Week 18 Weekday Watchlist: One More Time
Raise the flag, summer home
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
This is the final Weekday Watchlist column of the season, which is a real bummer to share. Once next week goes around it’ll all be focused on conference tournament happenings and such, which are hard to build a schedule around because you don’t always know which teams will be playing in which games. With the last normal-ish week of the season bearing down, it seems like a good time to reflect back.
This can go a variety of directions. The first one is a personal one. If you’ve read, shared, or engaged with this work at all since I started up the Substack version of the newsletter in 2022 and especially since I created my own site in early 2019, I’m forever grateful. The original goal for this was 500 total subscribers, 100 paid. I have a day job and figured that was reasonable. At the time of writing we’re at 2,130+ total and 470 paid. It is insane and irrational to me that you people care this much. I cannot appropriately express how grateful I am for that.
Beyond that, it’s just been a terrific season of college basketball. There’s a nice combination right now of legitimate standout teams at the top to go with a deep feeling of uncertainty among the fans of those teams. Outside of UConn, who won the title last year, pretty much every fanbase among the top ~7 teams in the seed list has reason for concern. Purdue and Tennessee both top the Best to Not Make a Final Four list. Houston has made three straight Sweet 16s but blew a golden opportunity last year. UNC has quietly played like a 4 or 5 seed for a month. Marquette hasn’t seen the Final Four in 21 years.
To go with it, there have been numerous wonderful stories. You have South Carolina and Washington State, two largely forgotten programs, having historic seasons. Utah State in Year One of a new coach with a completely new roster tracking for a Mountain West title. Northwestern - NORTHWESTERN - about to make back-to-back NCAATs. Indiana State has its best team in 40+ years. App State, Samford, Grand Canyon, and High Point all have their best teams in school history. And who can forget South Florida, with a completely new roster and coach, winning the AAC in Year One of Amir Abdur-Rahim?
I mentioned in the first watchlist of the season that in some regards, this felt like an End of History year.
What’s coming down the pipe is one huge, overwhelming bummer. College athletics are going to change forever for the worse. . . . That’s why I’ve elected to bury my head in the sand a bit. Don’t take this, any of this, for granted.
That’s held 100% since opening night. The latest was the NCAA’s mouthpiece letting the Big 12 advertise for a 96-team tournament. Every week or two there’s been a new story about someone somewhere trying to destroy the thing we love. It hasn’t happened yet. It may never happen. All I know is that 2023-24 has been a fantastic season, one before a lot of things we like and love change. Here’s hoping the basketball itself survives, just like it always has.
This post is free, as all Watchlists are, but if you’d like to get behind the paywall for the 95% of posts that are behind one, you can sign up below for $18/year.
This one is regrettably without any NCAAW games or lower-divisions, as those are all in conference tournaments or their level’s national tournament. We’ll have a women’s NCAAT preview when the time is right. For now, all rankings are from KenPom.
MONDAY, MARCH 4
FIVE STARS
The We Got Ice YouTube channel.
I admit to having serious jealousy of these kids. (I assume they’re kids because they both look 24 or so. Definitely recent college graduates.) I cannot get enough of their videos. Trying to hit wiffleball homers with a ruler? I’m in. Building a baseball glove out of LEGOs? Uh yeah let’s put that one on. My wife claims that “Zo” sounds like the kid from Polar Express which is very rude.
But really, I just like these guys. I like hangin’ with ‘em. They’re not reinventing the wheel, they’re not doing anything I haven’t seen before. They’re just nice kids that make deeply enjoyable 10-12 minute videos weekly.
FOUR STARS
#7 Duke (-6) at #76 NC State, 7 PM ET, ESPN. It is a serious shame that NC State is probably due to peter out pretty early this year, because the combo of DJ Horne and DJ Burns are probably the best 1-2 DJ punch any team has had in…ever? Or at least a pretty long time. I’d be more into this and am at least intrigued, but NCSU is 1-6 versus Quad 1 and the lone win is a 1-point road W at Clemson. They’ve swung and missed on basically every huge opportunity handed to them.
#26 Texas at #14 Baylor (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPN. I’ve been a Hater™ of Texas this year but despite a 7-6 record since January 15, I’d argue they’re actually undervalued at the moment. They’ve played like a top-20 team since that date (not associated with anyone, just picked as a representative mid-January day), outpacing teams like Kentucky, Alabama, and North Carolina.
THREE STARS
The state of Virginia. It’s on the map! Certainly there.
TUESDAY, MARCH 5
FIVE STARS
#8 Alabama (-3) at #31 Florida, 7 PM ET, ESPN.
#3 Purdue (-1) at #12 Illinois, 7 PM ET, Peacock. Together, these should be two hyper-fun games where road teams that are slim favorites have to go on the road to be the opponent’s Senior Day. They’re also at the same time, which is a bummer. I’ll probably be watching Alabama/Florida because it’s higher-scoring and the game more relevant to my personal interests but a lot of people should watch Purdue/Illinois, too. Two elite options. If only one was at 9 PM.
FOUR STARS
#47 Cincinnati at #37 Oklahoma (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Cincinnati eked out a win on Saturday over Kansas State, keeping a very slim bubble case still alive. They have to win out to have a shot. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s lost four of five and is a loss here from being likely to finish 7-11 Big 12. Is that enough to call them a lock?
#41 Nevada at #34 Boise State (-4), 11 PM ET, FS1. Huge, huge closing week in the Mountain West. Boise is tied for first with Utah State but doesn’t own the tiebreaker; they need a USU loss and a 2-0 finish. Nevada, meanwhile, can all but clinch a top-four seed with a win here.
#19 San Diego State (-3) at #78 UNLV, 11 PM ET, CBSSN. A must-win for both. A win for either team clinches a top-four seed. A San Diego State win and a Nevada loss locks SDSU in no lower than the 3 seed, I think.
THREE STARS
#79 Syracuse at #25 Clemson (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. A Syracuse win clinches a top-four seed in the ACC Tournament for them somehow if I’ve read the odds correctly. Of higher importance is that it would really hammer in Clemson’s deteriorating resume. A loss here would put them at +1.2 Wins Above Bubble, which is the resume of a 9 or 10 seed. They’re a 5 seed in Bracket Matrix at the moment.
#75 Ole Miss at #93 Georgia (-2), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. A Georgia win should all but shove Ole Miss firmly out of the bubble discussion. What a shame it would be for Chris Beard to be watching the NCAA Tournament from home. Boohoo!
#68 Kansas State at #17 Kansas (-10), 9 PM ET, ESPN. I think Kansas State is fully eliminated from at-large talk but a win here makes it interesting. Kansas must win out to avoid playing on Big 12 Tournament Wednesday for the first time ever.
#6 Auburn (-14) at #146 Missouri, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Both Missouri games will be on the watchlist. Sorry but it’s inherently interesting to see if a team can avoid 0-18.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK (OF THE YEAR?)
#2 UConn (-2) at #13 Marquette, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Wish I could do a 2,000-word preview of this one. This isn’t really for anything, as UConn is locked into the 1 seed while Marquette has a 95% chance of being the 2 or 3. But what this is, per Bracket Matrix, is an Elite Eight game at a home court. It’s a 1 seed visiting a 2. Even by metrics, it’s like a 1 playing a 4, which is a Sweet Sixteen game. This Is March. This will also be Senior Day for two Marquette staples in Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro, which will add to the emotion.
FIVE STARS
#24 Villanova (-1) at #60 Seton Hall, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. This is the first team out of the field playing at one of the last four in. Villanova pulled off a monster win at Providence on Saturday, but it also highlighted the problem and potential of Villanova. In 29 games, they’ve shot 35.5% or better from three 15 times. They’re 13-2 in those games. When they don’t hit that mark, they’re 4-10. That highlights precisely why they’re such a dangerous First Four team but why they might not get there in the first place.
#16 BYU at #10 Iowa State (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. On the BYU side, the chaos presents itself less on offense than on defense. The Cougars are a stunning 15-0 when opponents shoot worse than 31% from three. Go above that mark and they’re 5-8. Iowa State is a middling shooting team that doesn’t take many threes to begin with, which is arguably why BYU smoked them in mid-January. Could they pull off the sweep?
FOUR STARS
#5 Tennessee (-5) at #43 South Carolina, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This is for the SEC regular season title. A Tennessee win completely locks up at least a share of the SEC title for just the second time since 2008. A South Carolina win does not do that, but opens up the door for a plausible three-way tie between Tennessee, Alabama, and South Carolina. Which would be nuts!
#46 Northwestern at #20 Michigan State (-7), 7 PM ET, BTN. Simple thing to watch: MSU >50% from two: 13-1. MSU <50% from two: 4-10. Northwestern’s defense is weak this year, so it should play into MSU’s favor, but I cannot get behind this edition of MSU making a deep run.
THREE STARS
#1 Houston (-10) at #65 UCF, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. A Houston win and a BYU win locks in an outright Houston Big 12 championship. An Iowa State win at least keeps it interesting into Saturday.
#40 Florida Atlantic (-1) at #80 North Texas, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Meh. Worth noting that FAU is 11-2 when hitting 9+ threes.
#95 Indiana at #61 Minnesota (-6), 9 PM ET, BTN. Couple of weird notes here: Indiana’s road games have gone over 5 times out of 8, but ShotQuality suggests it should be 2 for 8. If this is a game low on points I do think I like Indiana’s chances.
#30 Mississippi State at #54 Texas A&M (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Well, it’s a game. Please do not let this A&M team in the field, because they will win a game or two and I don’t want it.
THURSDAY, MARCH 7
FIVE STARS
Casablanca (1942), 8 PM ET, TCM. Classics are classics, you know.
FOUR STARS
#28 Colorado (-1) at #63 Oregon, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. This is a non-negotiable MUST WIN for Colorado to get into the field of 68. It may not be enough, but as the third team out at the moment, they need everything they can get. I also want them in the field because they’re chaotic enough to do real damage. They sit at 39.8% from three with a giant rebounding advantage in most games. They’ve shot 42% or better from three 12 times this year.
#58 Washington at #39 Washington State (-6), 9 PM ET, FS1. Wazzu is a tourney lock, but this is the best spite game left on the schedule. This will be the final ‘real’ Washington/WSU game, as both teams depart for different conferences at season’s end. Couple that with Senior Day for the best WSU team in 15+ years and it is going to be a nuts environment.
THREE STARS
#209 Marist at #189 Quinnipiac (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. A Marist win heavily increases the odds of a potential four-way tie for first at 13-7 in the MAAC, so I’m rooting for that.
#293 South Carolina State at #237 North Carolina Central (-6), 7:30 PM ET, streaming. Winner has an outside shot at a MEAC title share.
#187 Northern Kentucky at #155 Wright State (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a Horizon League quarterfinal, so your mileage may vary, but offense vs. offense is always entertaining.
#281 Howard at #254 Norfolk State, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Pretty simple: Norfolk State goes 2-0 this week, they’re your MEAC champion.
#154 Sam Houston State at #83 Louisiana Tech (-9), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Very simple game: the winner clinches the Conference USA title, at least a share of it. What a run by Sam Houston State, by the way. Started out 6-8 and played like the 212th-ranked team in November/December, per Torvik. Since NYD: 11-3, #121.
#190 UC Davis at #109 UC San Diego, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. UCSD must win and UCI likely needs to lose at Cal State Fullerton on Saturday for the Tritons to grab a share of the Big West title.
FRIDAY, MARCH 8
FIVE STARS
#35 Boise State at #19 San Diego State (-5), 10 PM ET, FS1. The level of importance of this game varies with the results of Tuesday pending, but if both Boise and SDSU win on Tuesday this is a five-alarm fire. If Utah State loses even one game this week this is a Mountain West conference championship game. A real thing to watch is if Boise can be one of the rare teams to crack SDSU inside the perimeter. Boise is 12-1 when shooting above 50% from two and five of SDSU’s seven losses have come with their opponent cracking that mark. Easier said than done, especially given Boise shooting 41% from two at home the first time around.
FOUR STARS
#84 VCU at #27 Dayton (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Dayton is all but eliminated from the A-10 title race, which feels like a failure on their part, but a win here at least locks up the 3 seed…I guess.
THREE STARS
Indiana State’s quarterfinal in the MVC Tournament, 1 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the best time of the year because there’s midday basketball available for all to watch. You could do a lot worse than blowing two hours by watching Indiana State.
The OVC semifinals, 8 PM ET and 10:30ish PM ET, ESPNU. It’s like prep for the rest of conference tournament season. Are these going to be good games? Unlikely. Will they be important? Yes, so keep an eye on them.
How do you choose Man of Metropolis on Casimir Pulaski day, great article otherwise, looking forward to the rest of March!