Week 2 Watchlist (Monday-Thursday): Don't Leave Me in the Lost and Found
An early-season analysis of which teams have the lowest amount of garbage stink on them
Hi! Welcome to the weekly Watchlist guide, which tells you which games in a given week are worth watching.
This is a two-parter this week, as preseason tournaments are officially commencing and at least for the next two weeks, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to produce a full watchlist on a Monday knowing very little about the Friday-Sunday schedule until some games get finalized. So: you get two watchlists! One today, one Friday. Enjoy.
First, a short column.
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
Week one of the college basketball season felt rather promising, in terms of the chaos this season could produce. If you’re a non-obsessive, you may have missed such results as:
LSU functionally nuking their non-conference resume with a home loss to Nicholls State.
Vanderbilt, UNLV, and West Virginia all doing the same as huge home favorites.
The obvious one: Michigan State losing the home opener to James Madison.
James Madison then playing the game of the year three days later in a 113-108 2OT decision over Kent State.
Oh, and Maryland is 1-2.
But! I advise against leaving certain teams in the dumpster. I’m old enough to remember Ole Miss beating Florida Atlantic by double digits in the opening week of last year’s season. Or Tennessee getting smoked by a bad Colorado team. Or eventual 6 seed TCU losing at home to Northwestern State! As much of a believer as I am in November actually mattering to the college basketball bottom line, sometimes weird stuff happens and you can write it off.
In the absence of anything else really interesting to talk about and with a deadline incoming, I’ve selected six teams that have heavily underperformed their preseason KenPom expectations through one week. How much should I be worried about this team, on a scale of 1 to 10? While these early weeks are telling, they can also be a mirage for some. NOTE: I’ve only picked teams inside the KenPom top 200, aka those with at least somewhat realistic preseason expectations.
DePaul
Preseason: 113th
Today: 170th
Results: 0-2 (losses to Fort Wayne and Long Beach State)
This is sort of the free space. I expanded it to six teams to get DePaul in there, who put in perhaps the stinkiest opening week imaginable for a power conference team not named Louisville. I already know that Louisville will be awful, but I thought DePaul might at least compete a little bit. It appears not. ShotQuality has these guys for about 0.6 expected wins in these two games, meaning they got outplayed in both games against teams they should be beating by now. Worry level: 10/10, in the sense that Louisville might have a Worst Big Six Team competitor.
West Virginia
Preseason: 65th
Today: 90th
Results: 1-1 (lost to Monmouth)
Interestingly enough, this is mostly a situation of how much you think they should be worried. After all, this season is functionally down the toilet before it began. I think they have looked horrendous defensively and could be in line for a finish in the mid-100s…but at the same time, it probably doesn’t matter. If Josh Eilert can’t hack it, you’ll just hire a new guy in March anyway. If Josh Eilert turns this around, well, he’s done quite the good job. Worry level: 5/10. Functionally a punt.
UNC Asheville
Preseason: 158th
Today: 203rd
Results: 0-2
Man, if only there had been a site that could have told you this was the single luckiest team in years last season. Oh wait! There is. I’m not out on these guys by any means, but there was a lot of discussion over them potentially going undefeated in conference play…I mean. Worry level: 7/10.
UNLV
Preseason: 76th
Today: 105th
Results: 1-1
Losing at home to Southern by 14 is never a good result, but it does require context. Southern shot 11-18 from three, their best result on 15+ attempts in four full seasons. I don’t think UNLV could play that exact game again if they tried, but it’s still concerning that SQ only graded it as about a 6-point UNLV win. That should be a 20+ point win if UNLV wants to get to where they think they should be. Rebounding with a beatdown of Stetson was nice, but being unable to force turnovers against two bad opponents is really concerning. Worry level: 8/10.
Maryland
Preseason: 23rd
Today: 45th
Results: 1-2
Maryland was expected to win the Asheville Championship and instead went 0-2, creating a serious panic amongst their fans. There are two numbers here I would be in desperate need of a turnaround in if I’m a Maryland supporter:
Maryland largely creates fine-enough shots on offense but seems to not have anyone that can actually make them while combining that with a horrific turnover rate. That’s not sustainable; at the same time I don’t think Maryland sustains this level of play anyway. I’m not willing to admit defeat here! Worry level: 4/10.
Vanderbilt
Preseason: 77th
Today: 119th
Results: 1-1
Vanderbilt is losing the turnover battle by an insane 8 turnovers per 100 possessions, which helps explain why they lost to a nasty Presbyterian team and nearly lost to USC Upstate. It does require the context of the Commodores having a few injuries, but an SEC roster that has injuries still should go 2-0 against that slate. This is year five under Jerry Stackhouse and they’ve got zero in the way of real rim pressure…which is weird, because it’s Jerry freakin’ Stackhouse. Worry level: 9/10. I’m holding back the 10/10 because I do think they’ve been unlucky defensively, but still.
All men’s rankings are via KenPom; all women’s rankings via Her Hoop Stats.
MONDAY
FOUR STARS
#34 Michigan (-1) at #60 St. John’s, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Here’s a team that had a great first week! Michigan looks awesome and rejuvenated with a roster that actually wants to play both ways. I’m not 100% ready to buy in on them as a sudden top-15 team, but top-25? Sure! St. John’s, on the other hand, has just the one performance (a 90-74 W over Stony Brook) where they looked terrible defensively, but it’s Rick Pitino. Why distrust that guy on defense?
#134 South Dakota State at #43 Kansas State (-13), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Losing at home to Akron was a little disappointing from SDSU, but this is still a roster capable of scoring 85+ on any night. Kansas State, meanwhile, has looked horrendous defensively…though with the context that they’re missing a couple of guys. All I’m saying is that there’s a chance here.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #88 Memphis at #25 Tennessee (-17.5), 6:30 PM ET, SECN+. HHS is lower on Tennessee than the average voter is, and I think Tennessee’s quite a bit better than this shows. Their offense is far, far better this season…though the defense may have taken a step back. Either way, this is a reasonably telling game to see how the Lady Vols perform against a Memphis team that should be top-4 in the AAC.
TUESDAY
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#12 Duke (-3) vs. #30 Michigan State, 7 PM ET, ESPN. I understand that having this above Kansas/Kentucky is probably aggressive, but hear me out. These are two teams that badly do not need a second early loss. Michigan State can afford it less than Duke, because Duke losing to Arizona is going to age better than a loss to a good-but-not-Arizona James Madison team. Still, Duke really cannot start 1-2 after months of hearing about how they’re the best team in college basketball.
I’m mostly interested to see if Michigan State’s frontcourt issues are fixed at all here. They were horrendous against James Madison and fine against Southern Indiana. I’m not concerned about the 2-31 start from three; no one shoots 6% from deep forever. MSU is overdue for a tremendous positive regression from deep…and if that happens here I’m really curious to see how Duke handles it.
FIVE STARS
#3 Kansas (-5) vs. #15 Kentucky, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN. This is a great jersey game and deserves the five-star moniker, but I am not fully convinced that these are two five-star teams in terms of watchability. Kansas had a pair of tremendous shooting performances against bad teams last week but that followed two ugly ones in preseason. Kentucky looks a little more ahead of the curve defensively than on offense.
FOUR STARS
WBB: #3 Utah (-20) at #42 Baylor, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I need more people to become aware of this Utah team this year, a group I wrote about last winter. They’re a serious national title contender in the final year of the Pac-12, a conference that looks like the best of the bunch in women’s hoops this year. Baylor is preseason top 25 and may be underrated by HHS given that their defense looks pretty good. Either way, great test for a national title contender here.
#11 Marquette at #25 Illinois (-1), 8 PM ET, FS1. Marquette looked the part in their opening week with a pair of blowouts; this is the first real game they play. Illinois looked really shaky against Oakland, but this is the same Illinois team that pulled off the preseason win over Kansas at home. I don’t think they’re going to shoot 29% from deep and 51% from the free throw line the whole season.
#39 Iowa at #8 Creighton (-9), 10 PM ET, FS1. Well, this is going to be the most fun two hours of your week.
THREE STARS
#144 Colgate at #110 Syracuse (-5), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Colgate is the extremely obvious favorite in the Patriot League. I thought last week’s two Syracuse wins were…okay. I don’t know! I think Syracuse should be winning these games again, but I like Matt Langel a lot and think this could be another surprise.
WEDNESDAY
THREE STARS
#91 Princeton at #79 Duquesne (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is an awful day of hoops, so let me take this time to recommend a book I’ve been reading lately titled The Open-Air Life. It’s all about how people in the Nordic countries just spend their whole lives outside, basically? Sounds nice. I’ll be sure to keep it in mind the next time I am honked at for the crime of running on a sidewalk. Still beats running in Nashville where sidewalks are considered a criminal act to homeowners.
THURSDAY
FIVE STARS
WBB: #32 Maryland at #8 UConn (-16.5), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. This had some shine knocked off it with both teams losing yesterday (Maryland to South Carolina, UConn to NCSU). Still, these are two preseason top 25 teams, and UConn has real national title desires with Paige Bueckers back at full strength. As annoying as Geno is, I do find UConn extremely watchable every single season.
FOUR STARS
#96 Furman vs. #66 Liberty (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. If you are aware at all of how these two offenses operate, I do recommend watching. If you are not, I recommend watching. If you are like me and are interested to see how Liberty’s extremely aggressive perimeter D that erases open threes handles a Furman offense that generates them in spades…well, yeah. Watch!
THREE STARS
#136 Charleston vs. #132 Vermont (-0.5), 11:30 AM ET, ESPNU. This is this week’s game preview, so no notes for now. I think both of these teams are ahead of their KenPom rankings.
#65 Dayton vs. #64 LSU (PK), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. This might be more of a hate-watch than I’d originally hoped. Dayton has been awful to watch on offense thus far and LSU just dropped a home affair to Nicholls. This has a ton of swing in the non-conference resume for both, though, which makes this at least worth having on during the day.
#35 Utah (-5) vs. #71 Wake Forest, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. I love Craig Smith as a coach and think he will get things going at Utah, especially given that they looked fabulous in two blowouts last week. Wake is more problematic and lost a stinker to Georgia, but the total lack of defense played means this game should be quite fun.