are good. I don’t think they’re 18-3 good, but after they played an atrocious non-conference schedule and got blown off the court by the first good team they played in Tennessee, I figured they’d be a lost curiosity by March. Not the case, as they now have three wins over Top 50 teams. I would still like to place a bet on them slipping to an 11 seed/First Four territory, though. I don’t trust them that much.
NCAAW: #41 Michigan at #36 Penn State (-2.5), 6 PM ET, BTN. Delightful guard battle here between Michigan’s backcourt of Laila Phelia (16 PPG) and Lauren Hansen versus Penn State’s three-headed monster of Makenna Marisa (15.4 PPG, 43% 3PT), Shay Ciezki (14.3 PPG, 41% 3PT), and Taylor Valladay (11.5 PPG, 53% 3PT).
THREE STARS
#119 South Florida at #75 North Texas (-7), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Hey there! Are you aware of who leads the AAC at this moment? The conference with Florida Atlantic, Memphis, and SMU in it? Well, it’s a three-way tie. FAU’s in it, but so are South Florida and Charlotte. In Year One of Amir Abdur-Rahim, USF is 14-5 and has emerged as a serious title contender. Our friend Trilly Donovan called this the best hire of the offseason and I think he was right.
#9 BYU (-11) at #132 West Virginia, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Look, like it or not, every BYU game is probably gonna end up on the Watchlist going forward. Every single game is exciting in some fashion.
#81 Syracuse at #41 Wake Forest (-7), 7:45 PM ET, The Dang CW. My preseason pick of Tournament Syracuse appears unlikely to come through, but I have really enjoyed the Judah Mintz show. 19.2 PPG, 6.5 fouls drawn per game, plays every possession as if it is life or death. A shame that the supporting cast surrounding him isn’t helping all that much. I’m also vibing big time with Wake’s Hunter Sallis (18.1 PPG last 10 games), who Gonzaga really could use right about now.
8-10 PM ET
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#6 Tennessee (-2) at #23 Kentucky, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN. Tomorrow morning, all paid subscribers will get a full preview of this game, which is looking like it’ll come in around 3,000 words. I think that’s pretty good, frankly.
The closer we get to March, I’ll try and do full(er) previews of each week’s six-star game(s), though this has the intended effect of knocking out two birds with one stone. See you tomorrow morning…well, before noon.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #3 Iowa (-5.5) at #26 Maryland, 8 PM ET, FOX. I’m willing to make the argument right here, right now that this - the 8-10:30 PM ET window on Saturday night - is the single best window we’ve seen all season. It may end up being the best of the pre-NCAAT year on both sides. You’ve got Tennessee/Kentucky, you’ve got Iowa State/Baylor (to come), and you’ve got this, a matchup between Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes versus a Maryland team beyond desperate to earn their Signature Win. This carries with it a beautiful air of desperation for the Terps: a loss here and your season is truly on the ropes. A win and you do the very best thing you can do to cement a Tournament bid. They’re ESPN’s last team in the field as of the time of writing.
#13 Iowa State at #16 Baylor (-3), 8 PM ET, ESPN2. This is the third-best game of the evening window, which says more about the quality of the other games than it does the lack of quality here. I’m really excited to see how Baylor’s fabulous offense handles an Iowa State defense that is hellbent on making life miserable for all oncomers. I’m also pretty intrigued to see what a good-but-incomplete Iowa State offense does against a Baylor defense bleeding points in the paint.
FOUR STARS
#33 Mississippi State at #8 Alabama (-9), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. When this was played at State a month ago, the only thing preventing a State upset was a complete meltdown at the free throw line in the final four minutes. I’d almost call that game a pure draw and feel like they might have some value here…but at the same time, getting this Mississippi State offense to act its age seems to be driving Chris Jans insane.
#44 Washington State at #60 Washington (-1), 9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. This is the last edition of this rivalry game to be played at Washington, with the actual final edition being the season finale for both in early March. That will be appointment television; this is merely pretty good. Every Washington State game going forward is probably worth mentioning because they possess a serious chance to make their first NCAA Tournament in 16 years.
THREE STARS
The Gunna part of Young Thug’s “Hot”. The beat is a five-star beat. Sue me.
LATE
FIVE STARS
#30 Saint Mary’s at #19 Gonzaga (-5), 10:30 PM ET, ESPN. I guess this is a discount version of last year’s game, but whatever, this is more or less for the WCC title and it’s two teams that have suddenly locked in to play their best basketball of the season. The last several Saint Mary’s visits to Spokane have not gone well (average scoring margin of -21 across five losses), and boy do they need this one. You could say the exact same thing about Gonzaga, who’s played quite well over the last month but carries with it an unusual lack of offensive upside compared to previous Gonzaga teams. For a nightcap, this is pretty great stuff.
FOUR STARS
Taco Bell. Always there for you, no matter what. Never great, never bad.
THREE STARS
#50 Oregon (-1) at #98 UCLA, 10 PM ET, ESPN2. As awful a season as this has been for UCLA, they’ve rounded into better form as of late and at least look like a mid-pack Pac-12 team. Special credit must go to Adem Bona, who’s putting up 12.7 PPG over the last 10 with a bonkers 1.7 steals/game + 2.5 blocks/game. Among high-major players he’s got the fifth-highest combined Stock% (steals + blocks) in hoops right now.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 4
Is not Super Bowl Sunday, but is Pro Bowl Sunday. Which I found out via an ad while writing this that it’s flag football now?
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #8 Indiana at #14 Ohio State (-1.5), 12 PM ET, FS1. Welcome to Big Ten Sunday, baby. Your reward: the best non-Iowa teams in the Big Ten, and two legitimate Elite Eight/Final Four threats, going at it right as you get out of church. Not half bad!
I think that most are generally aware of how fun these two offenses are, but maybe you need a reminder. Indiana is the second-best shooting team in America behind Iowa, sitting at 58% on twos and 40% (!) on threes. I cannot get enough of the two-headed killer combo of Mackenzie Holmes (20.4 PPG) and Sara Scalia (15.5 PPG, 44% 3PT). Likewise, Ohio State’s fabulous Jacy Sheldon (17.6 PPG) will aim to lead a top-20 attack to a huge victory in the B1G race. More than anything else, I think this is basketball the way it should be: equal amounts quality guards and quality forwards played at reckless speed.
#2 Purdue (-1) at #11 Wisconsin, 1 PM ET, CBS. I haven’t checked, but there is a thing I am certain of, which is that media members are rushing to give up on Wisconsin for the crime of losing at Nebraska. Have I actually seen this with my own eyes? Not yet, but it’s out there. Anyway! What a banger this is. This is #1 at #7 in offensive efficiency. It’s also a great test of how real a few things are. Can Wisconsin repeat last year’s Edey strategy - largely double-teaming him and forcing him into just 9 FGA - without committing a bunch of fouls or allowing Purdue’s shooters to victimize them? On the other end, Wisconsin’s offense isn’t excellent at any one thing, but it also has no obvious vulnerabilities…which could be problematic for Purdue.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #11 Virginia Tech at #31 North Carolina (-0.5), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. Three terrific scorers at play here. Most are already aware of Elizabeth Kitley (22.4 PPG) and Georgia Amoore (17.6 PPG) of Virginia Tech, but more should know about Deja Kelly (16.4 PPG) of UNC, who has the capability of putting the team on her back and dragging them to the finish.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #40 Miami at #50 Florida State (-3.5), 11 AM ET, The CW. An 11 AM Eastern game on the CW is real “you don’t love basketball like I, the protagonist of history, love basketball” territory. But hey, good game here if you’re awake.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #18 Kansas State at #5 Texas (-10.5), 2 PM ET, FS1. There’s some potential of a Wrong Team Favored deal here, but I just watched Texas house a very good Baylor team on the road last night and was deeply impressed. Either way, this is 20-2 at 19-3, and while Kansas State will greatly miss Ayoka Lee (injured through mid-February) they’ve still got Serena Sundell and a good supporting cast. But really, this game is for Madison Booker, arguably your new frontrunner for Big 12 Player of the Year.
NCAAW: #6 Utah (-2.5) at #22 Washington State, 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Excellent! Little more to it than that. Utah keeps taking unfortunate, close losses that are harming their resume but also make them a great buy-low bet, while Washington State is a 6 seed with an 8 seed’s resume and is therefore going to be a pretty dangerous draw come March.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #42 Ole Miss at #1 South Carolina (-23.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. I guess I’m listing every South Carolina game here now. I do think you should watch them play for the simple reason that what they’re doing very rarely happens, especially now in a women’s college basketball landscape with greater parity than it’s had in a while. South Carolina is 20-0 and has played four top 25 teams; they’ve beaten them by an average of 15 points per outing. They’ve had exactly one game all season where it felt like the outcome was seriously in doubt; that was last week with LSU. I mean.
NCAAW: #17 Colorado (-5.5) at #59 Washington, 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. This Colorado team has the vibes of a super-special Team of Destiny deal where they do something they’ve never done before, which is make a Final Four. Even adding the fourth Elite Eight ever to their school’s resume would be a huge win.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #60 Missouri at #34 Tennessee (-10.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Kellie…keep winnin’. It’s all I ask. Just keep winnin’.
NCAAW: #23 USC (-6.5) at #69 California, 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. We’re not gonna get to see JuJu Watkins in college forever, so might as well enjoy it while it lasts. All four years of it.
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #9 UCLA at #2 Stanford (-8.5), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. I hate that this comes at the near-end of a 4,000+ word article about the best games of the weekend, because there’s a great argument for this to be the Six-Star Game of the Week. After all, if you follow the women’s AP Poll, this is #7 at #4 in a historic rivalry that may be going away at season’s end. It features arguably the single most impactful player in the sport (Stanford’s Cameron Brink, averaging an insane 0.41 Win Shares/40) to go with a UCLA team that might not have an All-American but arguably has three of the sport’s 100 best players.
This feels like a 40-minute brawl in the paint, of which I’d certainly favor Stanford, but if UCLA can find a way to exploit Stanford from the perimeter (they certainly can) then this game gets really interesting. I know better than to bet against Stanford making good in a huge game like this, but don’t sell UCLA short.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #29 Mississippi State (-1.5) at #61 Texas A&M, 4 PM ET, SEC Network. Jerkaila Jordan Appreciation Post time. What a terrific all-around player, one who will get lost in the SEC shuffle among the various South Carolina/LSU stars but one who is fantastic in her own right. 16.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.3 SPG with a 111 ORtg on 26% Usage for a State team that has had a heck of a time finding consistent scoring outside of her and Jessika Carter. Together, they’re creating a State team that looks pretty scary.
THREE STARS
Columbus, Ohio. I’ve been here twice, I think? Maybe three times? Every time I’ve been I’ve come away with the exact same conclusion: this is fine. Neither terrible nor very entertaining. It feels like a city where you would test out a new Wendy’s item.
LATE
FIVE STARS
Minneapolis, Minnesota. Maybe my single favorite city in these United States. I adore it to the point I’d deal with one (1) winter.
This song, because it came on while I was writing. PERFECT POP SONG. No notes.
FOUR STARS
#48 Providence at #42 Villanova (-4), 6 PM ET, FS1. This is mean, but whatever: hopefully Providence wins. Then I don’t have to keep seeing Borderline Top 40 Villanova and getting fooled into thinking they’re not an annoying close-losses-only team. Shape up or ship out. Preferably the latter, because you keep making analytics-minded people like me look like morons!
#55 Nebraska at #10 Illinois (-10), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Nebraska has been an all-systems failure away from home, with the offense and defense taking a huge dive. I guess the defense is the one I find wildly alarming. How are you ranking 277th in defensive TO% AND 295th in defensive rebounding away from home? You’re getting smoked in pure shot volume every time you take the court. Stop it.
THREE STARS
The Busch Clash, 8 PM ET, FOX. I loved this event the first time they did it. The third time around it feels pretty goofy, but I’ll still watch. The NASCAR Netflix series is good, by the way.