Week 16 Weekend Watchlist: The Next-to-Last Normal One
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NEWS! The newsletter is $20/year for the month of March. Happy March and such. Details below.
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
Three items covered this week…first, a newsletter on Division 2 basketball and an incoming Tournament that has a chance at featuring some highly intriguing winners:
Secondly, after some…inspiration, I guess, I went hunting to figure out what’s up with the sudden rise in cylinder fouls awarded via video review. Long story short: after none awarded in the first three months of the season, I found evidence of at least six over the last four weeks, including four in a 10-day span.
Lastly, and most fun, was an exploration of what mid-majors/one-bid league teams fit March Madness best. Watch out for VCU.
But also, and most important of all, the site is now $20 for a year through March 31. You can also sign up for Burner Ball here to get a link to a $14/year subscription for my newsletter.
On with the show.
SATURDAY, MARCH 1
THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEKEND
#6 Alabama at #5 Tennessee (-5), 4 PM ET, ESPN. Considering we have Literally AP #1 playing at Rupp Arena earlier in the day and on big ABC versus cable, this is probably a mild upset for the top pick. But if I’m being honest with myself, this game means more, is likely to be the better game start-to-finish, and (sorry!) will have the better home crowd. Blame the blue hairs and/or blue suits.
Anyway, the Nate Oats/Rick Barnes ‘rivalry’ started out in one direction and has rapidly careened towards another. After a false start in ‘19-20 (featuring a home loss to a bad Tennessee team), Oats won three straight over the Vols in games that got progressively more frustrating to Tennessee fans. Then, in ‘22-23, the script flipped; Tennessee has now beaten Alabama three consecutive times, including a road win last year that basically clinched the program’s first outright SEC title in 16 years.
This one won’t mean anything for SEC purposes (beyond Tennessee likely locking in a double-bye with a win) but means a ton for the national picture, where Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida are in a three-way battle for the final 1 seed. This is also fascinating to me as a philosophical rubber match. New Kid on the Block Oats and (respectfully) Sport Elder Barnes simply feel like a classic coaching matchup, and it was Barnes who had the upper hand last year. Against Tennessee, the Vols figured they could handle Alabama’s penetration 1-on-1 and did so successfully; Alabama generated about one kickout three to every 2.5 rim attacks last year.
Alabama’s defense still allows very little at the rim and funnels a lot to the midrange, which guys like Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey are fine with, but does make me wary a bit of the math advantage Oats and crew are likely to generate. I think this game comes down to Alabama’s fatal flaw, which are turnovers. Against top-100 competition, Alabama is a stunning -4.4 per 100 possessions in turnover margin. Tennessee has ball security issues of their own, but in a game where Tennessee’s defense is involved - and at home where they frankly enjoy a pretty huge foul advantage most nights - it could be the deciding factor in a Vols W.
A GAMES
#2 Auburn (-5) at #15 Kentucky, 1 PM ET, ABC. This was the near top pick for the weekend, but I made a last minute call to elevate the Tennessee game because it’s honestly more interesting than this is. Auburn apparently has not won at Rupp Arena since 1988 (Rick Barnes rollerskating backwards and saying “it’s not that hard”), which adds some extra motivation on their end. Not like any team coached by Bruce Pearl ever needs more motivation, as he’s a master of that, but hey.
I’m not going to bother with much on the Kentucky defensive end because their drop coverage is simply so, so bad against teams that can actually get to the rim, but offensively there’s some promise. Auburn wants to funnel everything to the paint and midrange to get their frontcourt involved. This is great in theory when you’ve got excellent rim protectors like Broome and Cardwell, but simultaneously, Auburn’s ran a bit hot from three (27% allowed in SEC play) and against an Auburn defense that will allow pull-up jumpers and some amount of kickout threes, all it takes is one hot Kentucky shooting night to turn this matchup on its head. Then again, in the five games UK’s played against top-10 offenses, they’ve allowed 91.8 PPG. Probably gotta score 95+ to win.
#7 Texas Tech at #20 Kansas (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN. If you’re a spot chaser, which I gather is like storm chasing, this is your Mega Spot of the Week. Texas Tech emptied the tank in a home game sans two starters against Houston and came up short. While they’ve had a few days of rest, this is a tough road trip against a Kansas team that is trying like hell to get off of the 5/6 line and back into protected seed territory. This is functionally just JT Toppin versus Hunter Dickinson, and given how Kansas has enjoyed a +5 foul advantage at home over the last four years, per KenPom…
#11 Missouri (-3) at #39 Vanderbilt, 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Sue me. Fun game. This is fire versus fire, two teams I really love watching play basketball, and it’s about as deep as my analysis can go. I am not convinced that either team can really stop the other in transition, so it’s then about who can somewhat slow the other down in half-court. I actually trust Vandy a little more on this end, particularly at home, than I do Mizzou. Their style of ball can unlock the things Mizzou really doesn’t do well, such as handling straight-line drives to the rim, and as usual I have to mention that Missouri remains a pretty middling rebounding team.
NCAAW: #6 USC at #5 UCLA (-4.5), 9 PM ET, FOX. Killer game here, folks. This is for the Big Ten title, outright. It should be fierce, particularly after USC handed UCLA their first loss of the year at home earlier in February. USC is all too happy to funnel everything off the three-point line, which generally leads me to think UCLA could potentially explode here thanks to a (theoretical) heavy advantage on the interior…yet I also thought this about the first game and it just didn’t happen.
B GAMES
#16 Maryland (-6) at #66 Penn State, 12 PM ET, BTN. While nothing really matters here, there are two storylines worth caring about: if Maryland can get off the mat after a truly deflating loss to Michigan State, and if Penn State can find enough wins to make the Big Ten Tournament (currently projected for 17th). Maryland actually lost to PSU last year and went 0-2 ATS, but considering how vastly different both teams are compared to last year it doesn’t feel terribly useful. More interested in how/if Penn State’s woeful rim protection can do much of anything to slow down the Terps.
NCAAW: #95 Purdue Fort Wayne at #80 Green Bay (-4), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Here you go: 18-1 at 18-1 for the Horizon League title. That’s worthy of elevating a tier, particularly when Green Bay has won 18 straight games.
NCAAW: #35 Minnesota at #23 Michigan State (-6), 2 PM ET, BTN+. Little is truly meaningful here, but Minnesota badly needs this to have any sort of confidence heading into the B1G Tournament that they’re NCAAT-bound. 8-10 B1G with the 298th-ranked non-con slate is a really hard sell.
NCAAW: #39 Richmond (-3.5) at #60 Saint Joseph’s, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Richmond is probably in the field no matter how the rest of the year goes, most likely as a 10 seed, so they don’t have to have this one. But my policy for Three-Bid A10, which sadly isn’t going to happen, is for Richmond (and George Mason) to pile up regular season wins so a third team can step in and win the conference tournament. We may only get a two-bid A10, which would still be just the second time in the last seven years.
#48 Oklahoma at #25 Ole Miss (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. Hey guy. Were you aware that Ole Miss is really, really bad at rebounding a basketball? Like, Team Full of Point Guards bad? Since SEC play started, they’ve gotten back just 21.2% of their missed shots, good for ninth-worst in all of D1. It would be the lowest of any SEC team since 2019-20 Arkansas and the second-worst in conference history. This hasn’t stopped them from tracking as a reasonably good team but the number of teams that make it to March with rebounding as awful as theirs, let alone do anything with it, is functionally zilch. The team they’re most similar to is 2009-10 Richmond, who lost in the Round of 64.
#50 Utah State at #62 Colorado State (-1), 4 PM ET, FS1. For one, both of these teams have shot the cover off the ball from deep over the last two months: USU 39.7%, CSU 38.7%. For another, they’ve both played like top-50 teams. CSU has no serious at-large shot that I can see, but using games since NYD this spread should be more like CSU -3 or -3.5. There’s not a huge home-court bump statistically for CSU like there is for New Mexico/USU/Boise, FWIW.
#33 Creighton at #54 Xavier (-1), 4:30 PM ET, FOX. There is a huge bump for Road Creighton, though. McDermott and crew are 21-11 ATS on the road over the last three seasons, and McDermott has the edge in this matchup 4-2. Interestingly, Xavier has been the rare offense that routinely craps on the KalkDrop: four outings of 1.15 PPP or better (though two flops). It’s been their defense that’s lost them games, which feels right because the Xavier system packs it in at the expense of giving up a lot of off-ball screens and handoffs, Creighton’s bread and butter.
#38 Georgia at #41 Texas (-3), 8 PM ET, ESPN2. ANXIETY GAME OF THE WEEKEND! Georgia’s status is heavily improved after their defeat of Florida, and even a loss still has them at 72% or so to make the field, per Torvik, but they’re far from a lock. Texas is truly teetering on the edge and has been horrific on defense for a month, fouling at one of the highest rates in the nation in February. This feels like a good matchup for Texas in that they’re at their worst against creative ball-handlers, which isn’t really what UGA has. Could be a big one for Rodney Terry, or alternately, a win that kinda sorta locks UGA in.
#21 Texas A&M at #4 Florida (-10), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. This one matters more for national seeding than regional, as Florida has functionally locked up an SEC double-bye and TAMU is probably headed for a 5 or 6 seed in the SECT. But nationally, this is a seed line win for TAMU in that it would probably lock them in as a 1-4 seed on Selection Sunday. It would also drop Florida off the 1 line in a way that would be tough to recover from.
#12 Arizona at #13 Iowa State (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Only one game per time slot gets A Game treatment, which means this gets bumped down a tad. This is still obviously very, very good. The national narrative is that Iowa State is collapsing inward a bit, and certainly I’m in no rush to rally behind the team with the 344th-best offensive TO% in February, but Iowa State should be at their healthiest in a few weeks here. The defensive structure is also very much in the archetype that’s caused Arizona problems before.
#49 West Virginia at #27 BYU (-8), 10 PM ET, ESPN2. Surprisingly little at stake here. I guess WVU could functionally lock in a Tournament bid with a win but BYU can/would say the same. WVU cannot score much at all these days despite Javon Small’s best efforts, and their drop coverage seems like a nightmare matchup for WVU against a team that’s excellent at jump shooting.
#9 Gonzaga (-7) at #61 San Francisco, 11 PM ET, ESPN. This was the other Anxiety Game of the Week. This is the final day of WCC play, and for once, a Gonzaga game really means something. The winner here gets the 2 seed in the WCC Tournament, which means one fewer game they have to play. For Gonzaga I’d argue that doesn’t mean as much, but for USF it means a lot; getting an auto-bye to the semifinals is giant for the worse team. The home Gonzaga version of this game was an 88-77 win despite Gonzaga shooting 4-14 from three, and as covered prior, San Francisco’s absurd opponent 3PT% luck (22% since NYD) cannot last forever.
C GAMES
#37 UConn (-3) at #90 Providence, 12 PM ET, CBS. Kind of a lazy start to the day, but this could be fun because it’ll be a hostile crowd. UConn has nearly clinched a top-four spot in the Big East Tournament. A win here would pretty well do it.
#257 American at #261 Colgate (-2), 12 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Simple game: by winning, American does no worse than clinch a share of the Patriot League. If Holy Cross upsets Bucknell, they win the league outright. Moderately important because they haven’t won the league since 2009.
#36 Arkansas (-2) at #80 South Carolina, 1 PM ET, SEC Network. Very exciting news: most of the good work Arkansas has done for a month can be un-done with one wrong step here. I highly doubt it would be but I’ve seen weirder.
#171 Norfolk State at #201 South Carolina State (-2), 2 PM ET, streaming. South Carolina State (currently 8-3 MEAC) can move into a much better position to share the MEAC title with Norfolk (currently 10-1) with a win. If Norfolk wins, the race is over.
#204 Seton Hall at #14 St. John’s (-22), 2:15 PM ET, CBS. Okay, so St. John’s can win the outright title by winning this game. That’s good. More importantly: A TELEVISION NETWORK HAS BUILT IN A FIFTEEN MINUTE BUFFER INTO THEIR SCHEDULE. IN 2025. It’s possible!!!!!!! I have tears in my eyes.
NCAAW: #71 Drake at #84 Northern Iowa (-1), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. The MVC holds the somewhat unusual step of holding their WBB tournament after the men’s one, which means there are several machinations left in the fold, but at minimum this is for second place in a really good, tightly-packed league.
#77 LSU at #31 Mississippi State (-11), 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Mississippi State is a really good regression candidate to keep your eye on. In the month of February, they enjoyed a -12.1% 3PT% delta while pretty much equaling opponents from two. LSU does a good job taking/preventing threes but is horrendous on the boards, so to me it’s a clear get-right game for MSU. Unless it is not.
#110 Loyola Chicago at #114 Saint Louis (-4), 4 PM ET, CBSSN. Despite about a billion injuries Saint Louis winning this would throw the A10 top-four race into some chaos. VCU and George Mason are locks, but a SLU win gives all of Saint Joe’s, Loyola, Dayton, and SLU a >60% shot at a top four spot. There’s only two of them to give away.
#160 Purdue Fort Wayne at #169 Cleveland State (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Nothing to really play for here, but I like testing out my “is Cleveland State bad or unlucky” theory. Opponents shot 38% from 3 against them last month.
#53 Cincinnati at #3 Houston (-16), 4:30 PM ET, CBS. Sue me, dude. Sometimes I just want to sit down on a Saturday and watch Houston hold a team to 49.
NCAAW: #70 Missouri State at #50 Belmont (-6), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Meanwhile in the MVC, the league’s best all-around team, Belmont, has to win this game to feel good about getting a double-bye in the conference tournament. The MVC on the women’s side is much wilder than the men’s.
#223 Southern (-1) at #281 Bethune Cookman, 5:30 PM ET, streaming. Southern has pretty much wrapped up the SWAC 1 seed, but B-C can steal the 2 with a favorable finish, and that’s a cool thing. Since Reggie Theus took over in 2021, B-C has the best home ATS in the SWAC (24-14-1).
#52 Indiana (-3) at #97 Washington, 6 PM ET, Peacock. Boy, I can’t wait for an Indiana team no one likes watching to steal a First Four bid from UC San Diego.
#63 McNeese (-6) at #184 Lamar, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Nothing to play for; just a matchup of the Southland’s two best teams.
#26 Marquette (-6) at #83 Georgetown, 8 PM ET, Peacock. I’m not sure sites have fully adjusted for Marquette just not being very good at the moment. Since the New Year they’ve played like the 50th-best team in the sport. That’s a sample of 14 games. Georgetown isn’t any good, but Marquette’s shooting is a serious issue and the more accurate ‘spread’ on this would be something like Marquette -1.5 or -1.
#130 UC Santa Barbara at #107 CSU Northridge (-3), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Sneaky fun game. Since NYD, CSU Northridge has played like a top-100 team and is demolishing their opponents on the boards to the tune of +14 per 100 possessions. It’s like Diet Saint Mary’s.
#82 Oregon State at #19 Saint Mary’s (-10), 10 PM ET, CBSSN. Nothing at stake here except for one thing: can Saint Mary’s continue a now six-game streak of not giving up a single run of 9-0 or greater?
SUNDAY, MARCH 2
A GAMES
#8 Wisconsin at #10 Michigan State (-3), 1:30 PM ET, CBS. I’m not sure anyone would describe it as a rivalry, but over the last few years, this has possibly been the most even matchup in the Big Ten year-over-year. They’re 3-3 against each other since COVID, and this year, they’re nearly equal in every single metric. I have waited for a while for Wisconsin to finally look like I thought they would preseason (a 10 seed) and it just hasn’t happened. They’re clearly really good!
Here, it’s two better-than-you-think offenses against two more-susceptible-than-you-think defenses. Wisconsin’s goal is to generate a lot of catch-and-shoot threes, but they may not get off many of them here. However, the shot fake will be their best friend; MSU can really crash the perimeter hard, and one good shot fake may send the defender flying. On the other end, MSU wants to get downhill fast in transition off of missed shots. Wisconsin is…okay? I guess? at preventing transition play, but they aren’t a super-special unit in that regard. There’s potential for this to be really high-scoring and a lot of fun.
NCAAW: #11 Ohio State (-0.5) at #22 Maryland, 4:30 PM ET, FS1. I believe the winner gets the 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, which doesn’t make a huge difference in terms of opponents but I’m sure matters in some small way. Maryland has been in a defensive freefall for over a month now, but they carry one huge advantage here: the boards. Ohio State stopped chasing offensive boards almost entirely in B1G play in order to create a better transition defense. That’ll help a lot here against a Maryland unit that is much better earlier in the clock, but it could lead to Maryland running up the score in the shot volume department.
NCAAW: #9 TCU at #19 Baylor (PK), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. This is for the Big 12 title outright, features two teams playing their basketball of the season, and features one gigantic statistical outlier. Over the last 11 games, Baylor’s posted a +15% 3PT% delta, shooting 39% from deep on offense and allowing 24% on defense. I…do not think that lasts. If three-point regression finally hits here, it’s TCU’s title. If not, Baylor’s your champ. Kinda that simple to my eyes.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #24 Michigan at #25 Illinois (-2.5), 1:30 PM ET, BTN. Another game that’s not really for anything but is simply pretty fun. Illinois’s offense is built almost entirely out of downhill perimeter drives, which Michigan has stopped fairly well…but I’m rarely worried about the Michigan defense. It’s the offense that concerns, and a team built heavily on transition that struggles in half-court against an Illini group that stuffs transition quite well could be a rough matchup.
NCAAW: #14 Kentucky at #2 South Carolina (-13), 2 PM ET, ESPN. Kentucky was the first team this entire season to really ‘punk’ the Lady Vols, which was a highly impressive outing. They could actually have similar success here against a heavy drop defense that will allow Kentucky all the dribble jumpers they want, but variance will play a real factor, and a UK team that struggles to rebound against South Carolina of all teams seems rough.
#95 Northern Iowa at #94 Bradley (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. We’re so close to Arch Madness. Praise be. All this determines is the 2 seed in the MVC Tournament, but I posit the following: what if Northern Iowa actually wants the 3? The most likely 7 seed is Murray State, who Bradley swept…but who UNI lost to at home. Meanwhile the two 6 seed options are Illinois Chicago (swept by UNI, 1-1 vs. Bradley) and Illinois State (swept by UNI, 1-1 vs. Bradley). Potential goofiness at play here? I hope so.
NCAAW: #17 Alabama at #12 Oklahoma (-3.5), 2:30 PM ET, SEC Network. The SEC’s top four are already locked in so this is ‘for’ nothing at all, but since the calendar flipped to January, Alabama has ridden one of the craziest 3PT% runs I can remember. They’re +13% (!) in conference play from deep, and while that’s balanced somewhat by being +5% from two, that’s still obviously not something you’re gonna sustain forever.
#22 Illinois at #24 Michigan (-2), 3:45 PM ET, CBS. Again, I could kiss (on the cheek) the schedule-makers at CBS. A 15-minute buffer in a year where the average game is around 2:06, per KenPom. Thank you. Thank you so, so much. You get it. Anyway, I am genuinely hoping for Michigan to either lose this outright or win it by 7+ points so I do not have to hear another thing about how every single game is close. It’s objectively true but I need them to stop hogging all the close games. It’s also killing poor Brian Cook. Norovirus AND 97 straight coin-flip games!
NCAAW: #15 Ole Miss at #13 LSU (-3.5), 4 PM ET, SEC Network. Another one of these that’s ‘for’ nothing (Ole Miss is either the 7 or 8 in the conference tournament, which just means you play either South Carolina or Texas on Friday), but is still quite fun. The Ole Miss defense is the most interesting thing going in women’s basketball for me at the moment because of its extremes. It’s like the KalkDrop or maybe the Underwood Style of WBB: they do not help on drives, ever, and force the most midrange twos in the SEC by a mile. LSU is beyond happy to play into that, which to me either goes really well or really poorly for the Tigers.
NCAAW: #10 Kansas State (-4.5) at #33 Iowa State, 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Again, for nothing at all, but Kansas State really needs a win here to stop the bleeding. Since Ayoka Lee went out they’ve played like the #32 team in the nation and can no longer run up the massive shot volume edge they had with Lee. ISU should probably be favored outright here, frankly.
NCAAW: #7 Duke (-5.5) at #28 Florida State, 6 PM ET, ACC Network. Jeez, how about Florida State? Major hat tip! Two back-to-back road wins at Georgia Tech (impressive) and Notre Dame (WHAT) is as good of a two-game run as you could generate in college hoops. If they close it out with a home win over Duke, they may play themselves into a 4 seed after that looked borderline impossible two weeks ago.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #29 Louisville at #4 Notre Dame (-16.5), 12 PM ET, ESPN. Unlikely to be close, but after Notre Dame’s two consecutive stumbles, they have to win out to hold onto a share of the ACC title.
#199 Quinnipiac at #196 Merrimack (-2), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. If QPac goes 2-0 this weekend, they’re all but the regular season champions for the MAAC barring final week weirdness.
#173 Princeton at #159 Cornell (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPNU. Princeton has to - HAS TO - go 1-1 this weekend to make the Ivy League Tournament, I think.
NCAAW: #34 Mississippi State (-3) at #52 Auburn, 3 PM ET, SECN+. It’s a game that’s on. Auburn won’t sniff the NCAAT but they’re not a bad team at all and have experienced some rough, rough luck at the end of games this year.
NCAAW: #31 Georgia Tech (-4.5) at #54 Stanford, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Georgia Tech went from the top ACC challenger to the conference’s 8 seed and likely an 8 seed nationally. Rough fall.
#46 Memphis (-5) at #105 UAB, 4 PM ET, ESPN. I’ve had to explain to a couple of people why Memphis is so poorly-rated at KenPom and the like. Here is my explanation: Memphis’s resume suggests roughly the 20th-best team in the country or thereabouts. If they actually played like the 20th-best team in the country, they would have a scoring margin of about +11.7 per game against their schedule, per KenPom. Their actual scoring margin: +6.8. This year’s South Carolina.
NCAAW: #38 Oregon at #40 Washington (-1.5), 5 PM ET, BTN+. Oregon’s fine and in the field; Washington could actually edge into First Four talks by winning this game. Means a ton, actually…though I’m hesitant to back Washington after they’ve shot 44% from 3 out of nowhere over the last four games.
ONE TO PLAY US OUT!