Week 16 Watchlist: Armed With a Safety Pin
Get ready for the Texan War tonight
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
4,300+ words lie ahead of you. I apologize. This week’s schedule offers two features on lower divisions (one on D2, one on D3) to prep you for their incoming Tournaments. The other will be on a team that’s drawing charges better than anyone else in the sport and how they’re doing it. Time to go for a run.
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 24
THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
#3 Houston (-1) at #7 Texas Tech, 9 PM ET, ESPN. This is what Steelers/Ravens was like at its peak. This is Real War, with two super-physical basketball teams, two elite (yes) head coaches, two terrific rosters, and perhaps as perfectly-timed a game as could possibly happen. This would’ve been my A+ Game of the Week even if it meant nothing whatsoever, which it only really does for Tournament seeding, but hey, that’s a meaningful thing. This could be the difference between Houston getting a 1 seed or a 2.
In the first matchup, two really important things happened beyond JT Toppin’s accidental nut-kick and Grant McCasland’s justified freakout. For once, a Houston team that is normally amazing on the boards actually got equaled by TTU, giving up a season-high in second-chance points (16). The other: Tech heavily restricted Houston’s attack-and-kick game to an unforeseen level, allowing just three (!) kickout attempts, per Hoop-Explorer. It still stands as Houston’s lowest three-point attempt rate of the year, which is pretty huge considering how good of a 3PT% team Houston’s been.
For Houston to avoid a sweep, they’ll have to do some tamping down of their own against Tech. Houston gave up their second-highest opponent 3PT attempt rate of the year in the first game, which meant they ruled the paint but also left themselves open to TTU shooting 12-30 from deep. The other: be a bit more decisive. Houston’s fourth-slowest offensive pace of the season came in the first matchup, averaging 21.2 (!) seconds per possession. Four times they’ve gone 21+ seconds on average; they’re 1-3 with the one win being the miraculous Kansas game. Can’t wait for this one.
A GAME
NCAAW: #19 Baylor at #9 Kansas State (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. The Big 12 title race is almost decided, in that TCU’s got an 89% chance of at least a share of the title. Baylor and Kansas State are the two teams that can determine if it’s a share or if it’s outright. Baylor wins and it’s a very likely split title; KSU wins and it’s TCU’s entirely barring a weekend loss to the Bears.
While Ayoka Lee did make a cameo (five minutes) this weekend, I don’t think anyone is rushing to declare her fully back, which means KSU’s style will continue to be much different. Sans Lee they’ve been far more perimeter-oriented, both in taking threes and in creating offense from downhill drives. I’m intrigued by this because the construct of the Baylor defense is one that doesn’t over-help on downhill drives and largely stays 1-on-1, which puts the onus on the guard to finish or to hit pull-up jumpers. KSU is limited at both of these things. But: Baylor’s offense is essentially required to create from the post, and even without Lee, KSU’s post defense is great.
B GAME
#23 Michigan (-2) at #46 Nebraska, 8 PM ET, FS1. Michigan has two items at stake here: the need to hang onto a top-four NCAA Tournament seed (Torvik puts it at about 45%) and the need to keep touch with Michigan State for the league title (49% for a share). The problem with Michigan’s defensive setup here is that it actually feeds quite well into the shots Nebraska wants to generate: lots of off-ball screens, happily chasing mid-range jumpers, etc. The upside is that Nebraska cannot and will not bother you on the perimeter, so Michigan may take 30+ threes here.
C GAMES
#126 UNC Wilmington (-1) at #202 William and Mary, 6 PM ET, Flo Hoops. These two are battling it out for second in the CAA, but more importantly they’re battling it out for a conference tournament double-bye. Considering the only CAA tournament to have someone below a 4 seed to win it was 2021, when teams were playing nine games each, it’s very meaningful.
#44 North Carolina (-2) at #85 Florida State, 7 PM ET, ESPN. UNC jumps to 33% to make the field with a win, per Torvik.
#183 Eastern Kentucky at #178 Jacksonville (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Similar to UNCW/W&M this may only be for the ability to wear home uniforms in your first conference tournament game, but worth noting that in conference play Jacksonville has had the league’s best defense.
#21 Kansas (-7) at #92 Colorado, 11 PM ET, ESPN. FWIW, Kansas is owed some significant positive regression on the offensive end, as in road games this year they’ve shot 30.9% from 3 (36.8% everywhere else).
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25
A GAME
#38 New Mexico at #42 San Diego State (-4), 11 PM ET, FS1. There’s no real headline affairs on this Tuesday so I’m cheating a bit, but I think this is a worthy cheat. Statistically speaking, SDSU only has the third-best homecourt advantage in the Mountain West per KenPom, but because it’s the MWC, this means it’s a top-20 homecourt in the sport. (UNM and Utah State are both higher.)
Game-wise this comes down to exactly one thing in each direction: can San Diego State prevent New Mexico, possibly the most transition-heavy team in the sport, from scoring a bunch of points on the fastbreak? On the other end, can a fairly middling Aztec offense utilize one of the few UNM flaws - overhelping on perimeter drives - against them and knock down some threes? The other minor note to look for is if UNM goes cold at any point; they’re 2-4 this year when allowing a 10-0 run or greater (20-1 in all other games).
B GAMES
#30 Baylor at #52 Cincinnati (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I’m a man of my word: I am good on this Baylor team going forward. No thanks! A loss here puts them at just 62% to make the field of 68, which is wild to me but honestly understandable. That being said, Scott Drew is 3-0 against Wes Miller and has held the ‘Cats under 60 all three times. Do it a fourth and you’ll be on track to make the Tournament as a deeply unsatisfying 9 seed.
#4 Florida (-8) at #45 Georgia, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Speaking of coach versus coach, Todd Golden is 6-0 against Mike White, though only 3-3 ATS. I still think it’s notable that White - a genuinely good defensive coach - has held Florida under 80 just once as the opponent. UF is still owed some major negative regression on defense (5% 3PT, 6% midrange per ShotQuality), but Georgia does not strike me as the offense best suited to take advantage of that.
#29 Mississippi State at #6 Alabama (-9), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Speaking of serious regression owed, Mississippi State is shooting 29.9% from deep away from home and 33.6% on their own court…while also allowing opponents to shoot 37% from deep at home. This actually tracks as a decent matchup in MSU’s favor as a defense that’s very good at limiting transition play, but Oats is 6-0/5-1 ATS versus Jans and it’s largely been due to Jans’ offenses not keeping up.
#11 Gonzaga (-5) at #55 Santa Clara, 11 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. We are officially in a CRISIS with Gonzaga because they got swept by Saint Mary’s. The season is OVER. Everyone is DEAD. I don’t know, I kinda think a top-15 KenPom team is probably still pretty good and Mark Few made an understandable fatherly error by starting his son on senior night. Still, Santa Clara (6-2 ATS vs. Zags) is one of two WCC teams over the last few years to consistently give Gonzaga fits.
C GAMES
#86 Providence at #27 Marquette (-12), 7 PM ET, FS1. Since NYD: Providence 80th, Marquette 61st. That is really, really horrid, and it’s because a once-elite 2PT% generator is now shooting 49.5% from two while remaining the same hot-and-cold defense they’ve always been. The lack of a great post presence really kills the Shaka system, I think. It’s also not a deal where I think they could suddenly revert to non-con form in March because that was built on shooting extremely well on jumpers (34% 3PT, but 47% midrange), and unless they can sprint on you in transition the scoring just doesn’t come like it did last year or the year before.
NCAAW: #74 UTSA (-3) at #130 Tulane, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. UTSA can functionally clinch a share of the AAC title (and go to 83% for an outright one) with a win here. I’ve noted before I love this UTSA team as a deeper seed for March.
D2: #10 Pace University (-3.5) at #50 Assumption, 7:30 PM ET, Flo Hoops. This is Lower Division Week at the newsletter, as you’ll learn over the next few days. I haven’t talked much about Pace yet but the Setters (yes) are phenomenal defensively: 98th-percentile Steal%, 99th-percentile efficiency, opponents shooting 47% on twos and 28% on threes.
#94 Washington at #9 Wisconsin (-16), 9 PM ET, Peacock. Interested to see how Wisconsin recovers from their awful blown lead at home to Oregon on Saturday.
#70 Iowa at #25 Illinois (-11), 9 PM ET, FS1. Interested to see how Illinois recovers from (gestures at everything).
#74 South Carolina at #14 Missouri (-13), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Interested to - alright, you get it. But it feels good to finally be right about South Carolina winning a basketball game.
#5 Tennessee (-10) at #79 LSU, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Across three Barnes/McMahon matchups (including one at Murray), Tennessee is 3-0 with wins by 19, 20, and 21 points. Two truly horrid trends for LSU, both in conference play: -11.3 per 100 on OREB margin, -4.4 per 100 on turnovers. When I watch them play I often don’t understand who or what is supposed to be good.
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 26
A GAMES
#10 Michigan State at #15 Maryland (-3), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. You know I love a good chess match. State wants to run, run, and run some more, particularly because they really don’t generate much in the half-court aside from Jaden Akins/Jase Richardson rim attacks or Kohler/Carr rolls to the rim. Maryland’s pretty good at transition denial, but they want to run a lot too and pound the post through their two bigs. State is a good-but-not-elite post defense. If all cancels out, it comes down to shooting, and…well, we usually don’t lean State in that department.
NCAAW: #22 Michigan State at #18 Ohio State (-4.5), 7 PM ET, BTN+. A lot of good WBB is getting shoved to BTN+, which is a bummer. MSU and OSU are almost the same team: very transition-heavy on offense, very aggressive on the perimeter defensively, and both a little undersized which allows a lot of opponent second chances to come about. The key differences here: who’s more efficient in transition and who takes advantage of the kickout threes each defense generates.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #24 Iowa at #20 Michigan (-3.5), 7 PM ET, BTN+. Meanwhile, Iowa and Michigan are very much not the same team. Iowa isn’t really great at any one thing offensively but their defense, particularly at the rim, has been stellar. Michigan looks to create almost everything from the perimeter, which can be great when they’re hitting shots but is a tough watch when they aren’t. Overly reductive, I’m aware, but Michigan creates so much from perimeter drives and attacks, and I wonder if in this matchup they could get too 3PT-heavy, especially with an Iowa defense that’s fantastic at rim denial.
NCAAW: #25 Utah at #8 West Virginia (-8.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Every West Virginia game feels like the Nelson Muntz “stop hitting yourself” bit. If you turn it over against WVU you’ll lose; if you don’t, you got a good shot. Ute opponents average 13.1 PPG off of turnovers; WVU has posted 13 or fewer points off TOs three times all season.
#43 Vanderbilt at #20 Texas A&M (-8), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Monster win for Vandy over the weekend, who now sits at around 80% to make the Tournament at Torvik. This wouldn’t fully lock them in but it would be close. I think A&M is fabulous defensively but their offense is just unwatchable garbage, and I think it’s worth noting that TAMU has lost to the three fastest-paced offenses on their schedule (Vandy would be fourth). TAMU’s 2-3 this year when the opponent averages 14 seconds or less to their first shot attempt (Vandy averages 13.8).
#22 Ole Miss at #2 Auburn (-13), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Looking for rationale for Auburn’s last two lazy performances? Here ya go: 10-46 from 3 after a season of shooting almost 37% from deep. I don’t feel it’s any deeper than that, but I’ll continue to note that Auburn’s rim FG% gap pre- and post-Broome injury has fallen immensely: +14.8% FG% at the rim before, -1.1% FG% after. Broome has gone from 59.7% FG% at the rim to 50.7% in the last month.
NCAAW: #41 Washington at #31 Minnesota (-6.5), 8 PM ET, BTN+. Last 10 games: #34 Washington, #42 Minnesota. But I think the Gophers have just been horrifically unlucky: -7.3% (!) on 3PT (after being +6% 3PT the first 18 games). At home they’ve been the 20th-best team in the sport.
#17 Kentucky (-2) at #49 Oklahoma, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Sean Vinsel, law student and former (eternal?) director of Hoops Insight, noted that my Creighton piece from last week unintentionally illustrated the problems with Kentucky’s own drop coverage: a lot of block attempts but really poor rim protection. This actually holds up really well statistically, where UK has the second-worst 2PT% allowed of the 58 teams with a 12% or higher Block%. When your contemporaries are FIU and Idaho State, you might need to figure some things out. FWIW none of Pope’s previous teams had this problem, so it’s probably personnel and not philosophy.
#39 Texas at #36 Arkansas (-5), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. It’s not my job to do it, but the national media should really be talking up this Arkansas defense; it is one of the 10 best in the sport at this moment. This is also our Anxiety Game of the Week, by the way; both teams genuinely need a win to feel comfortable about making the Tournament, and a loss makes the NIT more likely than not.
#41 Utah State at #48 Boise State (-3), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. I’m a sucker for any and all important Mountain West affairs, and this is a really important one for Boise State. The Broncs move to a true 50/50 to make the field of 68 with a win here, and a loss really doesn’t harm Utah State much at all. Over the last 10 games Boise has been the very best defensive rebounding unit in America, which is quite critical against a USU squad that has dominated everything interior this year.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #83 Davidson at #39 Richmond (-11.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Again: three-bid A10. You want Richmond to win this game.
NCAAW: #119 Buffalo at #135 Toledo (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Ball State will win the MAC regular season title, but this is for second place in all likelihood. Toledo plays a very upset-friendly style of hoop.
#224 Queens at #116 North Alabama (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Very simple for North Alabama: go 2-0 and you clinch at least a share of the ASUN title. One slip-up for Lipscomb and it’s yours outright.
D2: #81 Carson-Newman at #7 Lincoln Memorial (-14), 7:30 PM ET, Flo Hoops. We won’t cover Carson-Newman much in the D2 grab-bag, but LMU and Josh Schertz understudy Jeremiah Samarrippas deserve major attention. They have a top-25 offense and defense and take just 7% of their shots from midrange.
#16 St. John’s (-6) at #71 Butler, 9 PM ET, CBSSN. St. John’s clinches at least a share of the Big East title with a win.
#26 BYU (-3) at #62 Arizona State, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Well, you think you know a league, and then it seems you do not. Houston, Texas Tech, and Arizona will all get top-four spots in the Big 12 Tournament. Iowa State is 85% likely to get the fourth. However, with a win here, BYU (!) emerges with a 46% shot to get that fourth-place spot instead. All it’ll take is one unexpected ISU slip-up somewhere.
#33 Ohio State (-1) at #58 USC, 10:30 PM ET, BTN. Ohio State…oh boy. 71% to make the field with a win. 22% to make it with a loss. I’m unaware of any one game that means more to one of the two teams this week.
#63 San Francisco at #80 Oregon State (-2), 11 PM ET, CBSSN. Not really important in any way, but USF’s bizarre opponent 3PT% dump-fest continues, as they’ve allowed a 22.2% hit rate from deep in conference play. Either Chris Gerlufsen will be the most popular coach at offseason clinics this summer or San Fran is about to experience some horrendous regression to the mean.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 27
A GAMES
NCAAW: #12 Tennessee at #17 Kentucky (-1.5), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. The ‘rule’, as best as I can follow it, is one A Game per time slot. Otherwise, the A Game concept doesn’t really make much sense. That’s why UT/UK is here and UNC/Duke in the next section; it is what it is. I find this game electrifying as a concept. Kentucky is good but not great at transition denial, and their philosophy of handling as much as possible 1-on-1 will be stressed majorly by Tennessee’s guards. On the other end, a Tennessee team without a truly great post defender will be stressed majorly by Teonni Key and Clara Strack, two excellent post scorers. Should be lots of fun.
NCAAW: #2 South Carolina (-6.5) at #10 Ole Miss, 9 PM ET, ESPN. Cracks are showing somewhat in the South Carolina armor. This is Dawn Staley’s worst rebounding team in several years (though still excellent), and the lack of a true go-to option offensively (the closest being freshman Joyce Edwards) has hamstrung them at times against high-end competition. Still, Staley is 9-0 against Coach Yo, and only two of the games (64-57 in 2023, 61-51 in 2022) have been within 14 points.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #13 North Carolina at #7 Duke (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN. For the UNC MBB fans disappointed by the men’s version of the rivalry, might I suggest the women’s version? The margins of the last six games, in order: 5, 4, 4, 8 (OT), 4, and 7 (OT). The problem: the winner hasn’t touched 70 points since 2022, and the first matchup saw UNC win 53-46…in overtime. This is likely to be close but ugly.
NCAAW: #23 Maryland at #30 Indiana (-1), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Last 10 games: #31 Maryland, #18 Indiana. Maryland has completely cratered on defense while Indiana’s defense has turned their season around thanks to excellent perimeter defense. I’m interested to see at what point, if at all, a Maryland team that looked great until mid-January gets off the mat.
D2: #14 Lubbock Christian at #20 Midwestern State (TX) (-0.5), 8:30 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Both of these teams will get more coverage in the D2 grab-bag. Lubbock is led by an elite offense that plays similarly to an Iowa (high eFG%, tremendous TO%, low OREB%/FT Rate), while Midwestern State is more well-rounded but struggles heavily on the boards.
NCAAW: #14 LSU at #15 Alabama (-2), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. This is probably objectively a better game than SoCar/OM but doesn’t hold the same importance or star power for me. LSU feels like a computer tricker but in the sense that they’re likely better than 14th claims. They’re just so, so good on the offensive boards and in producing an overwhelming amount of shot volume. I feel it’s a brutal matchup for an Alabama squad that’s average at rebounding and is riding an extraordinary run of 3PT% luck (+17%!!! last 10 games).
NCAAW: #27 Georgia Tech (PK) at #37 California, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. As dead even as it can get. Georgia Tech has crash-landed back to earth and is playing more like a bubble team these days, while Cal is producing a ton of excellent interior looks despite an awful turnover margin. Interesting game.
#35 UC San Diego (-8) at #108 CSU Northridge, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. This is your best men’s game of the night and it’s a reminder of my personal campaign: Coach of the Year Eric Olen. I understand your personal desire to give it to any number of coaches in power conferences: Pat Kelsey, Dennis Gates, Todd Golden, even Bruce Pearl. But Olen has the 35th-ranked team in the sport with, charitably, a basketball budget in the 200s nationally. That’s more impressive to me than Kelsey, who I like a lot, being given a top-20 budget and producing top-20 results.
C GAMES
#61 North Texas (-2) at #106 Florida Atlantic, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. With a North Texas win and a Memphis loss at UAB on Sunday, North Texas and Memphis would both be >70% to split the AAC title. I am rooting for this because it would be funny.
#119 Chattanooga at #121 UNC Greensboro (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Really simple game. Chattanooga wins the SoCon regular season title by winning here; they would share it with UNCG if they lose, in all likelihood.
#126 UNC Wilmington (-1) at #188 Campbell, 7 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Towson has won this league, but Campbell can still play their way into a top-four CAA slot with a win here and some help elsewhere.
#112 Jacksonville State at #68 Liberty (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Again, very simple game: the winner functionally clinches (aka, goes >95%) a share of the CUSA title.
#202 William and Mary at #157 Towson (-5), 7 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Have to admit I’m kinda rooting against Towson in the CAA Tournament. Their top five comps all lost their Round of 64 game by an average of 16.6 points. Not really an NCAAT-friendly style. (The same goes for W&M, but I have zero qualms about giving a team their first bid ever.)
#206 Southeast Missouri at #232 SIU Edwardsville (-2), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. SEMO has clinched a share of the OVC title and is the very likely 1 seed, but they clinch an outright title by winning this game.
#77 Rutgers at #23 Michigan (-12), 9 PM ET, Peacock. I guess this is one of your last chances to see Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper at Rutgers.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 28
A GAME
NCAAW: #44 Princeton at #43 Harvard (-2.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Ivy League Roulette continues with the latest and greatest their WBB half has to offer. I think this league rocks and this matchup rocks, and it would be a true shame if one of these two misses the Tournament. For multi-bid purposes, you probably need Princeton to win this game to shore up their resume a bit.
B GAMES
#28 UCLA at #13 Purdue (-5), 8 PM ET, FOX. Am I a bad person if I still can’t find myself being out on Purdue despite some glaring signs I should be? This list of comparisons is astonishingly good for a future 5 seed.
Meanwhile, I continue to think the same of UCLA as I have for a month now. Against the average 11 seed in March, they probably win a game seven out of ten times. The three they wouldn’t win would be due to two simple reasons: getting out-mathed by way of defaulting to 22 mid-range jumpers in a game and/or losing the rebounding battle because they don’t have the standard size of a Cronin team.
#133 Kent State at #99 Akron (-5), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. This rivalry is always a real war on and off the court, so I’m looking forward to it. Akron has easily been the best MAC team in conference play, but Kent is the only team in the conference with interior protection capable of standing up to Akron for 40 minutes. I’m aware Akron lost this weekend but they still shot 54% on twos (22% on threes), and their win over Kent in January saw them post their second-lowest 2PT% of the MAC season.
C GAMES
#66 Yale (-9) at #207 Dartmouth, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. We do the goofy “I wouldn’t want to face THIS team in March” thing literally every year with 25 different teams, but yeah, I wouldn’t want to draw Yale in March if I’m a 5 seed. Scary list of similar teams here, with three of those five R64 wins being blowouts.
NCAAW: #155 Arkansas State at #126 Troy (-6.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. James Madison has run away with the conference title, but this is for second place, which is meaningful. If you haven’t seen Troy play yet, they are fast and fun. Sometimes real.
#146 Appalachian State at #186 Marshall (-1), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I needed a third game to finish out the section.