Week 7 Watchlist: The Sine Wave Specialists
Lines that go up sometimes come down spectacularly fast
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
Mostly, this prompt is an excuse to post the above song in preparation for the post EVERYONE has been waiting on: my top songs of 2024, which will be delivered next Monday. But after writing the post about the Buy Low and Sell High All-Stars, a couple of which delivered on Saturday:
I am intrigued to chase this from a different angle. Shot variance gets everyone eventually in a 30+ game season, but some teams are better equipped to handle the ups and downs than others. What I’m personally most intrigued by are the teams that are non-stop chaotic no matter what.
There’s a few different ways to measure this. TeamRankings and Haslametrics both have a Consistency metric that more or less measures how well your game-to-game performance correlates. The more consistent you are the more towards zero your overall rating will be and vice-versa. Some teams will be pretty consistent in performance, as Auburn has been:
And some are truly all over the place, like Ohio State.
For TeamRankings, they single out Oakland as the nation’s most chaotic team this year. I can envision it. Oakland owns a win over Toledo on the road by 33, a tough-but-competitive road loss to a top-20 Illinois team, and also losses to Eastern Michigan and Youngstown State in which they got demolished on the defensive end. Their sine wave is pretty wonky, certainly.
Haslametrics has Charlotte among their top group, which I can see the rationale for. The 49ers have Game Scores at Torvik of 4/100, 9/100, and 86/100 all in the same two-week span. Pretty hard thing to achieve, particularly when the last of those was despite shooting 2-14 from three! Sometimes you can do very wacky things in this world without the help of three-point shooting.
But: what about the teams that are true agents of chaos? The teams that could hit 3 or 15 threes on any given night? This year’s award winner through the first six weeks of college basketball, surprisingly, is Minnesota. Check this nutty stuff out:
The Golden Gophers have had some horrific shooting performances. Five times this season, they’ve made 20% or fewer of their three-point attempts (min. 15 attempts). This has included such upsetting outings as a 3-17 versus Nebraska Omaha, 3-18 versus Wake Forest, and worst, a 3-23 against Wichita State in an overtime loss. At the same time, they’ve also shot 11-18 against Oral Roberts and 11-23 against Bethune-Cookman. This one doesn’t count because the 3PT% wasn’t high enough, but also, they shot 10-27 versus CMU. No other team in America has as many games (7) as Minnesota where they’ve shot worse than 20% or better than 45%.
Usually, these teams even themselves out over the course of a year. I can remember a Tennessee team in recent memory (2021-22) that either shot <26% or >41% in all of its first ten games, then proceeded to have a bunch of games in the 30-45% range the rest of the way. This may end up being nothing at all, too; perhaps Minnesota is more boring than they look. Until then, you have a reason to watch Minnesota basketball this year. What if they shoot 12-22 from deep against Purdue on January 2? They could! They also may shoot 4-22. We have no idea, which makes them a delight.
Anyway, here is the Watchlist. As a reminder, we have a new scoring system this year to simplify things a bit. The A/B/C scale is here.
A GAMES are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ GAME every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
B GAMES are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
C GAMES are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
We hope to never get to D or F GAMES this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All D2/D3/NAIA lines are from Massey Ratings. NEW! All lines for women’s games are via Bart Torvik. Watchlists are always free, so subscribe here to avoid missing one.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 16
A GAME
Not a one. Welcome to the dull days of the season. There’s a MNF doubleheader featuring exactly one good team!
B GAME
NAIA: #7 Montana Tech at #5 Arizona Christian (-1.5), 7 PM ET, streaming. A fun part of the newsletter is stretching as far as I can to find watchable basketball, which is how we end up with a December Monday where the best game is an NAIA one streamed only on a team’s YouTube channel. But hey, these are two legitimate NAIA title contenders. Will former Montana Tech head coach Kelvin Sampson (1981-1985) be watching his Orediggers? I hope so.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #79 UTSA at #29 Stanford (-13.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Tough game here for a solid UTSA squad, but as a star-versus-star matchup this is actually a good midday game. UTSA’s Jordyn Jenkins has a 41.8 PER (!), a +13.7 BPM, and a 125 ORtg on 28% USG; Stanford’s Nunu Agara is experiencing The Leap and is currently shooting 56% 2PT/42% 3PT with monster offensive efficiency.
NCAAW: #83 Montana State at #72 FGCU (-3.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. This seems like a pretty dry game offensively, which is a bummer, but these are the two favorites in their respective conferences for March bids.
#92 Grand Canyon at #102 Louisiana Tech (-2), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. The official Key Jingling Team of the offseason, Grand Canyon, appears to be fading a bit because the Mario Double Jump never happens at their level of hoop. Alas. I can’t yet tell how I feel on Louisiana Tech; I’ve been a bit disappointed that they seem to have almost no depth on what I thought was a very good roster.
#192 Montana at #106 Northern Iowa (-9), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. A fun stoppable force versus moveable object game: Travis McCuire is 21-33-1 ATS/11-44 overall as a road dog since 2017, but Northern Iowa is shooting 41.4% from three and is due for serious regression offensively.
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 17
A GAMES
#7 Florida (-3) vs. #28 North Carolina, 7 PM ET, ESPN. Normally there’s various ways and means of analyzing a certain matchup. This one’s more throwing my hands up and saying This Is Fun. It is. I think we have an idea of how good Florida probably is but given a fairly light schedule thus far, I’m not sure we really know. UNC’s the best team they’ve played and the first live offense they’ve played all season, which should shed some light on just how improved Florida’s defense (which looks way better than ‘23-24) really is. This feels like a marquee matchup and should be treated as such, so hopefully it’s marketed well.
Bucks vs. Thunder, 8:30 PM ET, ABC. Sue me, I like the NBA Cup and think it’s pretty cool. I am a person who understands the objective truth that the NBA is a much more friendly product on the eyes and feels that the regular season is borderline pointless. (This is mostly driven by my team of choice being the Pistons.) I like that this exists and it gives me a reason to watch when I otherwise would skip.
NCAAW: #30 Michigan vs. #14 Oklahoma (-5), 9:30 PM ET, ESPN2. This is night one of a doubleheader between these two teams, which is taking place on a soundstage in Burbank in Charlotte for reasons. I think most people are aware that Oklahoma is quite good and will hang around in the SEC race but Michigan’s freshman trio of Syla Swords (54% 2PT/37% 3PT, 16.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG), Olivia Olson (16.9 PPG), and Mila Holloway is one of those special ones that only comes around so often. See them now before the word gets out.
B GAMES
#27 Clemson (-2) at #68 South Carolina, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Clemson has had a pretty good non-conference slate and doesn’t need this one, so this is a pure spite game for them. South Carolina, on the other hand:
Better win this game if you want any chance of another Tournament bid that doesn’t require conference tournament magic, fellas, because SEC play is going to eat teams like South Carolina alive.
NCAAW: #2 UConn (-15.5) vs. #35 Iowa State, 7:30 PM ET, FS1. Something’s happened with Iowa State between last season and now that’s got them looking more like NIT material than a Big 12 title contender. I’d like to find out what that is before it’s too late.
#73 Drake vs. #69 Kansas State (-2), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. K-State has elected to do a Humiliation Tour this week of a pair of Midwest mid-majors that are possibly straight-up better than them, with this one first and a game at (?!?!?!?) Wichita State on Saturday. This KSU team is a deeply putrid watch, so naturally, this will be the week Jerome Tang pulls two overtime wins out of thin air.
#88 UC San Diego at #46 Utah State (-9), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. I’d like to say the following: good for UC San Diego. They were in Division 2 all of five years ago; now they’re a top-100 team in America. That’s pretty awesome, particularly when your first year of D1 ball was the COVID season. UCSD has a +11 turnover margin per 100 possessions, which will be fun when playing a Utah State team that sits at +5.9 along with a gigantic edge on the boards. Fun little game.
C GAMES
#89 DePaul at #15 St. John’s (-13), 5:30 PM ET, Peacock. DePaul has looked remarkably competent and soundly-coached for the first six weeks. This is not a statement in support of a shock upset here, just noting something that has not happened in years.
NCAAW: #9 LSU (-13.5) vs. #63 Seton Hall, 6 PM ET, FS1. This is yet another year where we kinda know how good LSU is but might not really know because Kim Mulkey’s non-conference schedules suck. This is their fifth game against a top-100 opponent; they’re 4-0 but with an average scoring margin of +9.5.
#315 Western Carolina at #2 Tennessee (-34), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I have this on here for exactly one reason: how nasty could this get?
#80 George Mason at #3 Duke (-17), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. George Mason is pretty high on the list of what I’d call the Extremely Competent Mid-Majors: teams that don’t really have an identifiable talent edge or noticeable stats edge but just seem very well-coached. Usually, top-5 opponents beat these teams by exactly 20 points, but you never know.
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 18
A GAME
None. Sorry. Can’t artificially elevate a pretty good game to great!
B GAMES
NCAAW: #62 Florida vs. #17 North Carolina (-10), 6:30 PM ET, ESPNU. Part of the WBB/MBB doubleheader in Charlotte. No one believes it now, but at one point in history Florida WBB was a very proud program. For a brief period in the late 1990s they were arguably Tennessee’s main competition in the SEC! Now, they badly need a Tournament bid, which probably requires a win here to get back on track for such.
#56 San Francisco at #75 Bradley (-2), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Bradley’s mondo 3PT regression (currently outshooting opponents +14.8% from deep) is still coming and already happened some versus Santa Clara, but until then, this is a great chance to add a signature-ish home win to their belt.
#42 VCU (-1) at #70 New Mexico, 9 PM ET, MWN. VCU has a very odd resume: tremendous metrics (average of #43 among BPI/KP/Torvik) but an 0-1 record against Q1/Q2 opposition and a Q3 loss. What makes this weirder is the Q3 loss being Seton Hall. None of the hopeful big wins (Boston College, Miami, Colorado State) have turned out to be very useful. Kinda makes this a must-win if they want an at-large resume they can feel good about?
#22 Michigan (-3) vs. #37 Oklahoma, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Boy, do I love a Regression Monster Game. Oklahoma’s opponents are shooting 28.6% from deep and 67% from the line, which I guess I’d be more interested in if Oklahoma’s opponents weren’t also shooting 52% from two. This is versus the 315th-ranked schedule, by the way. Now, given how STUPID Michigan made me look last week, I look forward to Oklahoma 79, Michigan 76.
C GAMES
#41 Creighton (-3) at #85 Georgetown, 6:30 PM ET, CBSSN. No clue here, man. Either Creighton gets off the mat or Georgetown continues progressing forward in reasonable fashion.
#33 Memphis (-4) at #100 Virginia, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Look, would there be any more Penny Hardaway loss than this one? The answer is yes: a home loss to Rice later this year. FWIW Penny’s 8-14-1 ATS as a road fave post-COVID.
#60 Xavier at #12 UConn (-10), 7 PM ET, FS1. Feels like whenever this exact UConn game happens every year it results in something like UConn 89-65 in a game that somehow isn’t even that close. We shall see.
NCAAW: #24 Tennessee (-22.5) at #168 Memphis, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN News. Tennessee set the Division I three-point record on Saturday by dumping 30 made threes on poor NC Central in one of the worst mismatches I’ve ever seen. That won’t happen twice but I’m always intrigued when legitimately good teams play weird in-state road games like this. It’s like when Bruce Pearl gets the wild idea to play at North Alabama or similar.
#74 Butler at #9 Marquette (-13), 9 PM ET, FS1. This is a nasty spot for Butler. First: as a road dog in the Thad Era they’re 5-11 ATS. Second: when Marquette’s off a loss of any kind the last three years they’re 13-3 ATS. This might be a demolition.
#71 Washington State at #101 Washington (-1), 11 PM ET, FS1. It’s a rivalry game and it’s on. Also: Washington State is 9-2 and has +0.7 Wins Above Bubble with a road win over Nevada. A win here and…they kind of have a temporary inside lane on at-large status?
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 19
A GAME
I told you it’s the doldrums.
B GAMES
NCAAW, D2: #3 Concordia at #5 Minnesota Mankato, 6:30 PM ET, streaming. Simple sell here: this is the defending national champ hosting a top-3 team in the sport. Mankato has the single most exciting offensive style of basketball in D2 WBB but Concordia might have a top-5 defense.
D3: #7 Washington St. Louis at #15 Illinois Wesleyan, 8 PM ET, streaming. Two excellent defenses and one great offense. WashU’s Drake Kindsvater is a legitimate Guy You Should Know and is tracking for D3 All-American status.
#61 UC Irvine (-5) at #133 Belmont, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Who could turn down a true home environment between two of the premier mid-major programs of the last 15 years? Certainly not me. I have an article coming this week on UCI’s extremely well-organized defense, hopefully.
Broncos at Chargers, 8:15 PM ET, Prime Video. Well, it’s pretty huge for the playoff race and I’m somewhat less annoyed by the Broncos existing than I was the last two seasons.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #70 James Madison at #16 NC State (-14.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is JMU’s third shot at a top-20 team; the first two ended in 92-46 (Notre Dame) and 93-62 (Texas) losses. Hopefully this one is more competitive.
#97 Lipscomb at #141 MTSU (-1), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. In-state game that matters for both.
#260 SIUE at #217 Little Rock (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. As of now, this is a matchup of the two best teams in the Ohio Valley, and it’s each team’s season-opening conference game. I can’t be mad at that, even if this is eventually for the right to a First Four bid.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20
A GAMES
NCAAW: #18 Alabama (-1) vs. #25 Michigan State, 4:30 PM ET, BallerTV. Huge swing and a miss involved on the part of every school involved in the mini-tournament this game is included in. BallerTV for a game involving one of the last undefeated teams and top-20 Alabama? Great chess match here between two roughly equal teams. MSU will attack their expected advantage through the post early and often, and this could be a huge game for Grace VanSlooten…unless Alabama’s superior mobility in P&R with Zaay Green and Sarah Ashlee Barker causes too many defensive issues. I love this matchup that few can even watch.
#26 Dayton ‘at’ #23 Cincinnati (-2), 8:30 PM ET, ESPNU. Yet again, a neutral-site game being played in a city where one of the teams resides. Who knows why they do these things. I love games like these where it’s strength-versus-strength: Dayton’s top-10 offense versus Cincy’s top-10 defense, Cincy’s monstrous edge on the boards versus Dayton’s elite defensive rebounding, two excellent shooting teams versus either a great defense or regression to the mean.
NCAAW: #8 Ohio State (-7.5) vs. #29 Stanford, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. In the event you cannot watch Bama/MSU this is a great equal. I talked about Stanford earlier but Ohio State’s starting five has been just spectacular. Look at these numbers!
This makes it beyond crucial for a Stanford team that’s shot it really well but hasn’t garnered a ton of gravity at the rim to get at least one of these ladies in foul trouble.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #39 Richmond vs. #24 Tennessee (-5), 2:15 PM ET, BallerTV. I mean, we have got to get these services out of college basketball immediately. What is the point of any of these? Why do they exist, beyond making money for people who don’t need it? I feel this exact same way about the myriad bowl game sponsors that shouldn’t exist. Maybe next year we’ll put top-25 versus top-25 games on a service you can only view after purchasing $99 in HawkCoin.
#14 St. John’s (-5) at #79 Providence, 8 PM ET, FOX. With a neutral-site loss to the Bonnies on Saturday, Providence now sits at -1.9 WAB as conference play begins. I would absolutely describe this stretch as involving at least one must-win game.
D2: #4 Minot State at #6 Moorhead State (-1.5), 8:30 PM ET, streaming. This is a D2 battle of the titans. Both Minot and Moorhead have eyes on the D2 title this year. Minot has an out-and-out star among their ranks in Australian Caleb Van De Griend, who has been a monster: 17.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.2 BPG, all on 76% 2PT (!) and the number one in most all-in metrics (WARP, WS, etc.) for D2 this year. By the way, for people who like to know these things, he’s a junior with another year of eligibility.
NCAAW: #28 Creighton vs. #6 UCLA (-12), 11 PM ET, FS1. Highly impressed by both of these teams this year. UCLA does look like a real title contender; Creighton maybe more a Sweet Sixteen contender but that still matters. I don’t know how Creighton slows down Lauren Betts at all here but I’m still intrigued to watch.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #48 Belmont at #42 Kentucky (-3.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Metrics-based sites don’t believe in UK just yet, which is a pretty interesting thing to note. How much that matters for SEC play we’ll see.
#135 Akron vs. #99 Yale (-3), 7 PM ET, ?. Why they’re playing this otherwise interesting game in El Paso with no confirmed broadcast information I’ll never know.
NCAAW: #68 Northern Iowa at #20 Iowa (-14), 7:30 PM ET, BTN+. Northern Iowa can complete the Iowa Sweep with a win here after defeating Iowa State back in November.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 21
A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #7 USC at #2 UConn (-8), 8 PM ET, FOX. This is such an easy pick to me that requires oddly little explanation. It’s JuJu Watkins playing against Paige Bueckers. That alone elevates this above any other option you have available this week. I’m patiently waiting to see if USC can encourage a couple breakthroughs: Talia von Oelhoffen, who’s struggled to find her spots this year, and a breakthrough against UConn’s Sarah Strong, who has looked suspiciously flawless as a freshman. God bless women’s basketball for ensuring games like this are happening almost every week.
A GAMES
#13 UCLA (-2) vs. #28 North Carolina, 3 PM ET, CBS. I wrote about my newly (and possibly poorly, of course)-developed Schedule Adjusted Shot Volume Index on Friday (linked earlier in this post), which I’m only bringing up because it has UCLA #22 and North Carolina #23. I hope that’s accurate because if so we’re gonna get overtime. I love overtime when it’s not the potentially looming overtime of an awful Illinois/Tennessee fixture.
Steelers at Ravens, 4:30 PM ET, FOX. Everyone is aware of my Lions fandom but I am also a Lamar Jackson superfan. I went to the Music City Bowl in 2015 with Best Friend of the Substack Matt and Lamar ran for 200+ yards against an overwhelmed Texas A&M team. The next year I went with another friend to a Louisville game to watch Lamar run wild on NC State. I genuinely, truly adore everything he does on a football field and will hear no criticism of him. If the Super Bowl ends up being Ravens/Lions I may be in a hospital for two weeks.
B GAMES
#9 Marquette (-4) at #60 Xavier, 12 PM ET, FOX. This Xavier team has frankly sucked big time all year long, but I feel like all that means is this is the time they suddenly pull out a big win out of nowhere. Then again, Shaka has a very good record as a road fave, so this could be exactly what it says it is: yet another whiff for Xavier.
#12 UConn (-6) at #74 Butler, 12 PM ET, Peacock. I’m not sure if it’s NIL, roster philosophy, or both, but this Thad Matta era at Butler is looking like an 0-for-3 in Tournament bids. I don’t think they’re even as good as #74 suggests, and their record as an underdog under Thad is horrific. Man, this could be a great KenPom week for UConn, huh?
#30 Mississippi State at #34 Memphis (-2), 12:30 PM ET, CBS. I’m patiently waiting for Memphis’s 3PT% (44.3%) to finally regress to the mean a bit, but until then we should take them seriously. They’re a Tournament team that has an elite scorer in PJ Haggerty, several quality role pieces, and - for once - actually appear invested in every game they play. Maybe Penny HAS turned a corner. Maybe he’s waiting until now to make me look like a fool.
#51 Villanova at #41 Creighton (-5), 4 PM ET, FS1. If Creighton can get to 2-0 this week, I think it erases some amount of their non-con struggles that came about via various reasons of injury and whatnot. If Villanova - quietly 7-4! - starts off the year 2-0 in Big East play, they’re about to be a fascinating case.
#21 Purdue vs. #1 Auburn (-11), 4:30 PM ET, ESPN. I don’t think Auburn is as flawless as they’ve looked, just because no one ever is. But I also think they might demolish Purdue here given a monstrous edge in shot volume. I’m openly rooting for a huge 3PT% variance game in Purdue’s favor here to make Auburn look even 1% vulnerable.
NCAAW: #37 Iowa State at #38 Oklahoma State (-2), 5 PM ET, ESPN2. Oklahoma State is 9-1 with their only loss being Quad 1 to Richmond, but they’ve also played a putrid non-con schedule which means their third truly competitive game of the year will be this one. Interested to see how that compares to Iowa State, who’s played some very tough teams thus far.
NCAAW: #35 Nebraska at #19 Georgia Tech (-7.5), 5:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Georgia Tech is 11-0 and has looked genuinely fantastic thus far. Per Torvik’s in-season ratings they’ve played like the 13th-best team in America, which is a gigantic step forward for a program with two Sweet Sixteen appearances in its history.
#36 Ohio State vs. #11 Kentucky (-5), 5:30 PM ET, CBS. A huge, huge congratulations to everyone who fell for it.
Doing this while Michigan hires Dusty May is deeply funny, I must admit. By the way, the guy who hired Jake Diebler is who Ohio State fans think will fire Ryan Day to hire Mike Vrabel. I’m sure, fellas, I’m sure.
#63 Utah vs. #45 Iowa (-3), 6 PM ET, BTN. No major commentary here: this is a very fun game between two flamethrowers that probably won’t make the Tournament but will provide some fun moments.
C GAMES
#114 Princeton vs. #76 Rutgers (-4), 12 PM ET, FS1. Princeton has yet to look like I’d hoped they would, but it would be really, really funny if they won this game.
NCAAW: #11 Duke (-12) at #71 South Florida, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. Duke looks like a serious Final Four contender; South Florida is more frisky than good but could provide some resistance here.
#3 Duke (-15) at #110 Georgia Tech, 12 PM ET, ACC Network. FWIW, there’s statistical indicators that point to GA Tech being a top-100 team and not this bad, but it may not matter when you’re playing a Duke team this good.
NCAAW: #18 Alabama (-5.5) vs. #39 Richmond, 1:15 PM ET, BallerTV. Exciting 3PT% regression game here: Richmond has a +11.5% 3PT delta, while Alabama is merely at +7.2%.
#58 Louisville at #65 Florida State (-2), 2 PM ET, The CW. Credit to FSU, who is significantly less awful than I anticipated they would be. I still don’t think of them as top-65 and therefore on the Tournament fringe, but they’re not abject in the way Boston College is. Perhaps Leonard Hamilton can go out on reasonable enough terms.
NCAAW: #51 St. John’s at #65 Villanova (-0.5), 2 PM ET, Flo Sports. Conference game between two teams that are on the Tournament fringe, so Louisville/FSU but Big East.
#93 FAU at #17 Michigan State (-12), 2 PM ET, FS1. Odd but true stat: since COVID, Michigan State has been a double-digit home favorite 32 times. They’re 30-2 in these games but have won by exactly 18 points five times. No other scoring margin has happened more than twice.
#105 Northern Iowa vs. #71 Washington State (-2), 4 PM ET, Flo Sports. I do think that everyone involved with the creation of Flo Sports should be jailed. Unless they give me a free subscription, upon which I will change my tune.
NCAAW: #59 Arizona at #72 BYU (-0.5), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. This is actually a pretty big game for BYU: at 9-2 and neutral on WAB, a win here helps their Tournament resume nicely. Delaney Gibb for BYU rocks.
#109 Colorado State at #47 Nevada (-10), 5 PM ET, MWN. The magic seems to be running thin for Colorado State, who has really struggled to begin this season and sorely needs a big win of any kind.
NCAAW: #21 Baylor (-6) at #60 Kansas, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Kansas actually has a terrific resume (+1.3 WAB), albeit weak metrics thanks to close wins. But! They do have the best player in this game in S’Mya Nichols, an absolute star of a point guard who hasn’t gotten enough hype yet.
#69 Kansas State at #98 Wichita State (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. KSU’s Humiliation Tour concludes with a game that, if lost, would cap perhaps the lowest-vibes 0-2 week imaginable for a program built entirely on vibes.
#19 Oregon (-6) vs. #83 Stanford, 8 PM ET, BTN. Just play a true road game, you freaks. San Jose? On purpose?
NCAAW: #9 West Virginia (-11.5) at #66 Colorado, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This West Virginia team is awesome and disgusting on defense. I pray they and Tennessee meet up at some point in the Tournament, because it would be bloody and brutal.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 22
A GAME
#46 Utah State at #33 Saint Mary’s (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. The Utah State Incubator versus the Saint Mary’s Standard. An evening spent with two of the greatest mid-major programs out there, and what kind of prude could say no to that? You’ll get all the classics here, such as Utah State’s Incredible Offensive Rebounding, Saint Mary’s P&R Defense, and Three-Point Variance. Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez are USU’s stars but I think more attention should be paid to Karson Templin, who has rocked in limited minutes. For SMC: pay attention to freshman bench guard Mikey Lewis. He might swing this game.
B GAMES
#16 Illinois (-5) vs. #49 Missouri, 1 PM ET, ESPN. Folks! It’s time for a Buy Low Opportunity. Were you…annoyed by Illinois losing that game? Frightened? Scared? Wondering why no one stopped Jordan Gainey en route to the rim? Well, a team that won’t be ranked in the AP Top 25 by Goofus and/or Gallant is 16th at KenPom and 10th in the WW SA-SVI. (Kate Bush voice) Don’t give up!
NCAAW: #43 South Dakota State at #4 Texas (-20.5), 1 PM ET, SECN+. If you doubt Aaron Johnston and crew’s ability to hang in this game, let me note that there’s some genuinely very impressive performances put to paper so far:
#54 Nebraska (-5) vs. #103 Murray State, 9 PM ET, ESPN. The Diamond Head Classic starts on Sunday. This is not a commentary or a request to watch. Just letting you know.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #75 Cincinnati at #5 Kansas State (-24.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Cincinnati is very scrappy and has some monstrous shot volume metrics:
But this has come against the 297th-ranked strength of schedule in the sport, so perhaps this is all fluff. We’ll find out here.
#64 Oregon State (-7) vs. #136 Charleston, 3 PM ET, ESPNU. Well, it’s on.