Week 5.5 Watchlist: Saturday/Sunday
The First Big Weekend
The Watchlist Tune o’ The Weekend
No essay for this one; it’s a continuation of Monday’s post about this week’s best games. The problem is that this weekend was so packed with good ball that it felt unfair to ruin the rest of the watchlist by jamming both the weekdays and weekends together. So! You get two posts for this weekend: this and a Tennessee/Illinois preview, which probably comes out early tomorrow. Please pray for my soul, and for pneumonia to no longer exist in this world. I am only partially joking. (Note: as of Friday morning I am no longer serious. God bless doxycycline and prednisone.)
Anyway! Here’s The Watchlist, weekend edition. It is nearly 3,700 words long, apologies in advance. This one will look a bit different than usual. It’s in an actual schedule-based format, which you should figure out pretty quickly. Enjoy.
All men’s rankings and lines via KenPom. All women’s rankings/lines via Her Hoop Stats/Massey.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 9
12-2 PM ET
FOUR STARS
#14 Illinois at #9 Tennessee (-5), 12 PM ET, CBS. I toyed with the idea of making this a five-star game, but neither team plays what I would call a terribly sexy style of basketball. Both are very good! Both might even be top 10 teams! I’m just saying it’s not quite as fun as if, say, Gonzaga were playing Baylor in this slot.
Still, this is a terrific start to a terrific day. Tennessee has played a bonkers schedule that has seen them take on #13, #2, #12, #15, and #14 in the span of one month, and this doesn’t even include an exhibition win at #29 Michigan State. This is the first and only big non-conference game that will be at home for Tennessee this year and it’s conveniently right before students leave for winter break (December 13), so it should be a raucous environment between two future Final Four hopefuls. Also: Dalton Knecht vs. Terrence Shannon. Should I be giving this five stars?
THREE STARS
#92 Tulane vs. #37 Mississippi State (-6), 11:30 AM ET, SEC Network. I’m not sure why this is being played at a neutral site (Atlanta) and I do not think that anyone should ever watch Mississippi State’s offense, which is laughably dire for the second year in a row. That being said, Tulane absolutely has The Juice this year and is fun as it gets on offense right now, so hopefully it’ll balance out.
#125 UMass Lowell at #142 UMass (-1), 12 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the last time you’ll get to see UMass Lowell play a non-dire team until January 25, when they play Vermont. UML has not crafted a great non-conference resume but 6-2 is 6-2, and a win here could go a long way in solidifying them as a 13 seed if they win the America East.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#13 Alabama vs. #2 Purdue (-5), 1:30 PM ET, FOX. Sue me, this one starts 30 minutes outside of this time frame but I don’t really care. This is the exact type of big-name matchup that I want to see in non-conference play even if it’s at a neutral site. These two teams play polar opposite styles, will want to do completely opposite things offensively, and want to own completely different parts of the box score.
Styles clashes generally make for the most entertaining games to real hoop heads, and I figure this is no different. I’m fascinated by a lot here. Can Purdue’s guards handle an Alabama defense that’s way, way down from last year’s peak? Can Alabama exploit a Purdue defense that plays very conservative basketball and mostly wants to keep you away from the rim? Can Alabama keep Zach Edey off the boards? Can Purdue’s guards deal with the scary Sears/Estrada backcourt? Great, great game. Can’t wait.
FOUR STARS
#17 Auburn (-7) vs. #65 Indiana, 2 PM ET, ESPN2. This is at a neutral as well (Atlanta), which is stupid. I assume this is Indiana’s fault, because Bruce Pearl just played a road game at Literally App State and lost. Good on him for scheduling that! Anyway, I remain deeply unconvinced by Indiana’s offense, where the strategy appears to be having an offense with zero shooters on the court at all times. Their 2PT% is high and they get to the line a lot, but I don’t think it’s going to work forever. The number of teams with a 3PT% and a 3PA% as low as Indiana’s that made the NCAA Tournament in the last 15 years is pretty much no one.
WBB: #25 Nebraska at #14 Michigan State (-4.5), 2 PM ET, BTN. This is a fact-finding mission for me. Nebraska might have their best team in a decade (the 2013-14 Huskers went 26-7 and were a 4 seed), while MSU might have their best in a decade, too. MSU’s offense is also insane, as they currently sit #2 nationally in unadjusted offensive efficiency and are shooting 44% from three. This game goes a good way in figuring out the tier of the Big Ten below Iowa. You could make a case for all of Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska, and MSU to be #2, but one of those has to be #5 at best. All are top 25 teams.
WBB: #17 UNLV (-5) at #52 Oklahoma, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Fellow old-ish types can remember a time where Oklahoma had an awesome women’s program, mostly from about 2000-2012. They’ve faded in recent years but this edition looks to be reasonably solid and Tournament-like, with a great offense and a horrific defense. Think of them as NCAAW Iowa or Michigan. Meanwhile, UNLV absolutely rips. They’re scoring 84 PPG and just demolished a good Arizona team by 19. It might be their best team since…I mean, 1990? 1989? Now we’re really going back in time.
#11 Wisconsin at #4 Arizona (-6), 3:15 PM ET, ESPN. Hey, imaginary reader. Did you know that Wisconsin is 15th in KenPom’s offense rankings? Yeah! Same Wisconsin that’s sucked on offense for years now. Good for those guys, even if they still can’t shoot. Anyway, this is a game with considerably more juice to it than when it was initially scheduled. Wisconsin looks to have taken a genuine leap with a very old roster, while Arizona kinda looks like the best team in America. I think we’ll learn a lot about both sides here.
THREE STARS
#55 Kansas State (-1) at #93 LSU, 1:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Not as interesting a game as it initially appeared, but I like this one from the desperate-to-win angle. Kansas State has had a horrid week of PR with Nae’Qwan Tomlin getting kicked off the team, while LSU looks like the 13th-best SEC team in a must-win year for Matt McMahon. Kansas State is really, really lucky to be 7-2 and have played pretty badly all year long save for maybe one half in each of the Providence/Villanova games.
#71 Grand Canyon at #59 Liberty (-4), 2 PM ET, ESPNU. Huge game for people patiently awaiting the Iraqi Dinar reval.
#145 Colgate at #118 Vermont (-6), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Vermont has scuffled a bit with lesser opponents at times but generally looks the part of a frisky 14-seed type. Colgate’s offense has unfortunately taken a huge step back, though one figures it’ll be fine come February because it’s Matt Langel.
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#33 TCU vs. #26 Clemson (-1), 4 PM ET, FOX Sports 1. Sure, TCU vs. Clemson doesn’t look like a five-star name game, but as an actual game, this is going to be a lot of fun. I can’t tell if the secret is or isn’t out about Clemson, because PJ Hall has mostly operated in obscurity over the years. But! Clemson is more than just PJ Hall. Syracuse transfer Joe Girard is shooting 46% from three. The team as a whole is at 41% from deep. They love playing entertaining 40-minute games and already own road wins over Alabama and Pitt. Very good basketball team!
On the other side is TCU, an undefeated team that has the motherlode of all bad karma coming its way after stealing a win last Saturday. These guys have yet to play a single team in the KenPom top 150 and it’s December 8. I have no doubt they’re good, but we have literally no useful data whatsoever on this team. Still, you know what you’re gonna get when you play TCU: a very chaotic game with lots of transition scoring and steals. This should be a really fun and enjoyable basketball game.
FOUR STARS
#44 Arkansas vs. #18 Oklahoma (-4), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Arkansas is another team where I have zero clue of how good or bad they are, but it is because they’ve beaten and lost to both good and bad teams. Meanwhile Oklahoma might have a top-10 defense and appears to have its first watchable offense under Porter Moser.
THREE STARS
#90 Richmond vs. #31 Florida (-7), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. There’s a path to this being a much better game than three stars entails. Richmond’s offense is Penn State-lite in that they’re elite shot-makers who never turn the ball over but also never get an offensive rebound. Florida’s the opposite: they can’t shoot, but they hammer the boards and the paint like crazy. This is another fun styles clash.
#80 Missouri at #12 Kansas (-13), 5:15 PM ET, ESPN. I’m including this because 45 minutes is probably all you need to know that this Missouri team looks like they’re gonna go 7-11 in SEC play while Kansas will mostly sustain interest for long enough to win by exactly 13 points. I don’t think this is the game Hunter Dickinson fights someone. That’ll happen in January.
6-8 PM ET
THE SIX STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#6 BYU (-4) at #40 Utah, 7 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. It is deeply annoying that the powers that be have relegated a tremendous rivalry game, in which the two teams involved probably have their best teams in 13 and 9 years respectively, to a network no one gets. It is so stupid! So, if you are like me and 98.6% of Americans and do not get the Pac-12 Network, let me tell you about a little site that is similar to the words “Creek” and “West”. Or perhaps “Scream” and “Least”. Do not hold me to legal standards on this newsletter.
Anyway, this as an actual game is ridiculously good. These are two top-25 offenses with total opposite styles. BYU loves to bomb away from deep, while Utah is dominant in the paint and is the tallest team by average height in the nation. BYU’s done an amazing job on the offensive boards so far…but Utah’s a great defensive rebounding team. Can Utah’s roster of quality shooters be the first team to exploit BYU from deep? Can this seemingly unstoppable BYU train keep rolling? I’m excited to find out the answers to these questions.
FIVE STARS
#27 Cincinnati at #52 Xavier (PK), 6:30 PM ET, FOX Sports 1. If you don’t feel like doing some streaming of questionable legality, you have this elite rivalry to fall back on. Whenever these two meet, something interesting seems to always happen, whether it’s a brawl off the court or a brawl on the court. This is also a pretty great situational spot for this game. Cincinnati’s enjoyed a surprise undefeated start to the season after a very chaotic offseason, but Xavier currently sits 4-5 with no good wins and multiple really bad losses.
FOUR STARS
WBB: #23 Villanova (-8.5) at #61 Saint Joseph’s, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Best of luck to Villanova as they attempt to do something the men couldn’t do: beat a Philadelphia team.
#82 Drake vs. #43 Nevada (-4), 7:30 PM ET, “Baller TV”. In the latest get-rich-quick scheme in a country packed with them, Drake and Nevada - two very fun basketball teams - will be playing a game on a site I have never heard of. You can pay $20 for the right to stream this one (1) basketball game. I won’t judge you if you do, because this is a pretty good game. That being said, I’m looking forward to finding out if Nevada’s radio crew is any good, because I’m not paying $20. Morrisoncrying on Twitter bought a portable radio to listen to them during games, so they must be alright.
THREE STARS
WBB: #29 Kansas State (-6.5) vs. #68 Missouri, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. This Kansas State team has now beaten Iowa two straight seasons and is 13th in the AP Poll. I think that ranking is a bit overvalued, as evidenced by HHS not even having them in the top 25, but it’s clearly a good basketball team. Missouri badly needs this win for at-large purposes after swinging and missing on every potentially useful win thus far; their top win at the moment is a home W over a Missouri State side that looks like the fourth-best in the MVC.
#72 Saint Mary’s at #24 Colorado State (-9), 6:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network. Saint Mary’s is a crushing disappointment this year, but the beautiful and holy Colorado State Rams are just that. Tune in and see our perfect boys!
#42 UCLA at #32 Villanova, 7 PM ET, FOX. This is the downside of a Name Game. If you saw this in the listings you’d be really excited to tune in because it’s UCLA and Villanova. If you’ve actually watched either team play this year, you’d know to keep your TV on something more interesting. If Villanova can’t hit 10+ threes, this game will finish with a score of 62-59.
#75 James Madison (-7) at #228 Old Dominion, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Could be nothing! Could also be something. ODU has been a little underwhelming this year but recent performances (aka they beat Drexel and Radford) suggest a possible steadying of the ship. JMU’s tremendous first week has continued to reveal them as possibly one of the ~40 best teams in the nation, but everyone drops a shocker eventually and they played quite poorly against Radford and Buffalo in the last couple weeks. Plus: Jeff Jones is 7-7 straight-up as a home underdog at Old Dominion. Not bad.
8-10 PM ET
Get some rest in. God bless the fact that the best game here is Rutgers at Seton Hall, and you really should not be watching Rutgers or Seton Hall play that game unless you’re a fan of either team.
LATE GAMES
FOUR STARS
#10 Gonzaga (-5) at #58 Washington, 11 PM ET, ESPN2. Elite haters ball here. I cannot stand watching Washington, a team that often looks like it would rather be at the library than on a basketball court. I also have not gotten fully used to watching this edition of Gonzaga yet, though the standard is so high with them that just being a top-15 offense feels like a crushing drop-off.
#76 UC Irvine at #28 San Diego State (-8), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. This is a fabulous game to end your night with. A couple of tough road losses to good Duquesne and Utah State teams have dimmed the UCI bulb a hair, but this is a terrific defense as usual and they’ve already beaten USC. If you have not seen what Jaedon LeDee is doing for San Diego State yet this year, you need to. It’s unbelievable to me that this is the same guy who was coming off the bench in April.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 10
FIVE STARS
WBB: #11 UCLA (-6.5) vs. #40 Florida State, 12 PM ET, ESPN 2. Great way to start a Sunday. These are two of the top 15 offenses in the sport this year, with FSU in particular playing a transition-heavy style that lends itself to highly watchable basketball. UCLA is a lot more efficient, but FSU has a path to hanging around here by way of out-working UCLA on the boards and with their penchant for avoiding turnovers. Just gotta hit shots.
FOUR STARS
WBB: #51 Penn State at #12 Ohio State (-12.5), 1 PM ET, BTN+. A shame this one gets relegated to streaming-only because it’s very interesting. Penn State is ranked in this week’s AP Poll, which is a huge deal because Penn State was last ranked in 2014. OSU looks as good as they have the last several years and figures to be a serious national threat; they’re in that four-pack right after Iowa. Another game between two very fun offenses, both of which can really shoot it. Favorite player here is Makenna Marisa of PSU, who’s currently averaging 16 PPG/3 RPG/4 APG.
THREE STARS
WBB: #49 Florida Gulf Coast at #18 Duke (-12.5), 12 PM ET, ACC Network. Lady Vols fans will be watching this one with elevated interest. Unfortunately, it doesn’t figure to be a great game. FGCU’s offense is well down from what it usually is, while Duke is making their name much more on the defensive end with a top-3 D.
#51 Princeton (-1) at #88 Saint Joseph’s, 1 PM ET, ESPN+. I love that Princeton has somehow leveled up from last year despite losing their best player. I also love that Saint Joseph’s appears to have finally turned the corner. If SJU had a better offense this would be in the four-star category, but I can only count on one offense to show up here, so three stars it stays.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
WBB: #2 Utah vs. #1 South Carolina (-10.5), 2:30 PM ET, ESPN. Utah will be without Gianna Kneepkens, a tremendous shooter who has given them so much the last two seasons, but the roster as a whole still offers tons of talent. Aside from this, a late January date with LSU is the only thing preventing South Carolina from entering February undefeated.
This game is likely to hinge on the obvious big matchup: Alissa Pili of Utah (23.2 PPG, 6 RPG) vs. Kamilla Cardoso of USC (14.4 PPG, 11.5 RPG). Both are in the running for Player of the Year for obvious reasons. If that matchup is won by Pili, Utah has a real chance here. If Cardoso wins it, Utah is going to need a giant day from their supporting cast (Ines Vieira, Kennady McQueen, Jenna Johnson) to pull off the upset. I’m very excited to see what this game gives us.
FOUR STARS
#30 Colorado (-1) vs. #38 Miami FL, 2 PM ET, ESPN2. Kind of a shame this is at the same time as Utah/South Carolina, but it is what it is. Really fun game between the current #2 (Miami) and #3 (Colorado) 3PT% offenses in the nation right now. This is a great game if you loved Big 12 football in the year 2012.
WBB: #33 Michigan at #27 Illinois (-1), 3 PM ET, BTN+. Hello Michigan friends! Do you like watching a basketball team that gives an [REDACTED] on both ends of the court and seems to be a well-coached group? May I suggest the women’s team.
THREE STARS
WBB: #4 Iowa (-15.5) at #108 Wisconsin, 2:30 PM ET, BTN. You don’t need to watch this one, but it’s in the honorable mention category because it’s always interesting to see what Caitlin Clark may or may not do.
WBB: #21 Marquette (-9.5) at #80 Illinois State, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. God, we are eating good this weekend. If you’re a guy who thinks women’s basketball is bad for some reason, imagine having a game between #21 Kentucky and #80 Missouri and it’s relegated to streaming only. That is not a bad basketball game! It’s probably pretty entertaining.
4-6 PM ET
FOUR STARS
WBB: #7 UConn (-8.5) vs. #35 North Carolina, 5 PM ET, ESPN. If UConn can ever figure out how to keep multiple players healthy at once, they’re going to at least make this year’s Elite Eight. Geno has had an unreal run of bad injury luck as of recent; UNC could be the latest team to benefit from that.
#54 Michigan at #39 Iowa (-5), 4:30 PM ET, BTN. Huge game here, as Juwan Howard attempts to figure out how to win a close game. This certainly will not turn out like all the other times Juwan Howard has needed to win a close game!
THREE STARS
#41 Memphis at #20 Texas A&M (-7), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. This one could go one of two ways, and I hope it goes my preferred way. On one hand, this could be an awful game to watch where both teams compete to see who can shoot the most free throws. On the other, both teams hit a few shots and still beat the tar out of each other on rebounds.
WBB: #47 Washington at #31 Washington State (-7.5), 4 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. These are two great defenses with two flimsy offenses, which makes for a higher-quality game than this suggests but probably not a very fun game.
6-BED PM ET
Thankfully, the slate dies after this one. Everybody needs sleep and Sunday Night Football.
FOUR STARS
#29 Michigan State (-1) at #66 Nebraska, 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Well, I love this one. I love watching Tyson Walker attempt to lift the dying roster around him. I love watching Keisei Tominaga do literally anything. I continue to think that MSU can’t be this bad and Tom Izzo will eventually figure things out like he always has. The Nebraska roster this year is just stuffed with enjoyable Dudes like Brice Williams and Rienk Mast and Juwan Gary. I wish them the best of luck.