Week 17 Weekend Watchlist: Chocolate-Covered Strawberries
Yes I've seen the video, they are good-looking strawberries
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Weekend
Two announcements from earlier you may have missed.
All new paid signups, through March 31, can get in for just $18/year. That’s 40% off the standard price. For the data and analysis you will get - every single day of March, there will be a new post on this newsletter, including the NCAA Tournament weekends - I think that is a fair shake.
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I think that’s enough announcing. This one is about 3,400 words, so enjoy.
All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. D-2 and below are from Massey Ratings. On with the show.
SATURDAY, MARCH 2
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#30 Villanova at #55 Providence (-1), 12 PM ET, FOX. On a surface level, this is the bubble game of the day. As it stands, this is the second team out of the Bracket Matrix field playing at the second-to-last team in the field. It’s like a First Four game 2.5 weeks before you get the First Four. Predictably my feeling is that Villanova needs this more than Providence does, but both need it bad. Something of note: Villanova is quietly 4-5 against top-25 defenses, while Providence is 2-6.
#13 Illinois at #23 Wisconsin (-1), 1 PM ET, BTN. This is the most purely fun game of the morning, I think. Wisconsin is becoming pretty desperate after a horrific February, but I’d wager this could be a great Buy Low spot. Wisconsin shot 28.8% from three in February, which is pretty rough after going 31% > 36% > 41% from November through January. Their value likely won’t be lower the entire season and they’re playing an Illinois defense that ranks 151st since the New Year.
FOUR STARS
#28 Florida at #46 South Carolina (-1), 12 PM ET, ESPN. Deeply impactful game here in the SEC race. 1. A Florida win gives them an 87% shot to finish in the SEC top four, earning a double bye; a South Carolina win gives the Gamecocks a 94% chance and a 10% chance at a share of the overall title. 2. If South Carolina and Tennessee win, it sets up Wednesday’s battle between the two as the regular season championship game.
#16 Kansas at #14 Baylor (-5), 1 PM ET, ABC. This one really only matters because the winner all but secures a Big 12 Tournament double-bye, which is pretty big when you play in the toughest conference in America. Should be fun! Kevin McCullar is questionable. I keep hearing the “you can’t judge Kansas when he’s not playing” thing, which I do not believe in. For one, they barely scrapped into #10 in the nation with him, per Torvik. Not a title contender! Also, they’ve now pulled off two Quad 1 wins without him in five games. I think they just are who they are, McCullar or not.
THREE STARS
#144 Colgate (-4) at #275 Lehigh, 12 PM ET, CBSSN. Patriot League race is already wrapped with Colgate the champion, so if you haven’t seen them yet, watch a few minutes here.
#139 Tulane at #37 Florida Atlantic (-13), 12 PM ET, ESPNU. FAU fully secures an AAC double-bye with a win. They’d be the likely 2 seed with a Charlotte loss.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#11 Marquette at #12 Creighton (-3), 2:30 PM ET, FOX. A must-win for Marquette to have an outside chance at the Big East title, but moreso this is just a great basketball game. This is going to have the feel of a Sweet Sixteen game, especially because Creighton’s crowds are a bit nutty for games like this one. A key I’m watching here is what Marquette has in the bag on the road, because they’ve quietly struggled when not at home. They rank 306th in OREB%, 307th in FT Rate, and lose the rebounding battle by an average of -9.2 per 100 possessions in true road games.
FOUR STARS
#148 UMass Lowell at #98 Vermont (-7), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Vermont locks up the America East with a win, but really, this is the second-best game by watchability. Vermont's defense has been extraordinary since New Year’s Day: #37 nationally, #26 in eFG% allowed, #1 in DREB%, #6 in FT Rate.
NCAAW: #31 Washington State at #17 Colorado (-5), 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Washington State’s NCAAT case has fallen on hard times, now projected in the First Four of Mark Schindler’s Bracket Watch at The Athletic. This is a must-win game at a Colorado team attempting to hold onto a protected seed.
THREE STARS
#60 Oregon at #4 Arizona (-14), 2 PM ET, ESPN. Not that exciting. Oregon is fully eliminated from the Pac-12 title race with a loss.
#127 Hofstra at #113 Charleston (-4), 2 PM ET, Flo Hoops. Charleston has the CAA regular season title locked up, so this is exclusively of interest to Hofstra. A win gets them the CAA 2 seed no matter what; a loss means they’re the 3. This is notable because the CAA has six good teams, and if you’re the 2 you don’t have to play any of them until the semifinals at earliest.
#160 Towson at #107 UNC Wilmington (-7), 2 PM ET, CBSSN. This is the other CAA biggie. A Towson win can push them as high as the 3 seed if Hofstra/Drexel both lose. A UNCW win locks in at least a 4 seed with a chance at the 3.
#124 Western Carolina at #135 Chattanooga (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Interesting piece of this one: if Chattanooga and Wofford (10-point fave over VMI) both win, this game gets re-done as the 3/6 game in the SoCon Tournament next Saturday. If Chattanooga loses, they would play Wofford…who they’ve beaten twice by 14 and 16. Is a loss the best long play? Some are saying!
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
Raising Arizona (1987). I learned recently that this has picked back up into circulation on movie channels like Showtime and Flix, which is terrific news to hear. In a just world this would be on TBS every Sunday at 3 PM Eastern.
FOUR STARS
D2: #24 Lubbock Christian at #3 West Texas A&M (-6.5), 4 PM ET, streaming. No real notes on this one besides it’s an excellent D2 game and you should get familiar with West Texas A&M, who’s a real title threat at this level. I hate doing this, but it’s the way of the world now: keep an eye on WTA&M’s Kieran Elliott (12.4 PPG, 7 RPG) as a potential D1 up-transfer. Extremely talented scorer with real size.
#27 Mississippi State at #6 Auburn (-9), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. A must-win game for both, but for totally different situations. A win here gives Mississippi State a 7 seed at worst, in my opinion, which is nice because you avoid playing a 1 seed. A win for Auburn is a necessity to remain on pace for an SEC Tournament double-bye and a 4 seed.
#10 Iowa State (-5) at #65 UCF, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Worrisome one for ISU. UCF obviously isn’t very good, but they’ve played like a top-40 team at home, per Evan Miyakawa. Per Haslametrics, this is the #362 away/home court split at #6. We’ll see if the trends reverse.
#94 South Florida at #105 Charlotte (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. AAC regular season title game, more or less. Charlotte almost had USF the first time around, so we’ll see if they can get it this time out.
THREE STARS
#74 NC State at #9 North Carolina (-13), 4 PM ET, ESPN. My assumption is that NC State gives Kevin Keatts another year, which is not my problem so whatever. This is my question: how many players on UNC would you take before you took anyone from NC State’s roster? I’m at four: Bacot, Davis, Ingram, Cadeau before I take DJ Horne. At best it’s three.
#271 Nicholls State at #69 McNeese State (-16), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. McNeese needs one win to clinch the Southland in Will Wade’s first season.
#50 Iowa at #42 Northwestern (-4), 5:30 PM ET, BTN. Has anyone discussed that 17-12 Iowa has seven Q1/Q2 wins, a 10-1 record against Q3/Q4, a top-50 KenPom ranking, and ends its season with two Quad 1 opportunities? Just me? I’m just saying: not dead yet!
#22 Wake Forest (-1) at #56 Virginia Tech, 5:30 PM ET, The CW. Wake at home is a fearsome beast. Wake away from home is like a little puppy. Gotta change that if you want to dance.
6-8 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#108 Cornell at #62 Princeton (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Cornell, Princeton, and Yale are all in a three-way tie atop the Ivy. That is one reason. The other is that these are two of the prettiest-to-watch offenses in the entire sport of basketball at any level. Cornell is #4 in Rim and Three Rate and plays with its hair on fire every possession, while Princeton’s offense ranks #2 in ShotQuality’s offensive spacing stat. Alternate drama: Cornell’s HC, Brian Earl, was a Princeton player and longtime assistant.
FOUR STARS
Whoever this guy is. Northern Colorado already gifted the world with Dalton Knecht, but apparently I’ve been missing out on an even better name and look
THREE STARS
#63 Virginia at #8 Duke (-11), 6 PM ET, ESPN. I understand why someone would choose to watch this; I just do not agree with the decision to do so unless you’re a fan of either team.
#83 VCU at #73 Richmond (-4), 6 PM ET, CBSSN. Richmond moves one win closer to an Atlantic 10 regular season title if they hold serve here. A VCU upset quietly puts them into contention for the title, too, as they would only be a game back with two to play. Not so bad after how their season began!
#59 Texas A&M at #87 Georgia (-1), 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Fascinating battle here: whose dead cat bounces higher? A&M’s lost five straight, UGA eight of nine. Please stop getting fooled by Mike White, fellow media members.
#209 Green Bay at #251 Milwaukee (-2), 6 PM ET, ESPNU. Green Bay is your Horizon 2 seed in Sundance Wicks’ first year with a win here, which is nuts. Milwaukee is locked into the 6, I think.
#71 Kansas State at #44 Cincinnati (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a bubble eliminator, but not a fun one. Neither is really close to the field. All this does is completely rule out one or the other.
#95 UCLA at #41 Washington State (-9), 7 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. A must-win for Washington State to keep pace for the Pac-12 title with Arizona. A must win for UCLA to guarantee a .500 finish in league play.
#182 Northern Kentucky at #151 Wright State (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Winner finishes as high as the 3 seed (if NKU) or the 4 (if Wright).
8-10 PM ET
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEKEND
#5 Tennessee at #7 Alabama (-1), 8 PM ET, ESPN. As far as I can remember, this is the only time a team has gotten TSSGotW twice in the same 7-day span. What can I say, when you’ve got Dalton Knecht and you keep playing games with gigantic importance to the national scale you’re gonna end up here. A full preview of this game will be up alongside this watchlist.
FIVE STARS
#34 New Mexico at #37 Boise State (-3), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. If you find yourself annoyed by the existence of the SEC and all its misgivings, this is the game for you. This is a legitimate bubble battle. I think Boise is pretty safely in but I wouldn’t call it a lock. New Mexico felt like a lock, but a recent spurt of rough results has called this into question. They feel like a First Four team unless they can pull off a road win in what should be a thrilling back-and-forth battle between two elite defenses.
FOUR STARS
#1 Houston (-6) at #39 Oklahoma, 8 PM ET, ESPN2. This is somehow Kelvin Sampson’s first game at Oklahoma since he was the coach at Oklahoma in the 2000s. I’m curious how he’s received. I’d imagine he gets a good-enough reception, aside from being the opposing HC? A win here gives Houston an 89% shot at a standalone Big 12 title in their first year in the league. Not so bad, right?
#21 Michigan State at #2 Purdue (-11), 8 PM ET, FOX. Purdue guarantees a share of the Big Ten title with a win here, but I’m more intrigued by the Michigan State side of things here. A loss plants them at 9-9 in B1G play and adds to a growing list of non-home losses. They’d be 4-8 away from home with a loss with perhaps the most behind-the-times offensive structure any top 25 KenPom team has.
#30 TCU at #15 BYU (-5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. I just like this because it’s fun. Pure fun without a ton of aftermath from it. BYU and TCU both have roughly a coin-flip shot at a top-four finish in the Big 12, with BYU’s odds being a hair better. It’s nigh-impossible to do but if BYU stuffs TCU in transition there’s not much of a path for the Horned Frogs. The Cougs are 4-5 when allowing 11+ fastbreak points and 16-3 otherwise.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #10 UCLA (-5.5) at #42 Arizona, 8 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. This is a legitimate MUST-WIN GAME ALL CAPS for Arizona. A win gives them a 10-10 finish in the toughest league in women’s basketball, which should be enough to earn them a bid in the eventual NCAA Tournament.
D2: #8 Fort Lewis at #23 Colorado Mines (-2.5), 9 PM ET, streaming. Again, I don’t know a ton on this one but it seems fun. Both have a real shot at the D2 Elite Eight, which is what they use instead of the Final Four as a central meeting point.
LATE
FIVE STARS
#17 Gonzaga at #20 Saint Mary’s (-2), 10 PM ET, ESPN. Not really of any consequence, but who are you to turn this down?
FOUR STARS
Reading, Writing, and Arithmetic (1990) by The Sundays. Have you guys heard this album before? I cannot imagine anyone with ears disliking it, particularly if you like The Smiths or R.E.M. or any sort of artist with jangly guitars. They seem pretty fondly remembered based on Spotify streams at least, which is nice to see, but I never would have been aware of them had I not heard “Here’s Where the Story Ends” by chance in a grocery store in 2016. Perfect song.
THREE STARS
#167 Long Beach State at #77 UC Irvine (-11), 10 PM ET, ESPN2. Watch out for Long Beach in the Big West Tournament. Not many teams that will play in it own wins over Michigan, USC, and UC San Diego, all top-125 teams. Very dangerous team, to themselves and to others.
SUNDAY, MARCH 3
Happy 50th anniversary to “Waterloo” by ABBA, a perfect song.
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #11 Ohio State at #3 Iowa (-5.5), 1 PM ET, FOX. This was very nearly the Game of the Weekend, for what it’s worth. Caitlin Clark has already accomplished as much as I think she possibly can, but she didn’t take the Big Ten regular season title this year. This won’t overcome that, but it’s a fun (if relatively light on impact) game between two of the best and most enjoyable teams in the sport.
This is Caitlin’s final home game, one final run before she goes off into a 15-year WNBA career. Might as well have fun with it.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #27 Tennessee at #1 South Carolina (-19.5), 12 PM ET, ESPN. Well, here’s your final chance to see Rickea Jackson take on the world in a regular season game. Also the last thing standings between Dawn Staley and back-to-back undefeated regular seasons.
THREE STARS
#58 Seton Hall at #3 Connecticut (-13), 12 PM ET, CBS. Seton Hall has been awful away from home this year, sitting 88th in Torvik’s away/neutral ratings. Until I see otherwise I have a bad feeling this will add to their growing list of blowouts, which is very problematic for getting in the field of 68.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #23 Louisville at #13 Notre Dame (-5.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN. Hannah Hidalgo’s list of accomplishments continue to grow, now sitting with a bonkers 23.7 PPG/6.4 RPG/5.5 APG/4.8 SPG statline for the year. One of the few teams to actually beat her and the Irish this year? Louisville, who won on February 8 despite 30 points and 7 (!) steals by Hidalgo. Should be a great one, one of many to come over the next three years of Hidalgo’s career. What a special talent she is.
#67 Bradley at #53 Drake (-4), 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2. This game is more or less meaningless if Indiana State beats Murray State Saturday, but it doesn’t require meaning to still be fun. These teams have been on fire since New Year’s Day. Bradley ranks 37th on Torvik post-NYD, while Drake is 45th. In a just world, we’d have these two plus Indiana State in the NCAA Tournament. We will not, but it’s okay. We simply needed to ensure that Seton Hall AND Virginia will be in the field. Thank God!
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #25 Alabama (-0.5) at #60 Texas A&M, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. With a win here and a presumed Tennessee loss to South Carolina, Alabama will clinch an SEC Tournament double-bye. This is merely a thing they have NEVER DONE BEFORE. It would also be their highest conference finish since 1997-98. Wild! Good for them.
THREE STARS
#118 Northern Iowa at #112 Southern Illinois (-4), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. True story: the winner of this game will get the MVC 4 seed….because they’d have a higher NET rating than fellow 12-8 MVC team Belmont by either two (UNI) or 12 (SIU) spots.
NCAAW: #28 Maryland at #9 Indiana (-7.5), 3 PM ET, Peacock. Nothing at stake here unless Iowa loses to Ohio State in Caitlin Clark’s final home game, which means Indiana would be the Big Ten #2 with a win.
4-LATE PM ET
FIVE STARS
Pennzoil 400, Las Vegas, 4 PM ET, FOX. Look, I love NASCAR. Last week’s finish was arguably a top-3 finish in the history of the sport. OF COURSE I want to see what the next race looks like! You should too.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #15 Duke (-0.5) at #36 North Carolina, 4 PM ET, ESPN. This is basically a game between two 6 or 7 seeds, and it’s a rivalry game. One final home game for the terrific Deja Kelly of UNC, who went for 20 in a close loss at Duke three weeks back.
THREE STARS
#143 Murray State at #45 Indiana State (-12), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Simple one: Indiana State wins, they’re the outright MVC champion. Even with a loss they’d still probably be MVC champion, but it would go down to NET rating. But, hey, just win.
#130 UAB at #72 Memphis (-8), 5:30 PM ET, ESPN2. I’m puzzled to report that Memphis is somehow still on the Tournament fringes, which I don’t agree with but I don’t get to make the rules. A win here keeps their barely-there pulse still going; a loss thankfully eliminates these guys firmly.