Week 6 Watchlist: Steam May Rise

December 14: day of the year contender?

The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week

On Friday I shared my take that we might be in for a historic year from the SEC, who currently sits on pace to have the best year of any conference since the 2003-04 ACC. Here is that link:

Is the 2024-25 SEC the greatest conference in modern history?

The SEC’s Net Rating actually dipped over the weekend despite some marquee wins by its members: Kentucky over Gonzaga in essentially a road game, Missouri over Kansas, Texas A&M over Texas Tech. Those are all great wins! I wouldn’t read much into, if at all, about a tiny dip in efficiency when the wins are this good. I would also arguably welcome a small step back in performance, because so far:

The gap between the SEC and everyone else in performance against top-100 teams is so steep that I’d prefer others to catch up. There are maybe eight people (shoutout to Josh Terry) that subscribe to this newsletter AND watch NASCAR, but it reminds me of a Talladega race a few years ago where Stewart-Haas had the best cars in the field by far and spent the entire day with their four-car team trading blows at the front of the field a mile ahead of everyone else. It was very boring to watch.

I don’t think this is that, of course. The SEC has actual exciting teams to watch pretty much across the entire conference. I think that South Carolina is a somewhat dull watch, and teams like LSU just don’t stand out in any direction to get me going. But even the flops are pretty interesting. Texas shouldn’t be as middling as it looks, and neither should Arkansas. I think that’s exciting in its own way.

So: after an SEC football season in which a bunch of teams with great recruiting ratings played exceptionally dull games en route to exceptionally dull outcomes en route to three of their 16 (!) teams making the 12-team field, you get a basketball season where almost everyone is a live body and every game is pretty exciting to watch. With all preseason priors removed, the SEC has five (!!!!) of the top eight offenses in the sport and eight of the top 25. This may be the one acceptable mega-conference you’ll see in your lifetime.

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Anyway, here is the Watchlist. As a reminder, we have a new scoring system this year to simplify things a bit. The A/B/C scale is here.

• A GAMES are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ GAME every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.

• B GAMES are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.

• C GAMES are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.

• We hope to never get to D or F GAMES this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All D2/D3 lines are from Massey Ratings. NEW! All lines for women’s games are via Bart Torvik. Watchlists are always free, so subscribe here to avoid missing one.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 9

The good news: perhaps the single best day of the season is this week. The bad news: One of the worst days of the season is today.

A GAME

None. Even MNF is kinda bad.

B GAME

The Simpsons Monday Night Football Thing on Whatever Channel. I’m not gonna pretend that I will be watching much, but for 15 minutes I will be interested. Works for me.

C GAMES

NCAAW: #47 George Mason (-2.5) at #86 Georgetown, 7 PM ET, Flo Sports. Interesting enough game to get listed. GMU is chasing its first ever Tournament bid and a win here would really, really help. Georgetown isn’t good but is at home, which counts.

#170 Hofstra at #143 Norfolk State (-5), 7 PM ET, radio. Look, when I have to recommend a game on radio for a watchlist you know it’s rough. But Norfolk looks like they’ve got their best team under Robert Jones, and therefore, possibly their best team in school history. Serious shot at being the first MEAC team to not be a 16 seed in 11 years.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10

A GAME

#37 Wisconsin at #19 Illinois (-6), 9 PM ET, Peacock. There are games that are sort of no-duh bangers you’ve gotta promote. I think of this as one. I am unconvinced that Wisconsin is very good, to be honest, but as a Tournament-ish team they make sense. I like Illinois and feel like they haven’t scratched the surface of how good they might be able to be. That makes this game really interesting for me, because Greg Gard is actually quite good as a road dog and the one other good offense Illinois has played left the Illini in a smoldering heap. I’d still favor Illinois for the obvious Is The Better Team reasoning and for the reason this might be a Shot Volume blowout, but TBD. Big Ten conference hoops always provides some odd results.

B GAMES

NCAAW: #54 Ball State at #13 Ohio State (-14), 6 PM ET, BTN+. Lighter night on the women’s side - this is the only game I found very interesting - but Ball State hoops is demanding some attention. They beat Texas A&M on a neutral by 13, hung with top-20 UNC for most of their game, have no bad losses, and have played like a top-45 team with all preseason priors removed. BSU’s PG Ally Becki plays a very enjoyable brand of Chaos Ball.

#33 Penn State (-2) at #74 Rutgers, 7 PM ET, Peacock. There’s nothing I hate more than overly obvious narratives, because they’re usually pushed by media types that can’t think of a more creative look into a game. And yet: since 2017, Rutgers is an astonishing 24-10-1 ATS as a home dog. Sometimes you gotta tip the cap to the most boring takes because they’re sometimes very right.

#45 Arkansas vs. #22 Michigan (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN. It seems like people are waiting for John Calipari to flip the switch with a roster that has glaring holes and has managed to make one of the most exciting players in basketball (Johnell Davis) a role player. There are times in life I suggest taking a team as exactly what it tells you it is: a First Four participant and the 11th-best team in its own conference.

C GAMES

#99 Miami (FL) vs. #2 Tennessee (-15), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. Through no fault of its own Tennessee has managed to draw a pretty dull schedule thus far save for their game with Baylor. At the time it was proposed Tennessee/Virginia made a lot of sense as a battle between two similarly-styled programs with legacy coaches. Tennessee/Syracuse was stupid from the beginning but at least ‘Cuse kept it close for 35 minutes last year. This is the biggest and most unfortunate whiff: a preseason top-40ish Miami team that pretty clearly won’t make the Tournament and gives strong vibes of quiet quitting from top to bottom.

#84 Rhode Island (-6) at #189 Brown, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I am begrudgingly offering respect through gritted teeth to Archie Miller for finally turning the corner at URI. Now, to see if the same thing that happens every single time I let my guard down for Archieball happens here.

#119 Troy at #5 Houston (-19), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. No confidence whatsoever this will be close but Troy’s wonky defensive system will force Houston’s wobbly offense to figure some things out. I remain confident they can and will, of course.

#81 Providence at #97 DePaul (-2), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Kim English, you really do not want to lose this game. I am simply sharing my opinion with a friend.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11

A GAME

None. It’s a Champions League day baby.

B GAME

D2: #102 Charleston (WV) at #9 West Liberty (-7.5), 7:30 PM ET, streaming. This was more exciting before Charleston started 5-4 but it’s still exciting. I have waxed poetically about West Liberty’s style of ball in the past, but Charleston games have averaged a total of 168 points thus far. They’ve had games end with scores of 112-103 and 122-119.

NCAAW: #37 Iowa State at #21 Iowa (-7), 9 PM ET, FS1. Rare is a road game against a (possibly) superior rival a must-win but it feels that way for Iowa State. I don’t think you can get blown off the court by South Carolina and Northern Iowa and feel great about yourselves headed into a pretty tough Big 12.

C GAMES

NCAAW: #82 Wisconsin at #89 Butler (-2), 7 PM ET, Flo Sports. Boy, would it be nice for teams to play games and put them on streaming services that don’t suck. Maybe in 2035.

NAIA: Northwestern (IA) at Morningside, 8:45 PM ET, streaming. I have very little context to offer here: it’s two of the 20 or so best NAIA teams and you can generally find some good ballers at this level.

#116 South Dakota State at #55 Nevada (-10), 10 PM ET, MWN. My sell for this: “it might be interesting.”

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12

A+ GAME OF THE WEEK

NCAAW: #2 UConn (-0.5) at #3 Notre Dame, 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is so obviously the game of the week (and, so far, year) that there’s little to do but point at it and appreciate its existence. Well done on both parties for ensuring this happens. A further well done to Auburn and Duke for destroying my potential point about men’s college basketball’s failings here, as that game was terrific, too.

This is a largely even game that will be decided on a pair of pretty thin margins for me beyond the obvious shot-variance points. UConn’s barely gotten to the line at all this season, ranking 359th in FT Rate in Division I. This is not due to a lack of trying - 36% of all UConn shots are at the rim - but they simply haven’t drawn a ton of contact this year. Notre Dame is one of the best rim denial defenses in the nation and forces a lot of midrange twos thanks to a heavy drop coverage. UConn has shot extremely well off the dribble this year but has barely had to do so at all because most opponents have been overwhelmed for 40 minutes. Unlikely here.

On the flipside, UConn is the best rim denial defense in the nation, which is problematic for a Notre Dame team that has 53% of their field goal points at the rim this year, per Synergy. But Notre Dame also is one of the best jump-shooting teams in the nation despite their limited volume, and if UConn packs it in only to leave Olivia Miles or Sonia Citron or Hannah Hidalgo open all night, this could get shot-varianced in Notre Dame’s favor really quickly. I love this game because I think I know how it’ll go (1-5 point UConn win) but don’t feel very confident.

A GAME

#6 Iowa State (-5) at #46 Iowa, 7:30 PM ET, FS1. You know the games that don’t really mean much to either team’s season but mean an awful lot to a team’s fans? I love those games. This is one. Iowa State is in a pretty good resume spot with wins over Dayton and Marquette, and while this is a nice-to-have a loss here is by no means destructive. Iowa kinda really needs this but also doesn’t because there’s 11 more opportunities for Quad 1 wins left, per Torvik. I still love this because they hate each other and both have weaknesses that play into the other team’s strengths.

B GAME

NFL: Rams at 49ers, 8:15 PM ET, Prime. One completely indefensible thing I started doing in 2024 was listening to Bill Simmons again. What can I say? I’m white, 31, and I love hearing Bill compare the 49ers’ disastrous 2024 to a scene in The Town or something. I’ll regrettably watch some of this.

C GAME

#178 UT Arlington at #129 Arkansas State (-6), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Maybe I’m dumb but I can’t quit Arkansas State just yet. Just feels like they’re way too talented to be 313th in eFG%?

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 13

A GAME

NCAAW: #22 Stanford at #30 Cal (PK), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. First time in a while I’ve looked at a game and had to remember it IS still a conference game. Nice to know. These are two very evenly-matched teams with two diverse paths to victory: Stanford via dominating the boards and paint, Cal via turnovers and threes. I like Stanford’s depth more but Cal’s combo of Ionna Krimili and Lulu Twidale is fierce.

B GAME

#44 Indiana at #61 Nebraska (-1), 8 PM ET, FOX. Indiana sorely needs this. If they don’t get it, you’re looking at a team with a 10-3 record (fine) with zero wins over teams that will be sniffing this year’s Tournament (less fine) entering conference play. Would sure be interesting to see how Indiana’s 2023-24 started.

The key difference this year is doing a better job of pantsing bad teams, but hard to say much when you’ve flopped hard against the two good teams.

C GAMES

NCAAW: #85 BYU at #92 Washington State (-1.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Not a conference game. BYU freshman Delaney Gibb is terrific.

#116 South Dakota State at #77 Colorado (-8), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. My theory is that South Dakota State makes one of their two games this week interesting but not both. I have no clue which it’ll be.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14

Deep breaths. As of now I’ve got this as the...fourth? best day of the season. Go take a look at January 11 when you have time to see the very best, because my goodness. February 11 and January 7 also rip.

A GAMES

#20 UCLA ‘at’ #29 Arizona (-1), 3 PM ET, ESPN2. Still a rivalry. Don’t care what conferences they are or aren’t in. Frustrating that this is a neutral-site game at the Suns arena but welcome to college sports. I’ll go to the grave with this Arizona team as being heavily due for better results. Against a top-50 schedule strength they’re +4.2 per 100 possessions in turnover margin, hold a +10% 2PT% delta, and are demolishing teams on the boards. Why are they 4-4? Pretty obvious: they’re shooting 31.6% from three and opponents are at 35.6%. I still think they’re capable of being top-15.

#2 Tennessee (-3) at #15 Illinois, 5:30 PM ET, FOX. If there were a second A+ Game of the Week it would’ve been this. This is going to be extremely fun. Tennessee’s offense has looked suspiciously awesome through the first month, now grading out as a top-10 unit on every metrics site with their usual excellent defense to boot.

The only defense to even somewhat slow down Tennessee was Virginia, who played the perimeter very aggressively and forced a lot of midrange twos. Illinois plays mostly drop coverage but funnels everything to the midrange. If Tennessee is serious this year about hitting jumpers at the rate they have so far, I like their chances. Otherwise, probably worth noting Brad Underwood is 15-9-1 ATS as an underdog post-COVID.

#9 Marquette (-1) at #33 Dayton, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Old-school Atlantic 10 battle. Dayton’s barn has a deserved reputation of being insanely hard to win at, which makes it less surprising that this is (potentially) their first time being an underdog at home since January 2022. I like the styles battle here: both teams are rim-and-three types, but Marquette actively funnels teams to the paint while Dayton forces a ton of pull-up jumpers. Shot variance, as usual, will be huge.

#4 Gonzaga (-4) vs. #26 UConn, 8 PM ET, FOX. I LOVE when (exciting game) is at (NBA arena I’m supposed to like)! It’s definitely better than playing at (home team’s arena) or (road team’s arena). Of course, this is basically a home game for UConn considering their fanbase + historic dominance of all things MSG. My problem is less with that and more with UConn’s defensive structure not being the style that typically stymies Gonzaga’s offense. Gonzaga has more issues with those who don’t allow catch-and-shoot jumpers and/or play heavy drop coverage. UConn does the latter but is openly weak in P&R coverage right now.

#35 Saint Mary’s (-1) vs. #56 Boise State, 9 PM ET, Network TBD. It’s five days out from this game and it STILL says on each team’s site that this is going to be televised somewhere. I think. If it is, you’re in for a treat. These are two of the four or five best mid-major programs running. SMC has their usual outstanding defense; Boise has a powerful-if-streaky offense that dumped 84 on a good Clemson team but has now lost to Boston College and Washington State. Hopefully you can watch this. Somewhere.

B GAMES

#41 Memphis at #17 Clemson (-7), 11 AM ET, ESPN2. Shoutout to Games That Start a Full Hour Before All Other Games. One of my favorite things. Clemson’s defense is now ranked 5th at KenPom, which both feels bizarre and at least somewhat legitimate. They force super-long possessions, have the 43rd-highest turnover rate, and don’t foul frequently. They force more dribble jumpers than nearly anyone, which is why I like Memphis to win this. Memphis ranks in the 97th-percentile of dribble jumper attempts and the 98th-percentile in makes. This is also why I think Memphis could lose by 31, because shooting 11% above expectation (as they are) on these shots seems very unsustainable!

#22 Texas A&M vs. #13 Purdue (-3), 12 PM ET, CBS. Interesting battle here between one very well-designed offense with two legitimate star talents and one deeply unenjoyable offense that still scores a lot of points thanks to rebounds and fouls.

#1 Auburn (-9) vs. #28 Ohio State, 1 PM ET, ESPN2. The two or three weeks where all were convinced of Star Coach Jake Diebler was a fun time. Anyway, there’s a path to this being really interesting but it requires Ohio State to do two things they can sometimes and sometimes not do: make dribble jumpers (hello, Meechie Johnson and Bruce Thornton) and score out of the P&R as the ball-handler (hello again, Meechie Johnson and Bruce Thornton). I’ll say this: Ohio State can absolutely score 80 here. They could also give up 95.

#65 Xavier at #15 Cincinnati (-10), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This projects to be the largest spread in this game since at least 2012 (Cincinnati favored by 9) or 2007 (Xavier by 19), and unfortunately, the Crosstown Shootout probably delivers more pre and post-game than it does during. But! Xavier has won five in a row in this rivalry, Cincinnati’s still due some more shooting regression, and I’ve absolutely seen weirder. That being said I’ll go with UC by 7, why not.

#8 Florida (-7) vs. #50 Arizona State, 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. I don’t want to take Arizona State seriously, so I’m not going to. I also don’t want to take Florida seriously as a top-10 team but even with some statistical regression built in they come out as something like the 12th-17th best team in the sport. This is also a gigantic coaching mismatch in Florida’s favor but ASU’s crazy talented.

#53 UC Irvine at #72 Oregon State (-1), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Serious shoutout to both of these two teams, who have come in well above expectation. Any Big West team being a threat to crack the KP top 50 is pretty nuts; they’d be the first since 2011-12 Long Beach State to do it. Oregon State might be the third-best team in the WCC in year one? Very cool and fun game all around.

#51 Louisville at #10 Kentucky (-12), 5:15 PM ET, ESPN. All I’ll say here is that it would be very, very funny if Louisville won.

NCAAW: #49 Middle Tennessee vs. #6 Kansas State (-15.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. This K-State team has serious wagon energy about them; they are basically flawless thus far minus a 73-62 loss to Duke where they got outshot 47%-20% from three. Every other game has been a massacre. If MTSU keeps it close it’s a great sign for them.

#40 Creighton at #7 Alabama (-11), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Boy, do I not like the chances of a game Nate Oats has had 10 (!) days to prepare for being a fun and exciting one, but here’s hoping. Creighton can hit a lot of threes.

NCAAW: #27 Utah (-1) at #43 Washington, 9:30 PM ET, BTN. This is a level 3 Must Win Situation for Washington, who owns an awful road loss to Montana and zero good non-conference wins heading into a meat-grinder Big Ten. Utah is relatively fine in this regard, particularly with their win over Notre Dame, but this is a great nice-to-have heading into Big 12 play.

C GAMES

#123 Texas State at #100 FAU (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Fun matchup here between two top-four teams in two mid-major conferences. Conference tournaments can go any which way, so you could see both or neither in a Tournament field.

NCAAW: #30 Creighton (-8.5) at #100 Green Bay, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. New HC Kayla Karius is struggling at UWGB thus far; a win here would be a potential season-saver.

#90 Georgetown at #105 Syracuse (-2), 2:30 PM ET, ACC Network. Interesting matchup of two bad basketball teams with second-year coaches that are starting to show the flop sweat. Georgetown should probably feel worse with a loss than Syracuse.

#37 Wisconsin (-2) vs. #62 Butler, 2:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network.

The above are Butler’s stats so far this year, which should help explain how a team is 7-2 despite having one of the worst turnover margins in the nation.

#67 Bradley (-2) vs. #88 Santa Clara, 2:30 PM ET, BALLERTV. It’s back, folks. Bradley is shooting 46.4% (!) from three…and allowing a 27.9% hit rate from deep. I would be interested to see a sort of heat map of who believes these numbers are sustainable.

#70 NC State at #11 Kansas (-12), 3 PM ET, ESPN. A matchup of two teams that have made a Final Four more recently than Kentucky.

NCAAW: #51 Belmont vs. #26 Mississippi State (-6), 3 PM ET, SECN+. Relatively low-stakes for each, but I’m intrigued to see what happens when a good Belmont team who’s played a very hard schedule has some 3PT regression go their way. Sitting at a -6.4% 3PT delta as of now.

NCAAW: #68 Northern Iowa at #48 South Dakota State (-5.5), 3 PM ET, Midco Sports Plus. Almost no one who reads this newsletter can watch this game but if you can, let me know how good UNI’s Maya McDermott looks. Her stats are nuts: 122 ORtg on 33% USG, 53% from three, career 90.3% at the FT line.

#51 LSU ‘at’ #53 SMU (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPNU. Finally, the question everyone has been begging for an answer to: what is the most Independence Bowl basketball game you can think of?

#86 St. Bonaventure vs. #81 Providence (-1), 5 PM ET, CBSSN. Kim, I’m telling you as a friend: you HAVE to win this one.

NCAAW: #45 Kentucky (-2.5) at #84 Purdue, 5 PM ET, BTN. Purdue is what I would call the Fleetingly Frisky style of basketball team: nowhere near good enough to hang with elites, but good enough to hang with a Kentucky or MTSU or Maryland for 38 minutes before faltering late.

#95 McNeese State vs. #26 Mississippi State (-10), 6 PM ET, ESPNU. Very funny game. You could argue that McNeese actually has the more purely talented roster of the two, but Chris Jans (as of now) feels like the coach getting way more out of what he has available.

#106 Colorado State vs. #40 VCU (-7), 7:30 PM ET, BALLERTV. I went scrolling on BallerTV’s Instagram page to see if anything interesting way there. And: huh!

Well, alright. Good for them. This game is on.

#42 Oklahoma (-5) vs. #85 Oklahoma State, 8 PM ET, ESPNU. I’d care more about this if it wasn’t at a neutral site, but here we are. Frankly it was way funnier and cooler when Oklahoma State saw OU off on the football field in the best fashion possible.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 15

A GAMES

NCAAW: #21 Iowa at #25 Michigan State (-2), 12 PM ET, BTN. This is a slightly diminished version of last year’s fantastic battle between the two, but it still counts as a must-watch. I feel that Iowa actually looks a little better defensively than on offense right now, but when these two teams tangle it’s usually explosive and fun. I think Iowa has the best player in this game in Lucy Olsen, but MSU’s offensive depth is better at the moment and the giant shot volume edge they’ve exercised thus far could be hard to break.

NFL: Bills at Lions, 4:25 PM ET, CBS. I noticed some people that were very, very mad at the Lions for going for it on fourth and one against the Packers on Thursday night. In terms of win probability added the field goal was probably the superior choice. But: I am not sure a single person alive actively desired to give the ball back to Jordan Love, especially with a beat-up defense? I thought it was obvious to go for it. Anyway, this is the NFL Game of the Year.

B GAMES

NCAAW: #16 NC State (-3.5) at #40 Louisville, 1 PM ET, ABC. I’m not exactly sure why or how it seems to be going south for Jeff Walz at Louisville, and to be fair, they did make an Elite Eight all of 20 months ago, but a 5 seed-6 seed-10? seed run after the decade they had prior is alarming. They have no bad losses at 5-4, but Louisville used to at least beat one of the big opponents on their schedule. This is a sorely needed win if they can get it.

NCAAW: #4 Texas (-12) at #41 Richmond, 1 PM ET, ESPN+. This Richmond team has been fantastic thus far this year, is shooting the lights out offensively, and plays some of the most beautiful basketball at any level of WBB. This is the beginning of a three-game run of Texas, Tennessee, and Alabama, all at home or neutral sites. If they can steal one win among those three they’re legitimized that much more.

NCAAW: #29 Georgia Tech at #15 North Carolina (-6.5), 2 PM ET, ACC Network. After I heard about a secret scrimmage in October in which the Lady Vols defeated preseason top 15 UNC by 17, I wondered if it meant UNC might be significantly worse than expected or Tennessee significantly better. Turns out it’s probably the latter, as UNC has looked great thus far and is a bizarre free throw problem (60.1% at the line, 339th-best) away from more or less having no obvious warts. They’ve got, at worst, one of the four best defenses in the sport.

#58 San Francisco (-3) vs. #82 Loyola Chicago, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Can’t say I get why this is being played in Milwaukee, but whatever. Loyola is undefeated but has actually dropped a couple spots from their preseason KenPom rank thanks to close calls against Southern Utah and South Florida, not to mention an opening night 79-72 sweatfest with Chicago State. I think this looks more or less like a Loyola team: very good defensively, generically good on offense with no star. USF looks the part of a bubble team, and I am all the way in on one Malik Thomas. Thank you to USC for mis-using him and making sure he ended up somewhere more interesting.

C GAMES

NCAAW: #74 South Florida at #1 South Carolina (-27), 2 PM ET, SEC Network. This won’t be competitive but seeing as it’s the Gamecocks’ last game against somewhat okay competition until January it has to be listed.

NCAAW: #72 James Madison at #64 Villanova (-4), 2 PM ET, Flo Sports. Can’t watch. However! Jasmine Bascoe, Villanova’s freshman point guard, is a future star as soon as she figures out turnovers.

NCAAW: #46 Penn State at #60 Kansas (-0.5), 3 PM ET, ESPNU. These two teams have played roughly the same quality of schedule so far. Penn State is +11.1 on offensive rebounds per 100 possessions; Kansas is -3.4. Something to watch for in an otherwise dead-even game!

#112 Arkansas State at #132 UAB (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. I’ve been thoroughly underwhelmed by UAB this year, but I thought the same about Ark State before they smoked Memphis on the road yesterday. Perhaps this is UAB’s get-right opportunity.