Week 14 Weekend Watchlist: Rough Trade
Two armageddons! TWO!
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
This is a perfect song from a terrific album. I have no further comments.
Please read what I’ve written earlier this week. One is on Texas A&M’s basketball-as-brute-force philosophies (paid):
The other is on the 2025 NCAA Tournament, which is tracking very strongly with the likes of 2008, 2009, and 2017…all very top-heavy tournaments:
Now, it’s watchlist time. Enjoy!
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 15
ONE OF THE TWO A+ GAMES OF THE WEEKEND OF THE YEAR
Yes, there’s two. You’ll see.
#1 Auburn (-1) at #6 Alabama, 4 PM ET, ESPN. It’s the game of the life, people. I cannot imagine not watching this game, though I am sure some people will be doing other things.
It’s gone very undernoticed minus a couple of smart guys who’ve picked up on it, but Auburn quietly hasn’t been the same team lately, and Johni Broome in particular hasn’t been the same since his injury. After returning, Broome’s gone from 61.2% 2PT% (16 games) to 44.2% 2PT% (last six), with a particularly shocking 50% hit rate (33-66) at the rim (5-20 on Other Twos). Remember: this is a guy who, pre-injury, was shooting 67.3% at the rim and 50% on non-rim twos.
Auburn’s also had to play a bit differently in general with the injury. For one, they’ve enjoyed significantly less time in transition, have leaned bizarrely heavily on post-ups (which they didn’t do as extremely before), and have mostly eliminated drive-and-kicks from their offense. Because they’re Auburn, they’re still really good, but they’ve been about ~5 points worse per 100 possessions since Broome’s return and have given up a 5.6% worse hit rate on twos. I don’t think he’s 100%.
Alabama, meanwhile, enters at functionally the closest they can be to full health (minus Latrell Wrightsell, of course). Since Oats took over in 2019, he’s won six of ten against the Tigers, but the main piece has been very consistently cracking the defensive code. Alabama’s scored under 77 against Auburn just once (a March 2021 win) while Auburn’s been held to 75 or lower four times. If this is the game where Alabama hits threes, and God knows they’re capable of it, it could be an Iron Bowl of Basketball coronation for the Tide.
A GAMES
#11 Wisconsin at #8 Purdue (-4), 1 PM ET, CBS. This is probably not a real rivalry, but it does feel like one. The key to a minor road upset for Wisconsin here is two-fold. First, can you play drop coverage that induces a lot of midrange twos? Purdue’s results in games where the opponent has forced them to take 20% or more of their shots as midrange jumpers have been kind of ugly: 2-2, with the two wins being squeakers over mediocre Indiana and Oregon teams.
Secondly: are you going to be the team that makes threes at Mackey? Purdue’s opponents this year have shot 27% in Mackey while the Boilers have enjoyed the spoils of shooting 39.2% from deep. It’s a very, very hard environment to play in, but this is a Wisconsin group that’s made 10+ threes in 14 of their 24 games. Plausible! Just not likely, given recent history.
#3 Houston (-3) at #14 Arizona, 2 PM ET, ESPN. God, this rules. Brutalist basketball. If you can’t get behind this, I am not sure what it is you want from the best sport in America.
The Houston equation is simple: you have to force turnovers, and you have to own the boards. The Coogs have posted 15+ points off turnovers and 15+ second-chance points in the same game seven times this year, with the only loss being a very understandable one to Auburn. That is all nice, but this comes down to how fast the game is played. Arizona is 11-0 when scoring 15+ fastbreak points…and 6-7 when they don’t. Houston last allowed 15 or more fastbreak points on December 1, 2023 against Xavier. If Arizona can be the first to do that in a long time, they win. If not…well, I think it’s Houston’s day.
#23 Michigan State at #15 Illinois (-4), 8 PM ET, FOX. Fun #SpotWatch here for Michigan State and Tom Izzo, who’ve lost three of four so their season must be in a downward spiral that cannot be recovered from because Tom Izzo is old. You might enjoy knowing a couple of things about this: for one, post-COVID MSU is 28-12-2 ATS after a loss. Izzo doesn’t take losing well, which I figure most people already know. The other item: State’s three losses have been by a total of 12 points to #56 (A), #25 (A), and #54 (H). I think they’re okay.
The problem with my theory here is that Illinois is due some serious 3PT% regression after running -4.7% in Big Ten play (+2% non-con) and has the best interior defense in the conference, along with a huge rebounding edge versus basically everyone.
B GAMES
#41 Arkansas at #13 Texas A&M (-8), 12 PM ET, ESPN. When I was putting together Friday’s article on the future NCAA Tournament I became nauseous for one reason: Arkansas made the First Four. It’s a good look-ahead to Selection Sunday, when one of the various SEC teams no one is happy about makes the field of 68. Since Boogie Fland went out, Arkansas has genuinely turned a corner despite worse shot-making. Why? Well, shockingly, deleting a freshman ball-handler has given Arkansas a far better turnover margin and play better defense. The real star here is Big Z, who is legitimately much better than Jonas Aidoo right now.
#47 West Virginia at #28 Baylor (-8), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. Couple of regression factors going WVU’s way: they’ve shot 28.1% from 3 over their last seven (versus 33.1% on the year), while Baylor has shot 38.4% from 3 (36% on the year). May not be enough given the presumed massive edge Baylor will have on the boards.
#19 Missouri (-1) at #39 Georgia, 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Missouri is the much better team as of late (4th-best nationally over last 7 games vs. #52 UGA), but they’ve enjoyed a large 3PT% gap (+7.9% versus +3.1% in all other games). I am more worried about how Georgia scores against a top-50 defense. They’re a perfect 14-0 against teams ranked outside of the top 50 defensively…and 2-9 versus top-50 units.
#31 Mississippi State at #20 Ole Miss (-6), 6 PM ET, ESPN2. More regression news: in their last seven games, State has ridden a brutal -9.6% 3PT% gap despite going +4.5% on twos. The first game between these two went to OT and State got outshot, but they were +22 (!) in pure rebound margin and +11 on offensive boards. Wouldn’t be shocked if that held against an Ole Miss team that’s 355th nationally in OREB% over their last 10 games and is probably the single worst rebounding team in the SEC. Shot volume versus shot efficiency game.
#70 Wake Forest at #38 SMU (-7), 6 PM ET, ACC Network. SMU has played like a top-30 team in America over their last 10, but has enjoyed the benefits of shooting 41% from three while opponents have shot 30%. The good news for them is that Wake has been awful against defenses with a pulse, averaging 60.9 PPG against top-75 defenses this year. SMU has very similar P&R coverage to Louisville, who held Wake to 0.89 PPP despite a late-game 21-7 run. My best guess is this being some sort of 69-63 style affair.
#18 Kentucky (-1) at #35 Texas. 8 PM ET, ESPN. Horrific spot for UK after defeating Tennessee at home thanks to another 3PT variance special: 50% from 3 to UT’s 17%. I imagine they wish they could play Tennessee every game. Something worth noting to me: Kentucky has shot 45% or higher from 3 six times prior to Tuesday this year. In the game immediately following, they’ve shot 35% from deep. Great buy-low on Texas here as well, whose opponents have shot 39% from three over the last five.
#134 Princeton at #63 Yale (-9), 8 PM ET, ESPNU. This is functionally an Ivy League title game to me, regardless of if Princeton is actually the league’s second-best team. It’s a tremendous spot for Yale, as they’re getting Princeton off the traditional Ivy back-to-back road game and both looked ahead of their opponents last night. The first meeting saw Yale (the best offense Princeton has played this year) shoot 58% on twos, but also go 9-16 on threes while Princeton went 14-42.
#108 Troy at #83 Arkansas State (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN2. This is Real Hoop. Sun Belt title game preview, if we’re lucky, between the two best teams in the league and the two most purely enjoyable teams to watch. Troy plays a very blitz-y perimeter coverage that forces a lot of midrange jumpers. There isn’t anything quite like it in the Sun Belt, but Arkansas State shredded it in the first matchup to the tune of 1.29 PPP. Troy hung in thanks to a Tayton Conerway 32-point outing, and the Arkansas State offense is very gettable most nights, but I do wonder (especially after Troy went 0-2 last year) if this is just a bad matchup for the Trojans.
#57 Kansas State at #34 BYU (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Well, I guess we should learn if Kansas State Is Real. Maybe they are, and this entire season has been one long con, but they’re getting out-rebounded, are enjoying the fruits of a +8.7% 3PT% heater, and are posting the same 2PT% numbers they have all year. Odds are that they just reverted to what they more or less were the entire time after experiencing brutal close-game luck to start the year. I still don’t think they deserve a Tournament spot at this time, but a road win over BYU would change things.
#44 Boise State at #50 San Diego State (-3), 10 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Right at the time I thought we were safe to forget about Boise, they’ve played like the best team in the Mountain West over the last five games. Of course, I wouldn’t be me without pointing out two huge five-game regression red flags: Boise +7% on threes, San Diego State -4.6%. Either way, this is a great matchup in a fun environment.
C GAMES
#27 Clemson (-5) at #78 Florida State, 12 PM ET, The CW. We’re in a position with the ACC where games like these are listed exclusively in the event of the favorite losing. I’m not watching this unless Clemson is down by 6 with four minutes left.
#133 UNC Greensboro at #158 Furman (-2), 12 PM ET, ESPN+. Furman is sixth in the SoCon but only two games back of third with a lot of season left to go. UNCG is tied for the conference lead.
NCAAW: #162 Southern Indiana at #180 Lindenwood (-0.5), 12 PM ET, ESPNU. The Lindenwood Lions: 13-2, tied for the OVC lead, with an 8-game winning streak. How about that! Because of the NCAA’s archaic, idiotic rules, they aren’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament, and neither is Southern Indiana, so this is functionally an exhibition game. Thanks!
#46 Vanderbilt at #5 Tennessee (-14), 1 PM ET, SEC Network. In the first matchup, Vanderbilt shot the stuffing out of the ball for 30 minutes then had to hold on for the final ten. Spot-wise this is a rough setup for VU after having to deal with Auburn on Tuesday, with Tennessee probably (rightfully) very angry that shooting variance didn’t go their way against Kentucky.
#96 High Point (-3) at #189 Winthrop, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at #3 in the Big South. If you’re in love with offense, the Big South is your league this year. Not a single top-200 defense to be found.
NCAAW: #133 Cleveland State at #104 Purdue Fort Wayne (-6.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. There are three good teams in the Horizon: CSU (third), Green Bay (second), and Fort Wayne (15-0 and first overall, winners of 17 straight). Fun game.
#181 Jacksonville at #117 North Alabama (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Both of these teams are tied with Lipscomb for the ASUN lead, but the entire ASUN race is wild. Check this out!
#259 Vermont at #197 Maine (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Vermont took the first one at home, making it 29 in a row over Maine. Maine can basically lock Vermont out of the AmEast top two with a win here.
#9 Texas Tech (-10) at #98 Oklahoma State, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. At previous stops, Steve Lutz was legitimately awesome as a dog of 5+ points: 10-5 ATS, 7-8 straight-up. At OK State, he’s 2-7 ATS and 0-9 overall. Just not enough juice, but hey, you never know.
NCAAW: #115 Western Kentucky at #48 Middle Tennessee (-12), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. MTSU is scary as a potential 12 seed. They’re #1 in the country (!) in 2PT% defense and hold a +5.3 turnover margin per 100. Even against top-100 competition both have held up fairly well. Their dream matchup is probably…Michigan State?
#88 Stanford at #2 Duke (-21), 4 PM ET, ABC. Stanford’s an interesting variety of mediocre, which separates them from the rest of the ACC’s 12-team class of mediocre.
#55 Cincinnati at #7 Iowa State (-12), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. On one hand, I have no interest whatsoever in seeing this Cincinnati roster play a TJ Otzelberger defense. On the other…Cincinnati has been really unlucky with 3PT% variance and still has a really good defense.
#169 Florida Gulf Coast at #87 Lipscomb (-8), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. More ASUN goodness. Interesting piece of the pie here: in the last three years, Lipscomb home games where they’re favored by 5+ points are 17-8 to the over on the point total.
NCAAW: #76 Drake at #47 Belmont (-8.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. The MVC is officially a three-team race for the REGSEAS title: Drake (10-3), Missouri State (11-2), and Belmont (11-2). Either of these would be a spicy 12 seed.
#52 Villanova (-1) at #86 Providence, 6 PM ET, CBSSN. This isn’t ‘for’ anything, other than Villanova would pretty well lock in >.500 in Big East play with a win. Rough season for Providence.
#219 UC Davis at #45 UC San Diego (-15), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Either you’re rooting for both UC San Diego and UC Irvine (each 21-4, 11-2 Big West) to go undefeated the rest of the way, or you’re a hater and loser. Don’t be. Also, since when are teams allowed to play 32 games in the regular season?
#206 Omaha at #119 St. Thomas (-8), 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. In the pre-eminent Offense Conference, not only is this #1 at #2 in the title race, it’s the #2 offense playing the #1 offense. I wish I lived in Minnesota.
#10 Kansas (-7) at #84 Utah, 10 PM ET, ESPN. Kansas and Hunter Dickinson are addicted to having violent, explosive diarrhea on national television, which is why this is on here. FWIW Utah’s packed-in defensive style is quite similar to others (Creighton) that have given (West Virginia) the Jayhawks serious offensive problems.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 16
THE SECOND A+ GAME OF THE WEEKEND OF THE YEAR
NCAAW: #1 UConn at #2 South Carolina (-2.5), 1 PM ET, ABC. This is over 4,000+ words long. I am tired, I have to get ready for a family event in exactly 15 minutes, and I figure that #1 at #2 explains itself.
If not, please read this from Her Hoop Stats, the leading site in women’s basketball. Their preview is excellent.
THE DAYTONA 500
Daytona 500, 1:30 PM ET, FOX. Imagine if college football started its season with the Rose Bowl. That’s how important this event is, both to the sport and to me, personally. People are always kind of stunned when I tell them I am a legitimately huge NASCAR fan and watch most races. Sorry! It rules. My pick here is Brad Keselowski. It’s time.
A GAMES
NCAAW: #10 Ole Miss at #15 Tennessee (-1), 12 PM ET, SEC Network. The hits keep coming schedule-wise in the SEC, but this is perhaps the most fascinating possible matchup for Tennessee’s pace-and-space game. Ole Miss is an underrated group that plays a style of defense meant to force as many midrange twos as possible, take away all transition opportunities, and play a game in the 60s. Tennessee is…not that. Styles make fights, and I bet this will be a great one.
NCAAW: #13 LSU at #3 Texas (-14.5), 3 PM ET, ABC. This is essentially Diet Texas at Texas, or perhaps LSU at Better LSU. Neither team takes many threes, and each has one or two designated shooters that are allowed to take them. It’s very old-school basketball, which is presumably what you’d expect in a game where Kim Mulkey and Vic Schaefer are the two coaches.
So it’ll come down to the interior battle between #1 in OREB% (LSU) and #2 (Texas). If those two things cancel each other out, it’s then about which interior defense can hold up better. As fabulous as Texas is on the boards, they have been vulnerable to giving up points in the paint, and ten times this year (two losses) they’ve given up 32 or more. LSU has fewer games but has given up more paint explosions: 46 to Oklahoma, 42 to Stanford, 42 to Tennessee. None of those are teams with real demons down low, frankly. Whichever rim protector blinks first loses.
#51 Utah State at #37 New Mexico (-6), 4 PM ET, CBSSN. I mean, it’s just a lot of fun. What more can you say? These are the two most purely watchable teams in the eternally watchable Mountain West. Utah State’s very blitzy ball-screen coverage could cause some issues for a UNM side that’s prone to live-ball turnovers, but if they can’t force said turnovers, USU is really vulnerable to teams that can attack the paint and spread them out. UNM’s not really capable of the latter but can certainly do the former. I’ll catch the second half after Daytona.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #45 Harvard at #43 Columbia, 12 PM ET, ESPNU. The Ivy has three fantastic teams in Columbia, Princeton, and Harvard, and I hope they all somehow make the eventual Tournament. For that to happen, Harvard needs to win this game, which is easier said than done after losing the home edition 80-71 thanks to Columbia shooting 58% on twos.
#22 Michigan at #29 Ohio State (-2), 1 PM ET, CBS. By Thrill Score, this is technically the best game of the day, and I’m sure it’ll be very points-heavy. But I also think it’s time to look under the hood on Ohio State’s surge. Over the last eight games, they’re 5-3 and have played like a top-25 team. They’ve also out-shot opponents by 11% from three, have been outshot by 3% from two, have a negative turnover margin, and are giving up 43 free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts. I could certainly see this being a get-right game for Michigan’s offense.
NCAAW: #25 NC State at #12 North Carolina (-6.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN. This is the only battle between these two this season, unfortunately. I think it might be a bad matchup for NCSU. The Wolfpack look far better in transition than in half-court, which isn’t ideal against a UNC team that’s one of the best out there in denying transition opportunities. Also an NCSU team that needs points in P&R and ISOs with their guards, which is a poor matchup with a UNC side excellent in defending both.
#94 Bradley at #61 Drake (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. This is your likely Arch Madness title game in a month. Drake won the first game 64-57 on the road despite a 25% day from three because they forced 15 live-ball turnovers (17 total) from Bradley. Drake’s hyper-aggressive perimeter defense is really hard to handle for most teams, but it’s a potential fatal flaw for a Bradley team that’s 308th in offensive Steal% (aka, live-ball TOs). I don’t know if there’s a nightmare draw for Drake but of all teams it might be Illinois State, who’s nearly picked them off twice and has the lowest live-ball TO rate in the MVC.
#40 Nebraska at #58 Northwestern (-1), 3 PM ET, BTN. Please just watch Daytona instead. But if you must, Nebraska is teetering (particularly away from home) and sorely needs this win to aid a flagging resume. I think if you played the Tournament today they’d be in the First Four, but it’s no guarantee. No Ewing Theory at play for Northwestern post-Brooks Barnhizer, by the way; they have been utterly horrendous on defense since his departure.
#30 Creighton at #16 St. John’s (-6), 3 PM ET, FS1. This might actually be for the Big East title, huh? And what’s craziest about it is that St. John’s has won all these games but might be due for positive regression. They’ve shot 26.7% from three over their last 10, a truly horrendous number but one that’s 4% below their expected season-long rate. They really are 2011-12 and 2014-15 Louisville reincarnated.
NCAAW: #37 Oregon at #30 Minnesota (-4.5), 3 PM ET, BTN+. This and the following game are your garden-variety good Big Ten games. I don’t know that either really means much beyond ensuring the winner makes the NCAA Tournament, but they probably will regardless, and all involved will be 10 seeds or higher come March.
NCAAW: #40 Nebraska at #29 Illinois (-6), 5 PM ET, BTN. See above. I’m tired.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #17 Oklahoma (-11) at #64 Missouri, 2 PM ET, SEC Network. Despite being 2-9 SEC, Mizzou has some friskiness about them. All of Texas, Tennessee, and LSU got serious scares from the Tigers and the excellent Grace Slaughter. Could they finally bring home an upset here?
#275 Iona at #201 Quinnipiac (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. #4 at T-#1 in the MAAC race. It’s on.
#99 South Dakota State (-7) at #247 South Dakota, 2 PM ET, CBSSN. I love in-state rivalries, obviously, particularly when South Dakota’s defense is 343rd in America.
#196 Youngstown State at #159 Cleveland State (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPNU. The top of the Horizon League is a bit of a mess, with Cleveland State at 12-3 and four teams either 10-5 or 11-5. CSU can complete the Youngstown sweep with a win here.
#230 Marist at #188 Merrimack (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Two of the three teams quasi-tied for the conference lead in the MAAC. Also the two best defenses in the league, so lower your hopes for watchability, please.
NCAAW: #11 TCU (-9.5) at #52 Arizona, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. I’d like for this to be higher, but this is the #5 offense playing #98 in a sport where that gap is even wider than it sounds.
NCAAW: #28 Vanderbilt (-5) at #53 Auburn, 4 PM ET, SEC Network. Vandy has lost three straight, and while this doesn’t shake the fact they’ll be in the Tournament, it’s losing them seeding at a rapid pace. They need to stop the bleeding badly here. How have they lost three straight? Well, allowing opponents to shoot 54.7% from two and rebound 44.2% of their missed shots will get you every time.
#62 Iowa at #17 Maryland (-12), 5 PM ET, FS1. We’re now three games deep in this Iowa season without Owen Freeman. What’s changed? Honestly, not much. Iowa’s opponents have hit 40% from three but that’s not sustainable; adjusted for shooting luck, both sides of the ball are mostly the same, minus a serious tick downwards in offensive Free Throw Rate. Could be an Ewing Theory play here.
NCAAW: #6 USC (-14.5) at #44 Washington, 7 PM ET, BTN. How does USC react after pulling off what might be the win of the season over UCLA on Thursday? The traditional prediction is Washington 1Q lead → USC ~15 point win.
#25 Louisville (-6) at #90 Notre Dame, 8 PM ET, ACC Network. I have no idea why this is at 8 PM on a Sunday, but here you go. Road Fave Pat is 4-1 this year with the lone slip-up being the Georgia Tech game two weeks back. At Charleston and Winthrop: 50-8 as a road fave, 30-26-2 ATS.
NCAAW: #24 Michigan State at #4 UCLA (-15), 9 PM ET, BTN. How does UCLA react after their first loss of the season? I’m interested in a Buy Low on MSU here too; opponents have shot 34.6% from three over the last 10 after shooting 28.9% over the first 14.
ONE TO PLAY US OUT!