Week 17 Watchlist: Dance a Little Longer
No bubbles poppin' just yet
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The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
This week’s Watchlist is a tribute to those who’ve gone before us…but more importantly, it’s to those still with us. Are you a team who was left for dead, perhaps by your own coach, but recently won a game over a top-15 team? Stay all night, stay a little longer. Maybe you’re Pitt, the forgotten Round of 32 team from last March who has played their way from a totally lost group onto the NCAA Tournament bubble! Dance all night, dance a little longer.
Everyone comes and goes, but these teams can be pretty firmly thought of as The Bubble. We’ll see how long they stay dancing; some will fall over from exhaustion, some will be shoved off the stage by a less-than-joyous bouncer. This list is from Bart Torvik’s Teamsheet Ranks, which combines his numbers with the Bracket Matrix and gives a very broad look at the bubble. As it stands, there’s 28 teams on it for 13 spots.
Remove the obvious non-starters - none of Xavier, Ohio State, UCF, or Kansas State are touching this field - and it’s 24 teams still standing for 13 bids.
Now, this being a stats blog, I could probably go for the “is this team getting in?” angle or the “here’s how they compare historically” angle. No thanks. Instead, this is purely based on vibes. Do I find them fun? Interesting? Strange? Peculiar? Frisky? And yes, I’m only allowing myself 13 Yes marks to fit the number of teams in the field. Do I Want This Team to Dance? 2024:
Gonzaga: Yes. #11 offense since Christmas.
Wake Forest: Yes. Top-15 team since Christmas, just don’t let them play a home game.
New Mexico: Yes. Because I wrote about them and I want to be right.
Mississippi State: No. They’re in and will be an 8 or 9 seed, but I’m not accepting my slop. Annoying offense.
Colorado: No. 0-4 versus Quad 1-A, got smoked by Arizona in the most perfect upset situation they could’ve asked for.
Florida Atlantic: Yes, but make them play in the First Four.
Villanova: No. Bad, annoying team.
Texas: No. Quarantine them and Michigan State.
Nebraska: YES. Do I need to say more?
Nevada: Yes. Mountain West Supremacy.
St. John’s: Yes. I’m not immune to a good narrative.
Cincinnati: No. It’s no offense to Wes Miller, who I like a lot, but it’s just not a fun team to watch right now.
Drake: Yes. Problem is that the only way we get a two-bid MVC is with Drake winning the conference title by two points over Indiana State, so maybe root for that?
Pittsburgh: No. Not really interesting one way or the other, sorry.
Virginia: No. I love my friends I’ve made in the UVA sphere but I’m not sure even they really love this team very much. It’s borderline unwatchable.
Northwestern: Yes. This isn’t that much different than UVA to me but one team has Boo Buie and the other doesn’t.
Utah: No. Soul-crushing to say this, but the team as currently constructed just isn’t very good given all their injuries. They’d likely do very little damage.
Providence: Yes because the Providence staff have always been very good to me. First Four with FAU.
Texas A&M: No. I mean, they really are a perfect First Four team, but as someone who covers a fellow SEC program I cannot imagine desiring to watch a single Texas A&M game the rest of the season. I despise their shot selection and offense overall.
Iowa: Yes. #9 offense, #162 defense since Christmas. I’m not doing this because I think they’d make an impact, I’m doing this because their First Four game would end with a score of 88-84.
Seton Hall: Yes. This is a case where I actually do think the HC is squeezing everything he can out of the lemon, and I’d like to see them get rewarded for it.
Butler: Yes. I’m a sucker at heart, and I’m a sucker for Thad Matta doing more than I thought he could. Let’s see them in the tourney.
Oregon: No. Not interesting.
Ole Miss: No. I staked my claim on this in December, I’m not budging, and I don’t like Chris Beard. Sue me.
Standard fare below. To avoid this being wildly long, the games below will receive minimal blurbs. All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. Subscribe here people. Word-of-mouth really does work best, because I don’t advertise and don’t like the idea of doing so.
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 26
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #16 Colorado at #10 UCLA (-5.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. We only have a short time left with the Pac-12 as currently constructed, so enjoy it while it lasts. This is the final-for-now meeting between two terrific rosters and a pair of coaches doing some great things at programs that have rarely seen such heights. The winner of this more or less locks up a double-bye for the Pac-12 Tournament starting next week. It’s also the final home game for UCLA legend Charisma Osborne, she of 2,185 career points with the Bruins.
FOUR STARS
#14 Baylor at #25 TCU (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPN. This is a fun game that matters pretty hugely to the Big 12 race. If the season ended today, these would be the 5 (TCU) and 6 (Baylor) seeds, meaning neither would be getting a Big 12 Conference Tournament double-bye. Playing as few games against difficult competition as you can probably matters for going far in such a tournament. The winner here stays in touch for the 3 or 4 seed; the loser is probably playing on Wednesday.
THREE STARS
#92 Miami at #8 North Carolina (-14), 7 PM ET, ESPN. The top 4 is largely decided in the ACC, as all of UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Wake Forest have a >89% chance of receiving a double bye, but if UNC wants to win the regular season title they can’t blow this one. Meanwhile, last year’s Final Four Miami is going to be the 12 seed in its conference tournament. Regression to the mean and such.
#66 McNeese State (-8) at #224 Lamar, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Most difficult McNeese game left on the schedule and the last thing really standing between them and a 28-3, 17-1 Southland season.
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 27
FIVE STARS
#17 Kentucky at #28 Mississippi State (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Well, we’re back to square one with Kentucky. The Wildcats beat a top-three SEC team by double digits on Saturday, which means everyone is back to pretending like the first three months of the season never happened and everything is magically fixed. Never mind that they gave up 95 points, of course. More importantly, if Kentucky wants the SEC Tournament 4-seed and a double-bye they have to win this game. It won’t be easy. State is 11-2 at home this year with wins over Tennessee and Auburn.
FOUR STARS
#18 BYU at #15 Kansas (-4), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This, like a few other games this week, is pretty huge for Big 12 Tournament purposes. BYU has only a 10% shot at a double-bye, but a win here would obviously elevate that pretty high. Kansas, meanwhile, sits at 68% to skip directly to the quarterfinals…which is probably not where they thought they’d be on November 1st. My question, as usual: can BYU find a fix to this massive shooting disparity from three on the road?
#35 Texas at #31 Texas Tech (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN. This is the final ‘real’ edition of this rivalry for a long time, which is a huge bummer. If Tech wants their future SEC pals to go out sad, a win here would just about cement Texas as playing in the 8/9 game on Wednesday in Kansas City on ESPN+.
#41 Nevada at #29 Colorado State (-5), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. In a week with a lot of swing-piece games for March, this is a big one. Per Torvik, a win puts Nevada at 91% to make the field of 68. Colorado State is a 7 seed on the Bracket Matrix at the moment, but a weekend loss to UNLV likely dropped them a seed line. They need a win here to increase their odds of wearing home uniforms in the NCAA Tournament.
THREE STARS
#54 Pittsburgh at #24 Clemson (-6), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. A must-win for both to keep their hopes alive for an ACC Tournament double-bye, but especially big for Pitt, who is quietly playing their way onto the bubble.
#22 Wisconsin (-5) at #106 Indiana, 7 PM ET, Peacock. The last week or two, it feels like the conversation around Mike Woodson has shifted from ‘if’ to ‘when’, or at least it has amongst the national media. The buzz (though mostly unfounded) that Ohio State is going for Dusty May seems like a thing that may force Indiana’s hand. The interesting thing that I have personally noticed is among the friends and acquaintances I have who are Indiana supporters. Most really don’t want to do a third coaching search in seven seasons.
To be honest, I’m not sure what you do or don’t do. Woodson has underachieved his preseason KenPom expectation in all three seasons, and if you haven’t at least had one achievement/overachievement year by year three, you’ll probably never have it. At the same time I’ve generally liked Woodson’s defenses. Is there a way you can keep him but hire an offensive coordinator? Possibly. Is there a way a 65-year-old coach is going to suddenly adopt a wholesale offensive change? Not likely.
#96 Loyola Chicago at #82 St. Bonaventure (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Massive game for Loyola, who needs this to continue their pursuit of an A-10 conference championship. The Bonnies need this, too, for their pursuit of a double-bye.
#97 Akron (-1) at #156 Ohio, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Lot of time left in the MAC season, but a road win here probably gives Akron a permanent leg up in the race for the title.
#47 Cincinnati at #1 Houston (-14), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Here’s how you know Houston should be the pollster #1: every single game of theirs will appear in this watchlist at least as a “just in case of loss” thing.
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 28
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#5 Auburn at #6 Tennessee (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Full preview of this one will be up on Wednesday. For now, all I can say: prepare for blood. This is a physical game incoming, one that should be pretty nasty.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #5 Texas (-6.5) at #32 Oklahoma, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This would be fun regardless of conference stakes, obviously, but a win here locks up the Big 12 regular season championship for OU for the second straight season. Jennie Baranczyk is one of the best coaches in America. Despite the lower rating for Oklahoma, both of these teams have very real Final Four aspirations and should.
FOUR STARS
#53 Providence at #13 Marquette (-9), 7 PM ET, FS1. A loaded 7 PM hour means this gets delegated to also-ran status, which is a shame. Providence has recovered nicely post-Bryce Hopkins and is in the field as it stands; a win here would surely lock up a spot for good. Marquette must win to stay the Big East 2 seed and to stay tangentially in the hunt for a 1 in the NCAAT.
NCAAW: #35 Iowa State at #21 Kansas State (-3.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. A double-bye battle! Iowa State needs this to stay alive for it; Kansas State needs this to lock a double-bye up. Should be a blast, but also worth noting KSU is 15-0 at home this year, so maybe not.
#37 Oklahoma at #11 Iowa State (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Since New Year’s, this is #47 Oklahoma at #6 Iowa State. OU’s offense has gone in the toilet and it’s resulted in them falling from a one-time 3 seed all the way to the 8 line as it stands.
#39 St. John’s at #58 Butler (-1), 8:30 PM ET, CBSSN. I don’t know if this is a bubble battle as much as it is a bubble eliminator. St. John’s at-large hopes are still alive after a huge win over Creighton, but Butler has fallen out of the field entirely into the First Four Out. A loss here may do them in.
#48 South Carolina at #57 Texas A&M (-2), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Speaking of huge losers, here’s Texas A&M, losers of four straight and a team that probably should not be in the NCAA Tournament. When do we get to have the Buzz Williams talk? It’s Year 5 and he’s delivered zero NCAA Tournament wins to go with one bid.
#7 Alabama (-7) at #74 Ole Miss, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. As it stands, Alabama has a very slim leg up on Tennessee in the SEC title race, but that can change in a hurry. As middling as Ole Miss has revealed themselves to be, it’s the same group that has beaten Florida and Mississippi State at home. They haven’t played a single close game against an elite-level team, though, so maybe this won’t be so exciting. You never know!
THREE STARS
#43 Northwestern at #44 Maryland (-3), 7 PM ET, BTN. No thanks.
NCAAW: #43 Michigan at #11 Ohio State (-10.5), 7 PM ET, Peacock. A win here cements Ohio State as your 2023-24 Big Ten Champs, their first useful win over Michigan in any sport post-COVID.
#132 Furman at #124 Western Carolina (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. This doesn’t do much aside from determining the 4 seed in the SoCon Tournament, but it’s a fun game.
#105 Southern Illinois at #71 Bradley (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This also does not do a ton, as Bradley and SIU are both very likely to be double-bye teams in Arch Madness, but a win here probably means you avoid Indiana State until the title game.
#107 California at #30 Colorado (-11), 8 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Everyone gave up on Mark Madsen and the boys after a truly horrid non-conference outing. Guess what? 9-8 in the Pac-12, with an outside shot at a conference tournament double-bye. Colorado must win this to get a double-bye themselves.
#78 Louisiana Tech (-2) at #144 Western Kentucky, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Louisiana Tech is suddenly in a battle with Sam Houston for the CUSA title, which seemed very unlikely until a couple weeks ago. They’ve got to fend off WKU, who has gotten better and better and is 12-1 at home.
#64 Minnesota at #10 Illinois (-11), 9 PM ET, BTN. Since NYD, Illinois ranks 111th in defensive efficiency, per Torvik. This is despite allowing the very lowest 3PT attempt rate in basketball, which to me means you’re getting demolished inside the perimeter.
#56 Seton Hall at #12 Creighton (-9), 9 PM ET, FS1. Speaking of arbitrary dating, Seton Hall is a top-25 team since 2024 began. Shaheen Holloway: good? Good.
NCAAW: #4 Iowa (-13.5) at #61 Minnesota, 9 PM ET, Peacock. Caitlin time.
#4 Arizona (-13) at #118 Arizona State, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Final version of this rivalry as a Pac-12 game, but mostly you’re watching to see if Arizona blows it.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 29
Happy Leap Day! Happy birthday to the lady named Rebekah I knew in high school who was born on February 29th. Enjoy your 8th birthday or thereabouts.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #12 Virginia Tech at #13 Notre Dame (-4.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is my favorite non-Tennessee game of the week. I would argue for both Tech’s Elizabeth Kitley (23.3 PPG, 11.6 RPG) and Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo (23.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.5 APG, 4.9 SPG) as two of the top five players in the sport this year. Very rarely do you get to see two players like that tangle in a conference game.
NCAAW: #3 Stanford (-7.5) at #22 Oregon State, 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. On the other side of this is Stanford, who has two of the ten best players in the sport (Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen), battling against Oregon State’s Raegan Beers, who I’d also argue for as a top-10 player. How many times do you get to see five of a sport’s ten best players across two games? Enjoy.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #49 Syracuse at #14 NC State (-11.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Solid undercard. Enjoy NC State’s extremism while it lasts. Over the last 10 games, they rank #1 in the nation in offensive TO%, defensive rebounding percentage, and defensive Free Throw Rate. NC State games have an unusually low number of events, good or bad.
NCAAW: #55 Florida State at #24 Louisville (-7.5), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. Speaking of the last 10 games, some flowers for FSU’s Ta’Niya Latson: 24.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG. It may only result in FSU being an 8 seed, but good work should not go unnoticed.
#21 Gonzaga (-3) at #63 San Francisco, 11 PM ET, ESPN2. Barring a shocking Saint Mary’s road loss to Pepperdine, this is for the #2 seed in the WCC. But! I do think we have ignored that Gonzaga is Actually Good despite a weak resume. They’ve been a permanent KenPom Top 25 fixture since January 4th, and by Wins Above Bubble they’re currently 38th. Does any 2 seed or 7 seed alive want to see Gonzaga as their 10 seed? I’d say no.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #30 Washington State at #9 Utah (-8.5), 5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Good but unfortunately of low consequence, as Wazzu is locked into the 8/9 game and Utah may finish sixth.
#176 Bryant at #149 UMass Lowell (-5), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This locks in the #2 seed for the winner in the America East, if I’m reading things correctly. Vermont will be the #1.
#126 Hofstra at #102 UNC Wilmington (-5), 7 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Winner is, at least temporarily, the #2 seed in the CAA Tournament. Charleston will be the #1.
NCAAW: #58 Texas A&M at #29 Tennessee (-8.5), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Tennessee blew their shot at a signature win yet again. They can still get a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, but a tournament lock this isn’t. A&M is barely in the field as it stands and needs as many wins as they can find.
NCAAW: #17 USC (-1.5) at #44 Arizona, 8 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Arizona was in the Next Four Out prior to shocking Stanford last Friday. A win here might push them into the field!
#289 Tennessee State at #217 Little Rock (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Little Rock has managed to find themselves in a three-way tie for first in the OVC. A win here gives them an 84% shot of at least a share of the conference title.
#159 Montana at #138 Eastern Washington (-5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Eastern Washington is fairly close to locking up a Big Sky title, but Montana can play spoiler and get the #2 seed in the process.
FRIDAY, MARCH 1
FIVE STARS
“Strawberry Fields Forever” by the Beatles. Unimpeachable, untouchable. Best song ever written? I’d hear an argument.
FOUR STARS
#26 Dayton (-3) at #96 Loyola Chicago, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. This is an Atlantic 10 conference race eliminator. Currently, Dayton and Loyola are both in the race with Richmond for the regular season title. As good as Dayton’s been it would look pretty rough for them to not win either the regular season or postseason tournament in the A-10.
THREE STARS
#134 Arkansas State at #81 Appalachian State (-8), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. App State is one of two teams (James Madison) that can win the Sun Belt regular season title, and it’s going to be a battle all the way to the finish. Arkansas State is likely finishing fourth but it’s a terrific recovery from their non-conference performance. Good game here.
#171 Fairfield at #201 Marist (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Huge game in the MAAC race. Fairfield wins and they have an 89% chance of a conference title. Marist mostly can play spoiler but could technically finish anywhere from #1 to #8 right now.
#184 Eastern Kentucky at #166 Lipscomb (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. EKU needs just one win over their final two to clinch an outright A-Sun championship. Lipscomb needs this win to stay in touch for second place.