Week 2 Watchlist: Numbers Add Up to Nothin'
Red means run, son
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
Here is an underdiscussed part of college basketball at this time: it is good and it is the most watchable it has been in my adult lifetime. Ken pointed this out on BlueSky the other day:
And that’s one data point. I have another to share: this is the best start to a college basketball season in most of your memories. Here is a chart showing the first seven days of the college basketball season versus the other first seven days we have on record, thanks to Ken:
As of now, we’re seeing the best offensive efficiency likely in the sport’s history, the best 2PT%, the best eFG%, the best FT%, the fewest unforced turnovers, the lowest TO%, and the highest PPG in 30+ years. The last time the sport cracked 74+ PPG in a full season was 1994-95. Even the actual games are wildly exciting. Ken’s Excitement score caught ten games with a value of 3.09 or higher in opening week; last year’s opening week had five, and all of these games would’ve ranked inside the top 80 for best games of all of last season.
I don’t have a theory for this yet, but perhaps you do. Here are my guesses in no order:
Continued fallout from the revised block/charge rule, as evidenced by the lower-than-ever unforced error rate.
Coaches becoming more analytically-inclined and therefore improving their teams’ shot selection. (The median team has taken just 19.6% of their shots from midrange so far!)
Final year of COVID/fifth-year seniors, and basketball continuing to be as old as it’s been in decades.
Increase in overall scoring talent. (Less easy to quantify.)
Renewed emphasis on OREBs/putbacks for easy points. (Goes with the theory of the big man being important again.)
What are your theories for this? I’d be highly curious to see if anyone’s done more research than I have, and as always, it’s plausible Mr. Pomeroy may have already done it with his own Substack in tow. Here’s your watchlist.
We have a new scoring system this year to simplify things a bit, because I realized that a 1-5 star scale where you never touch stars 1 or 2 is pretty dumb. So: we’re going corporate, baby. The A/B/C scale is here.
A GAMES are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ GAME every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
B GAMES are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
C GAMES are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
We hope to never get to D or F GAMES this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. NEW! All lines for women’s games are via Bart Torvik.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Less powerful day of hoops, but it exists. Also Dolphins/Rams is…eh? I think that’s a pass. Then again, I was mad and tired and went to bed at halftime of the Lions game last night, so perhaps it is I who is stupid.
B GAMES
#121 McNeese State at #6 Alabama (-20), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Alabama had to scrap and claw with the mid-major version of themselves in Arkansas State for about 37 minutes on Friday night. I saw a lot of people cover for this with the line of “Alabama won’t shoot 19% from three again,” but Arkansas State shot 21% on 28 attempts and missed 13 free throws. Pretty concerning to me that Alabama gave up a 56% hit rate on twos and failed to generate any real havoc defensively. McNeese was honestly pretty middling versus South Dakota State, but they remain unusually talented and could plausibly be frisky here.
NCAAW: #62 FGCU at #66 Columbia (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Just a really, really good game between two 12-seed hopefuls in March’s NCAA Tournament. Highly recommend getting to know the Columbia backcourt of Kitty Henderson and Riley Weiss, as they can shoot the lights out.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #68 Drake at #38 Creighton (-8.5), 7 PM ET, Flo Sports. Is there a phrase less enjoyable in college athletics than “get to Flo Sports?” No disrespect to Nick Lorensen, who does good work, but hearing that phrase makes me ponder how much better life would be without streaming services. Maybe.
#114 Yale at #11 Purdue (-17), 8 PM ET, BTN. For all the fear and loathing of Purdue’s wobbly opening week I’d argue all of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn have looked excellent. I’d also argue that there is no clear fourth or fifth starter at the moment and I don’t admire Matt Painter attempting to figure that out. I’d be more into this if Purdue wasn’t #1 in the B1G over the last four seasons in non-conference cover rate (61%), though Purdue’s just-okay interior defense might get a test here.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 12
A GAMES
#8 Kansas (-5) vs. #33 Michigan State, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN.
#3 Duke (-7) vs. #30 Kentucky, 9 PM ET, ESPN. These are basically the same game, so they’ll get treated as the same category. There’s a 49% chance that both favorites win in the 2024 Champions Classic, so depending which side of the coin comes up you might get a mild upset here.
I think KU/MSU is the slightly lesser of the two games but perhaps the one with the higher shot of an upset. Kansas has worked a little on shot selection this offseason and the early results are somewhat promising, though they still take way too many midrange twos for my liking…but this is still way better than Michigan State, attempting just 28% of their shots from three. The upshot of that if that MSU’s interior defense was utterly amazing against their two opponents, and I’m a huge believer in MSU’s defense in general. X-factor here is Jase Richardson for State, who’s looked awesome so far on both ends of the court.
Duke/Kentucky is a dual flamethrower. Both offenses looked fabulous in their opening week against overwhelmed opposition, and Duke has been taking (and making) a truly preposterous amount of threes. I favor Duke here for one reason: if they’re not hitting shots, they have a better capacity to generate second chances and avoid turnovers than Kentucky’s roster does. Still, stay up for this one, fellow Eastern Time sufferers.
B GAMES
#48 Villanova (-4) at #112 Saint Joseph’s, 5 PM ET, CBSSN. Rare is the mid-November game that is a non-negotiable Must Win for both head coaches, but here we are.
Villanova under Kyle Neptune is somehow just 16-7 against teams outside of the KenPom top 100. A loss here would be a PR disaster.
NCAAW: #43 Middle Tennessee at #19 Tennessee (-8.5), 6:30 PM ET, SECN+/ESPN+. This is the first reasonable test for a Kim Caldwell Tennessee team that has looked unimpeachably good through four games (two exhibitions, two real). MTSU and Rick Insell have built another super-stout defense, although I worry about their ability to generate consistent points.
C GAMES
#83 FAU at #63 UCF (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The college basketball season needs something like 6,000 games to move itself along night by night, and this is certainly one of them.
NCAAW: #54 Richmond (PK) at #74 Fairfield, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Really fun game between two Tournament hopefuls. Rachel Ullstrom for Richmond is fantastic; she shot 68% on twos and 43% on threes last year, the only person to go 65%/40% last year.
NCAAW: #46 UNLV at #45 Arizona (-2.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Both of these teams had flawless opening weeks. UNLV is the easy favorite in an MWC they should overwhelm, so arguably, this is bigger for an Arizona team that’s a top-50 group but might only be the 8th best team in the Big 12.
#103 Sam Houston State at #24 Baylor (-13), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Baylor hasn’t lost as a double-digit favorite in a non-conference game under Scott Drew since 2018, when they biffed one at home to Stephen F. Austin. But! As a double-digit dog post-COVID, SHSU is 8-3 ATS…though the last three have all been blowouts. Keep an eye on it.
#175 Belmont at #119 Lipscomb (-6), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. I don’t think this gets much national coverage, but growing up in Middle Tennessee, this was a huge rivalry, particularly if your church of choice was loosely affiliated with one of the two schools. The importance these days is a bit diminished but it still matters. 10 of the last 13 of these matchups have been decided by single digits.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 13
B GAMES
NCAAW: #13 Maryland (-11) at #85 Syracuse, 7 PM ET, ACC Network. I think Syracuse might be a rough watch this year, which is honestly expected when you lose a player as good as Dyaisha Fair, but they’re still a challenging road game for a Maryland team coming off of a hard-fought win over old rival Duke.
#116 Troy at #35 Arkansas (-13), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Keep an eye on this. I’m a huge skeptic of Arkansas’s half-court offense, as outlined Friday, and Scott Cross is one of the best defensive coaches at the mid-major level. Troy’s super-aggressive defense could be problematic for an Arkansas team that straight up cannot score consistently once the shot clock dips below 22 seconds…but at the same time, Troy’s defense really doesn’t force that many jumpers. TBD, TBD.
C GAMES
#91 Louisiana Tech (-1) at #108 UMass, 6 PM ET, MSG. Unless you’re going to sign up for a network you’ll never watch again or you live in New York, this game cannot be viewed, which stinks because Louisiana Tech is pretty good and UMass is interesting.
NCAAW: #78 James Madison at #3 Notre Dame (-25.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Unlikely to be much of anything, but hard to turn down watching Hannah Hidalgo play basketball.
NCAAW: #66 Villanova at #48 Princeton (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Two Tournament hopefuls tangling in a true home game, which is sadly a rarity for November.
NCAAW: #80 Norfolk State at #24 Alabama (-11.5), 7 PM ET, SECN+. Norfolk plays a chaotic 3-2 zone defense that forced the third-most turnovers in college basketball last year and should be in line to trounce the MEAC once again.
#73 North Texas at #68 Minnesota (-3), 8 PM ET, BTN+. Unlikely to be fun to watch, but again, two Tournament hopefuls in a game that matters for both parties.
#134 California at #94 Vanderbilt (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Two heavy P5 makeover teams that could use an early-season W to excite their fanbase.
#191 UT Arlington at #55 USC (-15), 11 PM ET, BTN. It’s on. USC looks frankly pretty bad so far? Getting smoked on the boards by Idaho State is a bad look.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14
A GAME
NCAAW: #38 Creighton at #8 Kansas State (-11), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN2. If you’re like me and you’re really into player-versus-player battles this is your night. Lauren Jensen for Creighton is a super-dangerous shooter that dropped 23 in their first game of the year and is capable of 30+ at any time, while Kansas State’s Ayoka Lee is one of the five best players in the nation when healthy. Here’s hoping she finally is, because it’s been a rough journey for her.
B GAME
#67 Arizona State vs. #71 Grand Canyon (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I’ve been advised by my legal counsel that I cannot tell you to root for both of these teams to lose, so do with that what you will. If nothing else, both are extremely entertaining to watch and capable of a full self-immolation.
NCAAW: #36 California (-1) at #57 Gonzaga, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Cal had a fabulous opening week against three Quad 4 teams, smashing each with ease and looking dominant on both ends of the court. Gonzaga got smoked on the road by Stanford, which isn’t inherently a shameful thing, but through two games they’ve looked alarmingly wobbly on defense. They need a win here bad to aid their resume.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #90 Arizona State vs. #70 Grand Canyon (-2), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. The opener to the men’s game is interesting in its own right, though with the budget they’ve got GCU really should be winning these games by 10+.
NCAAW: #23 Vanderbilt (-5.5) at #63 USF, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. If Vanderbilt wants to be taken more seriously this year, which is their aim, Shea Ralph has gotta improve on a 12-23 road record (5-22 versus top-75 opponents) over the last 3+ seasons.
#133 Northern Iowa at #80 Wichita State (-8), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. More interesting ten years ago, and post-COVID, Ben Jacobson is 12-16 ATS as a road dog. Still: useful for both.
#49 LSU at #51 Kansas State (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. I think these are two bad basketball teams that have bad offenses and have been bailed out by 3PT luck so far to get to 2-0.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15
I’ll be in Richmond, VA. Send restaurant recommendations.
A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
#6 Alabama at #11 Purdue (-2), 7 PM ET, Peacock. This is a serious test of the power of home-court advantage. Nate Oats does a lot of great things on the court, but one of them oddly isn’t winning as a road dog; he’s 8-10 ATS. (Worth noting that he’s gone 12-5-1 towards the over, though, so expect points.) Matt Painter as a single-digit home fave post-COVID, meanwhile, is 16-2 straight-up with the two losses coming by a combined nine points. Winning at Mackey, even as an elite team, is really hard to do.
This is a strange game that almost boils down to which strength beats which weakness most frequently. Purdue should have a serious edge down low, as even with Cliff Omoruyi at center this year Alabama’s still giving up an ugly hit rate at the rim. On the other end, you won’t catch anyone rating out Purdue’s interior protection very highly, and Alabama should be able to score with high frequency in the paint. Basically, which team blinks first?
Likewise, who gets more production on the perimeter? You’d lean Alabama, obviously, but Purdue has moved the ball wonderfully thus far and has created a lot of high-quality threes. I don’t think Alabama can go pure drop coverage here but they may have to to stop the bleeding at the rim. Fascinating game.
A GAMES
NCAAW: #2 UConn (-14.5) vs. #29 North Carolina, 6 PM ET, ESPN2. A seriously great night of hoops when this is your second-best game on the books. A full-strength UConn has unsurprisingly looked the part thus far, and while Paige Bueckers is great I’ve been extremely impressed by freshman Sarah Strong. UNC will need huge games from all of Lexi Donarski, Reniya Kelly, and probably 2-3 other players to come out on top.
#21 Ohio State at #17 Texas A&M (-4), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Lot of hype for these two, some of it slightly earned. Ohio State could complete a very funny sweep of the two most self-serious schools in Texas, but I’d argue A&M needs this win way more. An embarrassing opening night implosion against UCF is exactly what Buzz Williams didn’t need when he’s already got a little heat.
B GAMES
#50 TCU at #29 Michigan (-6), 6 PM ET, FS1. Credit to both coaches, sincerely, for playing a non-conference game with reasonable stakes AT ONE OF THE TEAMS’ HOME ARENAS. IS THAT SO MUCH TO ASK, WAKE FOREST?
NCAAW: #32 Texas A&M at #20 West Virginia (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The best hire of 2023-24 WBB was Mark Kellogg at WVU, who basically revitalized a dead-ish program overnight and nearly beat Iowa in the Round of 32. For a follow-up, it looks like they have a top-5 defense in the nation that has forced 42.9% and 49.5% TO% rates from overwhelmed opponents thus far. Disgusting, and I tip my virtual cap.
#100 UAB at #107 High Point (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Underwhelmed by UAB thus far, but they can recover with a nice road win at a tough HPU team. Points!
#7 Arizona (-3) at #40 Wisconsin, 9 PM ET, Peacock. This feels very similar to Tennessee/Wisconsin a year ago, where the clearly better team is on the road and should keep the home foe at bay but an upset wouldn’t be surprising at all. Mostly this is a chance to see if a bizarre opening week trend holds: Wisconsin is getting outscored by an average of 6 points in the first 10 minutes of games and outscoring opponents by an average of 28.3 points in the final 30.
C GAMES
#62 SMU (-1) at #104 Butler, 7 PM ET, FS2. If I were still heavily posting on X, the Everything App, I’m sure someone would yell at me for not including this. I’d like an apology.
#89 Loyola Chicago at #86 Princeton (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Garden-variety good game between two mid-majors with serious March hopes, and a great battle between an excellent offense (Princeton) and excellent defense (Loyola).
NCAAW: #113 Murray State at #5 LSU (-27.5), 8 PM ET, SECN+. Early chance to see what the post-Angel Reese era might hold.
#75 West Virginia at #25 Pittsburgh (-9), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Rivalry! I like rivalries.
#141 Ohio at #37 Memphis (-15), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. I’m just going to tell you the following and walk away: Penny Hardaway is 10-22 ATS as a double-digit favorite post-COVID.
#14 Marquette at #31 Maryland (-2), 8 PM ET, FS1. Putting this in the C Games category is a little disrespectful but frankly, this is lower-stakes for Marquette. Marquette doesn’t have much to gain with Purdue looming on the 19th. Maryland needs this, though.
#74 Georgia at #92 Georgia Tech (-1), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. I won’t watch this, but you might.
#42 Iowa (-9) vs. #101 Washington State, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. Game played in Moline, Illinois. What happened to shame?
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16
I’ll be running in the Richmond Marathon, so wish me luck. AKA: no analysis this weekend.
B GAMES
#57 Wake Forest at #53 Xavier (-4), 12 PM ET, FS1. Hey, both of you teams badly need this win. Make it interesting.
NCAAW: #41 Miami FL (-1.5) at #61 Florida, 12 PM ET, SECN+. Just a good in-state game between two rosters we really don’t know much about at this time.
#78 Colorado State vs. #61 Ole Miss (-3), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. For some reason, this is being played at the home of the Memphis Hustle in Southaven. I try not to be mean on here much but I truly find this Ole Miss team despicable to watch, which was entirely predictable based on the awful roster construction. They should’ve lost to Grambling and have a roster completely disinterested in passing a basketball.
NCAAW: #35 Louisville (-2) at #62 Kentucky, 6 PM ET, SECN+. Very similar to Miami/UF, but I think Louisville is a little underrated at the moment. A closer-than-anticipated loss to UCLA and a blowout of a decent Southern Indiana team is interesting to me.
C GAMES
#66 Notre Dame (-1) at #97 Georgetown, 1 PM ET, NBC. Good test here for how real or not real both teams’ supposed improvements on 2023-24 are.
NCAAW: #65 Columbia at #66 Villanova (-2.5), 2 PM ET, Flo Sports. Real credit must go to Villanova, who’s willingly elected to play both of the Ivy League favorites in non-conference play in the same week. A 1-1 split would be a good result.
NCAAW: #74 Fairfield at #52 Oklahoma State (-5.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. I think Oklahoma State might be really, really fun to watch this year. Great offense and potentially bad defense makes for high watchability.
#76 South Carolina at #41 Indiana (-7), 3 PM ET, Peacock. This is a horrendously built Indiana team and an incredibly talented Indiana team. Excited to see which one wins out each night in their eternal struggle.
#87 Santa Clara at #56 Nevada (-7), 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Nevada looks just as good as they did last year, which is exciting news. Less exciting is Santa Clara doing Santa Clara things: following that awesome Saint Louis win up with a loss to an annoying Arizona State team. C’mon.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 17
A GAME
NCAAW: #9 NC State (-1) at #17 TCU, 3 PM ET, ESPN. Truly wish I could be at this one, but alas. I love watching both of these teams play basketball. Each has three legitimate stars: Zoe Brooks/Aziaha James/Madison Hayes for NCSU, Madison Conner/Sedona Prince/Hailey Van Lith (yep) for TCU. If those cancel each other out, it comes down to depth, and I think I believe in TCU’s a little more…but I don’t know yet. Really good basketball game you all should watch instead of Colts/Jets or whatever.
B GAMES
#58 New Mexico at #15 St. John’s (-9), 12 PM ET, FS1. RICHARD VERSUS RICK. FINALLY!!!! We finally got the meme game, baby. It took too long. Something of note to me in this game specifically: Richard the younger is 13-8-1 ATS as a road dog at New Mexico, including 8-5 ATS as a 6+ point underdog.
#70 Nebraska vs. #43 Saint Mary’s (-3), 1 PM ET, BTN. What is it about the Sanford Pentagon? What’s going on there? If there’s some sort of grand national conspiracy, it’s whatever is keeping the Sioux Falls tourism department afloat at this insane, inexplicable level. Anyway, this should be entertaining.
NCAAW: #14 Stanford (-0.5) at #25 Indiana, 2 PM ET, FS1. This goes a long way towards stemming the Worried About Indiana thought that’s bubbled through opening week for me if they can beat a good Stanford team at home.
NCAAW: #26 Iowa (-6) at #68 Drake, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Fabulous, fabulous showdown between a pair of elite bucket-getters: Lucy Olsen for Iowa and Katie Dinnibier for Drake. Lock in.
NCAAW: #12 Duke (-7.5) at #58 South Dakota State, 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN. One of the nicest things about women’s basketball compared to men’s: this game exists. Can you imagine Duke, or the current 12th-ranked team at KenPom (Texas Tech), traveling to South Dakota to play a true road game? No, you cannot.
C GAMES
#26 Clemson at #45 Boise State (-2), 1:30 PM ET, CBSSN. Okay, so perhaps I was a bit hasty, because it is objectively very cool of Clemson to have scheduled this game.
#119 Lipscomb at #129 Western Kentucky (-3), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Good test of Road Lennie Acuff here. He’s 18-14 ATS as a road dog the last three years and is 6-7 straight-up as a single-digit underdog.
NCAAW: #16 Ohio State (-8) at #73 Belmont, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Same as Duke/South Dakota State but slightly less interesting for me. Glad it exists.
#20 Mississippi State (-7) vs. #65 Utah, 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Normally I’d look at this game and say ‘no thanks,’ but did you know Mississippi State dropped 198 points in two games this past week? The opponents sucked, but…is Mississippi State fun? Oh God. Utah, don’t let that happen, fellas.
#95 Liberty at #111 Charleston (-2), 4 PM ET, YouTube. Well, hey, it’s fun. What more could you want?