Week 15 Weekend Watchlist: The 2025 Tuscaloosa Points Festival
Free layups for everyone
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
I spent the week reading Futuromania by Simon Reynolds, a book on music over the last ~50 years that has sounded like the general theory of ‘tomorrow.’ I have no idea what tomorrow actually sounds like, given it is today, but I’ve always thought of the above song as pressing forward in some manner, especially for 1981.
Anyway, here are a bunch of games. Here are the two things I wrote this week as well. The first, a rant on CFP Culture beginning to leak into the bracket reveal, which has made bracketology significantly worse:
The second, a paid piece, is one of my favorite things I have ever written: a breakdown of why Creighton’s deep-drop defense, aka the KalkDrop, works:
On with the show. As a reminder: D1 MBB rankings via KenPom, D1 WBB rankings via Torvik.
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 22
THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEKEND
#17 Kentucky at #6 Alabama (-6), 6 PM ET, ESPN. Even as someone who has now gone on record as thinking this Kentucky team is fool’s gold when it comes to March, I have sympathy for their spot luck here. This is a UK team down two starters about to travel to play a pissed-off Alabama team that has lost two in a row (including their Super Bowl) and would love nothing more than to drop 120 on Kentucky in 40 minutes of hell.
There are two ways to tell how a Kentucky game’s going to go: if they can shut the opponent’s water off at the rim whatsoever (usually not), and if they can hit their own twos. Kentucky is 6-7 when allowing 10+ made layups or dunks per CBB Analytics, but 12-1 when they hold opponents under that number. (Not great when you’re playing Alabama, who averages 16 a game.) They’re also a perfect 12-0 when hitting 56% or more of their twos (6-8 otherwise).
Combine those two together - <10 layups/dunks given up, >56% from two - and Kentucky has managed that combo thrice all season. The good news: this Alabama team is very capable of allowing a fourth. After a brief spurt of threatening respectability, Alabama’s defense is back to what it usually is, a unit that never forces turnovers and is reliant on its frontcourt to clean up the mistakes its guards make on the perimeter. The upside for Kentucky: this should mean points. The downside for Kentucky: this will also mean points for Alabama’s offense. The upside for you, the viewer: this game may well end with both cracking 95+.
A GAMES
#5 Tennessee (-1) at #18 Texas A&M, 12 PM ET, ESPN. Avert your eyes. While this is something resembling a Sweet Sixteen-level game, it is also something more resembling rugby than actual basketball. In the seven meetings between Rick Barnes and Buzz Williams, the loser’s been held to an average of 60.7 PPG and they’ve combined for 122 points or less three different times.
This year’s edition may be the ugliest yet. Tennessee’s offense really isn’t that bad, and truth be told, this matchup is potentially favorable to them as an attack-and-kick style offense because TAMU is more than happy to let you shoot a billion threes. (The teams that have held UT’s offense down best have all been teams that want to funnel you to the paint/midrange and have low opponent 3PT attempt rates.) But it also opens up Tennessee’s path to shooting 25% from 3, which is never outlandish.
Meanwhile Texas A&M remains exceptionally easy to decipher: they win games when they pile up rebounds and points in the paint (4-5 when under 25). Tennessee is an exceptional shot volume generator and preventer while allowing the second-fewest points in the paint in the SEC. (A&M is first.) One other key aspect: A&M is super-reliant on getting to the line often, averaging 24 FTAs a game and going 15-2 this year when getting north of 20. Tennessee gives up the fewest FTAs in the conference. How this game is officiated will say a lot about the future outcome.
#9 Iowa State at #3 Houston (-9), 2 PM ET, ESPN. Fun! The teams to really get Houston’s goose defensively this year all take and make jumpers off the dribble, and crucially, they’re really good at beating the Houston blitz by quickly getting it to the roller to make the possession 4-on-3. Iowa State doesn’t really do the former or the latter much, which makes me feel this isn’t a great matchup.
Still, Houston’s aggressiveness can go overboard sometimes and get them in serious foul trouble, and it’s not as if their offense isn’t capable of their own ugly stretches at times. I’d wager if ISU wins this game they held Houston below 65, which last happened in a Houston conference home game in January 2024. By the way, I finished writing this section and saw this, so disregard. Ugh.
#70 George Mason at #31 VCU (-8), 4 PM ET, CBSSN. Functionally, this is for the A-10 regular season title. I would also argue it is potentially for VCU’s at-large case. Torvik gives them a 72% shot at one with a win here. Technically, the best outcome is a GMU win because it gives both a 30-50% chance, but the smarter two-bid A10 sacrifice is VCU wins out/GMU (or whoever) wins the conference tournament.
VCU’s offense remains touch-and-go in half-court but is lethal in transition and scramble situations, which is pretty crucial when playing a George Mason team that limits both, but GMU’s defensive structure (pack it in, force kickout threes, don’t let the ball-handler do much) might actually benefit VCU because they want the ball kicked out. I don’t know, I could see this going a few different ways, but it should help VCU to have a real turnover and rebounding advantage here. GMU’s path is very reliant on lots of FTs, which…does not often happen in Richmond.
#1 Duke (-9) vs. #19 Illinois, 8 PM ET, FOX. Annoying but great. You know how it is. I’m aware Illinois is 17-10 but they are very much this year’s 2022-23 Creighton or 2021-22 Texas, a team with an ugly W-L record but excellent metrics. I am fascinated to see how Duke battles with a defense that allows fewer catch-and-shoot threes than almost anyone and funnels everything to the paint or the mid-range, two areas Duke really hasn’t attacked as much as you’d think. Offensively for Illinois…uh…we’ll see. Maybe this is the game they shoot 43% from three out of nowhere.
#30 BYU at #12 Arizona (-7), 10 PM ET, ESPN. Mere days off of helping complete the funniest sweep of the year (BYU + Utah’s combined Mountain Sweep of Kansas), BYU must now travel south to play an Arizona side that beat them by 11 at their house not even three weeks ago. Can BYU turn it around this time?
It’s plausible, of course, but the #1 area to clean up is the boards. BYU’s a top-10 defensive rebounding squad in America, but Arizona got back 37% of their missed shots in the first battle, the fifth-highest they’ve allowed this year. Defensive rebounding has been the main story of their few Big 12 losses. Five times since Big 12 play began, BYU’s opposition has gotten back 35% or more of their missed shots. BYU is 1-4 in these games, and three were double-digit losses. It cannot happen a sixth time if they want to win the rubber match.
B GAMES
#34 Oregon at #7 Wisconsin (-9), 12 PM ET, FOX. Oregon has stopped the bleeding by winning three straight, partially due to finally protecting the boards fairly well and partially due to those three being Northwestern/Rutgers/Iowa. Since conference play began they’ve played like an NIT side with atrocious rim protection. While I’m not fully buying Wisconsin (41% from three since NYD!) this is a pretty bad matchup for the Ducks.
#46 West Virginia at #8 Texas Tech (-11), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. House money game for WVU. A win and you’re probably fully locked into the 2025 NCAA Tournament; a loss and you lose no real ground. I can’t say I love this matchup for WVU; teams that have beaten TTU this year generally try to turn their water off on their numerous perimeter drives and force guarded kickout threes. WVU doesn’t over-commit and largely stays 1-on-1, which can be great when you’re playing a team that has meh guards but isn’t ideal when the opponent has Darrion Williams.
NCAAW: #32 Iowa State at #20 Baylor (-6.5), 2:30 PM ET, FOX. Iowa State is still in late February without a true great win, as the best is probably a road win over an Arizona team that won’t make the Tournament. Pretty much every major team ISU’s lost to is exceptional at eliminating the big cut/roll that is the key function of their offense with Audi Crooks, but Baylor’s just okay at that and at 1-on-1 post defense. Area of opportunity for the Signature Win.
#23 Ole Miss (-2) at #48 Vanderbilt, 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Sue me, I’m openly rooting for Vandy here. What? You don’t want this wacky team in the Tournament? I’m not sure they can play a full 40 minutes, but they track like a lot of 10/11 seeds that have made the Round of 32 in previous years.
#21 Clemson (-1) at #38 SMU, 4 PM ET, ACC Network. There’s a lot of mess being made over SMU having zero Quad 1 wins but having pretty good metrics. As such, we cannot put this team in the Tournament, or so I’m told. Is the resume actually bad, though? They’re 43rd in Wins Above Bubble. By the average of the resume metrics (KPI, Strength of Record, WAB) they come out 46th-best, ahead of a Texas team everyone has in. Going 20-6 against a top-100 schedule isn’t easy! I look forward to the day I never have to hear of ‘quadrants’ again.
NCAAW: #45 Columbia at #44 Princeton (-3), 5:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Great hoop. Princeton needs this for an at-large more than Columbia does, but it’s easier said than done given Columbia winning the first game 58-50 and forcing a turnover on 39% (?!?) of Princeton possessions. Princeton has to win this on the boards and down low to win the full game.
#13 Missouri (-2) at #37 Arkansas, 8 PM ET, ESPN. Arkansas probably needs this game to solidify a Tournament case, whereas Mizzou is kinda quietly pacing for a 3 seed. I have to admit I was wrong on Dennis Gates, I guess. BUT! I’ll also admit I was wrong about Arkansas’ season being over: the last eight games, they’ve played like a top-10 defense and are forcing more turnovers, which aids an awful offense by creating more transition play. I don’t think they can keep up here but we’ll see.
#20 Saint Mary’s at #10 Gonzaga (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN2. Here’s your actual MUST WIN GAME. Gonzaga only drops to 95% at Torvik to make the field with a loss but with a win giving them 99% odds to make it, this is as close to “we really gotta have this” as possible. Saint Mary’s gameplans for Gonzaga over the years are always tremendous, but over the last month, Gonzaga’s defense has quietly become pretty awesome (top 10 last 8 games). Emmanuel Innocenti adds plus perimeter defense where there was none prior.
#41 San Diego State at #42 Utah State (-4), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. 8 PM is pretty stacked, huh? SDSU’s offense is abysmal in half-court and only looks functional when they create in transition, perhaps not ideal against a USU outfit sitting in the 13th-percentile in opponent transition usage. The downside for USU is that in half-court SDSU’s also elite at eliminating their key actions (Martinez/Falslev perimeter drives, Templin backdoor cuts). The first saw USU win 67-66 on the road, but neither cracked 1 PPP.
C GAMES
#83 TCU at #54 Cincinnati (-7), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. A more honorable man would leave this game off. Regrettably, because each can jump to a 1-in-4 (TCU) or 1-in-10 (Cincy) chance of making the field by winning, it does have meaning.
#28 Mississippi State at #50 Oklahoma (-1), 1 PM ET, SEC Network. I have kind of enjoyed poking fun at Oklahoma for the last month because anyone who fell for their whole thing in December probably did the exact same thing in December 2023 with an obviously bad Ole Miss team, but even I couldn’t have anticipated just how nasty the regression would hit. Last four games: 21-83 (25.3%) 3PT, opponents 36-93 (38.7%).
#167 Towson at #178 Campbell (-2), 2 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Well, if only anyone could watch this game. Can the CAA please get a contract with a real website or network? Ridiculous.
NCAAW: #99 Norfolk State (-5.5) at #185 Coppin State, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. If Norfolk wins this we’re setting up for a truly tremendous MEAC season-ender on March 6: 13-0 Norfolk at 12-1 Howard for the MEAC title. Great fun.
NCAAW: #47 UNLV (-3.5) at #90 Colorado State, 3 PM ET, MWN. #1 at #2 in the MWC title race. This UNLV team is fascinating for March purposes: +4.9 TO margin against Q1-Q3 opposition, 7th-best in DREB%. If they can score inside at all they’re a scary 11/12 seed. Colorado State, meanwhile: 340th in defensive TO%, 361st (!) in OREB%. Not really the profile of a March standout, traditionally.
NCAAW: #70 Missouri State at #68 Drake (-3), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. #1 at #2 in the MVC title race. The Lady Bears have played like a top-60 team over the last month, which is when they have more or less fully committed to a 5-out style. Very fun group to watch.
#45 Georgia at #2 Auburn (-17), 4 PM ET, ESPN. Long overdue for a moderately disappointing Auburn performance, which we got against Arkansas. Georgia did only lose 70-68 to a Broome-less Auburn last month, and Mike White’s defensive style did force the Tigers to take 18 dribble jumpers (four above average) and 8 runners (season-high). But…well…I mean, what’s Georgia’s path to a win here? Auburn shooting 15% on threes as Georgia squeaks out 65 points somehow? Feels like an Auburn 80-61 W.
#29 Baylor (-5) at #96 Colorado, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. A Baylor loss here and I’m frankly good on hearing about them until November. Colorado’s tried a different starting lineup in five straight games, which has resulted in the 313th-best eFG% and 325th-best TO%.
#173 Texas A&M Corpus Christi at #69 McNeese (-11), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Time for the old standard: is McNeese flagging, unlucky, or just bored? Since Joe Charles returned from a night off on January 25, McNeese has played like the 112th-best team in America. This is despite shooting 39% from three, winning OREB/TO by a combined +8.8 per 100 possessions, and going 7-1. Now, opponents have shot 35.3% from deep, but that’s not too far off the prior average of 31.9%. Something to keep an eye on.
#57 Santa Clara (-3) at #107 Washington State, 6 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Santa Clara jumps to a 9% chance of an at-large bid with a win. It’s not 0%!
#49 Boise State at #74 Nevada (-1), 6 PM ET, FS1. A classic Mountain West game here. Boise can’t really help themselves by winning (34% to make the field), but they can hurt themselves by losing (24%). Of all the possible MWC opponents over the years, Alford-era Nevada has actually given Boise real trouble; they’re just 7-6 overall and 5-8 ATS. Also worth noting that in the 11 non-MWCT battles the home team is 8-3.
#93 Akron (-4) at #186 Ohio, 6 PM ET, ESPN2. Akron: still undefeated. Since the calendar flipped to 2025, they’ve outshot opponents by 14% (!) from 2 and 8.3% from 3. Very, very 3PT-reliant team, though, and they don’t generate a ton of shot volume to save a bad shooting night. TBD on March.
#35 Texas (-3) at #84 South Carolina, 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Look, freaks: South Carolina is going to get one eventually. Our old Expected Scores friend has South Carolina with an expected SEC record of 2-11. They should’ve won the Ole Miss game. Yet they don’t do anything on offense other than get fouled a lot, and their semi-drop coverage on defense is reasonably similar to the LSU one that Texas just beat by 31. I think both the Georgia and Arkansas matchups are more favorable than this.
#68 Colorado State (-1) at #94 UNLV, 10 PM ET, CBSSN. Not for much of anything, but it’s on and Colorado State is a really fun viewing experience.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 23
A GAMES
NCAAW: #8 West Virginia at #11 TCU (-1), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. This West Virginia team is pretty scary and pretty salty. I also fear they’re getting better by the week. Over the last 10 games, this is the third-best defense in America, and while it did take them until Monday to get their first actual Quadrant 1 win, they got it in style by beating Kansas State 70-57 thanks to forcing turnovers on 29% of possessions.
This is on the road, and it feels like a much worse matchup. TCU’s ball-handling this year has been terrific (10th in TO%), and West Virginia does not have a player capable of handling Sedona Prince 1-on-1. WVU is undersized, which lends itself to a frenetic pace and a monstrous amount of turnovers forced. But: if you can get it into the half-court and hunt Prince, I am not sure what WVU can do. They haven’t been one to double or trap all that much in half-court this year, instead relying on their excellent press and the structure of their zone defense to cause havoc. Either way, lots of fun.
NCAAW: #5 UCLA (-8.5) at #23 Iowa, 2 PM ET, Peacock. Well, Iowa already pulled off one major home upset of a California team. Why not two in a month? If it requires another jersey retirement, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to retire Monika Czinano’s. Behind Clark and Megan Gustafson, I think she’s inarguably a top-three player in Iowa basketball history. Also, fun fact: for a project in summer 2019, I conversed over email with Lisa Bluder about what was next post-Gustafson. Fun response here to my simplistic, idiotic question about “who’s your next great post player.”
The matchup with USC was a bit more advantageous because the Trojans aren’t nearly as effective at rim denial as Cori Close’s scheme is, while Iowa (sue me!) did get some beneficial calls. The latter could happen again, but UCLA is in the 99th-percentile nationally at both rim FGAs allowed and rim FG%, and little about the Iowa offense this year has suggested a consistent ability to shoot over the top of that. A win here likely means any and all of Lucy Olsen, Sydney Affolter, and Taylor McCabe went nuts.
NCAAW: #12 LSU at #16 Kentucky (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN. This one’s just fun. LSU can technically still be in the mix for the regular season title, as can Kentucky, but I think the safe thing is to assume that neither Texas nor South Carolina (both 12-1) slip up again, particularly when the losses are to each other.
So, instead, this one merely registers as a great basketball game. It’s also a very fun philosophy battle. LSU, as usual, will want to run off of missed shots and turnovers, and their transition usage rate is in the 95th-percentile nationally. Kentucky’s been good at holding down opponent transition usage, but the real problem here will be on the boards; they’re a bad rebounding team and LSU is LSU. On the other side of the ball, LSU’s drop coverage forces a lot of dribble jumpers…which they haven’t defended well, and which Kentucky hits a lot of. This is also a post-first offense despite Amoore and crew, which makes for a fascinating chess match. No clue how this goes.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #4 Notre Dame (-10.5) at #24 NC State, 12 PM ET, ESPN. In the race for a 1 seed this one’s uber-important for Notre Dame to get across the finish line. It’s also probably the last real struggle standing between Notre Dame and finishing 18-0 in conference play. Given that exactly one team (Clemson by 9) kept it within single digits of them my hopes aren’t high here.
#36 UConn at #16 St. John’s (-8), 12 PM ET, FOX. I still believe in UConn in the sense that they’re basically a turnover problem away from playing like a top 25 team. Of course, a turnover problem is about the last thing you need on your side when you’re playing St. John’s.
NCAAW: #13 North Carolina (-3.5) at #36 Louisville, 2 PM ET, ESPN. Look, if Louisville can get to the rim against the fabulous UNC defense, more power to ‘em. They’re 15-1 this year when they make 10 or more shots at the rim, per CBB Analytics. The problem: UNC has given up 10+ four times all season.
NCAAW: #33 Indiana at #21 Michigan State (-6), 2 PM ET, BTN. Indiana is good now! Finally! It helps when you shoot 9-17 from three to beat Ohio State, but hey, major hat tip. Worth noting that over the last ten games they’re playing like a top-25 team.
NCAAW: #2 South Carolina (-13.5) at #28 Vanderbilt, 3 PM ET, SECN+. I guess I’ll believe South Carolina loses one of these when I see it, but frankly I’m not sure I care much. South Carolina probably wins this 74-64 or something as Mikayla Blakes drops 30, and that is worthy of a view.
NCAAW: #49 Belmont (-1.5) at #69 Murray State, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. The MVC race is coming down to the wire, with all of Missouri State (13-2), Drake (12-3), Belmont, Murray State, and Illinois State (all 11-4) being in contention for the title. It’s meaningful to at least be top four because you get a bye into the quarterfinals, but we might end up in a situation where the best (by metrics) team ends up the 5 seed.
#32 Ohio State at #26 UCLA (-5), 3:45 PM ET, CBS. Ohio State has once again bottomed out after people were BACK IN on the Bucks, and, well…look. I’m happy with this one.
Since this was written on December 13, Ohio State is 9-9, is down to +5.3% on threes, and currently projects as a First Four team at Torvik. Grand slam to deep center.
NCAAW: #31 Florida State at #25 Georgia Tech (-5.5), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. The problem with Florida State isn’t Ta’Niya Latson, who rocks. It’s an openly weak defense. FSU sits 78th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 107th over the last 10 games, which is probably bad news for a deep run but great news for the watchability factor.
NCAAW: #43 George Mason (-1) at #61 Saint Joseph’s, 4 PM ET, ESPNU. Continuing in our hope for the three-bid A10: George Mason absolutely has to win this game. No negotiating. Richmond is probably in the field if it starts today as a 10 seed, but GMU has work to do. Better win this.
#60 Drake (-1) at #99 Northern Iowa, 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Ben Jacobson is the proverbial cockroach. Simply unkillable. UNI’s system is the same as ever: very few chances taken on either end (low turnovers, low offensive rebounds), an offense that generates great shots (top-30 in 2PT% and 3PT%), and a plausible-enough Drake antidote. They lost the first match 66-52 but Drake is unlikely to shoot 10-16 from 3 again.
C GAMES
#203 Merrimack (-2) at #275 Iona, 1 PM ET, ESPN+. It’s certainly a game that is on. Iona’s offense is so bad that I anticipate it’ll get eaten alive by Merrimack.
NCAAW: #14 Tennessee (-13.5) at Florida, 1 PM ET, SEC Network. The Lady Vols: 3 seed? Some, like me, are asking. Florida’s defense is actually pretty good, and their otherwise-meh offense is quite good at hitting bigs on the roll…but, well, I’ll believe Tennessee loses a game to a non-Tournament team when I see it.
#14 Purdue (-4) at #56 Indiana, 1:30 PM ET, CBS. It took three months, but regression has finally hit the Boilermakers; they’ve lost three in a row and have a serious fouling problem because they have nothing in the way of true rim protection. Indiana is actually fairly well-suited to take advantage of this, which means they will lose 82-70 at home.
#126 Milwaukee at #168 Robert Morris (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Horizon League title battle. Robert Morris has been almost 10 points better over the last month, fwiw.
NCAAW: #26 Utah (-10.5) at #86 Cincinnati, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Scrounging about for interesting games to fill out the C Games sheet. This is kinda one, as Cincinnati could Actually For Real make the Tournament by merely going 2-1 to end the year. The problem: that involves beating two of Utah (10.5 point dogs), Oklahoma State (15), and West Virginia (15.5).
NCAAW: #42 Washington at #40 Nebraska (-4), 3 PM ET, BTN+. Washington is in the same situation but they probably have to finish 3-0.
#80 Georgetown at #33 Creighton (-10), 4 PM ET, Peacock. I’ll never pass up an opportunity to self-promote, particularly when I think it’s one of the best things I’ve ever written.
#75 Utah at #77 UCF (-4), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Uh…I guess. Utah still has a very very tiny at-large case if you squint.
NCAAW: #27 Illinois at #6 USC (-12.5), 4 PM ET, FS1. Probably too low, and I think Illinois keeps this within 15, but hard to get up for a game where you feel like you know the outcome: USC by a score of 73-59 or so.
ONE TO PLAY US OUT!
I would trust UK against Alabama a bit more today if Amari Williams wasn’t prone to getting out of position trying to hyper-contest. Your Kalkbrenner article crystallized to me how damaging that is to UK against teams who are crafty on the inside.