Week 15 Weekday Watchlist: Sixteen Carriages, Drivin' Away
yes I like the new songs too
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
We’ll get right into it here. I think most people know the grading scale by now, but we have some new readers thanks to several people sharing this newsletter with others as of late. Thanks, from the bottom of my heart, if you did that. Watchlists are always free but I do encourage you to sign up:
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All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. All D-2 and lower rankings are via Massey. All lines are via KenPom (D1) or Massey (everything else). The Vegas ones change too frequently to use. Grading scale:
FIVE STARS means you need to clear out your schedule to watch that game, barring some sort of deal where your personal team is playing at that time.
FOUR STARS means I recommend at least catching most of the game if you can.
THREE STARS means these are good or fine games, but not top-flight ones that you absolutely need to watch. If required, you can watch the Matthew Loves Ball highlights the next day.
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK is non-negotiable. If you have the remote and aren’t watching it, the problem lies with you. (Though if you are playing or coaching in a game at that time, then I get it.)
This is already ~2,700 words so onward.
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 13
FIVE STARS
#9 Iowa State (-1) at #33 Cincinnati, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Well, what better way to really kick the week off than with a Big 12 bar brawl? These two teams are super physical but in totally different ways. Cincinnati emphasizes their physicality on the boards by running up a huge advantage there, while Iowa State is in your shorts at all times on the perimeter and forces tons of turnovers. Along with Iowa State/Houston I believe this is one of just two possible conference matchups this year between a top 10 defensive TO% and a top 10 OREB%.
#22 New Mexico at #46 Nevada (-1), 11 PM ET, CBSSN. This is the shot-making brawl of the night. Both of these offenses rank in the 300s in three-point attempt rate, but both possess multiple midrange assassins that drive opposing coaches nuts. If you want a very unique game among college basketball programs in 2024 this is all yours. This also has a tremendous amount of bubble leverage, with a Nevada win probably getting them over the hump and into the field for now.
FOUR STARS
#10 Marquette (-3) at #49 Butler, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. This is a giant game for Butler and Butler’s NCAA Tournament case, which makes it all the more important this game will be played at Hinkle. Butler is 10-2 at home, but they’ve enjoyed one peculiarity above all: an 81.4% hit rate on free throws in home games. That seems huge in a toss-up.
#43 St. John’s at #55 Providence (-1), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Speaking of basketball games with gigantic March leverage, here’s one for both teams. I still believe in St. John’s but they blew a golden opportunity at Marquette over the weekend. So did Providence, who seemed to have gotten screwed on the road by the officials. As usual, this will be a test of if Providence’s offense can squeeze out enough points to make good on what Providence’s defense does every night. The Friars are 15-2 when cracking 1+ PPP and 0-7 when they don’t.
#25 Oklahoma at #14 Baylor (-5), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. The mini-Oklahoma panic seems to have subsided, with a 2-0 week getting them back over .500 in Big 12 play and back to 96% to make the Tournament, per Torvik. I’ve still got serious concerns, mostly over their defense on the road. It’s just five games, but OU has managed to go 2-3 despite opponents shooting 24% from three. The best outing anyone put up was UCF’s 6/20 (30%). That spells serious trouble to me when your next road opponent is Baylor and you haven’t showed the ability to control the interior against higher-end competition.
#32 Colorado State at #20 San Diego State (-5), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. I’m a simple man and I love it when the two best (yes, argue with a wall) players in a conference play each other in a game. Isaiah Stevens at CSU takes on Jaedon LeDee of San Diego State. What more could one want in a game?
THREE STARS
#8 North Carolina (-8) at #94 Syracuse, 7 PM ET, ESPN. Weird team, these Orange. Syracuse is 0-6 against Top 50 competition and 15-3 against everyone else, with exactly zero of those six games being within a 17-point scoring margin. On one hand, I don’t think Syracuse has the roster to fight with these teams every night. On the other, they have been profoundly unlucky, with a 23% 3PT and a 44% 3PT allowed. UNC has gotten most of their deserved defensive regression out of the way but you never know.
#63 Pitt at #48 Virginia (-5), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. If UNC loses and UVA wins at the same time, UVA’s not only going to be 20-5, 11-3 ACC, they’re going to be in a dead heat for the conference lead…which is convenient, because UNC and UVA have their one and only game against each other next Saturday. Pitt is mostly here to play spoiler and keep some faint NCAA Tournament hopes alive.
#87 LSU at #27 Florida (-10), 8 PM ET, SEC Network. I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere, and if it has been, I apologize. But is anyone else aware that since Florida benched Riley Kugel on December 30th and has played like the 16th-best team in America since that day, per Torvik? Top-10 offense, too.
#60 Ole Miss at #28 Kentucky (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Speaking of December, at this newsletter, we go back to December all the time. On December 16th, Kentucky had two of their three 7-footers available for the first time all season. Since that day, they’ve had the #3 offense…and the #160 defense. Enough caping for various injuries. Sometimes, you might just suck. This is with opponents only shooting 32% on threes, by the way.
#64 UCF at #12 BYU (-11), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Pretty simple: top-10 defense takes on top-10 offense. This is one of a scant few possible games this year where that happens, which means it’s worth tracking.
#65 Ohio State at #17 Wisconsin (-9), 9 PM ET, Peacock. Both of these teams need a win, but Wisconsin probably needs it more. Seems like Chris Holtmann already knows he’s done anyway.
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 14
Happy Valentine’s Day. Also, happy Ash Wednesday.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #18 Baylor (-2.5) at #39 Oklahoma, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Baylor has begun to fall apart in recent weeks, going just 4-5 in its last nine games, while Oklahoma is a surprise leader of the Big 12 at 11-1 despite a rough non-conference performance. The Sooners have done it thanks to running up a huge shot volume edge in the average game: +3.3 on turnovers, +2.5 on offensive rebounds. That gives them a six-possession edge before shooting even comes into the equation, so when they shoot well, forget about it. OU is a perfect 9-0 when posting an eFG% of 52% or better.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #38 Nebraska at #12 Ohio State (-9.5), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Huge win for Nebraska over the weekend, but a similarly big run of play for Ohio State, too. They’re now standalone #1 in the Big Ten, which is a wild thing to say in a conference as competitive as that one. Nebraska basically has to be good on two-pointers here to hang or win, as they’re 6-6 when shooting below 50% on twos (10-2 otherwise).
NCAAW: #17 Kansas State at #35 Iowa State (-3.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Thanks to injuries, Kansas State is flagging a little as of late, but not as much as an Iowa State team whose Tournament case may be on the brink. If they want to win, they better shoot it. They’re 0-7 when posting an eFG% below 50% and 13-2 otherwise.
#45 South Carolina at #5 Auburn (-10), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. This is South Carolina’s chance to really steal the show. A win here and you become what I think would be the outright leader for the SEC battle, which is a wild thing to ponder.
THREE STARS
#42 Xavier (-1) at #69 Seton Hall, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Can one of you guys pick up the phone.
#73 Miami at #31 Clemson (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Same but less derogatory. Clemson is going to make the Tournament, this is mostly just to avoid falling a little further in NET and such. My no-longer-that-hot take is that Miami basically has to win this one to even be on the bubble.
#97 UMass at #80 Richmond (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. After Dayton’s loss last Friday, Richmond is still technically #1 in the Atlantic 10. This is mostly meaningless unless they or another A-10 team go on to win the conference tournament, but I do think that’s something to ponder. The Torvik TourneyCast™ gives Dayton a 99% chance of making the field, but just a 41% chance of doing it via the auto-bid. Basically, you got a 59% shot of a two-bid A-10. Will it be Richmond who steals a bubble bid? VCU? The Bonnies? Or this frisky UMass team?
#106 Saint Joseph’s at #105 Loyola Chicago (-4), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Same question as the previous game. I regrettably am starting to believe in Loyola, which usually means they’re about to lose four of seven.
#7 Tennessee (-11) at #117 Arkansas, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Good get-right opportunity for Tennessee here even if it’s on the road. This Arkansas team is now on its 13th different starting lineup of the season, and since they got to what I’d loosely call ‘full strength’ in mid-December they’ve played like the 140th-best team in the nation. They, Vandy, and Mizzou represent the SEC’s dregs; this would obviously be a horrific loss for Tennessee, even in a Murphy’s Law arena. Worth noting that the last nine times Tennessee has played a road game after a loss they’re 7-2.
#124 Western Carolina at #72 Samford (-8), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. At least by overall record, these are the two best teams in the SoCon, which is notable in a pretty tough conference. Samford is up to 72nd in KenPom, which is kind of a huge deal when their previous high was 113th 24 years ago. They’re in an unfortunate position where even going 28-3 won’t be enough for an at-large bid with one conference tournament slip-up.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 15
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #14 NC State at #13 Notre Dame (-2.5), 6 PM ET, ACC Network. This is not the ACC matchup I’ve been waiting for - that’s Notre Dame/Virginia Tech on February 29 - but this is probably #2. You get to see the amazing Hannah Hidalgo do her thing here, but serious flowers must be given to one Madison Hayes of NC State. She’s not even a top-three scoring Hayes in college basketball, but the list of players who get 10+ PPG, shoot 40%+ on threes, and grab 2+ offensive rebounds a night is only three players long. A true do-it-all piece on the court.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #45 Syracuse at #47 Miami (-4.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Syracuse is somehow still just one game back of the ACC lead at 20-4 (10-3 ACC) and has had a phenomenal year.
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-12.5) at #30 Tennessee, 7 PM ET, ESPN. While I’m still skeptical of Tennessee’s potential in March, they’ve turned it around a bit and are probably on the good side of the bubble for now. An upset here would probably lock them in, because why wouldn’t it? You need amazing games from everyone, but Jewel Spear feels like the key for me. Hit a few threes here and Tennessee is in business.
NCAAW: #16 Duke at #12 Virginia Tech (-4.5), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. This just barely missed out on being a five-star game, mostly because I can’t say that I enjoy watching Duke’s offense much at all. (They’re under 1 PPP on average over their last 10.) They have an amazing defense, though, and it may be the best Elizabeth Kitley and crew see before March.
NCAAW: #41 Michigan at #4 Iowa (-12.5), 8 PM ET, Peacock. This was belatedly moved up to the four-star line. This will be a historic moment, as Caitlin Clark just needs eight points to break the all-time women’s scoring record. She might do it in the first five minutes, so tune in on time.
THREE STARS
#50 Northwestern (-1) at #82 Rutgers, 6:30 PM ET, BTN. No.
#78 Memphis at #74 North Texas (-4), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Memphis has pulled out of their explosive tailspin but the damage is done; sixth place in a really bad AAC isn’t going to get it done. This would’ve been a more interesting game on January 15.
#110 Morehead State (-5) at #239 Little Rock, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at (tied for) #2 in the Ohio Valley race. Preston Spradlin is doing an unbelievable job at Morehead State, by the way. Who loses the best player from their team two weeks before the season begins and gets better?
NCAAW: #62 Vanderbilt at #57 Texas A&M (-7.5), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Vanderbilt has nearly fully collapsed and would be at 5-7 in SEC play with a loss here. Not much going right for that school at the moment.
#37 Colorado (-2) at #71 UCLA, 9 PM ET, ESPN. FWIW, since UCLA committed to their main lineup in late December: 71st in Torvik, 24th defensively. Narrow it down further to the last month of play and they’ve been a top-25 team. It took a while but they’re finally playing competent hoops; count them out in the Pac-12 Tournament at your own risk.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#22 New Mexico at #20 San Diego State (-4), 10 PM ET, FS1. This is Real Hoop to the core. We’ll have a piece up before this game on New Mexico’s greatly-improved defense, which has been the real engine behind their huge 2024 rise to go with an already-steady offense. In this game, they’ll have to battle on both ends to get what they want, as New Mexico’s crew of midrange assassins must defeat the best defense in the conference on the road in a terribly hard place to win at. I cannot wait for this game, even though it’s past my bedtime.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #15 Colorado at #8 Utah (-5.5), 8 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
NCAAW: #10 UCLA (-2.5) at #23 Oregon State, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Terrific Friday night two-pack here on P12N. If you can find that network, these games are all yours. All four teams have at least one huge reason to watch:
Colorado is remarkably dominant on non-rim twos, shooting 43% from the midrange this season on high volume.
The Pac-12 has 13 players who shoot 38% or better from three on at least three deep attempts per game. Utah has four of them: Kennady McQueen, Jenna Johnson, Alissa Pili, and Maty Wilke.
UCLA has four of the Pac-12’s top eight scorers in terms of fast break points.
Oregon State’s incomprehensible Raegan Beers is one of seven players in America (just three of whom play for Big Six schools) to average 15+ PPG, 3+ OREBs, 1+ APG, 1+ SPG, and 1+ BPG. The only higher-profile player to do it right now would be Aneesah Morrow at LSU.
FOUR STARS
This song. Lovely! Points to you if you remember the summer of 2009 like I do musically, even though this was 2006.
THREE STARS
#263 Niagara at #176 Fairfield (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. #3 at #2 in the MAAC race. Niagara really intrigues me because they take away assists and three-point attempts better than almost anyone. I’d like to see Greg Paulus’s system somewhere with more talent.
NCAAW: #128 Georgetown at #3 UConn (-31.5), 7 PM ET, SNY. Not much has gone right for Georgetown basketball in general this winter, so I’d like to shout out Kelsey Ransom: 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 4 APG, and 2.1 SPG (5th-best in the Big East) is a pretty tough statline.
NCAAW: #22 USC (-4.5) at #82 Oregon, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Watkins Watch is back. JuJu Watkins sits at 27.7 PPG and should be a near-lock to finish second in scoring nationally behind Caitlin Clark. To do it in one’s freshman year…I mean.