Week 6 Watchlist: I Guess It's Somethin' in My Brain
A plea for halftime to matter
Hello! Welcome to the weekly watchlist. If you’re new(ish) here, this is what it sounds like: a roundup of the week’s best games, complete with an essay of sorts I’ve scrambled out. Enjoy.
The Watchlist Tune o’ The Week
Spent most of last week sick. Spent most of the last two weeks sick, really. Part of living with a teacher is acknowledging the fact you’re likely going to get sick twice a year: once in the fall/winter, once in the spring. If you’re lucky, it’s once, but twice has been the usual status. It’s worth it to trade off a week each fall/spring for a healthy summer, anyway.
But let me tell ya: two weeks of sickness sucks big ones. I had the flu, thought I was mostly recovered, then it regressed rapidly into what they call “walking pneumonia.” That is a thing I had never heard of until I was told I have it, and I would like to never hear of it again. But I did get to listen to the world’s most accurate album for when you’re sick (which is a personal favorite), and I did get to watch a lot of basketball while I suffered through the angst of being unable to do much of anything.
I’ve been pondering our friend Jon Fendler’s ‘rant’ of sorts lately, and I gotta say: agreed. This Saturday was the first Saturday since August I have not ran in the mornings, so I got to settle in and pretty much do nothing from start to finish. Out of interest, I watched a few halftime shows here and there, straining to see if there was anything notable a viewer could pick up on. And…..nothin’.
Not that I expect any halftime show to be a beacon of joy or intriguing thought, obviously. TNT’s Inside the NBA is beyond perfect for what it is; I would happily take their charisma and good vibes any day. But college basketball - really, all college athletics - currently has nothing notable whatsoever in the descriptive phase of the game. I really enjoy the work of some commentators out there: Tom Hart, Jimmy Dykes, Robbie Hummel, Jason Benetti, etc. CBS’s combo of Bill Raftery and Jay Wright is genuinely very encouraging because it sounds the most like a traditional baseball PBP pairing, though neither does PBP. (NOTE: “traditional baseball pairing” to me means one straight man, i.e., ‘analyst’ type, and one goofy guy.)
I even think that graphics departments are getting a little better. Occasionally, on a broadcast, you’ll see separate 2PT% and 3PT% noted. Dykes in particular may be the foremost user of advanced analytics on broadcasts right now alongside Hummel; there is a reason I genuinely get excited when he is on the call, and not just because he is a friend.
But for the most part, broadcasts - and especially halftime shows - remain the same beige drawings. There are no original observations being drawn. The team in the lead at halftime simply wanted it more. The team behind should do the things they did the other day. A team who is underperforming needs to wake up. A team overperforming simply came in with more juice. At no point anywhere are shooting variance, actual in-game matchups, or anything of note being discussed.
This has become regrettably prevalent on ESPN’s in particular. At one point in my lifetime, the ESPN halftime broadcast was actually somewhat useful because you had people making somewhat useful points. Tom Crean (on some of these) comes closest, as he does appear interested in the stats side of the game. If he’s not there, you’re out of luck: it’s the same dumb media viewpoints everyone has made for 500 years.
I’m not asking for much here, people! I just want to have the instinct to do anything other than flip over to another game or read a book during halftime. Teach me something. Anything. I’m begging. So are a lot of other people. Smarter basketball broadcasts, and smarter basketball productions, are possible. I promise that people want it. Every other sport, even football, has good ones. Why not us?
MONDAY, DECEMBER 11
THREE STARS
WBB: #41 Princeton at #26 Villanova (-5.5), 7 PM ET, FloHoops. Every sport ebbs and flows; the first couple days of this week are a remarkably deep valley after the heights of this weekend. So it goes. I despise recommending anything on “FloHoops", which you can either sign up for $150/year or $30/month for, but this is a good game with two very good defenses. Of note: probably because no one wants to sign up for their stupid site, FloHoops has been streaming a lot of games for free on YouTube.
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 12
FOUR STARS
NAIA: #5 Georgetown (KY) at #33 Bethel (IN), 8 PM ET, streaming. I don’t often get to recommend NAIA ball on here, but it has its highlights. This game is one of them. If you haven’t seen Georgetown (the superior Georgetown) play basketball in the last few years, this night provides an excellent opportunity. These two teams both average 89 PPG, and Georgetown is #2 in the nation in OREBs per game at 16.1. This is going to be a really fun back-and-forth battle between an NAIA title hopeful and a frisky Bethel side that plays a fun style.
THREE STARS
#101 Hofstra at #17 Duke (-14), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. The Stephen F. Austin game did a lot of damage to everyone’s memories, mine included. I get excited for these Duke home games where they might get tested. I then look up and realize that SFA game is Duke’s only home loss as a double-digit home favorite in forever and they’re 19-14-1 ATS as a 10+ point favorite in non-con games since 2018. Still, Hofstra’s one of the best shooting teams in America and could variance their way into a battle.
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 13
FOUR STARS
WBB: #16 Creighton at #22 Marquette (-0.5), 8 PM ET, FloHoops. Another game on the villain that is FloHoops, but as covered earlier, this might be free on YouTube anyway. This is the first year in a long, long time where UConn does not look like the dominant Sword of Damocles hanging over the rest of their conference’s heads. The winner of this game could be a genuine competitor for the conference title.
WBB: #5 Texas (-6.5) at #49 Arizona, 9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Well, no one can see this on television, so perhaps resort to other tactics. This Texas team is extremely, extremely good and might have had the most impressive start to the season of anyone not named South Carolina. Only SC’s defense might be better. On the other side: an Arizona team that forces 22 turnovers a game and creates a ton of fastbreak points with it.
THREE STARS
#56 Utah State (-4) at #142 Santa Clara, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Not much happening on the men’s side through three days, but this is the best of the available bunch. This is a good-enough matchup, though. If you have not seen Utah State’s Great Osobor play basketball yet, remedy that immediately. What a special player that guy is.
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14
FIVE STARS
D2: #3 Minnesota State-Mankato (-2.5) at #10 Winona State, 6:30 PM ET, streaming. Yes, a Division 2 game in the 5-star section. Deal with it.
Do you want to see one of the very best offenses you’ll see in college basketball this year? How about Minnesota State, who currently ranks #1 in D-2 in eFG%? The Mavericks are pulling a remarkable double of 62% from two and 42% from three with a pair of brothers leading the way. Malik and Kyreese Willingham are averaging 21.4 and 14.4 PPG, respectively; I would wager no pair of brothers at any level are outscoring these guys.
Winona State has their own pair of brothers - Connor and Declan Dillon - but Connor is the star of the show. He’s averaging 24.8 PPG on 56% 2PT/36% 3PT shooting splits. Winona’s goal every year is to slow the game down to an absolute crawl (think Virginia levels) and maximize three-point attempts, which means they could win or lose this game by 15. This should be fun! Give it a shot!
FOUR STARS
#139 Furman at #104 Tulane (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. These are two terrible defenses taking on two excellent offenses. The projected score is 92-86. I figure that should be enough of a sell.
D3: #35 Swarthmore at #3 Hampden-Sydney (-6.5), 7 PM ET, “Boxcast TV". One of three non-D1 games today. Hampden-Sydney is a legitimate D3 title contender come March, with an offense and defense inside the top 20 of Matt Snyder’s ratings. Swarthmore’s scuffled out of the gate a bit but has a quality defense and is one of the best rebounding teams at any level.
D2: #11 Emporia State (-2.5) at #29 Missouri Western, 8:30 PM ET, streaming. Here’s my sell: these two teams both rank near the top of D-2 in fastbreak points, and Emporia State is both hitting and allowing 54%+ from two. It’s going to be up-and-down and therefore very entertaining.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 15
FIVE STARS
#4 UConn (-2) at #12 Gonzaga, 10 PM ET, ESPN2. Presumably this one needs no intro or hard sell. This game is in Seattle, but considering the travel involved for the two programs this is pretty close to a Gonzaga home game. How Gonzaga chooses to handle Donovan Clingan is one thing, but Tristen Newton emerging into a superstar is another. I’ve still got the stat in mind of Dan Hurley owning zero true top 50 road wins at UConn, which is not a bad thing but more of a weird thing that won’t go away.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 16
This day is stuffed. It’s the only truly great day of the week, so this one gets the schedule treatment.
12-2 PM ET
FOUR STARS
WBB: #23 Louisville at #7 UConn (-7.5), 12 PM ET, FOX. As mentioned, this UConn team has scuffled out of the gate a bit due to injuries and what UConn faithful tell me are underwhelming upperclassmen outside of the obvious Paige Bueckers. Louisville has a nasty defense that forces turnovers on 28% of possessions and crushes the boards every time down. This typically still ends in a 10+ point UConn win, but this year does feel a little unusual.
#10 Kansas (-7) at #76 Indiana, 12:30 PM ET, CBS. Part of me wants to make this a three-star game, but alas, I’m swayed by the uniforms. I cannot stand watching this Indiana team, who have an offense about as desirable to watch as a car crash. Meanwhile Kansas has decided they only need to show up for certain parts of certain games and are therefore a very annoying team to watch. I’m looking forward to them building a 15-point lead here then farting around to let Indiana trail by 6 with two minutes left.
THREE STARS
WBB: #15 UNLV at #62 Seton Hall (-0.5), 1 PM ET, FloHoops. The villain Flo strikes again. This UNLV team is really fun and has a tremendous offense, but Seton Hall is good in their own right and appears to be a bubble-style team. I love UNLV playing these road games in December. Why not if you can build your resume?
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#25 Clemson at #34 Memphis (-2), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Thanks to college football bowl season, a lot of otherwise really intriguing games are going to get shoved to ESPN’s streaming service. Since most people I know who like basketball have it by now, this is not a big deal, but it remains an annoyance in some form that we absolutely have to have the “Cure Bowl” or “LA Bowl” on cable television so that gamblers can watch two 7-5 teams combine for 30 points.
Anyway, just watch this. This Clemson offense is so fun to watch. PJ Hall is PJ Hall, obviously, but four of their five starters are shooting 40% or better from three and the fifth (Chase Hunter) is almost at 33%. Their defense has also come in well above expectation, and I’m genuinely happy to say that they look like a Sweet Sixteen (or further) threat. Meanwhile, Memphis has a weird personnel issue (google Jordan Brown and you might find him before Penny does) but just pulled off a really impressive road win at Texas A&M. They’re good.
FOUR STARS
#7 Baylor (-5) vs. #35 Michigan State (in Detroit), 2 PM ET, FOX. I know what you’re thinking. Michigan State is 4-5! Wouldn’t it be really funny if they went 4-6? What about 4-29? Oh God, I’d love that too. But you and I and everyone knows this is the exact type of game Tom Izzo loves to win every time things look bad. They have an awful month, everyone gives up on ol’ Michigan State, and then they pull one out of nowhere. I’m not getting fooled this time. It’s got 73-67 Michigan State written all over it.
WBB, D2: #8 Pittsburg State at #11 Central Missouri (-1), 2 PM ET, streaming. I’ll level with you here: I know very little about this one, shamefully. But #8 at #11 is inherently interesting regardless of level, and this will find its audience, as it should.
#23 Texas A&M at #1 Houston (-10), 2:30 PM ET, ESPN2. This is a “neutral” site game…in Houston, at the Toyota Center, a scant few miles from Houston’s campus. It’s functionally a home game. Anyway, Texas A&M is now 7-3, but it’s a good 7-3. You’ll take three non-home wins over Ohio State/SMU/Iowa State pretty much any year. None of the three losses are bad. They’re still very good! It’s just that Houston has looked like one of the three best teams in the nation pretty much since the season began.
#27 Ohio State (-3) vs. #44 UCLA, 3 PM ET, CBS.
4-6 PM ET
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK (OF THE YEAR?)
#2 Arizona vs. #3 Purdue (-2), 4:30 PM ET, Peacock. This is the greatest strategy NBC has had yet to sell Peacock to an unwilling audience. At an 89.7 FanMatch rating on KenPom, this is the highest-rated game, period, since the Big Ten Tournament battle between #3 Illinois and #4 Iowa in 2020-21. It’s the highest-rated regular season game since #3 Duke at #6 UNC in 2018-19. And, further back, it’s probably the best non-conference game of any kind since #3 Kentucky vs. #6 UNC in December 2016.
I mean, do you need a preview here? This is #2 vs. #3 in an NBA arena with millions watching. You know this game’s going to be amazing to watch. Best non-conference game anyone’s played in seven years, at minimum, if not further back. You owe it to yourself to settle in for this one. And to find a login.
FIVE STARS
#22 Kentucky vs. #16 North Carolina (-1), 5:30 PM ET, CBS. But in the rare event that Arizona/Purdue is not a great game, this should suffice. Kentucky’s offense has been shockingly fabulous to begin the year, even with a hiccup loss to UNC Wilmington at home. North Carolina’s has been even better and is arguably more sustainable because they’re not needing to shoot 41% from three to keep it going. I find Kentucky fascinating for many reasons, but #1 right now is wondering if the Reed Sheppard thing is Just Linsanity or if he’s actually a superstar.
FOUR STARS
D2: #11 Emporia State at #7 Northwest Missouri (-4.5), 4:30 PM ET, streaming. Sue me, this is a fun one. Two elite year-over-year offenses going at it while the whole world watches something else. If I could afford it, I’d spend an entire season covering D-2 ball because it is fundamentally different and equally beautiful to D-1.
WBB: #18 Baylor (-7.5) vs. #30 Miami (FL), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Delightful little game that, again, probably gets lost in the shuffle. It should not. That Utah team that nearly beat the unflappable South Carolina yesterday has just one loss all year…to this Baylor team, who pretty much controlled the game wire-to-wire. Miami is undefeated and playing really well on both ends. Give this one a shot if you’ve got time.
THREE STARS
#56 Utah State (-2) vs. #64 San Francisco, 4 PM ET, Straight Up Not on Television. I debated putting this on here for very obvious reasons, but this is a game between two of the ~80 best teams in the sport this year and it is simply not televised. Not ESPN+, not the weird fake streaming networks the two conferences have, not even Baller TV. Just not televised! Fascinating stuff.
New Mexico Bowl (New Mexico State vs. Fresno State), 5:45 PM ET, ESPN. Look, even I like a good bowl game. NMSU went 10-4 this year and is merely the most lovable story of the season for me.
6-8 PM ET
FOUR STARS
#30 Cincinnati (-5) vs. #57 Dayton, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This doesn’t carry the same juice to it as the Cincy/Xavier rivalry does, but this is still a game that matters a lot. For Cincinnati, now a Big 12 card-carrier, this is a game you really cannot lose after losing for the fifth time in a row to Xavier. For Dayton, you’re in dire need of a signature non-conference win as you head into an Atlantic 10 slate that you really need to come out on top of. This game is going to have a ton of nervous energy to it, which usually means a very physical basketball game with lots of heat and anger.
WBB: #55 Cleveland State vs. #4 Iowa (-20.5), 7 PM ET, BTN. Cleveland State is probably going to make the NCAA Tournament as a 12 seed and possibly an 11. They’re very, very good, and their offense is crushing it at the moment. They will not win this game, but it is a great offense. This got four stars because it’s Caitlin Clark.
THREE STARS
#102 Southern Illinois at #109 Wichita State (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. For what it is, it’s a pretty good game. This used to be an MVC battle but is now a non-conference affair; it still has some heat to it. SIU and WSU had some amazing back-and-forth battles in the 2000s, and with SIU coming in well above what I expected (WSU is also looking alright), this should be a fun one.
8-10 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#13 Alabama at #6 Creighton (-5), 8 PM ET, FOX. This is one of the best games of the year in its own right, just because of the two offenses involved. You know what you’re getting here: a billion threes, a billion fastbreak opportunities, and a ton of great offensive sets by both coaches. You do not need a sell here. Watch the game.
LATE
FOUR STARS
#70 NC State vs. #9 Tennessee (-10), 10 PM ET, ESPN2. A preview will come for this one on Saturday. Just know that DJ Burns is somehow still at NC State, that Tennessee’s offense has legitimately turned the corner into a future top 20ish unit, and that this game is likely going to be annoying for one/both teams.
THREE STARS
#99 Arizona State at #38 TCU (-8), 10 PM ET, ESPNU. If you like basketball but wish that it could be the most annoying, unenjoyable sport in the world, you should watch this game instead.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 17
FOUR STARS
#60 Nebraska at #46 Kansas State (-5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Not a bad game at all! This will get swallowed up by whatever the NFL provides during this time slot, but it is what it is. This Nebraska offense is so, so fun to watch, and I adore that Keisei Tominaga now has real help. Kansas State’s been underwhelming but Tylor Perry has lived up to the hype for me at a high-major level.
WBB: #16 Creighton (-6.5) at #66 Drake, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Also not a bad game at all! The Creighton women have looked really, really good thus far, potentially giving Creighton the edge nationally down the road in best combined men’s/women’s teams of the 2023-24 season. I still think UConn’s your leader in that regard and Gonzaga will have a strong say in it, but this is a very healthy athletics program. On the other side, though, stands a Drake team shooting 58% from two and scoring 81 a game. It’s going to be very entertaining, no matter what happens.
THREE STARS
#40 USC at #11 Auburn (-9), 1 PM ET, ESPN. This is the back half of a home-and-home that started last year with an Auburn road loss to USC, which sort of spelled out the negative endgame for an underwhelming Auburn team. I think the endgame may already be spelled out for USC, which is that they don’t do much of anything very well, but we’ll see.
WBB: #61 South Dakota State at #17 Gonzaga (-10), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. South Dakota State is unfortunately not a fun team to watch this year; they’ve really struggled to find themselves offensively. But they’re still a frisky group, and this Gonzaga team can play their way into a good game any time they’d like. They rank 11th in unadjusted offensive efficiency…and 290th in unadjusted defensive efficiency. God bless ‘em.
#61 Nevada (-2) at #108 Hawaii, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Well, someone will watch it. In all seriousness, Hawaii has only played one real opponent thus far (Utah, 13-point loss), but they’re 7-1 and this is a great opportunity to see how real that record might be.