Week 7 Watchlist: Seven Scattered Thoughts and/or Swans
Games to panic-buy gifts to
Hello and welcome to the Watchlist, a weekly column here at the Substack where I cover what I think are the best games at all levels of college hoops in a given week. We generally start with an essay, though this week is a hair different.
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
In the absence of a normal essay this week, given that Christmas is just around the corner, I thought this might be a good time to look back. After all, I have been given Spotify Wrapped, Strava Wrapped, and Substack Wrapped. Why not Stats By Will Wrapped?
Well, the last one would be terribly self-indulgent. Instead, to celebrate the seventh week of the season, here’s seven thoughts on the season thus far. As a bonus, if you’re a free subscriber, I’ve got a good deal for you: the Christmas Special. Everyone who signs up for a paid subscription between now and December 26th gets 50% off, or $15, for a full year’s worth of my writing. I think it’s a good deal. You can go below:
Or I think to the normal thing below.
This post is free, but most, such as tomorrow’s post on how Ja’Vier Francis of Houston is turning their defense into a monstrous unit, are not. Sign up and I think you’ll enjoy what you get. Onward!
1. Your overall 1 seed is, as predicted, going to be Purdue. The Boilermakers have the #1 resume by a mile right now. Hoop-Explorer’s Wins Above Bubble metric has Purdue at +4.7; no other team in America is even above +3. Like it or not, you get to hear about this team all year long because they stared down a wild non-conference schedule and barring a crazy upset, went 11-0 against it. They own wins over four of the current top 10 KenPom teams. They play in a Big Ten with four other locked-in NCAAT teams in it. It’s not at all unreasonable to think that they’re going to be something like 30-4 on Selection Sunday; it would require a nuts performance by someone else to beat them out.
2. The actual best team is probably Houston. I think. I don’t really know. But if forced to name a team I think it’s these guys. I think there’s still room to roam for them offensively, which is pretty nuts to say about a team nearly in KenPom’s top 15 of adjusted offensive efficiency. Their defense is the best I’ve seen in a long time and isn’t enjoying 3PT% inflation; they’re really that good. A terrifying team to play against and the current Big 12 favorite.
3. The most fun teams to watch this year: Gannon (D2, MBB) and Utah (D1, WBB). A little explanation: these are just the two best offenses. I haven’t talked about Gannon much yet on here; they’re a small Catholic school in Pennsylvania that is playing the most entertaining basketball of anyone in America right now. They’re averaging 111.3 PPG, shoot 56% on twos/41% on threes, and have yet to score less than 91 in a game this season. Their schedule blows and they play in the D2 equivalent of the MAAC, but fun is fun and I do recommend seeking out their games.
Utah is more well-known and simply plays beautiful, beautiful basketball. I’ve done my part to sell them this year, and given that they play in the best conference in women’s hoops, they’ll have plenty of signature games they play in this winter.
4. This is the most entertaining season of college basketball in years. Some stats, all via KenPom, as of the time of writing.
Through 41 days, teams are posting the second-highest collective offensive efficiency in 28 seasons on record.
Non-steal turnovers are far and away the lowest in basketball history.
At 50.2%, teams are posting the second-highest 2PT% on record.
At 70.8%, free throws are going in more often than ever.
At 69.4 possessions per game, on average, this would be the fastest average pace since 2002-03 if it holds for three more months.
We’re on pace for the highest average PPG since 2017-18.
Lastly, the problem of the top 5-10 teams sucking (as they did last year) seems less prominent than in 2022-23. All of Houston-Arizona (the top four teams) would have ranked #1 last year.
That doesn’t touch on numerous upsets (nine <5% upsets thus far; eight at this time last season), a really good non-conference slate with 17 80+ FanMatch games (16 last season) with more to come, and a general sensation that no one is untouchable but not because everyone sucks. I’m having the most fun I’ve had watching college basketball in a long while. I’m hoping it holds.
5. The Coach of the Year of November/December is Tommy Lloyd but Ben Johnson at Minnesota should be #2. Lloyd had to remake most of his roster in the offseason and has a legitimate top-four team, which is noteworthy. But I think Johnson’s work thus far is also impressive, if only because he’d dug such a deep hole I did not imagine he would get out of it. Minnesota is inside the KenPom top 100 for the first time since March 2021, owns a nice win over Nebraska, and is quietly 8-3 with two likely non-con wins incoming. 10-3 and 1-1 B1G doesn’t leap off the page, but when you went 9-22 last year and were 6-33 in the Big Ten through two seasons, this is a serious improvement. Minnesota has pretty easily the least-talented roster in the Big Ten but I’d be very surprised if they finished last.
6. An intriguing shift happening: William and Mary completely making over their offense. William and Mary have never made the NCAA Tournament and rank 310th in KenPom at the moment, so a rational observer would wonder why they’d possibly be relevant to this newsletter. An answer: no team has shifted to the rim-and-three game more heavily this year from their previous season.
After generally ranking at the national average for years in three-point attempt rate and having a moribund offense, Dane Fischer has stuffed his roster with guys who just let it fly. They’ve jumped from 168th to 8th in 3PA% this year and have their best offense in six seasons. If only they did not have an abominable defense. They’re obviously unlikely to win the CAA, but their extreme level of offensive/defensive variance almost locks them in for a shock upset of one of Hofstra/Delaware/Charleston.
7. An intriguing shift happening on the women’s side: the Glenville State press being brought to Division I at Marshall. Marshall WBB has offered a very limited set of rewards over the years, with one NCAA Tournament bid in program history (1997) and one 20+ win season in the last 35 years. Their latest attempt to gain relevancy is a delightful one.
Glenville State women’s hoops is not a program many people know about, but they should, thanks to the work of Kim Caldwell. Under Caldwell, who took the job at age 27 (!), Glenville State went 191-24 in seven seasons, were the 2021-22 Division 2 champs, and made the last two Final Fours. Marshall, in desperate need of anything to juice their program, hired her away. Caldwell, still just 34 years old, already has 196 career wins under her belt. The way she’s done it is by playing the most exciting style of basketball to hit the women’s D1 side in some time.
At 82 possessions a game, Marshall plays at the fastest pace of any D1 women’s team, built around a full-court press that generates 23 turnovers a night. In a surprise road win over Florida two weeks back, Marshall generated 15 Florida turnovers (their second-highest number of the season) and used the breakneck pace to their advantage, posting 40 free throw attempts against a Florida team that typically allows 21. Marshall’s only 6-4 as of the time of writing, but for the first time in forever, they’re legitimately really interesting, thanks to Caldwell’s system that creates havoc everywhere. I look forward to what they do from here.
All D1 men’s rankings via KenPom. All NCAAW rankings via Her Hoop Stats. Everything else via Massey Ratings.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 18
FIVE STARS
D2: #8 Colorado Mesa vs. #5 West Texas A&M (-3.5), 3 PM ET, streaming. This is another advertisement of sorts for D2 ball, which has some really entertaining top-end teams that play different styles than those at D1. The best way I think I can put it is that the stakes are a little lower but still very high, so there’s more room for experimentation.
Now, neither side here plays a unique style, so perhaps it’s a bad one to point out, but these are two fabulous offenses that play very different styles themselves. Mesa plays a fastbreak-heavy style but takes almost half of their shots from three while rebounding 36.3% of their misses; it’s like last year’s Alabama team. WTA&M plays slower but is similarly efficient on offense; the Buffs hunt a lot of 1-on-1 opportunities to create advantages. Also, this is at 3 PM ET on a Monday and what I’m hearing is that it’s almost Christmas and you’ve got nothing better to do.
NCAAW: #9 UCLA at #12 Ohio State (-2.5), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. What a banger this one is. If you haven’t caught a UCLA game yet you’re missing out; these ladies are dumping in 21 fastbreak points per game and are utterly dominant in the paint (47 points per game!). Every game they play is their own personal race to 90.
OSU unfortunately plays for the most villainous university in the world (non-Ivy/fundamentalist division), but their style of ball is very entertaining too. Lots of handoffs and backdoor cuts…I have a lot of fun watching them play. If you’re not sold on non-South Carolina NCAAW teams this year, you will not be disappointed by watching this one.
FOUR STARS
D2: #6 West Liberty (-6.5) vs. #15 Angelo State, 1 PM ET, FloPoops. I’m so sick of Flo. Go away! And not just the Progressive cinematic universe! You’re ruining everything. Anyway, I’ve been on the West Liberty train for years now, just a really fun team that does the same thing every year and is currently averaging a wild 102 PPG. You cannot get that in Division I, decidedly. Angelo makes their name on the defensive end and does a fabulous job of squeezing teams into the midrange. I think this is an intriguing styles clash at worst; I just wish it wasn’t on FloHoops.
THREE STARS
#137 Oakland at #23 Michigan State (-14), 7 PM ET, BTN. Well, if you’re desperate for D1 I guess you have this. I’m not sure any of these games are any good, but this is the one game with two interesting teams in it. Oakland has mightily overachieved preseason projections and currently rates as a Horizon League co-favorite, while MSU got off the mat with a smashing of Baylor Saturday. Post-COVID, this style of game - coming off of a win, favored-but-not-hugely-favored - has been a minor bugaboo for MSU. Lots of 13-18 point wins, which means this would be close for a while.
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 19
FIVE STARS
D2: #4 Minnesota-Duluth at #3 Minnesota State (-1.5), 7 PM ET, streaming. Were it not for the presence of a certain game that’s going to get its own preview this week, this would’ve been the Six-Star Game of the Week. What a gift this is: two of the five best teams in D2, an in-state rivalry (sorta), a true home environment, and two of the best offenses in the nation. I love this game so much that I wish I could hug it.
If you didn’t read last week’s watchlist, you may not know how enjoyable Minnesota State is to watch. They’re shooting an insane 41% from three and posting an Offensive Rating of 126.7; the best in D-1 at the moment is Alabama’s 126.9. That should be enough of a sell on them. Duluth is less ridiculously efficient, but they’ve been dominant in the paint thus far (42.5 PPG) and have a fascinating main five where every player is between 6’4” and 6’6”. Most intriguing is that the two 6’6” guys post up all the time and create a lot of mismatches against taller, slower opponents.
This is also a very good coaching matchup: Justin Wieck (former Iowa player) of Duluth, who is 61-18 over the last 2.5 seasons, versus the inevitable Matt Margenthaler, now in his 23rd season coaching Minnesota State. Wieck has some rising star vibes to him, but you gotta beat the master first.
FOUR STARS
D3: #3 Hampden-Sydney (-1.5) at #11 John Carroll, 2 PM ET, streaming. This is a midday game between two D3 title contenders, both of whom have top-10ish offenses and entirely different approaches to the game. John Carroll exclusively pounds the paint, but H-S has a more diverse approach. Fun!
#30 Virginia at #31 Memphis (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Say it with me, everyone: Memphis Is Good. It’s true! They’re a very good basketball team. Do they have real flaws? Of course they do, and I am far from convinced of their offense. But they are a good all-around team, and this profiles as a fun styles-make-fights game. These are two completely polar opposite approaches, but they achieve almost the exact same KenPom ranking.
#6 Marquette (-5) at #50 Providence, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. This is Kim English’s first Big East home game at Providence, and what a way to open it up. Marquette has been really good as a road team under Shaka, and I have some fears about how Providence’s very buggy offense is going to handle a Marquette group that forces turnovers in bunches. A thing of plausible note: Marquette is 9-6 against top-25 defenses over the last two seasons…and 29-3 against everyone else.
THREE STARS
#38 Florida (-1) vs. #44 Michigan, 7 PM ET, ESPN. I do not enjoy watching either of these teams play, but given a projected score of 81-80 I am required to recommend it. Maybe just wait to tune in until one of these two teams blows a double-digit lead to the other.
NCAAW: #33 North Carolina (-4) vs. #59 Oklahoma, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Another styles clash: 69 average possessions a game (UNC) versus 81 (Oklahoma). Oklahoma badly needs a second signature non-conference win to solidify their March resume, as 6-3 with a 2-3 record against top-100 teams likely won’t cut it.
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 20
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
#9 Alabama at #4 Arizona (-7), 11 PM ET, ESPN. This is the current highest-rated game of the entire season at Torvik, which makes sense when the projected score is 92-85. It is a shame this will be at 11 PM local for me, but who doesn’t love a good sacrifice for personal joy. A more full preview of this game will drop on Wednesday morning, so enjoy. All I can say for now: lock the heck in, baby.
FIVE STARS
#18 Oklahoma at #20 North Carolina (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPN. If you can’t hang all the way until 11, which, fair, you got this. Oklahoma’s defense is the superior unit to their offense, but these are two teams that want to play fast offensively and an Oklahoma team that’s been dominant at the rim on both ends. When you look at OU’s roster, you wouldn’t think that they’ve got much of anything in the way of dominance, but they’re very well-coached and a pretty tight unit. There’s no obvious #1 option, which makes them a hard scout because any of four players can go off on a given night.
Meanwhile I hope you got to see a good bit of UNC’s game on Saturday; that was so dadgummed fun dude. I cannot get enough of RJ Davis, who is a legitimate star. UNC finally has actual depth on their roster for the first time in Hubert’s reign, too, which means that when/if they go to the bench there isn’t a shocking dropoff like there has been in past years. Fun!
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #47 Arizona vs. #18 Gonzaga (-6), 4:30 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Well, no one can watch this, but if you can, good way to end your workday. Gonzaga is great to watch because they want to win every game 82-75; Arizona would prefer a defense-first battle that doesn’t highlight an offense with very limited shooting options.
#14 Baylor vs. #12 Duke (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is Ken’s FanMatch game of the day, which is fine, but the appeal is a little lost on me unless you like the uniforms. Baylor’s profile is absolutely begging for regression on both ends, while Duke seems hellbent on making things as difficult as possible for themselves. The only enjoyable player to watch on their roster is Kyle Filipowski, unless you’re more into Jeremy Roach than I am.
#27 Villanova at #11 Creighton (-6), 9 PM ET, FS1. Villanova has the strangest resume of anyone right now: 3-1 against Quad 1 opponents, 4-1 against Quad 1 and Quad 2, but with three losses against Quadrant 3. I have no clue what to expect here, but Creighton is extremely enjoyable to watch offensively and that seems like it’s pretty stable night-over-night. The Wildcats are so volatile that they could win this by double digits or lose by 20+.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #39 Washington at #27 Louisville (-8.5), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. This could reasonably be higher, but at the same time, these are two of the best defenses in the sport battling one another. I trust Washington’s offense a little more just because they can shoot it, but these are two teams that are happy to make their name on the other end of the court. Feels like a game with a final score in the 60s.
#61 UC Irvine at #35 New Mexico (-6), 9 PM ET, Mountain West Network. If you google the MWC Network, I think it’s free to watch online. Anyway! This is going to get lost on a crowded night of hoops but it’s a good one. The problem is that every UC Irvine game turns into a defensive battle where the opponent cannot score down low and UCI themselves cannot hit many shots.
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 21
FOUR STARS
#109 Wichita State vs. #46 Kansas State (-6), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Of the plausible options here, this is the only one that has some amount of rivalry heat to it. Both Kansas and Kansas State actively look for ways to avoid playing Wichita, though Wichita’s star has obviously fallen post-Gregg Marshall. This is a rare regular season game between Wichita and either of the Big Two (WSU also plays Kansas next weekend), and Paul Mills could really use an early signature win.
THREE STARS
#75 Saint Joseph’s (-2) at #122 Charleston, 7 PM ET, FloPoops. Well, it’s Flo again. This is a game I would be way more interested in if I weren’t dramatically down from last year on Charleston’s offense, which has lost its shooting prowess. When your two best players are combining to shoot 25% from three, it’s a hard life.
NCAAW: #60 South Dakota State at #17 Creighton (-8.5), 7 PM ET, FloPoops. Alas. Serious credit to South Dakota State, who makes their fourth appearance on the watchlist this year. They simply keep scheduling interesting games!
#78 Boise State vs. #66 Washington State (-3), 11 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. If you’re up late, you could do way, way worse. I don’t trust Boise’s offense at all but their defense is as sound as usual, while Washington State legitimately might have something this year behind a heavily improved defense and an offense with multiple really interesting pieces on it, chief among them Myles Rice and Isaac Jones. I’ll be honest: as someone who lives 30 minutes east of the Central/Eastern Time Zone dividing line I will be watching this on Synergy the next morning.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #68 Belmont at #12 Ohio State (-15.5), 1 PM ET, BTN+. You gotta think on this one. We already covered that Ohio State plays an entertaining style of ball, but the lesser-known Belmont basketball team plays a really unique style that lends itself to upsets. They play the Giant Killer special: uber-slow offensive pace, uber-high free throw attempt rate, lots of three-point attempts and makes. Keep an eye on this one, because if Belmont’s hitting this is going to be really interesting for a long while. Especially since this is OSU’s final game before an 8-day Christmas break.
#100 George Mason at #102 Tulane (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. I mean, this is a day game when you’ve got nothing else to do at your job. Why wouldn’t you give it a shot? Mason put up a stinker of a performance against Loyola (MD) this weekend but has largely acquitted themselves very well thus far. My sell on Tulane is an easy one: #3 in offensive eFG%, #253 in defensive. Every game they play is deeply entertaining. They’ve enjoyed final scores of 91-81, 106-76, 117-110, and 105-81 thus far.
Gasparilla Bowl, Georgia Tech vs. UCF, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. These are two awful defenses and two entertaining-enough offenses. I think that is the entire point of a bowl game: be entertaining.
THREE STARS
#13 Illinois (-8) vs. #81 Missouri, 9 PM ET, FS1. Story time! This offseason, I was looking at games where we could do a little Stats On Location thing. Something where I’m in attendance and offering live observations but also doing some game-specific stats work. This was one that looked promising…and then our family bought Nutcracker tickets (which is my favorite piece of music ever written) for this day in Nashville. Sorry that I will not be in attendance to tell you that Missouri sucks this year and will go 7-11 in SEC play.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23
FIVE STARS
#4 Arizona (-6) vs. #15 Florida Atlantic, 3 PM ET, FOX. Hey, credit to both of these teams for playing some really interesting non-conference games. I still don’t feel as if I am fully sold on either team, but they’re both a blast to watch play basketball. This is #9 (Arizona) vs. #10 (FAU) in eFG%. Vlad Goldin vs. Oumar Ballo is probably the individual matchup of the week for me, two dudes that don’t have an obvious next-level career but are perfect for the college game.
THREE STARS
#36 Mississippi State (-2) at #78 Rutgers, 12 PM ET, BTN. Do not watch this. Do not. I’m telling you right now, from my heart. Do not watch this. You would have a more enjoyable time watching a beheading from the Middle Ages.
#58 Butler at #50 Providence (-4), 12 PM ET, FS1. Providence is going to find it much easier to score on Butler than they will Creighton. I don’t know that I can say that for Butler. The Bulldogs have some amount of shooting but nothing special; they’re pretty heavily reliant on scoring the paint, which Providence has done a great job of taking away from basically every opponent they’ve played. I also just like the coaching battle of Thad vs. Kim, real teacher/prodigy vibes there.
#60 St. John’s at #3 Connecticut (-15), 8 PM ET, FOX. This is largely on here because of the interesting battle between UConn and Christmas break. The second this game ends, this excellent UConn team gets to enjoy a 10-day break from hoops. The main feature St. John’s has as a team right now is that they are unbelievable on the boards, rebounding 44% of their missed shots. When the opponent is UConn, I figure that advantage largely goes out the window. So: when UConn inevitably builds a sizable lead, do they hammer down or let off the gas? The general CBB temptation is the latter, so that’s the curiosity here.
CHRISTMAS EVE
Nothing. There are no college basketball games on Christmas Eve. Thank God. Go enjoy your life…or do the thing I am doing and attend an NFL game involving the Tennessee Titans. On second thought, don’t do the thing I am doing.