Week 14 Weekend Watchlist
An explosive *and* implosive weekend lurks ahead
Honest to God, completely forgot to put rankings next to 95% of these games or the projected spread. My bad. - WW
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
What lies ahead is 3,500+ words on this weekend’s games, so enjoy. I’ve tried to keep these shorter but it’s difficult. We’ll get back to essay writing soon enough, but first, share this with others if you think they’d enjoy it. This newsletter is frighteningly close to 2,000 subscribers, which is a number I never imagined was possible.
On with the show.
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 10
EARLY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ZERO AND FIVE STARS
15-mile run. I am testing out a new greenway for this one, we’ll see how it goes.
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
Creighton at Xavier, 12:30 PM ET, FOX. I toyed for a while with not putting a five-star game here, because honestly I’m not sure this deserves it, but this does have pretty huge March implications and features a pair of truly desperate teams that need a win badly. A win here genuinely puts Xavier in bubble talks, at 14-10 (8-5 BE) with seven Quad 1/2 wins and a Wins Above Bubble that’s above water for the first time since November. Creighton has begun to sway a bit and has lost three of six, with a defense that seems to be wobbling at the wrong time. Can this be their get-right game?
FOUR STARS
Alabama at LSU, 12 PM ET, ESPN. The reports of Alabama’s defense being fully fixed were, of course, greatly exaggerated. Turns out fouling your rear off and bleeding open threes is not a sustainable strategy! The good news for them is that this is an Alabama team who takes and makes tons of threes versus an LSU team that allows more deep balls than nearly anyone. Real potential for this to be a blowout in Alabama’s favor; also real potential for this to turn into an 0-2 week for the Tide.
THREE STARS
Clemson at Syracuse, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. For whatever reason, at the new burger place in town I went to last Saturday after a run, they had Miami/Virginia Tech on half of their TVs. On the other half was horse racing on “FanDuel TV”. I have no opinion on the former because I think that was on main ESPN, but the latter is a crime against humanity, surely.
Toledo at Appalachian State, 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Bizarre game, but this is part of the MAC/Sun Belt Challenge. I’m happy it exists, because both teams are very entertaining.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
Illinois at Michigan State, 2 PM ET, CBS. Fun for the whole family! As rough as Michigan State’s full season has been, they’ve been very tough to deal with at home. They’re 12-2 there and 2-7 away from home, holding opponents to a 40.5% hit rate on twos (7th-best). Illinois has been fantastic offensively on the road but has greatly struggled to string together stops, which is a real surprise for a Brad Underwood team.
Auburn at Florida, 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Every year, we have a team or five that demolishes lesser opponents and looks amazing in home games but cannot keep quite the same energy away from home. Auburn fits the bill this year, a team that scores an opponent-adjusted 1.14 PPP in road games and 1.2 PPP at home. I’m not worried about that as much as I am this specific matchup. It’s a road game against a good Florida team mere days after a super-emotional blowout win over their biggest rival. It’s got LETDOWN in giant blinking red letters. Up to Auburn if they can avoid it.
FOUR STARS
TCU at Iowa State, 2 PM ET, ESPN2. This was pretty close to being a third five-star game, but I held off. I really like both of these teams from a watchability perspective, though. This is a terrific matchup between one of the best transition-stopping defenses in America versus the preeminent transition offense. Only six teams have touched 10+ fastbreak points on ISU all year, which represents three of ISU’s five losses. TCU’s AVERAGE is 21 a game.
Cornell at Yale, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is for first place in the Ivy and therefore is worth your time. The key to Yale’s wins this year has been less about scoring and more about board dominance. Yale is 9-0 when posting a 32% OREB% or better; they’re 6-6 otherwise. That could be giant against a Cornell team that ranks in the 200s in both OREB% and DREB%.
NCAAW: #26 West Virginia at #20 Baylor, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Garden-variety good Big 12 women’s game here between two good basketball teams. I can’t recommend West Virginia enough if you’re a neutral; no team in America forces a higher defensive TO% (29.3%) and they’ve ended one (1) game all season where the opponent has committed fewer than 20 turnovers.
THREE STARS
Providence at Butler, 2 PM ET, FS1. Hugely pivotal bubble battle here. Butler sits at 58% to make the field, per Torvik, while Providence is at 32%.
Indiana State at Missouri State, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. We probably should talk about Indiana State less as a “you don’t want them as your 11 seed” and more as “oh my GOD you do not want them as your 8/9”. If that seems too aggressive, why? They’re #22 in NET, 17th in Strength of Record, and no lower than 37th in any metric used by the committee. Of the ten most similar resumes on Torvik, seven ended up a 9 seed or higher. Put Indiana’s name next to their exact resume instead of Indiana State and they’re likely an 8 seed in every bracket existing.
Boston College at Duke, 2 PM ET, ESPN. I can’t tell if people are on, off, or somewhere in the vicinity of the Duke bandwagon at the moment. I lean towards being on it myself. Against top-100 teams they’re #10 in adjusted efficiency, per Torvik. Winning the ACC likely won’t happen but it’s not a 4/5 seed I’d want to play.
Drexel at Charleston, 3:30 PM ET, Flo Hoops. This is for at least a share of the CAA lead and comes at a critical time with Drexel having dropped two in a row. I’d be remiss to not share Charleston’s uniforms for this game, which look pretty cool.
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
Gonzaga at Kentucky, 4 PM ET, CBS. This is going to be a lot of fun. I think people have largely forgotten about Gonzaga because they’re not whooping the WCC like usual and don’t have a great resume, but quietly, these guys have shot 62% on twos over their last ten games and have played like a top-20 team. We know the issues with Kentucky, but there’s no issue with their offense, which is a top-5 unit. The goals for each: Gonzaga needs to make 10 threes, as Kentucky is 2-7 when the opponent makes that many or more. For Kentucky, it’s two-point efficiency. Gonzaga is 3-5 when the opponent converts at a 50% or higher rate.
FOUR STARS
North Carolina at Miami, 4 PM ET, ESPN. Miami feels pretty dead in the water to me barring a hot run to the finish, but flowers must be given to Norchad Omier, who has played his tail off to keep Miami’s season alive. In conference play, he’s posted 17.3 PPG/10.3 RPG with a 66% eFG%. When he’s in the game, Miami is almost 12 points better per 100 possessions, per Hoop-Explorer. He needs to play a minimum of 32 minutes to keep Miami in this one.
Houston at Cincinnati, 4 PM ET, ESPN2. I’m still a long-term believer in Houston, but it’s probably time we talk about their offense away from home. The Cougars are shooting a horrific 44% on twos (#322 nationally) in away/neutral games and sitting on a -16.6 free throw attempt margin per 100 possessions. That’s an awful formula for success, and it’s gotta change in the next few weeks if they want to see April.
NCAAW: #5 Texas at #59 TCU, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. The Longhorns’ rebounding dominance is pretty unreal, rebounding an impressive 44% of their missed shots. No opponent has managed to stay within 12 points of Texas in games where the Longhorns have posted a 40% OREB% or better. TCU’s gotta hold strong on the boards to stay in this one.
THREE STARS
UCF at Texas Tech, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Speaking of awful road offenses, here’s UCF, who sits at 44% on twos and 28% on threes across seven non-home games. Texas Tech really hasn’t played all that well at home this year, but their offense is simply far more stable. UCF needs a 55-52 style game.
NC State at Wake Forest, 4 PM ET, ACC Network. Kind of sort of a bubble game. Wake sits at 70% to make the field and is climbing rapidly; NCSU is barely hanging onto the bubble and has zero Quad 1 wins. This and a road game at Clemson next Saturday represent their final chances to make a statement before the clock runs out.
Chattanooga at UNC Greensboro, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Samford sits alone in first place at 10-1, but these two are tied at 8-3 for second in the SoCon. These are the second and third-best offenses in the conference, but with opposite strengths. UTC is shooting 61% on twos in SoCon play, while UNCG is at 41% on threes.
Eastern Kentucky at Stetson, 4:45 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at #2 in the Atlantic Sun here.
Washington State at Oregon, 5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Were you aware before I listed it here that these two teams are tied for second in the Pac-12? Kind of wild to ponder. I wish this was on national TV, as it’s two top-30 offenses over their last 10 games. A serious shoutout must be given to WSU’s Jaylen Wells, a D2 up-transfer who’s posted 13.9 PPG on 49% 2PT/45% 3PT shooting splits in Pac-12 play.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi at McNeese State, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. #2 at #1 in the Southland. With a win here, Corpus Christi would move into a temporary three-way tie for first. If McNeese wins, it probably shuts down the conference race for good.
6-8 PM ET
FIVE STARS
Baylor at Kansas, 6 PM ET, ESPN. I have been a major hater of this Kansas team this year and find it extremely annoying that they pick about 5-7 games out of a 35-game schedule to show up for. Still, they’re obviously very good. This game should be an obvious show-up. It’s also going to be an offensive masterpiece. Kansas has quietly played like the third-best offense in the nation in conference play, which isn’t ideal for a Baylor defense that barely stops anyone. Then again, this is a Kansas defense with real cracks that Baylor’s roster of sharpshooters and foul-drawers can exploit. Exciting!
FOUR STARS
St. John’s at Marquette, 6 PM ET, FS1. This is quietly a really big game in the context of the Big East conference race. UConn has the title locked up, but the four other double-bye spots for the conference tournament are up for grabs. Marquette sits pretty at 8-3, but St. John’s is in a three-way tie for sixth at 6-6. If they want to avoid a meaningless game against Georgetown or DePaul, you need to win games like this one.
Drake at Bradley, 6 PM ET, ESPNU. Baller game and one that is personally a five-star affair but objectively a four-star game. This is big for a lot of reasons: the MVC race (Drake has a one-game lead on Bradley for second), two top-40 teams over the last six weeks, and a game that features no fewer than six of the ten best players in this conference.
Akron at James Madison, 6 PM ET, ESPN2. Serious BracketBusters vibes here for the MAC/Sun Belt challenge. I love this, because this is the best MAC team going on the road to play the second-best Sun Belt team, both of whom would be very frisky 12 or 13 seeds come March.
THREE STARS
Alabama State at Grambling State, 6:30 PM ET, HBCU+. This is for first place in the SWAC if Southern drops a home game. Plus, Alabama State’s defense is nasty to play against. Recommend giving them a few minutes.
NCAAW: #40 Oklahoma at #31 Iowa State, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Do you like great passing teams? Here’s your chance: a 100th-percentile assists team in Oklahoma (71% of all baskets are assisted) at a 97th-percentile team (68%) in Iowa State.
Virginia at Florida State, 7:45 PM ET, The CW. This is a basketball game that is being played.
8-10 PM ET
FIVE STARS
These waters I started getting from the Walmart. I think Walmart is a horrendous store, but worst person you know, etc. These are so, so good.
FOUR STARS
Tennessee at Texas A&M, 8 PM ET, ESPN. A full preview of this game is up tomorrow, but an interesting fact about 2023-24 Tennessee that seems underexplored: in true road games, Tennessee is second in offensive efficiency. IN THE NATION. Tennessee. Like, Rick Barnes Tennessee. It’s just six games, but that’s wild, especially when most of it has come from record-high two-point efficiency (60.3%) and not much in the way of threes. Even the higher sample size that introduces neutral-site games would still place Tennessee 13th. On the flip side, A&M is shooting 47% on twos and 26% on threes at home.
THREE STARS
Louisiana Tech at Liberty, 8 PM ET, ESPNU. I try to not get too surprised by various events each year, but Liberty’s struggles in Conference USA have come as something genuinely new to me. At 4-5 CUSA they’re going to be entirely reliant on winning the conference tournament to reach a postseason tournament of any repute, which will be relatively untouched territory for them as of late. I still think they’re winning this, though.
Indiana at Purdue, 8 PM ET, FOX. The astounding thing about this Indiana season is that they’re 14-9 and really fortunate to be 14-9. Their point differential on the season would offer a record more like 12-11, which is a stunning feat for this particular IU team. Anyway, if this is within 20 it’ll be a pleasant surprise.
UNLV at New Mexico, 8 PM ET, CBSSN. Another fun Mountain West game, this one at the home of the team who’s arguably played better than any other Mountain West team has over the last couple of months. Worse for UNLV is that UNM has been almost untouchable at home…though they won’t hold road opponents to 25.6% from three forever.
LATE
FIVE STARS
Arizona at Colorado, 10 PM ET, ESPN. All-timer of a Bad Situational Spot here. Arizona just got done beating Utah on the road in triple overtime, which was a great win. When this game starts, they’ll have received all of 46 hours of rest while playing their second game in a row at high elevation. Under Tad Boyle, when Colorado is at home and the opponent has fewer than three days of rest, the Buffaloes are 35-6 and 23-13-1 ATS.
FOUR STARS
Boise State at Utah State, 10 PM ET, FS1. Another brutal place to play when you’re on a back-to-back road slate: Utah State. Boise lost the home game half of this in January, so we’ll see if they can steal one back here.
Kansas State at BYU, 10 PM ET, ESPN2. The BYU Threes Theory continues to hold, as they moved to 1-5 on the year when shooting worse than 35% from deep. The good news for BYU is that they rarely have two bad games in a row from deep. After the six games where they’ve shot <35%, they’ve rebounded to average 36% from downtown in their next game.
THREE STARS
Santa Clara at San Francisco, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Decent battle for third in the WCC here. If nothing else, the WCC Player of the Year should be Jonathan Mogbo of USF. He’s been a stunner this year, going for 17.9 PPG and 11.5 RPG in conference play. No other player in America is averaging 15+ PPG, a 10%+ OREB%, and a 25%+ Assist%.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 11
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: Iowa at Nebraska, 1 PM ET, FOX. Every Iowa game is must-watch at this point, as Caitlin Clark is just 39 points away from the Division I scoring record for women’s basketball. But Iowa is more than just Clark, as evidenced by an astounding 47-point performance by Hannah Stuelke and a 16 & 16 outing by Molly Davis on Thursday night. The only way Nebraska can pull off a stunning upset is by avoiding turnovers; Iowa’s perfect this year when forcing turnovers on 15% or more of opponent possessions.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: Notre Dame at Florida State, 12 PM ET, ACC Network. I talk a ton about how terrific Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo is, but Florida State’s Ta’Niya Latson deserves some pub, too. 20.2 PPG, 4.3 APG, 4.1 RPG is star material.
NCAAW: Louisville at Syracuse, 12 PM ET, The CW. Huge game in the ACC title race here, as this is 9-2 ACC at 9-3 ACC. Also a fun clash here with the #1 foul-drawing team in the ACC (Louisville) traveling to play the #2 foul-avoidance team in Syracuse.
THREE STARS
Seton Hall at Villanova, 12 PM ET, CBSSN. Another bubble battle. Both teams sit at 27% to make the field as of today, so this feels kind of like an elimination game. Especially for Villanova.
Florida Atlantic at Wichita State, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. Can we have the Florida Atlantic talk yet? These guys are down to 51st on Torvik with a horrid defense that’s now outside the top 100. They’re still inside the top-30 on KenPom, but this is easily the best roster in a crap AAC and they may not even win the regular season title, let alone the conference tournament.
2-4 PM ET
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #3 UConn at #1 South Carolina, 2 PM ET, ESPN. Real Hoop. If you need a sell for this game, that’s on you.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #25 Oregon State at #15 Colorado, 2 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. This Colorado team has flown under the radar somewhat despite being in the AP Top 5. My guess is it’s because their leading scorer, Aaronette Vonleh, wouldn’t rank among the top 10 Pac-12 scorers. Or perhaps because they don’t really demolish opponents, rather consistently winning games by, like, 10-15. 19-3 is 19-3, but the dominance hasn’t been there. This is a great chance to break it out.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #30 North Carolina at #16 Duke, 2 PM ET, ACC Network. While the men’s rivalry is the obvious headliner, this is becoming a great battle in its own right. Player to watch, as always, is UNC’s Deja Kelly. She draws 6.8 fouls per game, which is pretty nuts.
North Texas at SMU, 2 PM ET, ESPNU. These aren’t the top teams in the AAC standings, but you could argue they’ve been the two most consistently good teams in the conference across the last couple months. SMU’s defense in particular is just a disgusting unit to deal with.
THREE STARS
Minnesota at Iowa, 3 PM ET, BTN. Again, time to give serious credit to Ben Johnson at Minnesota. This team and program were left for dead in the preseason. All he’s done is go an astonishing 19-3 ATS, pick off Michigan State at home, and sit above .500 in Big Ten play midway through the season. I assume Matt Painter will win B1G Coach of the Year but Johnson should get plenty of votes.
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #2 Stanford at #23 Oregon State, 4 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
NCAAW: #14 Ohio State at #17 Michigan State, 4 PM ET, Peacock. I don’t love doubling up on five-star games but these are basically equal for me. The first is a terrific battle between two elite frontcourts; the latter is a terrific battle between two elite backcourts. Which one you enjoy more probably depends on if you prefer your basketball to be played in the paint or on the perimeter.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #27 Alabama at #7 LSU, 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Last basketball game I’m writing about in this watchlist, so let’s go out on a nasty note: give Alabama their respect. They’re 19-6 and they’re going to make the NCAA Tournament. That is a huge deal for this program. If they get to 23 wins, which seems likely, it will be their most wins since 1997-98…when they won 24 games. It’s the best Alabama team in ages, and it’s a great story.
THREE STARS
Codenames. It’s a fine enough game to play with friends. I neither love nor hate it.
SUPER BOWL
49ers 24, Chiefs 19. To be honest, this gives me the same vibes as if Alabama/Texas had been the college football title game. Okay, sure, if you can get past how boring it is to have this same thing again then it’s obviously a really good football game. But some of us are salty and can’t get past how boring it is. Sorry!