The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
You either get it or you don’t; the strings are the life. Such is the net, too.
There are a lot of games and not a lot of time to read about them. Let’s get it underway.
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 17
A GAMES
NCAAW: #8 Kansas State at #9 West Virginia (-1.5), 2 PM ET, FOX. Boy, I ran this one right to the deadline. Oops.
Kansas State still has yet to recover from the Ayoka Lee injury, though she herself suggests a return on Saturday against Kansas. That obviously means KSU’s down their best player here, which is critical when they’re one of three teams tied for the Big 12 lead at 12-2.
Without Lee, KSU predictably plays much differently on both ends of the court. KSU is much more reliant on star point guard Serena Sundell to self-create, they have far fewer points in the paint, and the Wildcats allow a lot more on the other end. Yet they still have a good shot in this game because the Lee injury has no affect on one key thing: KSU’s turnover rate on each end of the floor. It’s an absolute must for KSU to keep them low. When WVU hasn’t generated enough turnovers, simply put, they haven’t won games.
NCAAW: #7 Duke at #5 Notre Dame (-8), 6 PM ET, ESPN. The other mega-game of the day is this one. As is pretty standard with Duke, I never feel like a big fan of whatever they’re trying offensively, but their defense is its usual ruthless self. Notre Dame is perhaps the very best transition offense in women’s college basketball, which means it’s crucial for Duke to maintain the level of transition denial they’ve flashed throughout the year.
Beyond that, I think this matchup favors ND in one key area: P&R coverage. Notre Dame has Hannah Hidalgo, so naturally, they’re going to run a lot of ball screens for her. Duke’s P&R coverage this year has been just okay (53rd-percentile), but they’ve handled the guards well enough. It’s the roller they’ve been brutal at, sitting 24th-percentile in defensive efficiency. If Notre Dame rolls, it could be due to a huge game from Liatu King.
NCAAW: #19 Michigan at #20 Maryland (-2), 6 PM ET, BTN. Huge hat tip to women’s college hoops for scheduling a boatload of great games on what I’m being told is a holiday for some. I am some. This is Michigan’s first tangle with Maryland, which is going to be a serious test of Michigan’s just-okay rim protection. The Terps rank in the 96th-percentile nationally in attempts at the rim, which is troublesome for a Michigan squad that gives up a 57.7% hit rate there and has let opponents go >65% in four of the last six games.
#12 Arizona at #29 Baylor (-1), 10 PM ET, ESPN. Big Monday will never, ever die. I will not let it. Promise. Arizona and Baylor tangled way back on January 14, and while you can only draw so much from single-game sample sizes, it was fairly educational. For one, Baylor got tuned up in the paint to the tune of 42 points, their second-highest number allowed this year. Yet on the other hand, an Arizona team that doesn’t allow much in the way of transition offense gave up 20 fast-break points to Baylor, a season-high allowed. If Baylor’s able to play this game fast and turn their defense into a functional packline, the path is there…but simultaneously, Arizona’s just better.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #21 Iowa at #14 Ohio State (-5.5), 12 PM ET, FOX. Functional undercard to the other NCAAW bangers today. I’m really impressed with Iowa’s recovery of what looked to be a near-lost season; they’ve played like a 4 seed over their last 10 games despite opponents shooting 37.4% from deep. Ohio State, meanwhile…24th over their last 10 and getting out-rebounded by 12.2 per 100 possessions. Worrisome future.
#69 McNeese State (-7) at #190 Southeastern Louisiana, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. McNeese has two ‘real’ games left: this and a road game at Lamar on March 1st. The way to beat this particular flavor of McNeese is to protect the boards, as they’re 12-0 when they post an OREB% of 33% or better. SELA is the conference’s best defensive rebounding team…but the worst at fouling and rim protection. The other problem is a truly awful transition and press offense against McNeese of all teams.
C GAMES
#2 Duke (-15) at #103 Virginia, 8 PM ET, ESPN. Actually, yeah, it’s not unthinkable. Virginia’s interior defense is about the only good thing they have left, and Duke is 3-2 when they make fewer than 10 shots at the rim, per CBB Analytics. But…well…no.
#59 Kansas State at #78 Utah (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. The Kansas State thing was fun while it lasted. Utah could complete a Kansas sweep here.
#292 Texas Southern at #223 Southern (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Best of SWACtion. Horrendous matchup for TXSO: 85th-percentile offensive rebounding squad against a 3rd-percentile defensive rebounding group.
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
A GAMES
#10 Purdue at #16 Michigan State (-2), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Powerhouse night of Big Ten hoops. Michigan State remains just one game out of the Big Ten lead behind Michigan, while Purdue’s now 1.5 games back after a weekend loss to the Badgers. This is somehow the first top-50 shooting offense Michigan State has drawn since November 19, when they played Samford (38th).
Every Purdue game is the same thing: did they hit twos at an efficient rate? If it’s 57% or higher, they won (13-1). If it’s below 57%, they probably didn’t (6-6). State turns most games into a jump shooting contest, which means this could go very well or very poorly. The closest thing to this that Purdue has played is probably Maryland, and they had to sneak away with that one at home.
#20 Illinois at #9 Wisconsin (-5), 8 PM ET, FS1. Let’s fire up the old projection tool for these games: what is the most recent thing the Field of 68 YouTube channel said about each?
Therefore, it is Illinois’ turn to win this battle.
All joking aside, Illinois won the first battle between these two 86-80 in December despite their usual barf-fest from three (10-33) and losing the turnover battle. That’s because Illinois rebounded 46% (!) of their missed shots. Considering shot volume is a serious issue for Wisconsin - net TO%/OREB% in conference play of -0.2 per 100, while the Illini are +4.9 - they better continue shooting 39% from three to win this one.
B GAMES
#13 Texas A&M at #30 Mississippi State (-1), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. The entire Texas A&M equation is less about making shots and more about taking as many of them as possible in the first place. Shot volume does matter! A&M’s 14-1 when winning the combined REB/TO battle in a game by +10 or more. They’re still 6-4 when they don’t, but I don’t find it a coincidence whatsoever that the three games they’ve lost it were two blowouts and a narrow win over a bad Rutgers team. Mississippi State is almost the same team but even more extreme: 12-0 when they win the battle by +10, 6-7 when they don’t. Forget the actual shot. Watch what happens after.
#7 Texas Tech (-8) at #84 TCU, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Just in case. Also, TCU quietly won the OREB/TO battle by 9 in the first go-around but lost in part because JT Toppin went nuts.
#15 Kansas (-1) at #33 BYU, 9 PM ET, ESPN. For all the Dickinson debates, Kansas is a simple team to decode: if they can score in transition, they win. If they don’t, they’re gonna lose. They put up all of two (2) fastbreak points against Utah on Saturday night and are 2-7 when posting 8 or fewer (15-1 with 9+).
NCAAW: #30 Oklahoma State at #25 Utah (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Fun! But away-from-home Oklahoma State is pretty terrifying, and not in a positive way. They shoot 25.1% from three away from home and have scored under 65 in four of their nine non-home games.
C GAMES
#55 Villanova at #35 UConn (-6), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Either UConn starts playing better or HurleyMania might shoot me.
#165 Jacksonville at #172 Florida Gulf Coast (-2), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. T-#3 at T-#5 in the ASUN. Look, you get what you get.
#45 Oklahoma at #4 Florida (-15), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. You gotta hand it to this guy: he was right. They aren’t 38th anymore.
#86 Lipscomb (-4) at #182 Eastern Kentucky, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. T-#1 at T-#3 in the ASUN race. EKU has won seven straight and genuinely looks much better…because they’ve shot 45% from deep in those seven games. I’ll hold for now.
#3 Houston (-11) at #62 Arizona State, 9 PM ET, ESPN2.
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
#6 Alabama at #14 Missouri (-1), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Yes, I’m as sick of the SEC love as you are, but it’s well-earned; this really is the best conference in a very long time in men’s basketball. I guess we gotta deal with it.
We don’t have a ton of data on Nate Oats’ performances after a loss because Nate Oats doesn’t find himself losing a lot of basketball games, but post-COVID (‘21-22 to now), Alabama is a fine-but-not-special 16-15-1 ATS after losing their previous game. When it’s on the road against an SEC opponent, they’re 5-3, but only one game really feels that similar to this one: earlier this year at Kentucky as a 2-point favorite, which Alabama won 102-97.
You can read Saturday one of two ways: it was honestly pretty impressive that Alabama hung as close as they did despite a horrific shooting day from three. It’s also somewhat unprecedented for you to lose your in-season Super Bowl and then have to go on the road a few days later. Missouri’s performances against Bama-like drop schemes with similar talent haven’t been hits (1.04 PPP, 43% eFG% versus Illinois; 1.04 PPP, 49% eFG% versus Kansas), but situationally they could benefit from a dispirited Bama, albeit one with a 1 seed still to play for.
A GAME
#37 New Mexico at #49 Boise State (-3), 10 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. SIGNALING THE NEWSLETTER FAMILY BEACON: If you are an audio engineer or mixer, please email me at statsbywill@gmail.com. I have a project for you, and this project is on the mind because during the interminable Daytona rain delay yesterday, I watched most of Utah State/New Mexico on CBSSN. The sound quality on made baskets was significantly above that of any I’ve heard on an ESPN broadcast this year. Can you help me understand why?
As an actual game, these are the two best rebounding teams in the Mountain West and two of the three best defenses. Neither has been trustworthy or exactly sexy in their half-court offense, but Boise has been most victimized by teams that can spread them out and exploit their lack of plus athleticism. New Mexico isn’t that in theory, but they won the first battle last month 84-65 thanks to Boise’s turnover woes handing UNM 29 fastbreak points, the most a Boise team has given up in CBB Analytics’ 7-year database. We’ll see if they can reverse that.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #37 Oregon at #40 Nebraska (-1), 7 PM ET, BTN+. Not for anything, really, save for probably furthering Nebraska into the field with a win. They’re a really intriguing team that’s 17-9 but has kind of a weak resume, going 4-9 versus Quads 1 and 2. ESPN (which runs the Tournament, more or less) has them as a 10 seed at the moment. A win here can’t lock you into the field of 68, but a loss can make your position significantly less stable.
#42 Vanderbilt at #19 Kentucky (-9), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Talk about a huge leverage game for Vandy: a loss really doesn’t hurt (76% to make the field, per Torvik), but a win almost fully ensures their status as a future Tournament team (90%). This is a huge test of my Regression Theory: Kentucky is +10.5% from three in their last 10 (only 5-5); Vandy is -8.4%. I think both of these defenses are horrendous, so it should be fun to watch.
D2: #1 Nova Southeastern (-11) at #31 Florida Southern, 7:30 PM ET, streaming. This is the closest game Nova Southeastern is likely to play before the D2 Elite Eight in March, so if you have time, make time. Nova Southeastern averages 106.4 PPG, which sounds absurd until I tell you Florida Southern themselves average 93.6 PPG and are fifth in D-1. Massey’s O/U on this game is 193.5. There has not been a game with an O/U north of 190 since February 2018 in Division I. Tune in.
#128 South Alabama at #88 Arkansas State (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Arkansas State stumbled at home to Troy on Saturday and is now 10-4 in conference play, which is leading people to whimper and whine about the Sun Belt’s conference tournament setup. How about NO, losers. Win the games. Anyway, South Alabama won the first battle 76-62, though I’d argue shooting 24% from 3 to USA’s 50% isn’t repeatable.
NCAAW: #22 Baylor (-5.5) at #49 Colorado, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. The Buffs are now on the bubble periphery and could really use a win here, but it can’t and won’t happen unless they pack their defense all the way in and force Baylor to win beyond five feet from the rim. All five Baylor losses have come in games where they’ve attempted under 35% of their shots at the rim, per CBB Analytics. North of that mark, Baylor averages 81 PPG and is undefeated.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #1 UConn (-22) at #65 Seton Hall, 6 PM ET, SNY/FOX app. The narrative we’re running with is that the Lady Vols fixed UConn. You’re welcome.
NCAAW: #87 Green Bay (-1.5) at #132 Cleveland State, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Fort Wayne is higher in the Horizon League standings, but Cleveland State may be a hair better. Green Bay is a lesser version of their 2024 selves but if they make the Tournament they’ll be an interesting 12/13 seed.
#241 American (-1) at #293 Army, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at #2 in the Patriot League. No league is more home-heavy than PatLeague, whose home teams are 50-20 in conference play this season. Such things happen when the gap from top to bottom in the league is all of seven points per 100.
#38 Nebraska (-1) at #76 Penn State, 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Mild meaning here. Nebraska is 84% to make the field with a win and 78% with a loss.
#54 Cincinnati at #47 West Virginia (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Two-way meaning here! Cincy: 23% to make it with a win, 12% with a loss. WVU: 87% with a win, 64% with a loss. This is the Anxiety Game of the Week.
#82 Providence at #85 Georgetown (-2), 7 PM ET, FS1. Return visit for the Ed Cooley Rivalry. Georgetown’s offense ranks 278th in the last 10 games.
#105 Northern Iowa at #133 Belmont (-1), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the MVC undercard battle for third place. Belmont runs on a pretty thin equation but a fun one: 11-2 when they shoot 40%+ from three, 7-7 when they don’t.
#134 North Dakota State at #101 South Dakota State (-6), 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. Return battle of the Dakota Marker. SDSU stole the first one. Again, I would really like for people to start making the case for All-American Oscar Cluff. Look at this statline.
Do you know how hard it is to do this when you’re the main focus of the opposing scouting report? Cluff is incredible.
#36 Oregon (-1) at #61 Iowa, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. Oregon’s lost four straight road games. I’ll pass for the moment.
NCAAW: #23 Michigan State at #6 USC (-12.5), 8:30 PM ET, Peacock. Pissed-off USC back at home after having to survive Washington…I don’t know that I want that?
#39 Arkansas at #1 Auburn (-17), 9 PM ET, ESPN. This is likely exactly what it says it is, and boy, I do not trust Arkansas to score on Auburn whatsoever. But I think Arkansas might have something here defensively. Since Boogie Fland went out, they’ve played like a top-10 defense and actually play a lot like Auburn does. They’re now funneling everything to the rim and running shooters off the line, which actually works because Big Z has become a legitimate rim protector and Trevon Brazile has dialed up his defense to an unforeseen level. If Arkansas can keep Auburn under 75 I’m intrigued.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
A GAMES
NCAAW: #18 Alabama at #13 Tennessee (-5.5), 5:30 PM ET, SECN+. Your guess is as good as mine why this is at 5:30 PM local. Growing the game, as always! Tennessee handled Ole Miss so well yesterday and has been relentlessly impressive this season; Kim Caldwell is surely on the Coach of the Year shortlist. I do not love this matchup for their defense, with an Alabama team really good at spreading you out in half-court for lots of open threes, but Tennessee’s going to have a serious advantage inside offensively. Really fun pre-sunset battle.
NCAAW: #25 NC State at #26 Georgia Tech (-2.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. What is this scheduling? NC State has some of the most impressive wins in the sport but hasn’t had the metrics to back it up. They’re really, really good at playing with their food, as evidenced in too-close wins over 77th-ranked Miami (76-74), 92nd Wake Forest (90-83) and even 90th-ranked Davidson (59-57). They’re very gettable on defense if you can hit jumpers on their conservative defensive scheme…which has intermittently been Georgia Tech’s thing on offense. We’ll see if it’s one of the nights their shots fall.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #29 Vanderbilt at #17 Oklahoma (-7.5), 6 PM ET, SECN+. ENTIRE SECTION FOR THIS ONE IS IN ALL CAPS THANKS TO MIKAYLA BLAKES. YOU THINK YOU’VE SEEN IT ALL, AND THEN YOU HAVEN’T, BECAUSE YOU SEE A FRESHMAN PUT UP 53 AND 55 IN THE SAME SEASON. MIKAYLA FREAKING BLAKES. AND SHE STILL HAS TO BE IN COLLEGE FOR THREE MORE SEASONS. YOU GOTTA BE KIDDING. WHAT A STAR!
NCAAW: #15 Ohio State (-2.5) at #34 Indiana, 6 PM ET, Peacock. Sorry, this one’s in normal case. OSU has played below their means lately as Indiana seems to be figuring things out a little. I’ve got to see Cotie McMahon realize that some of these shots she takes offensively are absolute possession-ruiners, just garbage that does not need to be attempted. I don’t feel it to be a coincidence that OSU’s three losses have all been games where she’s attempted 7+ midrange jumpers, which she hits at a 34% clip.
NCAAW: #38 Louisville at #7 Duke (-12), 6 PM ET, ESPN2. Lot of bizarrely early stars on this Thursday for decent games. It’s probably time to start talking about this Duke team as a fringe title contender. Yes, seriously! Despite their meh offense, their defense is amazing and forces a truly absurd amount of turnovers, along with plenty bad possessions. They’re WBB Tennessee.
NCAAW: #69 Missouri State at #82 Northern Iowa (-1). Maya McDermott for Northern Iowa is a star: 116 ORtg on 30% USG, 35% AST% to 11% TO%, 93% FT, 43% 3PT. I would like to see them in the Tournament.
#114 North Alabama at #86 Lipscomb (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This seems like it’s going to be for the ASun title once it’s all said and done. If you haven’t seen North Alabama play yet, it is a very downhill offense driven by guards Jacari Lane and Taye Fields that attacks the rim relentlessly. They took the first battle with Lipscomb not because they converted all these rim attempts - 15-28 - but because these rim attempts generated 15 offensive rebounds to Lipscomb’s 7. Lipscomb’s rim protection really isn’t bad, but this system can stretch you thin if you can’t take home the misses.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #16 Kentucky (-10) at #64 Missouri, 6:30 PM ET, SECN+. Frisky Missouri will get one of these eventually. I think.
NCAAW: #55 Florida Gulf Coast (-9.5) at #175 Central Arkansas, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at #2 in the ASUN WBB race. FGCU has realized this is the rare year they’re a defense-first team; since they figured that out they’ve looked the part of a formidable 12/13 seed.
NCAAW: #48 Belmont (-7) at #118 Illinois State, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Another don’t-lose game for a mid-major trying to build an at-large case.
#57 Northwestern at #28 Ohio State (-8), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. The MBB offerings on this night are so boring that I almost protested and left all of these off.
NCAAW: #50 Stanford at #46 Virginia Tech (-4), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Two kinda-good teams that would really like to make the Tournament in Year One of a new coach. VT is in the First Four as of now at ESPN.
NCAAW: #42 George Mason (-4.5) at #90 Davidson, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. George Mason cannot lose this game if it wants to keep building an at-large case.
#157 Bryant (-3) at #251 Vermont, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Can Bryant finally slay the America East demon keeping them from a conference title?
#116 UNC Wilmington (-2) at #215 William & Mary, 7 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Oh, thank God this is on Flo Hoops. I was terrified that the CAA’s two most watchable teams might play a game on a network you don’t have to sell your soul to sign up for.
#56 USC at #17 Maryland (-11), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Maryland’s last eight games, in which they are 7-1: top-25 offense, top-25 defense, and - you guessed it! - a +11% 3PT% delta. Looking a little better than they probably actually are.
NCAAW: #27 Illinois at #5 UCLA (-14), 8:30 PM ET, BTN. Gotta plow through these, sorry. UCLA’s probably too good here; I can fully excuse their near-miss with Michigan State as a hangover from their first loss.
NCAAW D2: #16 Montana State Billings at #20 Alaska Anchorage (-4.5), 9:15 PM ET, YouTube. Not enough D2 WBB on here. Alaska Anchorage!
#121 CSUN at #67 UC Irvine (-9), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. One of the first things you learn as a college basketball writer is to avoid letting yourself get overly attached to any mid-majors because an alarming number of them will find a way to blow it and miss the NCAA Tournament. But, well, sue me, I am overly attached to this UC Irvine team and I need them as a 12 seed like I need air. Both they and UC San Diego should be in the field, period.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
A GAME
#16 Michigan State at #22 Michigan (-2), 8 PM ET, FOX. We are now 14 years out from the Get The F(lip) Off My Court game, which gave this rivalry real juice again that it’s now sustained for the entire period mentioned. This edition may decide the Big Ten title race, which is both terrifying and very funny. I have no real takes; I will simply sit back and watch.
B GAMES
D3: #6 Emory (-1.5) at #15 Chicago, 6:30 PM ET, streaming. Two of the best in D3 going at it. No Escalators is legally required to share this on the twitter if he sees it.
#26 Marquette (-2) at #55 Villanova, 7 PM ET, FS1. I’m openly rooting against Villanova at this point because it irks me every time I see them as a borderline top-50 KenPom team. Like, it makes sense. I’m aware of why it would make sense and that objectively, I should get it. But I want them to be gone, I do not enjoy a single thing about their games, and I have even stopped enjoying Eric Dixon because I wish he played for literally any other coach in the Big East, or perhaps about 150 other coaches in America. Just somebody who could take ERIC FREAKING DIXON to the NCAA Tournament.
C GAMES
#168 Cornell at #65 Yale, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Quietly, Cornell really needs to steal a win against Yale or Brown this weekend. If they don’t, they may miss an Ivy League four-team tournament where they might be the second-best team.
#139 Milwaukee at #196 Youngstown State, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. #4 at #3 in the Horizon. Fun style fight: over the last 7 games, this is #343 in 3PT attempt rate at #28.
ONE TO PLAY US OUT!