Week 5 Watchlist: Fair Play to You
No takes on flags, yes takes on overtime philosophy
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
Friday night, we went to our local high school’s state semifinal football game. The team this year wasn’t all that good but they got hot late and went from 6-4 to a 10-point third quarter lead on an undefeated team before finally running out of steam en route to a 45-34 loss. It was nice and admirable and made me happy to see so many people out supporting both sides.
I say all of this because we got home at 9:30 PM ET or so and Georgia was trailing 17-6 to Georgia Tech. Obviously, as someone who finds SEC football despicable unless it fits my personal narrative, I was rooting for Georgia Tech. It went to overtime, then to double overtime, then because we had driven back from Nashville that morning and had a pretty full day, I fell asleep.
I woke up at about 1 AM ET to see I had missed eight ‘overtimes’. I am not describing these as real overtimes, because what NCAA football now considers ‘overtimes’ are not real football. It’s two-point conversion roulette that is as real as a hockey shootout or a 90-minute soccer game that goes straight to penalties instead of extra time.
1) THIS IS NOT REAL FOOTBALL. I cannot say this enough. Imagine if, using this logic, college basketball had one real five-minute overtime. After that overtime concluded, if the teams were still tied, they would go to a free throw contest, shooting back and forth until someone misses. That’s what two-point roulette feels like. It is a horrid, horrid way to end a football game.
2) The idea of these as ‘overtimes’ is ruining the sport’s history books. It is utterly ridiculous to me, the concept of eight overtime UGA/GT being ranked ahead of 74-72 or 71-63 in any record book. These teams had to work to continue scoring. Georgia and Georgia Tech combined to go 3-for-12 on coin-flip plays as each team got handed a fresh timeout and Joe Tessitore’s horniness became overwhelming as Georgia increasingly got closer to a victory.
3) There has yet to be a study that shows the impact, positive or negative, of this on the nebulous ‘player health’ aspect of eliminating overtime play. This was the supposed reason behind the overtime changes in the first place. In theory, I am all for anything that makes players more safe, as football is a very dangerous sport that takes a lot out of anyone physically.
But. When the NCAA first changed the overtime rules post-74-72 in 2019, this was the general consensus from those involved.
All fine. Here is my question: where is your study showing that overtime is inherently worse or more dangerous than the first four quarters? If you’re this concerned about ‘too many plays’, then you would make the game as long as the high school game I attended on Friday night, which was 48 minutes. The NCAA has already moved to make games more NFL-like, eliminating stoppages after first downs (mostly) and moving to other various NFL rules to make the games move faster with fewer plays. We even have a two-minute timeout (NOT WARNING!) that does nothing beyond adding a new commercial break.
All I am saying is this: if you’re going to continue to realign until kingdom comes, if you’re going to continue to add more and more ads, if you’re going to continue to make the actual quality of play worse…well, at least give the people an overtime format that makes sense. Perhaps the one that worked just fine for 20+ years. I know this is very Old Man Yells at Cloud but I feel like I’m in the right! Sorry!
Alternately! If you’re this upset about ‘too many plays’, just adopt the NFL format: 10-minute overtime period, then a tie. We lived with ties just fine for over 100 years. I think we could probably live with them again if we had to.
Anyway, here is the Watchlist. As a reminder, we have a new scoring system this year to simplify things a bit. The A/B/C scale is here.
A GAMES are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ GAME every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
B GAMES are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
C GAMES are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
We hope to never get to D or F GAMES this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All D2/D3 lines are from Massey Ratings. NEW! All lines for women’s games are via Bart Torvik. Watchlists are always free, so subscribe here to avoid missing one.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 2
If you have to skip a day of hoops, well, here you go. It’s the lowest-volume day of basketball since Election Day.
A GAME
None.
B GAME
None.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #66 St. John’s at #42 Penn State (-6.5), 7 PM ET, BTN. It’s not much, but it’s interesting. Penn State’s 6’6” center Gracie Merkle has been unreal: 117 ORtg on 37% (!) USG%, 65% on twos, a 28% OREB%, and an 11% Block%.
#103 Washington State at #36 Nevada (-12), 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Nevada has looked like a top-25 team so far, though their 47% hit rate from three is obviously not going to hold. Does that revert here against Frisky Wazzu?
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 3
A GAME
#12 Kentucky at #25 Clemson (-2), 9:30 PM ET, ESPN. Wildcats versus Tigers? Folks, sounds like my household when Cedric is ready to rip at 4 AM!
This is a fun and great game because I cannot quite figure out how I feel about either team. Obviously I should feel better than I do about Kentucky, but I’m cautious because 1) They’re not gonna hold teams to 24% from three for an entire season 2) While also shooting 38% from deep 3) Which is the exact same start to the season 2023-24 BYU had. Clemson I can’t fully be in or out on just yet because 1) Shooting 40% from three but 2) Blowing teams out on the boards and have beaten San Francisco/Penn State.
But hey, I like points, you like points, and this game should bring points. Plus, this is another chance to see what Underdog Mark Pope can do. As an underdog at BYU/UK he’s 23-16-1 ATS, though with the note that the most common outcomes are 5-7 point losses. One area of note here: I still haven’t been thrilled with UK’s P&R defense. While Clemson doesn’t chase that a ton, it’s still a feature of their offense and could be a difference-maker.
B GAMES
#9 Cincinnati (-3) at #61 Villanova, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. As funny as Villanova’s complete crash-landing out of the gate has been, they’re also a team well overdue for better results. I have a guy at Burner Ball that runs a system similar to Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy tool; with an expected W-L of 6-2, no one in America has had worse luck than Villanova in November. If that’s meaningful we’ll see, but this is the classic over-correction game on both sides. Cincinnati has a +23% (!) eFG% delta, which, uh, not sustainable.
#65 Northwestern at #47 Iowa (-5), 7 PM ET, Peacock. You’re gonna get your Big Ten slop and you’re going to LIKE IT. Fun test here of if Iowa’s improved defense is real, which I do not think it is.
#90 Santa Clara at #81 McNeese State (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. A 4-3 record doesn’t have me out on McNeese yet; that roster is not going to shoot 27% from three forever, even if I often wonder what it is the offensive plan seems to be. Santa Clara’s faceplant after opening night was regrettably very predictable.
#22 Michigan at #29 Wisconsin (-2), 9 PM ET, Peacock. A great start to the season for Dusty May and crew only marred by a tight loss to a decent Wake Forest team. Your reward for making it through November with one loss: opening December at the Trohl Center. If Michigan wins they should plant a huge flag at half-court.
#41 Ole Miss at #39 Louisville (-4), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. I’ll admit fault on Ole Miss if they do well in SEC play, because they did well-ish in non-con last year only to blow it come January. I think that this is too tall a task for them on paper and I genuinely think Louisville may be a top-25 team at year’s end, but we’ll see. Underdog Beard is surprisingly just 25-36 ATS at his three P5 stops.
C GAMES
#43 Arkansas (-3) at #92 Miami FL, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I think that Arkansas is sweating plenty because they had (unreasonably) high preseason expectations that won’t be met, but Miami is in an objectively worse spot. After bombing out in 2023-24 the miracle Elite Eight/Final Four runs of the two seasons prior look like flukes. This is a must-win to keep people interested, because when this starts off the following three-game stretch:
You need wins. Bad. You have to go at least 1-2 here, and arguably, you might have to go 2-1 to make people care again.
#114 Lipscomb (-1) at #173 Chattanooga, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Interesting battle here: Lipscomb’s offense (339th in Block%) versus Chattanooga’s defense (352nd in defensive Block%).
#73 Notre Dame at #45 Georgia (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Boy, this is certainly a game that is on television.
#100 Syracuse at #2 Tennessee (-20), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. Hand up: I live here and completely forgot this game was happening until 9:45 AM Sunday morning. I imagine that says more about Syracuse than Tennessee.
#82 Bradley (-2) at #147 Southern Illinois, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. I think the MVC is the first team to begin conference play, which makes this pretty interesting. Not sure who to trust yet, though Drake has been fantastic.
#34 BYU (-5) at #97 Providence, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Because I was also curious: over the last ten years there’s no real “BYU sucks on the road” thing for longer road trips. More or less right at 50% ATS regardless of what filter you throw at it. Kim English…I would win this game, my friend.
#95 Wake Forest at #27 Texas A&M (-12), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Sure, Wake Forest looks like hot garbage. But have you pondered that Buzz Williams is 15-22 ATS as a double-digit favorite at A&M?
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 4
A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
#1 Auburn at #4 Duke (-2), 9:15 PM ET, ESPN. I hear you like fun facts, so here’s one: this is the first true home court for a top-5 versus top-5 KenPom game since February 15, 2023.
Hopefully this one’s a less ugly watch.
Auburn has unquestionably looked like the best team in the nation, but even the seemingly unflappables every year have areas where they can be attacked. Auburn’s backcourt of Denver Jones/Tahaad Pettiford/JP Pegues all grade out as Just Guys defensively, and while Johni Broome is still a national POY contender and Dylan Cardwell is an unbelievable defender, we have to face the facts. This is a road game at Duke and you’re probably gonna catch a few foul calls you don’t think you should. Can the backcourt step up to compensate that?
On Duke’s side, this is about one thing: how well can you use 6’9” point guard Cooper Flagg? He’s been the team’s best player thus far, which isn’t a crime but is perhaps not as impressive as it sounds because Flagg has struggled with efficiency through his first month. If he’s able to get to the rim consistently at all in this game, Duke is in business. People seem very ready to give up on Duke through one month where they lost neutral-site games to two top-10 teams; spiritually this feels like their Get-Back Game.
A GAMES
#10 Alabama at #16 North Carolina (-2), 7:15 PM ET, ESPN. I am noting a lot of serious CONCERN and FEAR over North Carolina’s three losses so far. Is North Carolina in TROUBLE???? | Field of 68 Podcast | Cooper Flagg 2K Face Reveal style videos are all about the CONCERN. My proposal: losing to #7, #1, and #37 on road or neutral courts is a reasonable and fine outcome for one of the 20 best teams to have in a 30+ game season.
NCAAW: #15 Florida State at #25 Tennessee (PK), 7:15 PM ET, SEC Network. I am likely to be at this game, so analysis for others will be limited. This is the first real test for a Tennessee team that has looked like a frightening unit offensively thus far and very dodgy on defense, which is about what I thought would happen in Year One of Kim Caldwell. FSU has been basically the same: 12th offensively, 59th defensively with all priors removed. The Torvik projection for this game is 85-84, and boy does that sound fun.
#11 Marquette at #6 Iowa State (-6), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Disbelief that this is on ESPN Plus. Everyone knew these two teams were two of the 20 or so best before the season began! You got all those different channels! Use them! I understand that ESPNs 1 and 2 are both occupied by the ACC/SEC crossover games and ESPNU has a women’s game on at this time (Syracuse/TAMU). Move it to 9 and put it on ABC. Did you know ABC is showing a two-hour block of Celebrity Family Feud and $100,000 Pyramid at that time? We are irredeemable.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #10 Oklahoma (-5.5) at #38 Louisville, 5 PM ET, ESPN2. The weirdness of WBB: one of the 10 or so best programs of the last 15 years is going to play its third home game on December 4, which is the same number of true road games they have played. I admire the fervor but perhaps would’ve not done it with a barely top-40 team.
#23 Baylor at #24 UConn (-3), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. If you like teams with porous interior defense, the potential to shoot the lights out on any given night, and two fantastic coaches who often look horribly frustrated by their defensive efforts, this is your Game of the Life.
#18 Ohio State at #32 Maryland (-2), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Ohio State owns a +19% 3PT delta, which isn’t a crime but makes me ready to sell every bit of OSU stock left when they have a +19% 3PT% delta and are somehow 5-2. If you’re outshooting opponents by that much from three you should likely be undefeated.
NCAAW: #26 Mississippi State at #32 Georgia Tech (-1), 7:15 PM ET, ACC Network. It’s early, but Georgia Tech is 7-0 and has a pair of wins over top-50 teams. This is good for a team on a two-year Tournament drought.
#7 Kansas (-5) at #51 Creighton, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Another thing that’s early but is increasingly real is that Creighton really, really needs this game. They’re at -1 Wins Above Bubble as I type. Exactly one team made last year’s field as an at-large at -1 or worse through November: Saint Mary’s. The only team that managed this in 2023 was 11-seed Providence. If Creighton wants to be the literal only team that does this in a typical season, you gotta start winning ASAP.
#13 Pitt at #28 Mississippi State (-1), 9:15 PM ET, SEC Network. I was highly tempted to place this in the A Games category but in terms of a purely watchable product I’m not yet there with MSU, whose closest statistical comp right now is somehow 2017-18 Rhode Island. Fine, just not totally my thing.
#35 Texas (-1) at #69 NC State, 9:15 PM ET, ESPN2. I don’t think much of this NCSU roster at all but I’m highly alarmed by Texas, who has already dropped 20 spots on KenPom despite playing two real games out of seven.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #14 Vanderbilt (-7) at #52 Miami FL, 5 PM ET, ACC Network. Shea Ralph is very obviously the Real Deal, and while Vandy’s yet to beat anyone of note I am highly impressed at how dominant they are in pure shot volume. Sitting at a schedule-adjusted +12.1 rebounds per 100 possessions and +11.9 turnovers.
#105 Louisiana Tech at #31 Memphis (-12), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Again, Penny Hardaway as a double-digit favorite: 18-29-1 ATS since 2019. Just because they haven’t goofed it yet doesn’t mean a goofing is no longer possible.
#37 Michigan State (-3) at #100 Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. My kind offer of buying in on Michigan State, who has the potential to be the least-watchable top-25 team in the nation, is still on the table.
#71 Vanderbilt (-3) at #142 Virginia Tech, 9:15 PM ET, ACC Network. The above game but worse.
#99 DePaul at #20 Texas Tech (-14), 9:15 PM ET, ESPNU. Top 100 DePaul! How cool.
#19 Oregon (-7) at #108 USC, 10:30 PM ET, BTN. I’m not sure that KenPom or any system has fully caught up to how bad USC might be. With all priors removed, Torvik has this group as the 147th-best team in the nation. The numbers I have that are more or less 50% computers/50% ‘repeatable’ stats (OREB%/TO%/FT Rate/2PT%), adjusted for schedule, have USC 125th. This is a bad basketball team. Anyway, remember that next time you take a single exhibition result seriously.
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5
A GAMES
NCAAW: #5 Texas at #4 Notre Dame (-3.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Fantastic, fantastic game. God bless women’s basketball. This is a HUGE test for Texas, who has played one top-75 opponent (West Virginia in a game that somehow isn’t a conference game anymore) and won by five. I have two concerns I want to see resolved: if Texas’s horrific fouling issues (357th in schedule-adjusted FT Rate) don’t crop up as an issue, and if Texas is able to replicate the insane edges on the boards they’ve shown thus far. If they do they’re going to cement themselves as a legitimate national title contender.
NCAAW: #22 Alabama (-0.5) at #34 California, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. This is like the undercard that might end up as good as the headliner. These two teams are a combined 15-1, both have monster 2PT% deltas (+20.5% for Alabama, +17.8% for Cal), and both have been great on each end of the court so far. They’re underdogs in their respective conferences but a win here could be a coming-out party.
B GAMES
#14 Purdue (-1) at #38 Penn State, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Alright, Penn State. You are 7-1, you’ve climbed 23 spots in KenPom since opening night, and you have looked suspiciously good outside of an expected loss to Clemson. You also have played just one game against a top-100 team, which was said loss to Clemson. Prove to me you’re ready for this.
NCAAW: #20 Ole Miss at #18 NC State (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. If you like great backcourts you’ll love this game: Sira Thienou, Kirsten Deans, and Kennedy Todd-Williams for Ole Miss; Aziaha James, Zoe Brooks, and Madison Hayes for NC State.
NCAAW: #9 Duke at #1 South Carolina (-12.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN. The worst thing that could’ve happened to everyone else in the nation was South Carolina losing a game in November because the two games after (76-36 over Iowa State, 99-51 over Purdue) have been demolitions. I hope this isn’t but I have my doubts.
NCAAW: #23 Stanford at #7 LSU (-9.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. This is good! Don’t get me wrong. I just wish it had happened last season, because Angel Reese vs. Cameron Brink would have been a great time.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #45 Kentucky at #21 North Carolina (-8.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN2. I’m still not in on UK as a top-25 team but I think Torvik has underrated them a tad. Huge proving grounds game here.
NCAAW: #73 James Madison at #96 VCU (-0.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. JMU is the clear Sun Belt favorite, but this is a toughie on the road at Atlantic 10 title contender VCU.
#67 Xavier at #81 TCU (-2), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Out on Xavier. Out. How can you have played five teams ranked 290th or worse, own two wins over top-100 teams, and have dropped 34 SPOTS since opening night? Ticking time bomb.
#140 Saint Louis at #62 San Francisco (-11), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. In case you’ve missed it Robbie Avila is back from injury, which means you can be interested in SLU again.
#96 UC San Diego at #109 UC Santa Barbara (-2), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. December conference basketball!
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 6
A GAME
D2: #6 Minnesota-Duluth at #5 Southwest Minnesota State (PK), 8:30 PM ET, streaming. No one knows this is going on, but now you do, and you should watch it if you’re in on a Friday. These are two legitimate Division II title contenders, and each has a legitimate Star You Should Know. Duluth’s, Charlie Katona, isn’t huge for counting stats (14.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG) but is shooting 70% on twos and has the best plus-minus on the team by nearly 20 points. SW Minnesota State’s, without being rude, should probably be tampered with: Aeron Stevens, an utterly dominant 6’7” forward averaging 19 PPG, shooting 36% from deep, with a combined two steals/blocks per game.
B GAMES
#66 North Texas at #138 High Point, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. North Texas has looked the part of a Tournament team thus far to me, which is exciting, but concern is growing for me over High Point. They’ve outshot opponents by +10.4% in eFG% and have managed to drop 30 spots on KenPom despite that because of underperformances against the 359th-toughest schedule in the sport.
#15 Illinois (-4) at #63 Northwestern, 9 PM ET, BTN. Speaking of crap schedules! Illinois’s ranks 309th so far, per KenPom. You are about to learn a lot about Illinois in the next three weeks.
C GAMES
#189 Miami OH at #53 Indiana (-14), 7 PM ET, BTN. This is on here just in case, but under Mike Woodson, Indiana is 16-11 ATS as a double-digit fave. Got my doubts.
NCAAW: #47 Princeton (-3) at #85 Portland, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Fun cross-country trip here. Portland has a pair of fabulous players in Emme Shearer/Maisie Burnham that could be frisky in the WCC.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7
A GAMES
NCAAW: #17 Iowa (-2) vs. #25 Tennessee, 7 PM ET, FOX. This is a MASSIVE, massive week for Tennessee; if they come out of it at 1-1 you can think of them as a top-20 team nationally, which is a good step forward for Kim Caldwell in year one. I think Tennessee could be in matchup hell here, though, because to be honest I am not sure who on the roster is going to stop Addison O’Grady and Hannah Stuelke with consistency. Better hit some threes.
#3 Gonzaga (-7) vs. #12 Kentucky, 10 PM ET, ESPN2. Annoyingly, this is played in Seattle, not Spokane, so you can’t call it a true home game. Still: pretty huge week for Kentucky, too! Come out of it at 1-1 and you should feel pretty good. Come out of it at 0-2 and…well, you probably should still feel fine. This is another Plausible Matchup Hell game to me but not in the way you’d think. As Jon Fendler has pointed out, Gonzaga’s toughest matchups come against teams who take away catch-and-shoots, allow low numbers of attempts at the rim, and play drop coverage. Kentucky does all three things.
B GAMES
#47 Nebraska at #37 Michigan State (-5), 12 PM ET, BTN. Folks! I am ALSO offering a Buy Low Opportunity on Nebraska. Are they great? No, not at all. But are they probably a top-40, maybe top-35 team hiding in a 47th-ranking body? I think so. 6-1 with the one loss being by three to SMC on a neutral. Big whoop.
NCAAW: #33 Indiana at #42 Penn State (PK), 1 PM ET, BTN+. Here’s how stacked Big Ten WBB is: these are two Tournament-quality teams but they’re currently projected to finish 11th and 14th in the conference.
#29 Wisconsin at #11 Marquette (-8), 1:30 PM ET, FOX. This will be one of the most alcohol-heavy two-hour basketball games in human history. Matching up two teams from the state of Wisconsin in an NBA arena has the chance to produce an Eastern European crowd at the 78th minute of a 1-1 match.
#49 Iowa at #22 Michigan (-7), 2 PM ET, FS1. I have been Seriously Concerned about Vlad Goldin this year but it feels like a corner is being turned. Last three games by Box Plus-Minus: +11.4, +4.6, +15.7. That’s more like it. Adjusted for minutes it’s +3.6, +0.8, +4.3, which is still quite good particularly when that +15.7/+4.3 are against Xavier.
#48 Boise State (-8) vs. #103 Washington State, 3 PM ET, CBS. CBS! Huh. Big ol’ CBS for this one. I was more excited for this before learning that Wazzu’s Cedric Coward is out for the season with injury, which is a huge bummer. Boise’s loss to Boston College on a neutral looks awful until you find out Boise shot 23% from three while Boston College shot 56% on midrange twos. On an average night that’s a 12-point Boise win.
NCAAW: #8 USC at #31 Oregon (-5), 4 PM ET, BTN. I legitimately forgot, until writing this exact sentence, that this is a conference game. Good stuff! I’m not sure how I feel about Oregon yet but I am highly confident how I feel about USC: elite top three, good-but-iffy depth.
#33 Saint Mary’s at #60 Utah (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. A suggestion: if you’re actively trying to make the NCAA Tournament I would not craft this schedule for November. Utah, what are you doing?
NCAAW: #2 UConn (-16) vs. #38 Louisville, 9 PM ET, FOX. Through a month, my vote goes to UConn as the national title favorite, and they’re tracking for an all-time banger next Thursday at Notre Dame. If Louisville can steal a single win this week it’s a huge boon.
C GAMES
#68 Kansas State at #21 St. John’s (-10), 11:30 AM ET, FOX. Boy, it is crazy that a Kansas State transfer haul that prioritized names and talent over any definition of ‘fit’ might not be working out.
#70 Rutgers at #18 Ohio State (-11), 12 PM ET, FS1. Boy, is it crazy that a Rutgers team with two good players on it and a bunch of transfers that aren’t impact players might not be working out.
#25 Clemson (-6) at #93 Miami FL, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. Again: Miami, you better win a game this week. Either one.
#141 UMass Lowell at #166 UMass (-2), 12 PM ET, ESPN+. This has a critical mass feeling for Frank Martin’s tenure at UMass. This is a 3-5 basketball team that looks like the 12th-best team in a 15-team league. If they finish their projected 13-18 (7-11 A10) what’s fundamentally different about that from Matt McCall or Derek Kellogg? You cannot lose to your historical in-state feeder school.
NCAAW: #46 MTSU at #65 Belmont (PK), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Fantastic in-state battle. This isn’t a real rivalry in the traditional sense but it should be.
NCAAW: #35 Creighton (-3.5) at #66 Northern Iowa, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Hope you like offense. Top is Creighton; bottom UNI.
#59 Butler at #5 Houston (-12), 4:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Home game for Houston…first game after an overtime loss…first game after Kelvin challenged his team’s manhood several times in the postgame presser…this has all-time Angry Houston potential.
D2 NCAAW: #4 Concordia at #10 Southwest Minnesota State (-2.5), 4:30 PM ET, streaming. I know nothing about this other than it exists, but top-10 versus top-10 gets a mention. I look forward to learning.
D3: #3 Hampden-Sydney at #5 Randolph Macon (-1.5), 7 PM ET, streaming. Sort of the same here but with a note: this Adam Brazil guy for Hampden-Sydney RULES. 25.2 PPG on 67% 2PT/31% 3PT, a 2.4:1 AST/TO ratio, and somehow a 6.6% TO% despite a monster usage rate.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 8
A GAMES
#27 Texas A&M vs. #20 Texas Tech (-1), 3 PM ET, ESPN2. I hope you like defensively-minded battles that are actually offense-first battles because I sure do. Grant McCasland was a fantastic defensive coach at North Texas that hasn’t quite found it yet at Tech; Buzz Williams runs that baffling matchup zone thing that can be really troublesome if you’re not prepped for it appropriately. I really don’t have much of an idea how this one goes, which has me excited.
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-10.5) vs. #11 TCU, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Sedona Prince is a controversial figure for reasons this newsletter is very much not equipped to discuss, but as a basketball player she is a monster. I need you to read this statline from TCU’s upset over Notre Dame last week: 20 points, 20 rebounds, 8 blocks, three steals, and four assists. Here are the full list of players, men or women, that have gone 20/20/5/2/2 in the last 20 years:
Pretty good. Pretty good!
B GAMES
#32 Maryland at #14 Purdue (-6), 12 PM ET, BTN. These two teams take basically the exact same shots, which then just becomes “which team is better” to me. I am not going to begin doubting Purdue at Mackey!
#7 Kansas (-5) at #54 Missouri, 1 PM ET, ESPN2. God, I love that this is back. If the two programs can get over themselves and bring it back in football, too, we’ll be back to full circle. I’m very intrigued by this Mizzou team, which I feel like I know nothing about but has been dominant in terms of fouls and turnovers. Against a Kansas team that’s eternally one 10-0 run from an internal squabble that could be of note.
NCAAW: #27 Minnesota at #37 Nebraska (-0.5), 2 PM ET, BTN. This will be Minnesota’s first game of the entire season against a top-100 opponent. Going 9-0 so far is great, obviously, but…do we really know much at all about them? I don’t think so.
NCAAW: #29 Illinois at #12 Ohio State (-8.5), 4 PM ET, BTN. Adjusted for schedule on both sides, Ohio State projects to garner a +7 turnover margin in this game. If that holds, Illinois has to either be dominant on the boards or really out-shoot Ohio State to win. Monitor.
#24 UConn at #35 Texas (-3), 5 PM ET, ESPN. In normal times, this is a gigantic coaching mismatch the likes of which you rarely see in a December road game. In these times where UConn’s perimeter defense is porous and Texas’s one thing they’re excellent at is attacking from the perimeter…well, I still think the team coached by Dan Hurley probably wins but I don’t know.
#4 Duke (-5) at #39 Louisville, 6 PM ET, ACC Network. Congratulations to Louisville, whose season apparently ended on November 9 per various dorks but is Actually Good at basketball.
#17 UCLA at #19 Oregon (-3), 6 PM ET, BTN. This is the ultimate How Are Both Of These Teams Top 20 in KenPom game of the season thus far. I don’t think either is, but at the same time, they both seem like two of the 30 or so best, so it’s not all that bad. UCLA’s offense is about as ugly as I thought it would be but their defense is one of the five best units in America right now.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #5 Texas (-18.5) at #73 James Madison, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Again: imagine ANYONE on the men’s side of the fence scheduling this game. This is a top-5 team going on the road to play the best team in the Sun Belt. Can you imagine Marquette going on the road to play Arkansas State? It would never, ever happen. Another mark in favor of WBB right now.
NCAAW: #43 UNLV at #19 Baylor (-9), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Fantastic battle here; I would take UNLV to ‘cover’ here sight unseen because I love their roster. UNLV will have to overcome a Baylor roster that forces 50% of all opponent attempts to come from the midrange, a stat so insane that I have triple-checked to confirm it’s true.
NCAAW: #6 Kansas State (-11.5) at #54 Texas A&M, 4 PM ET, SEC Network. Season-saving chance here for TAMU: a 4-4 start has them at -2 Wins Above Bubble with a team that was generally expected to make the Tournament.
#115 Arkansas State at #31 Memphis (-14), 4 PM ET, ESPNU. Again, Penny Hardaway as a double-digit favorite: 18-29-1 ATS since 2019. Just because they haven’t goofed it yet doesn’t mean a goofing is no longer possible.
NCAAW: #47 Princeton at #30 Utah (-6.5), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Utah joined the list of teams to lose their coach to the WNBA in-season, as Lynne Roberts has departed after a long career with the Utes. We are becoming more European, because this happens basically every month in the Premier League.
NCAAW: #3 UCLA (-12) at #41 Washington, 5 PM ET, BTN+. Adjusted for schedule, UCLA projects to have a +6 turnover advantage and +10 on the offensive boards. Washington has to find some way to overcome that to avoid a double-digit home loss.