Week 14 Watchlist: Every Moment's a Little Bit Later

I sincerely miss those heavy metal bands

The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week

No essay this week; I have two pretty large and intensive pieces coming out this week, one on Michigan (Tues/Wed), one on Indiana and Mike Woodson (Thurs/Fri). We also have a lot of games to talk about and I have a lot of actual work to do. Onward!

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 3

A GAMES

NCAAW: #8 Duke (-5) at #26 NC State, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Two teams with the same record (17-4) but much different ways of getting there. Duke is dominant on the boards and has a top-three defense, generating just enough shooting to get by. NCSU runs up huge turnover differentials and avoids foul trouble to go with quality deep shooting. As the favorite, I like focusing more on Duke. In Duke’s four losses, they’ve shot below 50% from two, and they’re 2-3 when the opponent gets 19 or more free throw attempts. Easier said than done for NCSU, who sits 199th in FT Rate.

#7 Iowa State at #10 Kansas (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Iowa State is in a skid and would presumably love to avoid a slide, as deemed by the Law Firm of Parrish and Norlander. Need an easy reason to explain why? Two numbers: -9, -15. That’s Iowa State’s point differential on second chance points over the last two games. That, along with a trend showcasing struggles in transition defense, lets you know why they’re at where they’re at.

Kansas only has one consecutive loss, but it feels like several. Their recent Slide™ has consisted of three games they absolutely should’ve won but only one they did. This explanation is tougher to nail down, but one thing that’s not helping is giving up 70! free throw attempts across the last three games. Whoever loses this game is going to feel real, real bad, which is why I think you need to watch every second.

B GAME

#61 North Texas (-2) at #105 UAB, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I have waxed poetic about this North Texas team, though they took a nasty loss to UTSA Saturday. I haven’t as much about my beloved UAB Blazers. Since telling Greg Gordon to hit the road in mid-December, they’re 9-3 and 72nd on Torvik (19th offense, 217th defense).

C GAMES

#207 Lamar at #210 Southeastern Louisiana (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is ‘only’ for second in the Southland, but in a league where McNeese did finally lose a game, it does matter.

#271 Jackson State at #219 Southern (-6), 7:30 PM ET, streaming. #3 at #1 in the SWAC race.

#132 Charleston (-2) at #214 William and Mary, 8 PM ET, CBSSN. Two of the three teams tied for second. Hearty hat tip to William and Mary, who in Year One of Brian Earl is 9-0 at home and will have a real chance to win the CAA Tournament.

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4

A GAME

#19 Marquette at #16 St. John’s (-3), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. If Marquette wins this game, the remaining Big East race becomes very fun and chaotic. All of SJU, Marquette, and Creighton (!) would have just two losses for at least 24 hours, with UConn off until Friday at 8-3. SJU is an overwhelming thing in the paint and on the boards, with tremendous shot volume. All three losses have seen their opponent hold them to 30 points or less in the paint in regulation. Can Marquette, who allows 29.5 on average, hold strong?

B GAMES

#49 Vanderbilt at #5 Florida (-14), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Vandy took a nasty tumble at Oklahoma on Saturday, and the last team I want to face after getting punched in the mouth is a Florida team that just got suckerpunched by undermanned Tennessee. Brutal setup for Vandy, but as covered, Florida remains vulnerable to jump shooting regression, which could be deadly against a Vandy side that’s hit 11+ threes six times this season. Alternately, the Vandy who’s shot 24% or worse from three five times might show up.

#22 Kentucky at #21 Ole Miss (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Two VERY weird spots here. Kentucky lost Cal’s Grand Return; Ole Miss lost the Super Bowl at home to Auburn. I lend this section to my friend Gavin’s theory of conference play, which is that five-game samples are more meaningful than you think. Last five games: Kentucky (2-3) 30th, Ole Miss (1-4) 38th. I do lean the ‘Kats way but I don’t like either of these teams come March.

#55 Indiana at #14 Wisconsin (-10), 9 PM ET, Peacock. By the same token: Indiana (1-4) 64th, Wisconsin (3-2) 8th. Indiana can pull the shocker doing the only thing they ever do well, which is scoring in the paint. Wisconsin’s 5-4 when allowing 30+ paint points and 12-1 otherwise.

#25 Baylor at #9 Texas Tech (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Two truly improbable winners this weekend from two teams that were shorthanded beyond what either would’ve anticipated before the game started. It’s the rare double-underwhelming game, which probably defaults back to the base projection here, but worth noting Texas Tech is just 4-4 (with three of the wins over tomato cans) when the opponent shoots >35% from three. Baylor’s average is 36.2%, albeit 34.3% in B12 play.

#17 Michigan State at #28 UCLA (-2), 10 PM ET, Peacock. Dangerous line here. UCLA has been absolute nails at home this year, posting a +11.2 (!) turnover margin per 100 possessions. MSU’s held up well but did lose to USC over the weekend. If to-date TO margins hold (adjusted for competition) UCLA projects to be +7, which is hard for an MSU team without elite shotmaking to overcome.

#13 Arizona at #31 BYU (-1), 11 PM ET, ESPN. A similar phenomenon occurs here: BYU is way better at home, operating almost flawlessly on offense, while Arizona’s shooting issues have been a lot more problematic in road games. ‘Zona should have the shot volume edge as usual, but to me it’s not ideal that they’re 2-3 against the five top-50 3PA% opponents they’ve drawn. Weird team that I think will be just fine against their future 13-seed opponent but could easily blow it to…I dunno, 5-seed Michigan.

C GAMES

#8 Purdue (-6) at #67 Iowa, 7 PM ET, Peacock. I don’t care for this edition of Iowa, who will probably get whomped on the boards in this one, but Road Purdue is far different than Mackey Purdue. Road Purdue is 6-4, plays like the 30th-best team in the sport, and has serious turnover issues. Intriguing if nothing else.

NCAAW: #122 North Texas at #78 UTSA (-8.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. #2 at #1 in the AAC race. UTSA is undefeated at home and is a tantalizing 13 seed come March if they win the conference tourney.

#84 Georgetown at #46 Xavier (-8) , 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Georgetown: better than you think? Maybe?

#47 Utah State (-7) at #170 Wyoming, 8:30 PM ET, MWN. On here just in case Utah State has a hangover from Saturday.

#60 USC at #53 Northwestern (-4), 9 PM ET, BTN. Hard to measure appropriately how hard these two are heading in opposite directions, only more so now that Brooks Barnhizer is done for the year. Since December 1: USC 19th, Northwestern 57th.

#50 Boise State (-2) at #101 UNLV, 11 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Also two teams heading in opposite directions, and I must assume this is nearing the end of the rope for Kevin Kruger. Tough but it’s how it goes.

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 5

THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEK

NCAAW: #11 Ohio State at #3 UCLA (-11), 9:30 PM ET, Peacock. On one hand, breaking a game like this down is foolish. It should and will very likely come down to which stars outperform the other stars. Ohio State brings five double-digit scorers to the battle, but the player that matters most to the bottom line is Cotie McMahon. Does OSU get Good Cotie here, like the player that dropped 25 and 5 in a critical win over Illinois? Or do they get the Cotie that got in foul trouble, shot 5-16, and nearly cost Ohio State a game against Maryland?

Meanwhile, UCLA is deeper, better, and undefeated, yet still has their own concerns. As amazing as this Bruins team is to watch and experience, they still struggle with turnovers and have had an odd aversion to driving inside and playing through contact. The player I’m looking to here is Lauren Betts. At her best - 33 points on 15 shots, 7 rebounds, and four blocks in an 82-67 beatdown of Maryland - she is an unstoppable force that looks like the best player in the game. Yet she still can cough the ball up from time to time and has found herself in foul trouble in situations you wouldn’t expect. I am extremely excited for what this game might be.

A GAMES

#23 Missouri at #4 Tennessee (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Missouri has looked nigh-unstoppable over the last several weeks, causing me to reevaluate everything I know about Dennis Gates. I may well have to admit defeat here. But. BUT! I don’t think this level of play is sustainable. Over their last seven games, they’re shooting 41% from three and opponents are at 31%. This is while getting outshot from two and posting the 272nd-highest defensive FT Rate. I don’t know who is and isn’t available for Tennessee yet though, so this receives a grade of Incomplete.

NCAAW: #12 TCU at #7 Kansas State (-7.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This game is so good that it’s criminal it’s only the second-best women’s game of the night. On any other night of the week it would be the star of the show. I highly advise tuning in for at least some of this. KSU is still without Ayoka Lee, which is problematic when TCU has Sedona Prince, but the real X-factor is which team’s lethal shooter shows up. TCU’s Madison Conner (45.9% 3PT) might be the best deep shooter in the sport, but KSU’s Temira Poindexter (40.3%), Taryn Sides (47.7%), and Jaelyn Glenn (41.8%) will all have something to say. Plus: never, ever count out Hailey Van Lith.

B GAMES

NCAAW: #39 Iowa State (-5) at #75 Cincinnati, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Iowa State missed two giant opportunities to save their resume this past week. Now sitting at 15-9, 6-5 B12, they’ve probably gotta finish 5-2 to feel good about just making the Tournament at all. What a disappointing season for a core of players I really like.

#38 Oregon at #20 Michigan (-7), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Wrote this down before Oregon biffed a home game to Nebraska, so TIFWIW. I have a piece coming on Michigan tomorrow or Wednesday about how good their quality of shot in both directions is, which would likely make it hard for Oregon to come out on top here. They’re 29-8 over the last 1.5 seasons when they win the 2PT% battle and 11-10 when they don’t.

#46 Arkansas at #29 Texas (-8), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Arkansas temporarily gave their season some life on Saturday with a truly hilarious road win at Kentucky. Texas smoked LSU, which would be notable a few years ago. Let’s go with our five-game sample size: Texas 24th, Arkansas 60th…but Arkansas -6.5% 3PT has a lot to do with that. I don’t like this Texas team much.

#74 Colorado State at #42 New Mexico (-8), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. Colorado State had a weird start to the year, starting out 5-5. During that time: -5.2% 3PT, +8.4% 2PT. They are 9-2 since. During that 11-game run: +2.9% 3PT, +15% 2PT. They are way better than most computer-y services claim…yet so is New Mexico, who has played like a top-25 team during that same stretch with a top-5 defense. This is a great basketball game.

C GAMES

NCAAW: #59 Seton Hall at #36 Creighton (-8.5), 6 PM ET, Flo Hoops. #3 at #2 in the Big East, AKA the best non-UConn teams in the league. Creighton is safely in the field, but Seton Hall needs a big win like this one to feel good.

D2: #23 Southwest Minnesota at #16 Minnesota Duluth (-3.5), 6:30 PM ET, streaming. We have a lower-division recap/catch-up coming next week that will inform you about the Division 2 and 3 MBB teams to watch this year. (Maybe some NAIA if I have time.) These two will be on the list.

#87 Arkansas State (-4) at #190 Marshall, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 in the Sun Belt at one of the four teams tied for third.

#2 Duke (-17) at #112 Syracuse, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. What counts as a good showing for Syracuse here, assuming the very likely scenario in which they do not win the game? Losing by 10?

#43 West Virginia (-1) at #85 TCU, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. TCU is unwatchable, but they do win at home. Torvik rates them as the 52nd-best team in the sport at home…and 86th away.

D3: #11 Wisconsin-La Crosse at #6 Wisconsin-Platteville (-5.5), 8 PM ET, streaming. These two will also be covered in the lower-division grab bag. Both La Crosse and Platteville have excellent offenses, but it’s Platteville’s Logan Pearson who pushes them over the top. Pearson’s stats - 20.8 PPG, 60% 2PT, a miniscule 9.9% TO% - are all really remarkable for a guy with a 33% usage rate.

#13 Illinois (-6) at #71 Rutgers, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. For all the hubbub Rutgers is a refreshingly simple team: they are 9-1 when they make 53% of more of their twos and 2-10 when they do not. Illinois on average allows 44.5%.

#32 Creighton (-3) at #79 Providence, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Against all imaginable odds, Providence’s bizarre season actually has a little life. Win this and they’re 12-11, 6-6. I don’t think they matter for NCAAT purposes unless they finish 12-8 in the Big East but it’s less goofy than I would’ve guessed.

#127 Belmont at #92 Bradley (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Boy, all of that Bradley regression hit at once, huh?

#75 Wake Forest at #81 Stanford (-3), 11 PM ET, ESPN2. 8-3 at 7-4 in the ACC. Someone, legally, must win games in this conference.

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6

A GAMES

NCAAW: #1 UConn (-12) at #17 Tennessee, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. Yes, eventually, Tennessee’s gonna nab one of these. Probably not this one. But! Maybe. The two UConn losses have had deceptively simple explanations: opponents made a lot of threes. Notre Dame went 10-18, while USC went 9-15. If that’s your main issue, you’re going to be fine most nights. But for all UConn does exceptionally well, they draw fewer fouls than anyone in the nation (!) and allow a ton of three-point attempts. If Tennessee stays out of foul trouble, and if this is the night their numerous threes finally go down…hey, maybe.

#18 Maryland at #26 Ohio State (-2), 7 PM ET, FS1. As confounding as some of their results have been, Ohio State is deceptively simple to decode: make them shoot over the top of you and you’ll probably win more often than not. When the Bucks go above their season average of 34.9 points in the paint, they’re 11-1. Below: 2-8. They are also confusingly really bad in first halves, scoring just 34.7 of their 80 PPG in the first 20 minutes. For comparison’s sake, Texas A&M (one spot behind OSU in offensive efficiency) gets 35.7 of their 75.4 in first halves.

NCAAW: #14 Oklahoma at #16 Ole Miss (-2.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+/SECN+. Oklahoma is in the midst of what I’d call Fake Freefall: they’ve lost two in a row and three of four, so they must panic and change everything. All three losses were to top-15 teams and those teams combined to shoot 36-88 (41%) from deep, but PANIC! Plausibly something to keep in mind with an Ole Miss team that doesn’t shoot many threes and has to shot volume their way to big wins.

B GAMES

NCAAW: #20 Michigan (-1.5) at #37 Nebraska, 8 PM ET, Peacock. These are two opposite teams for March purposes. Michigan has great metrics but the resume of a 9 or 10 seed. Nebraska has the metrics of a 9 or 10 seed but the resume of a 7. Feels like a badly-needed win for Michigan if they can get it?

NCAAW: #32 California (-0.5) at #40 Louisville, 8 PM ET, ACC Network. Speaking of teams with meh metrics but a great resume: the Cal Bears. The Calgorithm has delivered a tremendous WBB team that hits timely buckets and turns many a game into a math problem; they average 18.5 more three-point attempts per 100 shots than their opponents. Tracking for a 5 or 6 seed.

NCAAW: #31 Iowa at #24 Minnesota (-3.5), 8 PM ET, BTN. Wonderful win for Iowa yesterday in defeating USC, the type of win that saves seasons and potentially tenures. This is a pretty obvious post-hype spot, though, coming off of that W with Minnesota coming off of a road loss to UCLA.

NCAAW: #23 Maryland at #29 Oregon (-0.5), 9 PM ET, FS1. Maryland, I dunno. Seems like they’re cratering a bit late in the year here and I am officially Worried because they were quite fun for a while there. Maybe they get off the mat in this one.

#24 Saint Mary’s (-4) at #70 San Francisco, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Has SMC perhaps been a tad lucky in WCC play? Sure; opponents are shooting 28.9% from three and 35.5% on midrange jumpers. But even removing that, they’ve played like a top ten team. They’re +19.2 on the boards per 100 possessions, +4.8 in turnovers, +7.7% 2PT%, have a top-20 defensive FT Rate…what they’re doing is every bit as impressive as what a Louisville is doing, for example. We should probably treat it as such!

C GAMES

NCAAW: #25 Florida State (-9.5) at #70 Virginia, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is on here because I like watching Ta’Niya Latson play basketball.

#119 Middle Tennessee at #123 Jacksonville State (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Hands up in the crowd, please: were you aware before reading this that MTSU and Jacksonville State are #2 and #1 in CUSA? And that there is a SIX WAY TIE for third place at 5-4? What a league.

NCAAW: #21 Alabama (-9.5) at #67 Florida, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. This is on here because I like watching Alabama’s two stars play basketball.

NCAAW: #13 LSU (-13.5) at #76 Missouri, 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. This is on here because I like watching Flau’Jae Johnson play basketball.

#248 Southeast Missouri State at #286 Morehead State (-2), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. SEMO is one of the three teams tied for second at 8-4, but Morehead leads this league at 9-3. Some things really don’t change, huh?

#213 Montana at #151 Northern Colorado (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is for the Big Sky regular season title, in all likelihood. The Big Sky as a whole has flown well under the radar this year but Northern Colorado profiles as an interesting potential 14/15 seed. Adjusted for schedule: 5th in offensive 2PT%, 5th in DREB%, positive turnover margin, positive on the boards. This being said, probably not ideal that their top statistical comp is 2012-13 South Dakota State.

#121 St. Thomas at #107 South Dakota State (-4), 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. Speaking of! Look: I am happy for any league who gets the contract most favorable to their terms, particularly one-bid leagues. But man, it’s pretty annoying that I straight up cannot watch 90% of Summit League basketball in the year 2025.

NCAAW: #22 Vanderbilt at #4 Texas (-16), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Yes, top 25 battle, but Texas is a giant favorite and I can’t place it higher because of that.

NCAAW: #97 Northern Arizona at #77 Montana State (-6.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Big Sky title game preview. Montana State is a really scary 13 seed come March if they win the league: +7.8 turnover margin against top-200 competition with multiple great perimeter shooters. Fairly similar to UC San Diego on the men’s side.

#154 UC Riverside at #56 UC San Diego (-10), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. We are KILLING IT with connections this week. Easier said than done for very obvious reasons, but the best way to stay in any game with UCSD is simply to protect the basketball. The Tritons are just 2-4 when they force fewer than 15 turnovers and 16-0 when they hit 15+.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 7

A GAME

#16 St. John’s at #35 UConn (-1), 8 PM ET, FOX. Regression finally, FINALLY hit in UConn’s favor on Saturday as Marquette posted the first shooting howler against the Huskies in some time. Now, UConn’s season has real life again and they profile as quite dangerous the rest of the way. I am intrigued to see if St. John’s and their tremendous away-from-home performance travels here. They’re just 5-3, but the three losses (Baylor/UGA/Creighton) are obviously very understandable ones, and they’ve allowed a 41.1% 2PT% in these eight games.

B GAMES

#59 USC at #8 Purdue (-12), 7 PM ET, FS1. This is the real test to me of how powerful (or not powerful) Nü-SC is. If you can win at Mackey, you are genuinely one of the 20 best teams in America and we should be taking you way more seriously for Selection Sunday. If not, no harm no foul, but this is a way more interesting game than #59 at #8 suggests on face value alone.

C GAMES

#37 VCU (-1) at #73 Dayton, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This has been a pretty dire season for Dayton, but they’re 11-1 at home and it’s the one place their offense has seemed fully functional.

NCAAW: #118 Illinois State at #84 Drake (-7.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. If Drake wins this they’ll get back into conference title race discussion, but I’m so impressed by Illinois State. 14-7, 8-2 MVC, winners of five straight.

#108 Saint Louis at #88 Saint Joseph’s (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. A-10 undercard. A fun and weird fact: Saint Joe’s is +16.5% in 2PT% at home this year yet has somehow lost four home games. Billy Lange!