Week 3 Watchlist: Paint a Picture That Creates a Scene
Not quite Feast Week but a week of moderate-to-severe feasts
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
I’ll be honest: I got nothing left in me essay-wise, because I just ran a marathon Saturday and am still pretty brain-dead. You should re-read what I published Friday, though, because it seems like it’s caught the attention of more people than usual.
While I have you, I advise signing up for my friend Trilly Donovan’s Discord. I’ve mostly left Twitter behind and am posting in-game thoughts there now, though, yes, I can be found on the new site…the one you may have heard of…yes, that one. I don’t post there very much as I’m unconvinced social media has much use anymore, but Burner Ball functions kind of like a message board and peak Twitter circa 2013 all in one, so I like it.
Anyway, here is the Watchlist. As a reminder, we have a new scoring system this year to simplify things a bit. The A/B/C scale is here.
A GAMES are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ GAME every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
B GAMES are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
C GAMES are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
We hope to never get to D or F GAMES this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All D2/D3 lines are from Massey Ratings. NEW! All lines for women’s games are via Bart Torvik. Watchlists are always free, so subscribe here to avoid missing one.
P.S.: I went to a VCU home game versus Loyola (MD) on Saturday night. VCU’s fans, even for a weak opponent, absolutely lived up to the hype. I wish every program had a Peppas.
Onward:
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 18
3:55 in the marathon. Sub-4. I’d like to thank the haters and losers. And the city of Richmond, which might be the single most overlooked Great City in America? Anyway.
A GAME
#3 Gonzaga (-7) at #52 San Diego State, 10 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Can you imagine this being a conference game? I think I’d have tears in my eyes 24/7, because it would be beautiful and would make all the realignment garbage worthwhile. Instead, this is merely a match of the greatest mid-major to ever live versus one of the greatest mid-majors to ever live. As would be the case in every battle between these two, it comes down to pace for me. Can Gonzaga control this game in transition? If not, San Diego State’s sludge-ball could reign supreme in an upset.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #60 Seton Hall (-0.5) at #85 Cincinnati, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This one is a good test for how real a potential leap is for SHU. Through three games, Torvik with all priors removed has them as a top-35 team with a top-10 defense. This is despite shooting 22% from three. Keep an eye on them.
#68 North Texas (-1) at #110 McNeese State, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Little worried about McNeese. They’ve played good competition but a 64% 2PT% allowed is horrific and genuinely not what I expected. We’ll see how they deal with a UNT team that looks pretty solid.
C GAMES
#196 Miami (OH) at #30 Michigan (-19), 6 PM ET, Big Ten Network. Calm down, I’ve recommended you worse.
NCAAW: #73 Grand Canyon at #27 Oregon (-10.5), 9 PM ET, BTN+. Good test for both, particularly Oregon, who has real rebound aspirations after a horrific 2023-24.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 19
A GAME
#12 Purdue at #21 Marquette (-2), 9 PM ET, FS1. I’m a bit with Gary Parrish here: I respect a good building. Fiserv is a good building, all things considered. In the Shaka Era - Shakera? - Marquette is 46-6 at home straight-up and 30-22 ATS. I’m worried on Purdue’s behalf because this could be a turnover margin blowout in Marquette’s favor. If so I don’t know how Purdue wins this beyond shooting 46% from three again, but hey, seen stranger. I’m excited for this.
B GAME
D3: #1 Hampden-Sydney (-2.5) at #17 Christopher Newport, 7 PM ET, streaming. This one is a nod to the boys at D3 Datacast, who keep KenPom-like numbers for Division 3 men’s and women’s hoops. This is just a very good basketball game between two title hopefuls. H-S has been fantastic offensively thus far but Newport’s defense has been excellent, making for a great battle of D3 elites.
C GAMES
#127 Lipscomb at #22 Kentucky (-17), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I have real interest in this game for a couple of reasons: I’m not 100% trusting of top 10 Kentucky yet (the +15% 3PT delta is a thing), but it would also be very funny if they beat Lipscomb by 30+ OR lost outright after Arkansas beat them by 16.
NCAAW: #155 Bowling Green at #18 West Virginia (-26), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Not many reasons to turn down watching Mark Kellogg’s team turn an overwhelmed opponent into dust for the first 10-15 minutes.
#11 Cincinnati (-15) at #186 Northern Kentucky, 7 PM ET, FanDuel Sports Ohio. Yes, seriously. FanDuel Sports Ohio and nowhere else, per each team’s website. A shame, because I love this inter-metro crossover that should happen more than it does.
#145 Samford at #41 Michigan State (-15), 8 PM ET, Peacock. I’m standing alone on Michigan State Island, staring at a 20% 3PT% that won’t hold and a schedule-adjusted +8.4 rebound/TO margin per 100, waiting for any living person to join me. Is it you? Unlikely, though a blowout here would help my flagging case.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20
A GAME
#25 Illinois at #10 Alabama (-4), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Alright, it’s not a true road game, but it’s in Birmingham so whatever. This is a road game. I have two huge questions:
How real is Illinois’ improved defense? It’s come against three tomato cans of various sizes, but Illinois sits 8th in eFG% allowed, 66th% in DREB%, and has largely stopped fouling. Opponents are shooting 41% from two, and Underwood’s standard denial of three-point attempts is as alive as it ever was. I haven’t seen a ton offensively I’ve loved so far but the defense is intriguing.
How real is Alabama’s potential step back offensively? This sounds absurd, sure. But think about it this way: through four games, adjusted for schedule difficulty, Alabama ranks 88th in eFG%, 68th in TO%, and 222nd in OREB%. Last year’s ranks, adjusted for schedule: 2nd, 142nd, 17th. I don’t think Alabama will shoot 31% from three forever, obviously, but I wonder if last year’s just too hard to touch.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #23 Iowa (-6) vs. #48 Kansas, 7 PM ET, Big Ten Network. Pumped for this one. Iowa, how real is your product after a very good start post-Caitlin Clark? Kansas, how real is your hope to make three Tournaments in four years for the first time since the 1990s?
NCAAW: #55 George Mason (-1) at #83 Wake Forest, 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Speaking of real/not real there’s this. George Mason is 4-0 and has looked very good while doing so in their aim to make their first NCAA Tournament in program history. A win here would go a long, long way.
NCAAW: #38 Auburn at #27 Oregon (-4.5), 9 PM ET, BTN+. Great evaluation spot here. It hasn’t been against great competition, but Auburn’s defense has been nuts so far: #1 in eFG% allowed, #2 in TO% forced. Oregon never turns the ball over and has looked like a top-20 team so far.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-16.5) at #52 Clemson, 5 PM ET, ESPN2. I highly doubt Clemson can do anything here, but you watch these for South Carolina’s excellence more than anything. It’s a weird comp but they remind me of peak German national team football or perhaps Manchester City?
NCAAW: #22 Iowa State (-7.5) at #76 Northern Iowa, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. You know about Audi Crooks but you really need to know Addy Brown for ISU: 129 ORtg on 25% USG so far and a +19.7 (!) BPM.
#113 Purdue Fort Wayne at #34 Penn State (-13), 7 PM ET, BTN+. Are you paying attention to Penn State yet? Three wins over tomato cans and a fourth over future 15th-place ACC finisher Virginia Tech, but at no point in any of the four games were they seriously threatened. They’re giving off strong 2022-23 Penn State vibes.
#146 Towson (-1) at #204 Nicholls, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Nicholls gave New Mexico a strong run for their money on opening night, while Towson did the same with Saint Mary’s.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21
A GAME
#13 Baylor (-1) vs. #17 St. John’s, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Well hell, what a game. And we’re gonna play it in the Bahamas, but you’re gonna deal with it. I’ve got a real question in both directions here. Does St. John’s have anyone that can consistently handle Norchad Omier? Does Baylor have enough on the perimeter to check the excellent backcourt of SJU, particularly RJ Luis who’s looked like the best scoring option thus far? I trust exactly seven players on both rosters, so this comes out to which star(s) have the better games, I’d guess. I hate thinking of games this way, but in this case it feels like a close game favors St. John’s and a blowout heavily favors Baylor.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #63 Belmont at #12 Duke (-14), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Fun fun fun for the summertime blues. Belmont can space the court in a way Duke simply cannot, which has me interested here, but Duke is going to have an obvious and gigantic advantage in the paint. But: if Belmont comes out hot from three, watch out. They can absolutely hang with teams like this.
#39 Nevada (-6) vs. #88 Vanderbilt, 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU. Really intriguing battle of two vastly different philosophies on both ends. Nevada has had tremendous rim gravity thus far but really doesn’t rely on threes much. Vanderbilt’s taken 42% of all shots from three with 38% (!) coming above the break, per CBB Analytics. On the defensive side Vandy has been excellent at forcing a lot of 6-footers instead of true rim attempts. I love styles-make-fights games, here’s one for you.
#9 Texas Tech (-12) vs. #98 Saint Joseph’s, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. On one side, you have one of the best coaches in America in Grant McCasland. On the other, you have Billy Lange. I wonder who will win.
#6 Tennessee (-11) vs. #77 Virginia, 9:30 PM ET, CBSSN. So: Tennessee has played four games this year. Three were against Quad 4 teams, but one was at Louisville. They’ve posted 2PT% of 63%, 59%, 73%, and 72% through four games. Even adjusted for competition, CBB Analytics has Tennessee #4 in the nation in eFG%. The only two times they’ve ever finished top 40 in that stat (2005-06, 2018-19) they’ve had a top-10 offense. It could be nothing, and I’m personally holding out to see how they handle further competition, but…could Tennessee’s offense be really good? Maybe!
#38 Memphis (-1) vs. #54 San Francisco, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. This is simply a very good game that will help determine how real each surprisingly solid early start has been. I think I trust USF like 2% more?
C GAMES
#47 Miami FL (-8) vs. #124 Drake, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. 2023 Round of 64 rematch. Big spot for Ben McCollum and crew; seems notable in whatever way that Drake’s three clear best players were all at Northwest Missouri last year.
#92 Oklahoma State vs. #80 FAU (-1), 2:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Perfect braindead game. Neither team can play defense whatsoever and both want to play fast. Tune in.
#97 Seton Hall vs. #35 VCU (-7), 5 PM ET, ESPN2. There is a 0% chance that this game, involving these two programs, will be watchable. This is what they’d play in Guantanamo.
#101 Bradley (-4) vs. #153 Texas State, 5:30 PM ET, ESPNU. Annoyed by these two starts so far, particularly Texas State’s. A 12-point road loss to Abilene?
#33 Oregon (-5) at #98 Oregon State, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Oregon REALLY should be 3-1 with an awful home loss to Portland, but they’re not. They still should have a real advantage here, but my #1 rule in games like this is that you can never, ever underestimate hate. Oregon State hates these guys.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22
A GAME
Baha Mar Championship Under Certain Circumstances, 9:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. If this is Tennessee versus either Baylor or St. John’s, it’s an A-grade game. If Virginia is involved, it isn’t. That simple. For watchlist purposes, I hate this time of year, because it is impossible to get things correctly listed, but whatever. Not my problem.
#4 Duke (-1) at #16 Arizona, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN2. This is the men’s game of the week. I am thrilled it exists, but let me get on my soapbox: why is this game a 10:30 PM tip on a Friday? Women’s CBB has two marquee games this weekend. Both tip at 4 PM ET, and the better of the two is on NBC. I know these two conferences have TV deals with Disney/ESPN. You couldn’t shove this on ABC at 9 PM ET in place of What Would You Do? on a Friday night?
Anyway, the actual game here presents a serious opportunity for one Jon Scheyer to quiet the doubters a bit. Duke should have the first-shot interior advantage defensively, which is unusual when Arizona is involved, and I trust Duke to generate the highest-quality shots overall. But Duke has yet to hunt much in the way of 1-on-1 matchups, which is surprising to me when you have Cooper Freaking Flagg on your roster. Can they isolate him here to gain an advantage? If not, Duke’s old foe - getting bogged down with their half-court offense - could rise up yet again and give Arizona a real edge in a tight game.
B GAMES
#19 Pittsburgh (-3) vs. #40 LSU, 2:30 PM ET, CBSSN. These two teams have risen a combined 28 spots (18 Pitt, 10 LSU) in KenPom thus far through two weeks. I don’t trust either nearly as much as these rankings imply, but someone is legally required to win the game, and that alone is interesting.
NCAAW: #36 Nebraska at #40 Creighton (-1.5), 5 PM ET, Flo Sports. God, I love when a good basketball game that I would like to watch is hidden on some idiotic streaming service that four people on Earth pay for. It makes me so happy!
#46 Iowa (-1) vs. #48 Utah State, 8 PM ET, Big Ten Network. Big test for Shot Volume as a metric here. If it holds, Utah State should win this game by double digits, because Iowa has failed to garner much of any real advantage against weak competition.
#27 Mississippi State (-2) at #72 SMU, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. It’s very hard to get marquee home games when you’re Mississippi State, so hat-tip to Chris Jans for going and scheduling tough ones away from home. SMU just lost an ugly one to Butler but they’ve been excellent in the turnover department so far and State might have a real problem with shot volume in general, which is unusual.
Legends Classic If It’s Texas/Texas Tech, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Again: you try and do watchlists when this is the thing you have to account for. I truly hope this is the game, but you can’t discount a potential Syracuse or Saint Joe’s upset.
NCAAW: #10 Oklahoma (-7.5) at #50 UNLV, 9:30 PM ET, Mountain West Network. This beats Flo Sports because you can watch MWN for free on their website. Probably not ideal for a conference’s bottom line but great for me, the protagonist of history. If you like extraordinarily fast (Oklahoma) or extraordinarily scrappy (UNLV) basketball, you will like this.
C GAMES
Presumably Something in the Myrtle Beach or Charleston Tournaments. FWIW the best possible game in the Charleston one involves two of Miami, VCU, and Nevada. We’ll see if the tournament can give us such a thing. If it does, it belongs in the B Games category on either weekend day.
#29 Wisconsin (-4) vs. #57 UCF, 5 PM ET, CBSSN. Nothing says you have to watch this. It’s fine. Just think of something else.
The Other Baha Mar Game, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Would something like Virginia/Baylor be bad? Of course not. It’s pretty decent, though you wouldn’t move heaven and earth for it.
NCAAW: #62 Florida at #15 Florida State (-14.5), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Expected tempo here is 76 possessions, which tells you all you need to know about the two teams involved. Points!
#66 Nebraska at #18 Creighton (-10), 8 PM ET, FS1. Another in the in-state series that usually provides a lot of three-point attempts, if not that many makes.
NCAAW: #38 Auburn at #33 California (-3.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Another test of how real/not real the Auburn improvement is. Also a good test of if Cal is as top-20ish as they’ve looked.
NCAAW: #57 Saint Joseph’s at #31 Utah (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Utah once again projects to have a gigantic advantage in shot volume but looks like they’ll take a serious step back on defense.
#14 North Carolina (-15) at #177 Hawaii, 12:30 AM ET (!), ESPN2. I mean, serious credit to UNC for scheduling this game. Not sure why you would, other than Maui timezone prep, but I tip the cap.
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23
THE A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #3 Notre Dame (-3) at #7 USC, 4 PM ET, NBC. This beats out South Carolina/UCLA on Sunday for one reason: offense. I love or really like all four teams involved, but for me personally, Hannah Hidalgo vs. JuJu Watkins does it more for me than the South Carolina democratic battering ram versus UCLA. You may feel differently, but hey, that’s the beauty of the watchlist.
This is the rare elite vs. elite battle that is also a styles make fights battle. Notre Dame wants to run and run fast; they’re currently in the 99th-percentile nationally in transition usage, with Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles unsurprisingly leading the break most frequently. USC’s defense rates in the 4th-percentile in terms of transition possessions allowed, meaning that almost no one in college basketball gets back and forces a half-court game better than they do. Notre Dame is excellent at both, but their shots in transition are of higher quality.
USC wants to do the same, but this is all about their P&R offense versus Notre Dame’s P&R defense. Teams have tried to put ND in a blender in the P&R so far this year to zero success. Watkins is unbelievable with the ball in her hands, but when she finds open shooters, USC has struggled to take advantage. Non-Watkins Trojans are just 31.6% from three this year. That won’t work in a game USC badly needs to hit threes in to stay tight with Notre Dame. I’m really, really pumped for this.
A GAME
D2: #10 Northern Michigan at #5 Minnesota-Duluth (-8.5), 5 PM ET, streaming. I won’t blame you for not following D2 hoops, but this is a banger. Both teams’ offenses actually play into what each defense allows: NMU wants more in the midrange and perimeter in general, while Duluth wants to get to the paint at all costs. One player for each you should know: Sam Privet for NMU (currently shooting an insane 76% from the field), Charlie Katona for Duluth (15 PPG, 61% from two).
B GAMES
#21 Marquette (-6) vs. #65 Georgia, 11 AM ET, Flo Sports. I’m not paying for this service, no matter how badly the teams involved want me to do so. As much of a hater as I am for Mike White, I have been impressed somewhat by Georgia, who handled a tricky road battle with Georgia Tech effectively. Marquette is posting an absurd +12.6 turnover margin per 100 possessions right now, which won’t hold but could be very problematic for a UGA team that’s at -3.5.
NCAAW: #39 Georgia Tech (-3) vs. #54 South Dakota State, 9 PM ET, “BallerTV”. Fascinating experiment here, putting two good basketball teams on a website that sounds like Zombo. A quick Google search returns interesting queries.
All questions I’d wonder myself. The X Everything App account suggests that of a makeshift Overtime style thing?
A review of the website lets me know that BallerTV’s mission is to “rapidly expand the spectrum of sports coverage so you’ll never miss a game again.” It’s geared towards youth sports, so here is a story: when I was in middle school, our local rec hoops organizer let our middle school’s team (which I was not on, because I sucked) play in our league. They won the title with ease, but the first game they played was against my team of future newsletter writers and mechanics. They were up 36-4 at halftime and won 52-8 only after our middle school’s HC (a personal friend and running store owner) removed all starters from the game and asked for a running clock. At halftime.
Thanks to BallerTV, if that game gets played in 2024, I could rewatch 12-year-old me getting broken ankles all over again. What a beautiful life we live.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #61 Columbia vs. #26 Indiana (-6.5), 1:30 PM ET, Flo Sports. Torvik says 1:30; Indiana’s website says 4. Either way, fun game that will be watched by 12 people thanks to this idiotic website.
#11 Cincinnati (-9) at #100 Georgia Tech, 2 PM ET, ACC Network. I have to be honest: I can’t imagine watching this over the second half of Ohio State/Indiana, but maybe you will.
NCAAW: #82 Georgia vs. #41 Penn State (-6.5), 2:30 PM ET, Peacock. Well, at least this one’s on a streaming service I do have. Penn State’s offense through five games: 1.11 PPP or higher each time out, 54% eFG% or higher, 39% OREB% or higher. That’ll play, even if their defense looks concerning.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 24
A GAME
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-4) at #5 UCLA, 4 PM ET, FS1. A huge question hanging over this game that affects any read of it: is Kiki Rice ready to go? Rice missed all of UCLA’s first three games with a shoulder injury and returned for just 11 minutes against Arkansas. If she can’t go, UCLA faces a severe backcourt deficit that’s going to be very hard to overcome, and it’s shown in an ugly turnover rate thus far offensively.
If she can go, well, game on. This South Carolina team looks like the best in the nation, but not an all-caps BEST like last year. They look to have taken a minor step back offensively, as MiLaysia Fulwiley and crew are struggling a bit with greater expectations. Is UCLA the team to showcase that for all to see? Maybe. Lauren Betts has been unbelievable so far, and an X-factor could be freshman Elina Aarnisalo, who has played in place of Rice and has been well beyond anyone’s expectations. Very interested in this one because I feel like I don’t have a good read on it.
B GAMES
#17 St. John’s (-7) vs. #65 Georgia, 11 AM ET, CBSSN. Weird that this is happening. It’s in the Bahamas but isn’t part of any tournament. St. John’s is just there and wanted to get an extra game against a live opponent in, I guess?
#37 Maryland (-5) vs. #73 Villanova, 1 PM ET, ESPN. A pair of Year Three coaches that really, really need a win that matters. I enjoy any game with remarkable amounts of nervous energy involved, particularly if I’m a neutral observer. Lock in!
C GAMES
NCAAW: #37 Louisville (-5) vs. #68 South Florida, 1 PM ET, Peacock. Louisville’s Tajianna Roberts through four games: +5.0 PRPG!, +11.8 BPM, 57% 2PT, 43% 3PT. Louisville is 2-2 but might have a star freshman here.
NCAAW: #74 Drake at #22 Iowa State (-14), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. I hope you like great backcourt battles, because Drake’s Katie Dinnibier versus ISU’s Addy Brown is absolutely worth the price of admission.
NCAAW: #86 Cincinnati vs. #65 FGCU (-2), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Officially Concerned about FGCU after losing their head coach a week into the season to the WNBA, which is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard of but does signal American sports’ collective move to European-style moves like this. It sounds insane to us but just this year Manchester United canned a manager a quarter of the way through the season and didn’t even have to ride it out with an interim. They plucked Sporting CP’s guy. Welcome to European NCAA Basketball.
NCAAW: #77 Washington State at #23 Iowa (-14.5), 4 PM ET, BTN. My official unofficial policy is that I root for everyone to be happy other than Ohio State, but man, I am very happy Iowa appears to be good yet again. “It’s just Caitlin!” No it’s not, moron.