Week 14 Watchlist: Once a Beautiful Dancer
Happy "college basketball exists" day
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
A hearty congratulations to any and all Eagles fans who read this newsletter. For the second time in seven SBowls (2022 Rams), the team I wanted to win won the game. Sometimes it’s nice to get one.
This is already very long, but welcome to all the people who are tuning in now that football is done. Praise be. I suggest you start here, which I’ll be writing a new version of later in the week.
Onward! All MBB rankings via KenPom. All WBB rankings via Torvik. All D-2 ratings via Massey Ratings. All D-3 ratings via D3 Datacast. All stats referenced in this one via any of KenPom, Torvik, Hoop-Explorer, Synergy, or CBB Analytics.
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 10
A GAMES
NCAAW: #14 Kentucky at #12 Ole Miss (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This is another odd day of hoop where there’s relatively few games being played but there’s two really good ones at the top that ensure we have something to recommend. SEC WBB is something I think pretty much everyone can get into this year. There’s a wide diversity of styles, from Texas’s bully-ball to Tennessee’s Loyola Marymount attack to Kentucky’s spread P&R to Ole Miss’s super-tight defense. I hear that something called “foot” “ball” ended for a while yesterday. Why not try this out? It’s fun.
#26 Baylor at #3 Houston (-11), 9 PM ET, ESPN. You will surely be shocked to hear this, but on Saturday, Houston was more or less equaled in the shooting department yet beat Colorado because they rebounded 46% of their missed shots. I got curious because I’m a sucker for naming things, so I’m introducing The Houston: when you shoot <50% from two (which they barely crested against Colorado), but rebound >40% of missed shots and win the game. Since COVID, Houston has done this 27 times. The next-closest team, Texas A&M, has 17.
B GAMES
#41 North Carolina at #29 Clemson (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN. One of the all-time spot purchases here if you like North Carolina. Clemson just pulled off their biggest home win since…well, ever? I’m looking through Clemson’s recent history of beating consensus top-five teams. 2025 Duke is clearly better than anyone Clemson has beaten since at least 1994 UNC, who was the top overall seed in that Tournament. A historical theory is that it’s near-impossible to get that up twice in a row, but simultaneously, UNC is an awful team to bet on getting up for a game. They’re actually getting outscored in first halves this year.
NCAAW: #24 Iowa (-1.5) at #40 Nebraska, 8 PM ET, BTN. I like when a team is really, really simple to figure out, because I am kind of stupid. So it brings me great pleasure to report the following: Nebraska is 10-1 when they make 7+ threes in a game and 6-6 when they do not.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #52 Auburn at #16 Oklahoma (-14.5), 8 PM ET, SEC Network. This Auburn season is probably lost thanks to some rough injuries, but OU’s offense has sputtered a little lately. You never know.
#266 Bethune-Cookman at #290 Texas Southern (-1), 8 PM ET, streaming. Best of SWACtion tonight. Every SWAC team has their own unique network that could cost money or could not, so you’re on your own for this one.
#180 Texas A&M Corpus Christi at #202 Lamar (-2), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Best of Southland action tonight. For the Southland tournament, keep an eye on this Lamar team. They match up fairly favorably to some mildly successful 15-16 seeds of years past, mostly because of their interior defense and offensive rebounding.
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11
A GAMES
#4 Tennessee (-2) at #22 Kentucky, 7 PM ET, ESPN. After the first game of this series, I was sent a chart by someone who coaches for one of these two programs. (I will not share who!) It was a map of all of Tennessee’s passing locations on their 45 three-point attempts. 37 - THIRTY SEVEN! - were above the free-throw line. Tennessee cannot do that a second time and win, particularly against a Kentucky defense that allows 30.4 paint points per game. When Tennessee goes north of 30 paint points, they’re 12-0. UK’s allowed 30+ in four of their last six, all losses.
#7 Purdue at #20 Michigan (-1), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Against Purdue the first time around, Michigan shot 3-22 on above-the-break threes, well below their season average of 34%. Obviously, that shouldn’t happen a second time, so my bigger question: how do you change what you did defensively? Purdue shot a stunning 20-27 on attempts at the rim or in the paint in the first game, pretty easily Michigan’s worst defensive performance of the season.
NCAAW: #8 West Virginia (-3.5) at #25 Baylor, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Quietly, Baylor is 10-2 in Big 12 play and is in a three-way tie for first. West Virginia, meanwhile, is one of the three teams tied at 9-3 for what I guess you’d call either second or fourth place. Huge game, and as with every single WVU game, it’s about how much havoc their defense can cause/if the opponent can take care of the ball. They AVERAGE 30.4 points per game off turnovers and are 14-0 when they score 26+ off TOs. Baylor hasn’t allowed over 18 points off TOs all season. Styles make fights!
B GAMES
#5 Florida (-4) at #31 Mississippi State, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I got curious and looked it up so you don’t have to. What happens to a team in the game directly following a road win over the AP Poll’s #1 team? I have to admit I am surprised by this: since 2015, they’re 13-0 in the next game. So…take Florida, I guess?
#36 BYU at #45 West Virginia (-3), 7 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. WVU’s offense has run into a bit of a wall lately; they’re 285th in eFG%, 340th in OREB%, and 347th in FT Rate over the last ten games. BYU could potentially be their salve here, as their defense is 97th-best over the last ten.
#1 Auburn (-11) at #48 Vanderbilt, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. How do AP #1 teams fare in the game immediately after their loss? Well, they’re #1 because they’re probably pretty good; they’ve gone 12-1 in the next game.
#10 Arizona (-5) at #58 Kansas State, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. My best guess at what’s behind Kansas State’s recent five-game win streak: significantly better defensive rotations. KSU’s opponents are shooting 46% on twos over the last five games and turning it over on 21% of possessions. I highly doubt KSU’s going to continue to shoot 43% on threes as they have over the last five, but it finally looks like the rosiest individuals thought it might.
#25 UCLA at #14 Illinois (-5), 8 PM ET, Peacock. Illinois remains a really weird team that I can’t get a grip on, but they do have a couple trends to watch more or less every time out: shots at the rim versus above-the-break three-point attempts. They’re 6-0 when they attempt more at the rim than they do ATB threes. They’re still 10-8 otherwise, but a team that shoots 30.8% on ATB threes versus 71.1% at the rim should perhaps drive the ball a little more.
#34 UConn at #30 Creighton (-5), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. UConn when they score 38+ points in the paint: 10-1. UConn when they do not do such a thing: 6-6. Perhaps something to keep in mind as they play a Creighton team who’s given up 38+ just four times this season (albeit once against UConn).
#38 Georgia at #15 Texas A&M (-8), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Another unstoppable force/immovable object game. TAMU averages 17 second-chance points per game; UGA’s given up that number just three times all season.
#6 Alabama (-2) at #32 Texas, 9 PM ET, ESPN. We’re on #SpotWatch here. Alabama is playing their second difficult road game in 72 hours; Texas has an air of desperation to them after losing two in a row and blowing a second-half lead to Vandy on Saturday. I won’t be surprised if Texas is favored here when the lines drop.
#59 Santa Clara at #21 Saint Mary’s (-9), 11 PM ET, ESPN2. The style of team that generally gives SMC the most trouble is the one that packs the paint and forces a lot of jumpers, along with being able to score consistently at the rim on the other end. Santa Clara can do the latter but not really the former.
C GAMES
#8 Iowa State (-8) at #67 UCF, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Generally, these road spots aren’t that troublesome for ISU (or that lucrative for UCF), but this is a UCF team that takes a lot of threes playing a Cyclones side where the one way everyone believes they can beat them is via backside threes. All five Iowa State losses have come in games where the opponent has made nine or more threes.
#200 Toledo at #158 Miami OH (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. 8-2 at 9-1 in the MAC. I am holding steadfast to my take from six weeks ago: this is the year Toledo wins the MAC Tournament because no one will pick them to do it.
#69 George Mason (-1) at #114 Saint Louis, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. George Mason is slightly favored to win the A10 regular season title, which rules, but quietly, Saint Louis is 7-4 in conference play and is surging.
#227 Southeast Missouri at #185 Little Rock (-6), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Two best teams in the OVC, which doesn’t mean as much as it used to.
#44 Pittsburgh at #46 SMU (-4), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. ANXIETY GAME OF THE WEEK! Pitt stands to save their at-large resume (somewhat) with a win here; SMU actually moves into the projected field at Torvik if they win this game. Huge.
#63 Penn State at #60 USC (-3), 9 PM ET, Big Ten Network. I imagine this one’s just for fans of the two teams, and possibly not even for Penn State fans right now.
#55 Indiana at #17 Michigan State (-11), 9 PM ET, Peacock. I’m aware I’m about to sound like an insane person: Indiana can get into the bubble mix with a win here. I pray they do not, because they are excruciating to watch.
#56 Northwestern at #39 Oregon (-6), 11 PM ET, BTN. Notable for one reason: if Oregon loses this, which isn’t that absurd of an outcome, they’d be 16-9, 5-9 B1G, with six losses in a row. Torvik would still track them as a 9 or 10 seed, but…are we sure they’re in?
#77 Colorado State at #52 Utah State (-6), 11 PM ET, FS1. #3 at #2 in the MWC race. Mountain West isn’t as juicy as usual but this is a fun one with an elite perimeter havoc team playing a CSU team that doesn’t turn it over much.
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12
A GAME
#118 Chattanooga at #96 Samford (-6), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This is an unusually weak Wednesday for college hoops. Why not spotlight the one game that’s actually really meaningful? Chatt and Samford are tied at the top of the SoCon along with UNCG, which is highly meaningful when the 1 seed has won eight of the last 12 tournaments.
Samford’s hyper-speed havoc system wants to generate a ton of points off turnovers and second chances, and they’re 6-2 against Chattanooga since 2021. However, despite losing the first edition of this series 73-69 three weeks back, Chattanooga did two highly encouraging things: they held Samford to their season low in points off turnovers (6) and second-chance points (also 6). Samford won thanks to Chatt shooting 5-26 on threes. If it continues that UTC matches up well with this particular edition of Samford, we could get quite the fun upset on a light Wednesday.
B GAMES
#16 St. John’s (-3) at #51 Villanova, 6 PM ET, FS1. This St. John’s team is truly unique in that I think their offense is horrifying to watch, but because they rebound so well and are so ridiculously tight on defense, it does not matter. They’re making the second weekend of the Tournament. Here, though, I do think Villanova may have the right gameplan in mind…if they’re able to execute. ‘Nova held the Johnnies to a season low in paint points (22) the first time around, and it took a free throw explosion (39 attempts!) along with the usual OREBs for SJU to generate 80 points. IF, and it’s a big if, Villanova can foul less and protect the boards better…
#19 Ole Miss (-5) at #78 South Carolina, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Ole Miss is a team I thought would have a horrid defense this year based on personnel. Instead, they play like, of all teams, late 2000s Purdue: exceptional interior defense, a wide turnover margin, and frequent offensive droughts where nobody can make a shot. I’m holding steadfast to my take that South Carolina WILL win a conference game this year. It likely will not be this one, but South Carolina’s been able to hold opponents to 12 or fewer points off turnovers 11 times this year (8-3 in such games).
NCAAW: #37 Indiana at #19 Michigan (-7), 7 PM ET, BTN+. This post is already long enough. Michigan is exceptionally confusing on a game-by-game basis, but I guess for the Wolverines it’s all about threes: 12-1 when they hit 36% or more, 5-6 when they don’t.
#36 Oklahoma at #24 Missouri (-7), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Two teams heading in polar opposite directions. This is another #SpotWatch: Mizzou coming off of two tough close losses in games they believe they should’ve won; Oklahoma coming off two demolitions by far superior opponents. Generally this results in the Mizzou of the equation winning by 18 and getting a huge metrics boost, but we’ll see.
NCAAW: #48 Colorado at #31 Utah (-8.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Best of an off night for Big 12 WBB. Utah is safely in the field but Colorado could lock themselves in with a road win, and they match up pretty well with Utah. Colorado’s very reliant on paint points, going 15-2 when they score 30+ (1-5 when not). Utah allows 28.7 per game in conference play, which is around the national average.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #142 Holy Cross at #158 Colgate (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Patriot League title battle.
#135 Purdue Fort Wayne (-2) at #215 Youngstown State, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Horizon League title battle. Since December 1, PFW has a +7.4 turnover margin per 100 possessions.
#180 Robert Morris at #150 Cleveland State (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Horizon League title battle part two. Cleveland State has been the best team in the league by some margin.
NCAAW: #61 Marquette at #63 Seton Hall (-2.5), 7 PM ET, Flo Hoops. They’re two of the three best non-UConn teams in the Big East.
#28 Louisville (-7) at #103 NC State, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Whenever you see games like this on here, they’re exclusively on it in case the favored team slips up.
#33 VCU (-7) at #111 George Washington, 7 PM ET, Peacock. Read the above.
NCAAW: #49 Arizona at #28 Oklahoma State, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Arizona really needs to win a game like this to get into the Tournament.
NCAAW: #56 South Dakota State (-5) at #117 North Dakota State, 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. Two best(ish) teams in the Summit. SoDak clears the field by a good distance for me; while they’re not quite as amazing as they have been in years past they’re still a real March threat.
#54 Xavier (-1) at #83 Providence, 8 PM ET, Peacock. Xavier jumps to 17.6% to make the field with a win, per Torvik, which isn’t nothing.
#61 Drake (-3) at #137 Illinois State, 9 PM ET, ESPN+ (I think). Drake jumps to 33.2% to make it with a win as an at-large, which is frankly a huge deal. The MVC has a real shot to be a two-bid league, which matters a lot if you’re a nostalgia freak like me.
NCAAW: #44 Washington at #34 Oregon (-6), 9 PM ET, BTN+. I enjoy when teams are easy to figure out. Oregon’s 10-1 when they make 50% or more of their twos and 6-7 when they don’t.
#62 Arizona State at #9 Texas Tech (-14), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. 12-11, 3-9 Big 12 after their usual fake-good start where they beat New Mexico and Saint Mary’s and tricked some of you into taking them seriously. There’s never going to be a time in my life where I understand the stranglehold Bobby Hurley has on certain media members.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 13
This is our Valentine’s Day in the Warren household, so analysis will be limited because I might see about 30 minutes of one of these games. Priorities, people!
THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #4 UCLA at #6 USC (-0.5), 10 PM ET, Peacock. I might break my rule of not staying up late for this one. Look, I’m 31 and I have gray hairs multiplying by the day. I live in the worst time zone in America. You think I can hang? I absolutely can NOT hang anymore, and I don’t even have kids yet. I’m pre-washed.
No one has beaten UCLA yet, and if they’re going to, it’s going to take a great all-around team effort. For USC, I’m looking at two things: can you take care of the ball, and can you win the paint battle? The two times USC has lost this year, they’ve given up 17 or more points on turnovers and 28 or more points in the paint. UCLA thrives on both these things; you cannot let them get the easy ones.
While UCLA hasn’t lost a game, the four times they’ve been held below 70 have had commonalities: low fastbreak points (8 or less in three of four), issues with ball control (TO% of 21% or higher in all four), and not being as dominant down low (held below their season average of 43 PITP in all four). Two elite defenses, two good-but-inconsistent offenses…I’m for it.
A GAME
NCAAW: #3 Texas (-7) at #14 Kentucky, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This is sort of an undercard but it really shouldn’t be. Kentucky figures to have a huge math advantage from a 3 > 2 perspective, but as is the case with pretty much every Texas game, the Longhorns are going to dominate on the boards and the foul department. It’s up to UK, particularly the wonderful Georgia Amoore, to hit a bunch of threes.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #39 Louisville at #27 Florida State (-7), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Another game that’s not really for much - maybe the difference in one team being a 7 seed or an 8 in March - but Ta’Niya Latson just continues plugging along, scoring points on points. She’s posted 20+ in seven straight games and is averaging 26 per game on the year.
NCAAW: #40 Nebraska at #20 Maryland (-9.5), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Same game, sorta, but Maryland needs a W to continue hanging onto the 3 line or so in brackets. As usual, this will just be “did Nebraska make enough threes.”
NCAAW: #82 Drake at #67 Murray State (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. They’re both fighting for third in the MVC, but let this be a lesson to watch more mid-major hoops. Both of these teams would win a lot of leagues out there, yet they’re at best third-best in the MVC, which has risen immensely as a WBB league as of late. Much respect to the other Arch Madness.
NCAAW: #29 Minnesota at #13 Ohio State (-7.5), 7:30 PM ET, Peacock. I’d like to be more interested in Minnesota but I just can’t get there, not when you’re 0-6 against top 50 teams and 19-0 against all others. Every Minnesota loss has the same story: they get pounced on in the first quarter, make a too-little-too-late comeback in the fourth, and lose because they give up about 20 open threes a game.
#18 Maryland (-1) at #39 Nebraska, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. Maryland seems to be floating under the surface as a team everyone generically respects but perhaps doesn’t take seriously. I think you should! Their resume says 8 seed, but the actual quality of play says 4/5, and it probably says something that nine of their top 10 statistical comps at Torvik were 3 seeds or better.
NCAAW: #38 Mississippi State at #26 Vanderbilt (-6.5), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. So: Mississippi State. We take for granted that these ladies will be serious players every year, but right now, they’re 17-8, 4-7 SEC, and have the resume of a 10 seed. You can’t keep losing games and feel like you’re fully deserving of a March bid.
#66 San Francisco at #13 Gonzaga, 11 PM ET, ESPN.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #52 Auburn at #17 Tennessee (-15), 6:30 PM ET, SECN+. Tennessee finally got their big win last week against UConn. Their reward: after playing the toughest league schedule of anyone, per Torvik, their remaining six games sit as the fourth-softest slate.
NCAAW: #46 Virginia Tech at #10 North Carolina (-13.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. To make the Tournament, or at least be on the good side heading into conference tournament season, Virginia Tech needs to win three of their final five. This is the least-likely of the five.
NCAAW: #21 Georgia Tech (-9.5) at #65 Clemson, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Sort of on here just because it might be close.
#160 Charleston at #113 UNC Wilmington (-6), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. This is for the CAA lead. Charleston sits as the third-luckiest team at KenPom, FWIW.
NCAAW: #59 Saint Joseph’s at #32 Richmond (-10.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. The best path to a three-bid A10 is this: Richmond goes 5-1 the rest of the way, splitting with Saint Joe’s. George Mason wins out, beating Saint Joe’s on the road. Then, in the A10 Tournament, Saint Joe’s (3 seed) wins the Tournament over Richmond (1 seed). Richmond is a 9 seed or so, George Mason a 10 or 11, and Saint Joe’s a 12. Boom.
NCAAW: #163 Tarleton State at #80 Grand Canyon (-13.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. WAC title race. Tarleton is actually third in the standings but has been quite competitive. Credit to Grand Canyon, who only has double the basketball budget of anyone else in WAC WBB versus having 4-5x everyone’s budget in MBB.
#206 Omaha at #104 South Dakota State (-9), 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. Omaha is the toast of college basketball right now, sitting 10-1 in Summit play. This is them playing the actual best team in the league, so we’ll see how it goes.
#74 Liberty (-4) at #168 New Mexico State, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Not really for anything, but color me very intrigued that four of Liberty’s top seven comps at Torvik are 2018 Loyola Chicago (Final Four), 2016 Northern Iowa (Round of 32), 2015 Dayton (Round of 32), and 2011 Richmond (Sweet Sixteen).
#148 UC Santa Barbara at #70 UC Irvine (-9), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. UCI and UCSD officially split the season series, so every single game matters immensely from here. Check out UCI’s list of comps, by the way. Scary.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14
A GAMES
D3: #3 NYU (-0.5) at #6 Emory, 5:30 PM ET, streaming. I have a post on the lower divisions coming either this week or next, time depending, but you gotta pay attention to this year’s D3 NCAA Tournament. Normally, a team really distances itself from the field, a la Randolph-Macon in 2022, but this year, any of the top seven teams could and should feel they can win the title. Two of them are playing in this game and have a combined record of 36-4.
D2: #12 Minot State at #18 Minnesota State (-2.5), 6:30 PM ET, streaming. I think this is more of a game between two teams that could make the D2 Elite Eight (their Final Four) than actually win it all, but Minnesota State did win it all just last year. I’ve mentioned him before but you really gotta see this Caleb Van De Griend guy for Minot State: 19.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 72% 2PT, 56% 3PT. All at 6’8”, 250. He’s a beast.
B GAME
#25 UCLA (-2) at #55 Indiana, 8 PM ET, FOX. Weeks back, I shared this image on a couple different medias and had labeled Indiana The Protagonist of History for the coming eight games. Boy, was that 100% accurate!
Amazingly, this goes even deeper than the above image, which has seen Indiana go 1-6 (likely 1-7) with another potential loss incoming. I do hope for Mike Woodson that, eventually, he gets one. Eventually.
C GAMES
#114 Saint Louis at #141 Loyola Chicago (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Very, very slim pickings if this is the second-best D1 game.
#197 Quinnipiac (-2) at #270 Sacred Heart, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Sam Federman, let me know if you’re reading this. I have officially Respected the MAAC.
Uncle Alvarez so on point and a great song!!