Week 16 Weekend Watchlist: I Have KenPom'd Myself Into a Tizzy
Being petty is *not* my favorite pastime, but alas
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
Lot of good stuff out and about this week…some of it my own work! We’re closing in on conference tournament week(s) and such, which is the real meat of the season, but these last couple of weeks before those really start up are great for narrative purposes. And boy, am I fighting some sort of fight on this following narrative: the KenPom Top X Offenses/Top X Defenses horse(stuff) that permeates college basketball Twitter.
That post is free, by the way, and it’s free for a reason: I need this horse(stuff) to stop. Eventually, we’re all going to arrive at the same conclusion: if you’re pretty good on the whole, you can probably win the NCAA Tournament. If you have an obvious flaw like a really crappy offense or defense, your odds are greatly diminished. I, you, and Cedric the Cat do not need umpteen goofy cutoffs to tell us which teams backfit supposedly flawless criteria that are greatly flawed.
More than that, though, I did find this humorous. I’ve held back on naming specific accounts as problematic for this, but there is one that seems pervasive enough to name: College Basketball Report. Whoever runs it is anonymous, which is totally fine. I like anonymity! But, look, I cannot help but find this extremely funny. Here is one image:
Prior to the publishing of my article on the 20th, you could find any number of posts about KenPom Fitting from these lads. Which, hey, get your engagement. Not my battle to fight. But when most of your posts are this:
Then February 20th comes around, and then it’s February 21st and oh out of nowhere here’s this:
All I’m saying is I’d like a little credit, you know? Then again, maybe I wouldn’t. I like anonymity.
To avoid this being wildly long, the games below will receive minimal blurbs. All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. Subscribe here people. Word-of-mouth really does work best, because I don’t advertise and don’t like the idea of doing so.
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24
Happy 20th anniversary to Twista/Kanye/Jamie Foxx’s “Slow Jamz” being the #1 song in America. How far we’ve fallen.
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#1 Houston (-3) at #14 Baylor, 12 PM ET, CBS. I think this is a tremendous battle between two polar opposites but I continue to be very worried about Houston away from home. 44% on twos (#325 nationally) is horrifying for a team with real hopes of winning a national title. You’re functionally playing like Super San Diego State.
FOUR STARS
The Cars’ debut album in 1978. I toyed with five stars here, too, but it’s probably a solid 8.5/10 record. How many artists in history have started their career off with a three-pack like this?
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #36 Villanova at #18 Creighton, 12 PM ET, FOX.
#119 Charleston at #148 Towson, 12 PM ET, CBSSN. CAA race at stake here. Charleston’s got a one-game lead but Towson can pull them back to the back with a W.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#8 Duke (-1) at #20 Wake Forest, 2 PM ET, ESPN. There is a FOUR point difference between Vegas and KenPom here, which goes to show you how much situational stuff is priced into things now. Don’t bet! Anyway, this is a pitch-perfect situational spot for a Wake team that’s missing one (1) signature win to get them into the NCAA Tournament.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #21 Baylor at #26 West Virginia, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. WVU has come so far this year, but they’ve fallen out of the Big 12 race. Still, these are two 5 seeds or so, which is exciting for March.
NCAAW: #31 Princeton at #46 Columbia, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Ivy League title race comes to a head here, as 10-0 plays at 9-1. Princeton sits at a 7 seed in Mark Schindler’s bracket watch for The Athletic, so I’d like Columbia to win for a two-bid Ivy.
#15 BYU (-3) at #72 Kansas State, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. I still like BYU but I’ve got real worries about them away from home, as emphasized by our friend Matthew Winick. They haven’t had a single 40%+ night from 3 on the road yet, which is a huge problem for a team entirely built around shooting. Would be a great time to have one here.
#51 Iowa at #12 Illinois (-10), 2:15 PM ET, BTN. Fun fact: from New Year’s Day to present, Iowa ranks #8 in offense and Illinois #2. Another fun fact: Iowa ranks #166 in defense and Illinois #112. This should be extremely fun but if you’re wondering why I remain highly skeptical of Illinois that’s why.
THREE STARS
#61 Washington at #4 Arizona (-14), 2 PM ET, CBS. Classic Angry Arizona spot here.
#42 Cincinnati at #32 TCU (-4), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the Bubble Battle of the day for me. In today’s Bracket Matrix, Cincy is the fifth team out, while TCU barely sits on the 8 line and still doesn’t have too lovely of a resume. Both teams really need this win, and the first matchup went to OT with both teams beating the snot out of one another for 45 minutes. Maybe this should be four stars.
#55 South Carolina at #70 Ole Miss (-2), 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Two good resumes, two horrid metrics teams. I’m openly rooting for South Carolina here for, uh, reasons.
4-6 PM ET
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEKEND
#6 Alabama (-2) at #23 Kentucky, 4 PM ET, CBS. Well, for one, the projected score is 92-90. I’m unsure why that alone wouldn’t be a sell! But if it somehow isn’t, these are probably the two best offensive backcourts in the SEC (therefore, two of the very best in the nation) taking on two atrocious defensive units. One thing here of note is that Alabama’s road losses have come in games where they largely got wrecked down low. UK doesn’t really do that but seeing as Tre Mitchell is likely to play here, it could be a change of pace. Plus, Kentucky is fully in Cal’s Last Stand mode where he’s chastising the media and spite-winning games.
FIVE STARS
#78 UC Irvine at #105 UC San Diego (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Big West Championship Game here. This is UCSD’s real title game, as they are in their final year of ineligibility for March due to the D2 → D1 transition.
FOUR STARS
#10 North Carolina (-4) at #67 Virginia, 4 PM ET, ESPN. Situationally-priced game for a Virginia team that badly needs it and a UNC team that really only needs it to stay in the hunt for a 1 seed.
#25 Texas Tech (-2) at #73 UCF, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. UCF’s hot streak has cooled, as they now sit 4-9 in Big 12 play. But this is a nice get-right spot at home against a TTU roster with a 2-5 road record.
THREE STARS
#36 Oklahoma (-4) at #100 Oklahoma State, 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Only on here because it seems like it may be the final game of the rivalry. Bummer.
#93 George Mason at #101 Loyola Chicago (-2), 4:30 PM ET, USA Network. Huge A-10 game here. Loyola is…good?!?
#50 Virginia Tech at #59 Pittsburgh (-3), 5:30 PM ET, The CW.
6-8 PM ET
FIVE STARS
An Idiot Abroad.
FOUR STARS
#33 Texas at #17 Kansas (-5), 6 PM ET, ESPN. World’s Most Annoying Team to Figure Out Kansas has still elected to play games with four good players in a sport that requires five, so I’m not sure how this goes. But I remain even less convinced of Texas, who’s alternated wins and losses for weeks and simply appears like a lesser team in this game.
#47 Drake (-4) at #123 Northern Iowa, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. I don’t think this is really for anything MVC-wise, but a win here allows Drake to continue fighting for the MVC regular season title and a win for UNI gives them a good shot at a MVC Tournament double-bye.
THREE STARS
#5 Auburn (-8) at #82 Georgia, 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Auburn’s had a week off to recuperate after their rough home loss to Kentucky; I think they’ll come out pretty motivated here. Key piece here is Chad Baker-Mazara as he’ll likely be the Jaylin Williams replacement.
#185 Georgetown (-3) at #306 DePaul, 6 PM ET, CBSSN. The Worst Game in Human History.
#289 Grambling State at #225 Southern (-7), 6:30 PM ET. SWAC title at stake here.
#171 Bryant at #104 Vermont (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. America East title at stake here.
8-10 PM ET
FIVE STARS
The 2002-2004ish stretch of Ricky Gervais’s radio show with Karl Pilkington and Stephen Merchant. This is a very specific thing, but it’s a nice window into what ideal comedic chemistry looks like. A shame that Ricky Gervais is, you know, 2024 Ricky Gervais.
FOUR STARS
#28 Colorado State (-2) at #83 UNLV, 8 PM ET, CBSSN. I do not love this spot for Colorado State, who has to tangle with a UNLV team that nearly beat them at home and who figures to possess a serious shot volume advantage. A CSU win likely rides on simply out-shooting UNLV, which is always possible but reinforces my March fears for them.
#52 Texas A&M at #7 Tennessee (-11), 8 PM ET, ESPN. This is either a horrid or perfect situational spot for Tennessee depending on how you look at it. A&M has lost three straight, which means this is either the classic Bubble Team Must-Win Game (which reinforces the question of “why are they a bubble team to begin with”) or the Better Team Finalizes Worse Team’s Season Game.
#56 Butler at #60 Seton Hall (-3), 8:30 PM ET, FS2. This is another Bubble Battle, as these are the literal last teams in the field as I type. The problem is that it doesn’t really lock up a bid for either; it just avoids a loss. Therefore: FS2.
#48 Utah at #37 Colorado (-4), 9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Bubble Battle but worse, sadly. Utah and Colorado both sit just outside the field, which is a shame because I really like watching both teams.
THREE STARS
#31 Villanova at #3 UConn (-10), 8 PM ET, FOX. Yeah, sure, #31 at #3. But the second UConn lost to Creighton I immediately realized this would be a 20+ point UConn blowout as a revenge game against a Villanova team that cannot win a big game to save its life. No thanks.
#140 Eastern Washington (-1) at #184 Northern Colorado, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Big Sky regular season championship game.
LATE
FIVE STARS
Sleeping.
FOUR STARS
Still being awake.
THREE STARS
#112 Santa Clara at #19 Gonzaga (-13), 10 PM ET, ESPN2. All this really does is either cement Gonzaga as the WCC #2 or open the door for San Francisco.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 25
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #6 LSU (-4.5) at #29 Tennessee, 12 PM ET, ESPN. Reverend Mark, if you’re reading this, a little 11:45 AM ET dismissal tomorrow would be appreciated. I’m kidding, but this is a season-defining game for Tennessee. Win, and you are firmly in the field, no questions asked. You also work your way into a tie with LSU in the SEC standings. Lose, and I think you know what’s coming.
FOUR STARS
#11 Creighton (-2) at #45 St. John’s, 12 PM ET, CBS. Speaking of must-wins, this is a non-negotiable must-win for St. John’s and in a pretty rough situational spot for Creighton, coming off an emotional upset of the AP #1 team on Tuesday night. If SJU can’t get this one, it’s fully over.
#41 SMU (-3) at #98 South Florida, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. I think this is the best AAC team taking on the conference-leading AAC team, so it’s obviously worth keeping an eye on, even in a diminished AAC. I presented this theory to Chase Thomas on his podcast this week: what makes nü-AAC so bad in football is precisely what makes it intriguing in basketball. There are no great, standout teams, but there’s a pack of 4-6 teams that are all pretty similar. Any of them could win the conference tournament, which makes it fascinating for Selection Sunday purposes.
ONE STAR
#53 Maryland at #87 Rutgers (-1), 12 PM ET, BTN. This is on here as a warning: if you put this game on television even for a second, a demon will come out of your screen and haunt your family for the following five generations. Make wise choices.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #9 Utah (-0.5) at #16 USC, 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. I’ve spilled so many letters and words on the constant watchability of Utah WBB over the last two years that I feel bad for ignoring USC a little. JuJu Watkins is the pre-eminent non-Caitlin bucket-getter in all of basketball right now.
FOUR STARS
#34 Florida Atlantic (-2) at #81 Memphis, 2 PM ET, ESPN. The official Better In January Game of the Season.
NCAAW: #25 Maryland at #11 Ohio State (-7.5), 2 PM ET, BTN. Maryland feels overrated by HHS but I’ll let it slide; they gave OSU a lot of problems in the first matchup. OSU basically needs to not blow their home games to eventually win the Big Ten, which is a huge accomplishment.
NCAAW: #32 North Carolina at #12 Virginia Tech (-6.5), 2 PM ET, ACC Network. We are careening directly for my personal WBB Game of the Year: Virginia Tech at Notre Dame on Thursday, February 29. Can’t wait. So, uh, don’t lose this one, Hokies.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #20 Kansas State (-1.5) at #51 Kansas, 2 PM ET, ESPN2.
NCAAW: #19 Oregon State (-5.5) at #69 Washington, 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Two tough spots for very good road teams taking on home teams that basically have to win to have any hope for a Tournament bid.
#132 Youngstown State (-2) at #210 Green Bay, 3 PM ET, ESPN+.
#162 Wright State at #122 Oakland (-6), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Bottom two are Horizon League battles for the 1 seed who will eventually lose to the 4 seed in the conference tournament.
4-LATE PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #14 NC State (-2.5) at #17 Duke, 5:30 PM ET, ACC Network. Major game for ACC purposes and seeding purposes, too. NC State has to win this to somewhat keep touch for the ACC title race, which looks like it’s Virginia Tech’s to lose. Meanwhile, Duke is sitting on the 6 line in Mark Schindler’s bracket watch, but they feel better than a 6 seed. Then again, as we’ve seen on the men’s side, feels =/= resume.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #39 Mississippi State at #28 Alabama (-3.5), 5 PM ET, SEC Network. A State win likely fully locks them into the NCAA Tournament field, but we still aren’t giving Alabama enough love this year. 20 wins for the first time in forever and very competitive in the SEC race!
#49 Xavier at #13 Marquette (-9), 5 PM ET, FS1.
#63 Minnesota at #38 Nebraska (-6), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Two teams I love to watch must play each other, which always hurts my soul a little, but hey. I don’t think Nebraska is a March lock by any means, but a great way to make yourself a March lock is to avoid any missteps. Here’s a potential pothole that if they get past will help them move closer to lock status.
THREE STARS
#68 Ohio State at #16 Michigan State (-9), 4 PM ET, CBS. I guess. OSU is 4-8 away from home this year, has a negative turnover margin, bleeds open threes, and is playing out the string. Meanwhile, Michigan State is also the I Love Being Annoying meme. There’s a NASCAR race on at this same time that can give you more enjoyment.